What if the Transcaucasian SSR was kept around?

[SirHalifax]

So, pre-1936, the SSR’s of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan were united into one SSR. What if the SSR wasn’t dissolved in 1936. Assuming we place a butterfly net in place, when the USSR collapses, do we get a second Yugoslavia in the Caucasus?

 

[NOLAWildcat]

Armenians and Azerbaijanis living in harmony post USSR under the same government? The last 30 years tells me no. I think you end up with a split. Hopefully it goes more like Czechoslovakia than Yugoslavia, but given the religious aspect, I’d bet on a somewhat bloody affair.

 

[Lalli]

Probably not much changes before fall of USSR but afterwards things are going to be mess. Georgai would secede immediately and soon Armenia and Azerbaijan would are fighting. So not much changes to OTL.

 

[SirHalifax]

Probably not much changes before fall of USSR but afterwards things are going to be mess. Georgai would secede immediately and soon Armenia and Azerbaijan would are fighting. So not much changes to OTL.

Probably not much changes before fall of USSR but afterwards things are going to be mess. Georgai would secede immediately and soon Armenia and Azerbaijan would are fighting. So not much changes to OTL.

I thought Georgia was dominant in the Transcaucasian project?

 

[Lalli]

I thought Georgia was dominant in the Transcaucasian project?

You might be right since Tbilisis was capital of the SSR. But I don't think that Georgia has much of will or cabacities to keep Armenia and Azerbaijan since they are going to dispute territories and probably Abkhazia tries to secede.

 

[walmart]

How likely would it be for Javakheti to try to break away from Georgia ?

 

[David T]

If for whatever reason, Stalin (and his successors) decided to keep the Transcaucasian Federation going past 1936, [1] I would think that if anything 1990-2 would be even bloodier than OTL (which was bloody enough). There would in the first place be violence between those who wanted to keep the Federation going and those who wanted to break it up, and in the second place violence (as in OTL) about the boundaries of the individual republics, pogroms against minorities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku_pogrom etc.

[1] It's very doubtful that they would so so, since it would be a departure from the whole structure of the USSR-- one titular nationality for each Union Republic.

 

[thenextgui]

Would this also result in Central Asia remaining in Russian SFSR

 

[Lalli]

Would this also result in Central Asia remaining in Russian SFSR

Probably not since there was quiet few of Russians and it was quiet heavely populated. So there would be sitll Central Asian SSRs.

 

[Darzin]

I think that in this case Abkhazia and South Ossetia would be internationally recognized states as they'd break away with the rest.

I'd also guess we'd have a Caucuses war similar to the Yugoslav wars IOTL.

 

[Bad@logic]

I thought Georgia was dominant in the Transcaucasian project?

The same forces could be present as in Russia vis-a-vis the USSR as a whole, a feeling of Georgia being bled off to fund the less dynamic and productive other nations. Georgia was certainly a very successful territory, in relative terms, in the Soviet economy, to the extent that Georgians apparently still have jokes about their sadness of the colony they lost with the break up of the USSR, so it seems like they might easily feel condescension towards and a feeling of being held back by their neighbors.

 

[SirHalifax]

I think that in this case Abkhazia and South Ossetia would be internationally recognized states as they'd break away with the rest.

I'd also guess we'd have a Caucuses war similar to the Yugoslav wars IOTL.

I wonder which side the Russians would pick?

 

[Darzin]

I wonder which side the Russians would pick?

Probably everyone except Georgia the way NATO intervened against Serbia. Though I'm not sure Georgia would try to hold it all together in this case.

 

[Nephi]

Oh boy what a disaster that would have been, but the final borders probably would have gone smoother than our world one of them would have ended up being close to Russia, probably Georgia, Azerbaijan might claim part of Iran, born in fire what's a little more fire they'll see themselves as hell bent on uniting all of Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh probably ends up part of the Armenian state. Or maybe some sort of population exchange occurs with Nakhchivan in the final peace.