Romanov Ascendant: What if the Soviet Union survived?
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I just read the whole thing, and it's pretty great, but is it me or the threadmarks are completely messed up?
Justinian
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In the Soviet Union everyone was issued a lot of "Papers" that included identity documents and other information. One of the papers that one was issued was a ledger (the workbook) and it would be given to your employer, and a log of your employment would made and if you were to take a position somewhere else or get trained or educated in a different field you would either get your workbook back or it would be transferred to your new place of employment. For industrial laborers, there were many managers/apparatchiks attached especially to older or corrupt factories/facilities who would use control of the workbook as leverage on the workers, they could make it very difficult or near impossible to quit. They could not show up to work even, or be drunk all day, but the factory didn't want to lose the recorded employee because that would of course reduce it's priority, makes it's committee/manager/owners(communal or state) look bad and tried to have as many workers as possible.
This was obvious a problem that hampered industrial efficiency and innovation. The KGB would obviously be aware of the 'workbook' problem, in the timeline's anti corruption campaign imagine posters are made to encourage those to report "workbook" regulation violators or those who violate safety regulations (Which is one of the reasons why Chernobyl doesn't occur, a man like Dyatlov would have been too scared to attempt to falsify a nuclear safety test in a climate where even central committee friends couldn't help him, especially considering they were only Ukrainian while Romanov is curbing autonomy). Eventually the workbook is entirely digitized, probably with a profile where the computer technician would input a report of the productivity of the worker. This in combination with a massive industrial audit would result in a massive amount of older factories being shut down and scrapped, and the newer factories with better equipment getting transferred the workers. The old committees of the scrapped factories would be dissolved but would probably receive favorable treatment in pursuing management or supervisory positions at the new factories.
Update on Eastern Europe coming soon!
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Justinian
Banned
Romanov would have been more interested in creating peripheral distractions for the west, like that of Gaddafi's spectacle esque foreign policy. As a result he does manage to win the Toyota War in 1986 and secures the Aouzou Strip, because the Soviets arranged for the deployment of Syrian and their own advisors as well as the sale of better military equipment. The Soviets sold the Libyans the Igla complex when the French began operating aircraft in a reverse of what occurred to them in Afghanistan, resulting in the loss of several Jaguars and Mirage F-1s during the Quadi Doum airstrike. The intervention of Syrians to the helps the Libyan Army correct serious organizational problems, the Chadians end up repelled with heavy causalities at Fada. Simple aspects of modern war like artillery combined arms coordination, and improvisation (seeing the effectiveness of the Chadian technical and copying it by sticking ZU-23s and SPG-9s on trucks).
Mozambique would actually do fairly well, they get admitted into the COMECON with East Germany's sponsorship, with more aid and hard currency to go around.
Angola is more tied to South Africa, which is something I would cover more there. However, generally around 1986, the Soviets stopped footing the bill for the Cuban intervention resulting in the withdrawal of the Cuban Army and the SADF's aggression heavily pressed the MPLA which still maintained their hold in the north.
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Chapter One: The Polish Spring
Justinian
Banned
A Wave of Turbulence: 1990-1991
As the world began to enter the increasingly interconnected era of the 1990s and the Gulf War had demonstrated effectively the changing nature of the world. While the world remained divided in two alien camps, there was one fact that everyone in the first and second world could agree to, information technology was becoming increasingly advanced and ubiquitous. Satellites and telecommunications were lying the groundwork for even more advances. The internet in the west was in its infancy, it's developers in the United States had been encouraged and inspired by the Soviet's 'intranet'. Viewers in the United States and UK, the BBC's and CNN's consistent and constant coverage was a marked divergence, even from those who could remember the nightly broadcasts from Vietnam. In the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact, the internal media also began to evolve. Nearly all households now either had the money to buy a second television, had been granted one for free by the state or had got one through a waiting list, and there were now up to 18 channels. The various states diverted more money to cinema and media production, and considered white listing more western musicians in an effort to avoid unnecessary heavy censorship, that social scientists believed simply encouraged those already dissatisfied to try and listen to the "forbidden music".
While censorship regime similar to the 1980s was maintained, in that any cinema that would be imported and allowed for broadcast in the Eastern Bloc had to be government approved. A new organization, affiliated with inter Marxist-Leninist Party international associations and that included academics, party members and consultants on western culture became part of a a new organization created called the Marxist-Leninist International Media Review or ML-IMR that was established in East Berlin. The 2nd highest position was a 'consultant' from Moscow with ultimate veto power, and was ostensibly from the KGB.
It published reviews of cinema for western readership from a Marxist-Leninist perspective, and essentially created a universal board that wrote the criteria or rules for what was considered art in the Marxist-Leninist perspective and created the philosophical framework for censorship. "Not all art created in the capitalist world or for capitalist use is inherently capitalist, but as Gramsci suggests we must be eternally vigilant for the presence of bourgeois cosmopolitan idealism that automatically would infiltrate the works of the unconscious." - Soviet Academic. Some western television shows and movies were accepted, for example most of the films of Stanley Kubrick were considered acceptable, except for The Shining. There were exceptions, usually based on the intervention of a state, cinematographers could appeal or much later a corporation. The ML-IMR continued a long enduring intellectual fight with western academics over the definition of art, and if one could exist. Despite the left wing credentials of many of these people, they were wrote off as hopelessly naive and foolishly ungrounded as left communists/trotskyists. Some countries maintained stricter codes than others (In East German homosexuality was not considered censor worthy, whereas it was in the Soviet Union and Romania).
The avenues for delivering state sponsored propaganda increased ten fold. The TASS now featured the exciting footage of the Gulf War, in between documentaries on the sad state of the capitalist world, where the disease of poverty, breadlines, homelessness, drug addiction, HIV and racial violence was now apparently endemic in the west. TASS's foreign journalists had a field day on the invasion of Panama, after the KGB gave them evidence proving Noriega's links to the CIA leading to an international expose. TASS was quickly equipped to provide television services in other languages, although was immediately restricted in the United States under already existing legislation. This combined with increased efforts to support leftist organizations in Western Europe, helped rebuild the Soviet image and promote left wing radical politics, to the degree that Communist parties began to see an uptick in popularity, doing better in parliamentary elections and increasingly shifting back to Marxist Leninism rather than Eurocommunism. To many this simply amounted to communist propaganda on steroids. For example, it created a major debate within the British parliament to ban its broadcast. There was stronger pressure on western Europe to come to terms with the European community, and Thatcher's hold of the Prime Ministership was beginning to collapse as even flag draped tories believed that the Euro and European Integration was necessary to stop communism.
ZOMO Paramilitary Forces Attempt to Restrain Protestors in Poland, May 1991
Poland, 1991 Spring
Polish Spring
For the leadership of the Soviet Union, it was immediately obvious that computer systems increased the efficiency of planning substantially. Gosplan almost immediately realized this but within a few years it was obvious throughout the country. Economic growth was clearly occurring at a feverish pace, and this was just the result of inefficiencies and redundancies being stamped out. More produce, food, goods and etc found their way into the stores and into the hands of the people. The KGB saw the lessening and slacking of dissent. The people were content. They knew that the leaders in Eastern Europe knew that things were improving in the Soviet Union, and when Moscow said that they knew best, held all the cards and said it was time to implement their own versions of Uprochneniye into their respective country, how could anyone disagree? All it really meant, especially to the senior leadership of these states is that the Soviets would finance what they saw was a fancy new gimmick (Computers) device to be implemented in their nation. What they did not like was the demand for "anti corruption campaigns" and the elimination of certain groups of party functionaries, that had become far more powerful in those states than in the Soviet Union. Computerizing would generally help the economic situation, except for those not really developed industrially. Poland was one of the states where it was economically developed enough to be benefitted from an EKAP like system, but for them not only was their party hopelessly corrupt but the people had already turned against the state. Martial law had to be reintroduced in Poland in 1987 to 1989 and then again in 1990. General and First Secretary of the Polish Communist Party Wojciech Jaruzelski had to contend with an internal movement of dissent, the Solidarity Organization that actively encouraged the people to cause economic damage to the state. They were seen by many as heroes against a tyrannical military led government. Jaruzelski was not a malevolent man by any means, and it seemed only had seized power to prevent Soviet intervention as in 1968 in Prague. When he heard the reports of success in the Soviet Union he was encouraged, especially when having met General Secretary Romanov in 1989 in a state visit, and agreed with what he had to say, finding him to be a respectable and reasonable compatriot.
SD Officers arresting a dissident, April 1991.
Implementing 'Polish Consolidation' was much easier said than done, while the SD (The Polish version of the KGB) supported the imposition of the purges and computer system, it would have racked a party already unstable. With the full backing of the security forces, a systematic effort to root out the networks of corruption within the party culminated in a massive wave of arrests. This resulted in a revolt of the bureaucrats, contributing to further unrest and the aforementioned reinstitution of martial law. In the May of 1991, the lesser bureaucrats, members of various organizations, clergy, solidarity and some defecting party members (marked for removal by the KGB/SD), managed to stage what amounted to a riot or popular revolt in the city of Gdansk. Mass gatherings managed to overwhelm the police and internal troops and some armories were raided, and in some cases several police defected. Wojciech Jaruzelski was furious, banging his fists on the table, wondering why these fools would beg for another '68.
He stayed on the phone to Moscow long into the hours of the night and was assured there would be no need for intervention, he just had to stop this before it got out of hand. In what was called the "Battle or Uprising of Gdanksk" or the "Polish May" thousands of reserve police were mobilized along with reliable military units. Tear gas and Molotov cocktails were exchanged and some even resorted to self immolation. But by the end of the month, the ZOMO units had the city under curfew, along with nearly every major city in Poland. At least 180 civilians had died and seven police officer was killed. These events were exposed by the CIA, satellite and undercover photography and video recorded by the participants and word put out by emigrants.Ultimately Poland's anti state, or 'reactionary' forces would be systematically suppressed, sent to the Soviet Union for imprisonment. The dissidents had given ammo to the government and ultimately "its us vs them" thinking prevailed. Jaruzelski had undisputed control of the state and party and began the process of "consolidating". This would ultimately play into his hands considering he had the hard power on his side. The Soviets could afford to take the economic weight from his shoulders for the rest of the year, importing goods into Poland while it built and implemented the computer system, aided by the Central Economics-Mathematical Institute engineers.
The Funeral of Tito
Yugoslavia 1991
Enter Milosevic
Tito had proven to be the 'Iron Man' of Yugoslavia, being the beast that kept that state together. He was anti sectarian to the core, and envisioned unity for the Balkans. He had fought, even on the front lines of WW2, but after every day in his own country to keep the ethnic and religious tensions down, the backwards way of looking at the world Tito saw as keeping the peoples of Yugoslavia away from success. He however died to much fanfare on May 4th 1980. After, his successors did not demonstrate the same level of backbone or capacity for leadership that seemed to be necessary to run such a country. Demographically, the largest ethnic group were Serbs, closely followed by Croats, who had a strong enmity for each other. A deputy, the third man in Yugoslavia at the time, Slobodan Milosevic used an ethnic conflict between Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo to increase his political clout, despite the official policies against further inflaming ethnic conflicts like this. Milosevic at his core was a pragmatist, he did not really care about the conflict but saw in it an opportunity to bring himself higher. As the state suffered during the 1980s from high lending and massive debts, as Yugoslavia's advanced economy full of experts and technically skilled workers was becoming increasingly outcompeted by firms in South Korea and Japan. They were only saved from a massive fuel crisis when Romanov had agreed to a loan and for a Yugoslavian extension to the Brotherhood pipeline. However, when Markovic attempted to agree to an IMF plan that included 'shock therapy' and complete austerity, Milosevic who had managed to come out of the Kosovo scuffle with stronger political credentials was approached.
A 2 Million Currency Bill for Yugoslavian Dinars, issued in 1989, emblematic of the inflation.
When the session to censure Milosevic for his inciting of ethnic tensions had started, he used it as an opportunity to both politically assassinate the President and his 2nd Deputy, by attacking him for his plans to liberalize the economy, "bow down to the west" and ignore the possibility of renewed relations with the Soviets. In a staggering, very close vote of no confidence, Milosevic had deseated Markovic and took control of the nation himself. General Secretary Romanov considered the notion of bringing the errant Yugoslavia into the Warsaw Pact, completely cementing his reputation within the Politburo, as a major goal; cementing his own political legitimacy and foreign policy record. But Milosevic's nationalism, favoritism of Serbs and flagrant disregard for the principals of Tito's Yugoslavia were creating a contradictory situation. But Milosevic's pragmatist outlook and recognition that his path to power resided with Soviet support and compromised. He completely contradicted his own words from 1989, and said that Yugoslavian socialism and Serbian nationalism were one and the same. Romanov was pleased with someone who appeared to know his place, and in exchange for joining the Warsaw pack, Romanov would guarantee Yugoslavia's territorial integrity and protect it from secessionism. This created even more internal unrest and anti communist dissent, even among his Serbian supporters, as many interpreted it as him selling the country to Russia, yet another repudiation of Tito’s legacy. There were riots in Belgrade, but were crushed by the security forces. In the long term, 'Consolidation' could work in Yugoslavia too, and the highly skilled workforce of Yugoslavia would prove highly useful to the Eastern Bloc, especially to COMECON's plans of further integration would soon come into light.
JNA/Yugoslavian People's Army Military Police Controlling Rioting in Belgrade, June 1991
The procession of secession was already underway in Slovenia and Croatia. The events in Poland, and the upcoming military operations necessary to quash Croatian and Slovenian secessionism were a Faustian bargain, that would again provide the west the means to paint the Soviet Union and Romanov as an aggressive tyrant. There would no doubt be massive civilian casualties as well as general carnage, disturbing the peace that had existed in Europe for so many years. When the Slovenians revolted, the Serbians were pushed to engage in a full scale military crackdown. Advisors from the Soviet group of forces in Germany assisted in directing efforts, resulting in a campaign last several months. Slovenians ambushed and destroyed entire columns, as well as having stormed JNA (Yugoslavia People's Army) garrisons and then having armed themselves. However, despite defections of Croatian, Slovenian and even Serbian soldiers, the unassailable advantage the JNA possessed with a full scale invasion prevented any meaningful defence until the JNA had made it to Ljublijana.
JNA Forces proceeding through Croatia in a show of force on the way to Slovenia, which had already declared independence by June 10th
Soviet 'Volunteer Brigade' Forces from the Group of Forces in Germany, assisting the JNA on the 30th of June, a day when the Slovenian Territorial Defence Militia had offered particularly hard resistance.
A Slovenian crews manning a Bofors 40mm Gun during the Battle for Ljublijana on the 8th of July.
The Battle of Ljublijana:
July 1st 1991-17th July 1991
Despite the inability of the Slovenian militia to provide any serious resistance to the advance of the Yugoslavian army assisted by Soviet advisors, except in the form of delaying actions; they had been able to arm themselves from looted depots and captured soldiers well. The CIA and MI6 smuggled in as many weapons as possible, and organized crime in Italy had no problem selling anything they could get either. The widespread support for Slovenian independence ensured that thousands volunteered to defend their republic's capital city. The Soviet's were hesitant on replicating Bucharest, and their JNA counterparts who wanted to save as many lives as possible agreed with them. The connections to the city were cut and it was put under siege. Selective air raids by the Yugoslavian air force went array however, and many civilians were killed or injured, many recorded by western journalists. Before the encirclement of the city, many volunteers from Croatia had joined.
Slovenian Fighters, July 14th 1991.
Many saw the mass defence of the city as a continuation of the spirit of the revolt in Gdansk. As these idealistic speeches were broadcast, and the weeks dragged on without an agreement to surrender, the JNA stormed the city. Massive artillery bombardments to destroy defensive strong points cleared the first two rings of defences, but as they pressed on the vehicles had to proceed more carefully endangering the JNA Infantry. It took two weeks to break the will of the defenders, who fought back by any means necessary. As the city fell, many resorted to suicide bombs, fake surrenders and fighting from the sewer. Ljublijana was "liberated" by the JNA by 2:30PM, 17th of July, 1991. Some insurgents fought on in the hills, but more importantly, the fires of unrest were stoked. In the eyes of those who had witnessed or watched the events in Ljublijana, felt as if the only way to make their political will known was violence. Communism, and the tyranny of Romanov, had to be opposed by any means necessary. By the end of the intervention, thousands of civilians were killed (3000-5000~) hundreds of Yugoslavian servicemen (972), a few Soviets (10) and thousands of volunteers, including internationals (upwards of 3500~). Some more cynical members of the Western intelligence services, in particular the CIA, saw the militancy and radicalism of those opposed to communism in Eastern Europe and Russia as an opportunity.
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El_Fodedor
Banned
Are you planning for further big changes in Europe beside Yugoslavia? Maybe a seriously left-wing president comes to power in France, taking them out of NATO for good. This type of thing only becomes more realistic while the prosperity gap between the East and the West lessens.
What about West Germany? Any plans for them? If the Eastern Bloc can survive until you have a crash similar to the one we had in 2008 OTL, then I believe the geopolitical situation could shift strongly enough to so that Bonn can collapse, leading to an...different reunification. Of course, this would need a much more serious economic crisis than the one we really had.
Nice chapter!
What about West Germany? Any plans for them? If the Eastern Bloc can survive until you have a crash similar to the one we had in 2008 OTL, then I believe the geopolitical situation could shift strongly enough to so that Bonn can collapse, leading to an...different reunification. Of course, this would need a much more serious economic crisis than the one we really had.
Nice chapter!
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god the GFC will be a disaster for the west as the economic situation in the Warsaw pact and Ussr will help insulate them (though defo not leave them untouched. honestly if you were going to have any point of reform that would be it). it will look like to a lot of people that the Ussr was ultimately right. especially as this wasn't some problem easily fixed the GFC had been building up for decades and it wasn't a problem that people could, were or wanted to look into until it was far too late. so it will be an interesting time indeed.
I wonder how the Soviet Union will deal with Latin America, especially with their leftist groups.
The GDR's progressive LGBTQIA+ policies could, eventually, influence other socialists States in the same direction.
Justinian
Banned
Overall I think that the most realistic outcome is further and increased integration economically on either side of the iron curtain. In the west, the Communist movement would he definitely strongly resurgent in France but even stronger in Italy. I suspect Franco-German capitalists may drift towards the unthinkable, in doing what capitalism tends to do in crisis.
Not to give it away for people who didn't read the original draft. But events there will definitely radicalize and embolden nationalist and far right factions. To get that far ahead, I think i might write alternate endings and leave a bit of ambiguity/choose your own ending but I haven't decided yet. We could see another oil crisis considering Soviet meddling in the middle east, but that's pure speculation. Regardless thank you that is very much appreciated!
That's true, it will also have a lot to do with China, how the west develops economically as it slides into the 1992 recession. The potential for an oil crisis too.
I'll definitely address them, Venezuela is at a tipping point and Cuban isn't active in Angola now. But they also have a new idea to gain hard western currency and pressure Colombia.
This I think so, the Soviets especially. I believe it would be a slow roll in terms of progressive recognition of rights, but I could also see them embracing it in a way to just make the west look bad.
I was thiking, the Sino-Soviet reaprochment could start with joint development and construction of the high speed rail, since both the PRC and the USSR are big and will benefit greatly from HSR. Also want to see how you'll rewrite the car of the people (soviet license built version of the Corolla for those who don't remember) and, last but not least, Buran-Energia. If the budget allows it the soviets should do something for the 30 years anniversary of Gagarin's flight in 91.
I was wondering what words?The most earliest speech i was able to find by Milosevic is in 1988
Galaksija (computer) - Wikipedia
El_Fodedor
Banned
Considering China managed to navigate the rough waters of the GFC well, and that they are much more integrated than this USSR model, even after computers being introduced, I believe it would be realistic that the Soviets can deal with this crisis more or less unscathed.
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Honestly yes I agree but Honestly, it's just practically the best point. But I do agree the current version of the USSR could weather the storm unscathed. If anything it's more likely internal influence is the only thing that can push this USSR to any reform. Though I would argue China survived the gfc for entirely different reasons why this USSR would.
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