TL-191: The fate of Britain post-SGW

[bguy]

*Though that would probably be a hard sell to the US Congress and, for that matter, to Herbert Hoover (especially if a Russian declaration of war on Japan were out of the question); I can see an FDR having the audacity & stick-with-it ruthlessness to pull that sort of thing off, but not HH (Still, pulling Russia out of the Entente orbit, however briefly, would be something of a coup - especially if such an accommodation were only the thin end of a wedge; on the other hand a US/Russia rapprochement might well give Germany night terrors to such a degree that the Kaiser's men would seriously consider an alignment with the British Empire).

It's kind of a shame HT didn't go with this actually. An interbellum diplomatic realignment that sees the US, Russia, France (and maybe China) come together against Germany, the UK, the CSA, and Japan could have made for a much more even (and thus) interesting Second Great War than having the exact same alliances from the FGW go at it again.

 

[MaxGerke01]

It's kind of a shame HT didn't go with this actually. An interbellum diplomatic realignment that sees the US, Russia, France (and maybe China) come together against Germany, the UK, the CSA, and Japan could have made for a much more even (and thus) interesting Second Great War than having the exact same alliances from the FGW go at it again.

What do those 2 groups of nations share in common as far as goals go ? Especially Germany and the UK ? To me Germany and the US want so much of the same things that they would never really be seriously at odds. Same for the UK and CSA if their side had won.

 

[MaxGerke01]

From the US perspective Great Britain fought to stop the US from forming from the get go,fought to destroy it in 1812,actually partially destroyed it in 1862 by recognizing the CSA,took another piece in 1882,caused the USA more blood and treasure in the Great War and helped the CSA get the superbomb that hit Philadelphia in the Second Great War.There is basically nothing there that would allow the 2 to get back together except the death of most people who have living memories of all those events so 1975 at the earliest and possibly later.

 

[Tiro]

What do those 2 groups of nations share in common as far as goals go ? Especially Germany and the UK ? To me Germany and the US want so much of the same things that they would never really be seriously at odds. Same for the UK and CSA if their side had won.

If I remember correctly there was actually a diplomatic crisis during the Interbellum years where Germany tried to acquire the land necessary to construct a canal between the Caribbean & the Pacific - the United States, unsurprisingly, objected.

So there are obviously tensions between Germany’s desire for “A place in the sun” and the United State’s Monroe Doctrine that could potentially end their alliance, given a few different choices - especially given that both Germany & the USA appear to have seriously neglected that alliance between the wars.

If nothing else a diplomatic rapprochement between Great Britain & Germany would mean that the latter gains a free hand in Europe while the former gets to concentrate on preserving the Empire (and making chances to reacquire lost possessions) against both the US & increasingly ‘uppity’ Japan; it also means that both GB & Germany have a much, much stronger ally than sadly-diminished France or rickety Austria-Hungary.

Conversely, the United States and Russia both have a history of rivalry with Great Britain (and, one suspects, a history of tensions with Japan); an alignment between the two of them for the purposes of settling accounts with “John Bull of Europe & John Bull of Asia” might suit both of them very well - especially since Russia and the United States seem to have made a point of avoiding war between them (Probably because they had much bigger headaches elsewhere).

The only problem is that an alignment between the US & Russia would likely strengthen the latter (via investments & technology transfer), which is something Germany DOES NOT WANT - to the point where I could easily imagine a ‘break point’ where the German government has to choose between two potentially advantageous alignments (One between the Reich & the British Empire, one between the US & Germany) triggered by a deal worked out between the Bear & the Eagle.

As for France, I’d be astonished if she had not turned to the CSA only AFTER making efforts to ‘turn’ the USA (Probably playing on the old alliance between Royal France & the USA and mutual concerns that both Germany & Great Britain were getting too **** uppity).

The only problem is that France isn’t what she was and everybody knows it.

So to sum up: Germany only made an alliance with the USA in the first place to keep Britain from landing on her with both feet while Germany was also obliged to fight France & Russia - with Great Britain an ally, that concern is removed AND Germany gains an ally in the European theatre, rather than an ocean away - meanwhile Great Britain replaces a failed Entente with a new, arguably stronger power bloc that will allow her to keep trouble MUCH farther from Home.

Also, I’m reasonably confident that being allowed to beat up the King of France was a life goal of Winston Spencer Churchill (That being the “family business” back in the day); the chance to do just that would probably add years to his life.

 

[Tiro]

From the US perspective Great Britain fought to stop the US from forming from the get go,fought to destroy it in 1812,actually partially destroyed it in 1862 by recognizing the CSA,took another piece in 1882,caused the USA more blood and treasure in the Great War and helped the CSA get the superbomb that hit Philadelphia in the Second Great War.There is basically nothing there that would allow the 2 to get back together except the death of most people who have living memories of all those events so 1975 at the earliest and possibly later.

On the other hand Great Britain has been comprehensively slapped down no less than twice in living memory and the last relic of the British Empire is more pitiable than contemptible; given that a rapprochement with the British Empire & the Dominions (Especially Australia & New Zealand) would also help keep Japan within bounds without requiring the USA to fight for bases in the Pacific, I can see at least some grounds for an alliance of convenience (Though probably not a reconciliation, except in the Long term).

 

[World Mapping]

It's kind of a shame HT didn't go with this actually. An interbellum diplomatic realignment that sees the US, Russia, France (and maybe China) come together against Germany, the UK, the CSA, and Japan could have made for a much more even (and thus) interesting Second Great War than having the exact same alliances from the FGW go at it again.

I agree. It's a good TL idea, though rn I am working on two timelines, so maybe I can make a timeline regarding this later, idk.

 

[World Mapping]

I agree. It's a good TL idea, though rn I am working on two timelines, so maybe I can make a timeline regarding this later, idk.

So, alternate GW2.

Central Powers:
- German Empire
- British Empire
- Confederate States of America

Entente Powers:
- Actionist France
- Russian Empire
- United States

Unsure: Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, Bulgaria

 

[World Mapping]

So, alternate GW2.

Central Powers:
- German Empire
- British Empire
- Confederate States of America

Entente Powers:
- Actionist France
- Russian Empire
- United States

Unsure: Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, Bulgaria

The CSA fighting a two-front war with the Yanks and Mexicans (because Mexico was a French protectorate)?

This conflict would be interesting. Maybe we get an Alaska purchase, too.

 

[World Mapping]

The CSA fighting a two-front war with the Yanks and Mexicans (because Mexico was a French protectorate)?

This conflict would be interesting. Maybe we get an Alaska purchase, too.

Central Powers:
- German Empire
- British Empire
- Confederate States of America
- Empire of Japan
- Ottoman Empire

Entente Powers:
- Russian Empire
- United States of America
- Actionist France
- Second Mexican Empire

Unsure: Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria

 

[Tiro]

The CSA fighting a two-front war with the Yanks and Mexicans (because Mexico was a French protectorate)?

This conflict would be interesting. Maybe we get an Alaska purchase, too.

Actually the Empire of Mexico stopped being a French client after the Franco-Prussian War (and started being the CSA’s ‘ethnic sidekick’ with the purchase of AD 1881 that started the Second Mexican War); in fact I suspect that the threat of a two-front war might be one of the few things that would keep Featherston from launching BLACKBEARD - he’s a monomaniac, but not a complete lunatic.

Concerning the Dual Monarchy, I would suggest making them a neutral - a nod to the Emperor Karl advocating an Armistice in our own history, but also to the fact that Austria-Hungary is unlikely to be much better off after ‘winning’ the Great War (In fact I’m a little sorry Mr Turtledove made the European warm-up to the Second Great War a Spanish Civil War rather than, say, a ‘War of the Danubian Secessions’ or some other Habsburg Crisis (Since Austria-Hungary going to pieces despite Germany’s preference that granny quiet down & give her some peace would be an excellent idea way to show the Reich over-stretched & unenthusiastic for a Second Great War).*

*One imagines the German Reich would secure a buffer state in Central Europe, but decline to stick it’s beak into the Balkans (Possibly leaving Italy to reignite it’s feud with Austria-Hungary or some part thereof).

 

[David bar Elias]

What do y'all recon would be the fate of Britain post-SGW, having lost another war to the CP's, and got 3 cities nuked?

Great Britain is in a terrible position in 1944. The defeat in the Second Great War will probably be accompanied in the first postwar years by economic collapse and social upheaval.

I think that these would be among the possible developments for Britain following the end of the SGW.

-The fall of the Churchill-Mosley regime would lead to a long period of political dominance by the Labour Party, one of the only major political factions that can’t be linked to the disastrous outcome of the SGW. The Conservative Party could survive in a truncated form for sometime, but likely wouldn’t return to power for a long time to come, if ever. The Silver Shirts will collapse with the loss of Mosley and with the loss of a powerful, mainstream ally that was the Conservative Party.

-Ireland will regain its independence, after what I presume was a devastating British military occupation. In the continuation that I wrote, Ireland joins a US-led military alliance, and goes on to host permanent US military bases.

-The British defeat in the SGW will probably be compounded by a national economic collapse, as the government and the country’s business leadership is thrown into chaos by the abrupt loss of London, as well as by the sudden halt and rapid downsizing of wartime industries. A long economic recession after the end of the SGW, along with the postwar government’s probable policies of austerity, will be a push factor in driving high levels of emigration from Britain during the first postwar generation. Another push factor in postwar emigration from Britain would be the fear of Germany’s superbomb arsenal.


-The German Empire and the USA will not be merciful to the defeated Entente powers. Both countries were on the receiving end of acts of aggression at the beginning of the European and North American theaters of the SGW.

The USA and Germany will not seek to end Britain’s sovereign independence. But both Washington and Berlin will probably seek an end to the British Empire as any kind of rival/threat. The USA and the German Empire will split most of the former British Empire between themselves; the USA will take possession of any remaining British territories in the Caribbean and Pacific, while the Germans will take most remaining British colonies in Africa. Both Washington and Berlin will probably force Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa to sever their political ties with the British crown.

By the end of the war, of course, the British have probably already also lost Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and Burma to the Japanese Empire.

-King Edward VIII may abdicate at the end of the war, but the monarchy as an institution will survive. The British public is far more likely to blame the former ruling government, rather than the royal family, for the disastrous outcome of the SGW.

-In the long run, Great Britain will recover economically from the calamitous years of the Business Collapse, SGW, and immediate postwar period. But, along with France, it will be a recovery within a European alliance system/political arrangement established by the German Empire and Austro-Hungarian Empire.

 

[Whiteshore]

-King Edward VIII may abdicate at the end of the war, but the monarchy as an institution will survive. The British public is far more likely to blame the former ruling government, rather than the royal family, for the disastrous outcome of the SGW.

What would prevent something like Italy where the monarchy is blamed by the ascendant left for the regime owing to Edward VIII's support for the regime?

 

[David bar Elias]

What would prevent something like Italy where the monarchy is blamed by the ascendant left for the regime owing to Edward VIII's support for the regime?

I would argue that the monarchy in Britain is far more established as an institution than it was in the former Kingdom of Italy IOTL. Even if King Edward VIII is permanently tarnished by his past public sympathies for the former regime, that doesn’t necessarily mean that his personal unpopularity would translate to other members of the royal family who kept largely out of public life during the former regime.

I also don’t think that the leaders of a left-wing political alignment in postwar Britain would seek an end to the monarchy.

 

[Whiteshore]

I would argue that the monarchy in Britain is far more established as an institution than it was in the former Kingdom of Italy IOTL. Even if King Edward VIII is permanently tarnished by his past public sympathies for the former regime, that doesn’t necessarily mean that his personal unpopularity would translate to other members of the royal family who kept largely out of public life during the former regime.

I also don’t think that the leaders of a left-wing political alignment in postwar Britain would seek an end to the monarchy.

I mean, Victor Emmanuel III abdicating didn't save the Italian monarchy and the Tory-Silver Shirt coalition's authoritarianism and Edward VIII's enabling of said regime might have radicalized the British left.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

Central Powers:
- German Empire
- British Empire
- Confederate States of America
- Empire of Japan
- Ottoman Empire

Entente Powers:
- Russian Empire
- United States of America
- Actionist France
- Second Mexican Empire

Unsure: Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria

I agree that a shakeup of alliances in the interbellum era would have made things more interesting. Have some of the CP-aligned countries feel cheated out of what they wanted and either join the Entente or form a new alliance with some Entente members like Italy and Japan OTL. Speaking of Italy, have them get involved in both Great Wars since there really wasn't a reason not to ITTL in the first place. Secondly, you could have some of the defeated Entente members from the First Great War sit out the second one such as Turkey IOTL. Additionally, you could start to see the fragmentation of the CSA and have each state decide which alliance they'd like to be part of or have some Entente members in the SGW switch sides before the war is over a la Italy or Romania OTL.

 

[Tresckow]

Just a quick question and might've missed it, but what part of London was hit by the superbomb?

 

[Polish Eagle]

Ah! One key question facing Timeline-191 after the Second Great War is just how willing the United States will be to do business with the British Empire as the price of giving Japan a seriously good kicking (Also, how far the USA is willing to push things in the Pacific right after being worked over back home); I'd bet cash money that a major reason for the Blackford & Hoover Administration's failure to land a telling blow during the Pacific War of the 1920s (Arguably a crucial precondition for the South to think it has a snowball's chance in Hell against the Northern Colossus) is that the British Empire & Dominions very politely insisted on their neutrality in the conflict (and quite possibly employed that neutrality with malice aforethought to make life as difficult as possible for the USA).

While the US does have some bases in the Pacific, they're mostly a long way from the Western shores of that ocean (and, if memory serves, almost all the powers who could put the US Navy in a better position for a telling blow are former members of the Entente; while Russia probably bears no grudges, they don't really owe the US - especially a Socialist Administration - any favours; the British Empire most assuredly does bear a grudge; the Japanese are, of course, hostile; the only major neutral in the area is the Netherlands, who might support the US against the Japanese as a way of taking the wind out of their most aggressive neighbour's sails, but who might also prefer not to attract the hostile attention of the Japanese and risking the British Empire's displeasure*).

*Some have suggested that Germany would demand the return of German Samoa et all at the negotiating table after the Great War; I feel that, while it's possible they would demand the return of these territories there's not a hope in Hell the Japanese will hand them back for the asking (and I suspect the Reich would happily trade it's rights to these puny little islands in return for concessions elsewhere, possibly in China).

Re: Western Pacific.

There was a discussion some time back about nuclear proliferation in TL-191, where I suggested that Australia, going its own way with Britain in no position to help, would become something like a TTL South Africa--nuclear armed and very racist, in fear of domination by Japan or possibly India (a united India, following Japan's example, with its own superbombs). I suggested there that Australia would become a refuge for some CS scientists and die-hard Freedomites who avoid getting snatched up by the US. Despite that, perhaps Australia would be a viable ally for the US against Japan.

As far as the various dominions go, Canada is likely to be assimilated into the US during the twentieth century, South Africa reorganized into a German satellite, and India independent (as I said, probably rather militaristic and perhaps friendly with Japan). All of which adds up to Britain being an impoverished, bankrupt, bombed-out ruin that the Germans and Americans don't much feel like helping up.

 

[MaxGerke01]

Just a quick question and might've missed it, but what part of London was hit by the superbomb?

Centered as close to Parliment or Buckingham Palace as possible you would think.Maybe Big Ben was the target ? But would targeting the center of London make it less useful to the British afterwards or more ?

 

[Tresckow]

Centered as close to Parliment or Buckingham Palace as possible you would think.Maybe Big Ben was the target ? But would targeting the center of London make it less useful to the British afterwards or more ?

Significantly less useful, but I feel like they’d try to target London’s industrial centers or railroad hubs rather than it’s landmarks. A thousand years of history would be incinerated if they deliberately target Westminster or Buckingham Palace, and I think Germany would be wise enough to realize that doing so would make Britain permanently resentful of the Germans due to the symbolic nature of such a bombing. Granted, it is mentioned that the Eiffel Tower and others were destroyed when Paris got bombed. But I do think you’re mistaken because Churchill and the king do survive the super bombing of London and there was no bunker strong enough to withstand a direct hit at any of the locations you mentioned.

 

[MaxGerke01]

Japan was changed OTL not just by being nuked but also occupied so ittl if Germany does one and not the other does that really change Britain or does it just send the Silver Shirts and like minded elements underground to re-emerge someday in the future ?