Only this time the British force that were attacking Persia in the south will instead face the Soviet
A force which doesn’t exist in mid-1940. Of the 2 divisions and 3 brigades involved in Operation Countenance, 8th Indian was only formed in October, 10th Indian was formed in January 1941, 9th Armoured Brigade was still 4th Cavalry and on garrison duty in Palestine and Trans-Jordan, the 21st Indian Brigade was still the Quetta Brigade until September 1940 and would not arrive in theater until March 1941, and the 2nd Independent Armoured Brigade was likewise forming up in India until early-1941. Anglo-French Forces east of the Suz at the time were skeleton, static garrison formations. Everything west of the Suez was focused against the Italians.
and this also mean that there were less incentive for surrender as the nation is not alone and it's not fight on two front , same for Turkey as any soviet forces will face the Anglo-French
The Iranians resisted plenty in 1941. It didn’t help them: Soviet spearheads were already south of Tehran by the time the Shah ordered his forces to cease-resistance.
and the Soviet have not even begun to digest any lesson from the Winter War;
The Soviets were digesting the lessons of the Winter War before the Winter War
even ended. The difference in the performance of Red Army forces during the first and second half of the conflict is quite stark. Not to say it was brilliant, it was rather pretty middling, but that’s still a incredible step up from the utter-travesty of the first-half.
plus the red army is not in any shape to face the commonwealth and the French in an open fight, not in 1940;
If anything, the Red Army is in a lot better shape to fight the Anglo-French then they are the Finns. Any Anglo-French Force, in addition to being too pitiful numerically to seriously have any impact, are at this time wedded to a relatively immobile doctrine of static defense that lacks the dynamic counter-attacks found in the German, Finnish, or late-war Allied and Soviet systems. It boils down to a contest of numbers and material, and in such an eventuality the hundreds of thousands of soldiers, along with the associated artillery and tanks, the Soviets could potentially field against Turkey are just gonna swamp the handful of brigades that are the most the Anglo-French could hope to deploy... and that’s if they are okay with having Syria and Iraq immediately then revolt behind them.
More a couple of week of raids
In the delusions of the planners, sure. Given the actual material state of the forces involved, their endurance is liable to be a lot less especially if they are being rushed out months ahead of when the plan says they are supposed to be ready as posited in the TL
and while it can be wishfull thinking, one can also say the same on the fact that the URSS will avoid such problems,
No, it isn’t at all. Far larger raids of far greater sophistication, scale, and duration than what Pike concieved of failed to substantially disrupt the production of oil fields in any strategically meaningful fashion. To posit it would not cause the Soviets any trouble is the conclusion drawn from the actual history of strategic bombing.
Looking ahead to France: the main question is if the Soviets now being fully on their side changes German planning of the campaign. Belgian joining in ahead of time would also potentially make a difference though: many problems the French encountered were because they had to rush their army into Belgium at the same time the Germans were doing the same, a kind of mobile fight the Germans were much better at.
In the Ardennes specifically, the French rushed their light cavalry divisions forward to try and hold the forest trails, only to be driven off by the far more powerful panzer divisions. The Belgian troops also made no attempt to hold the area as they did not consider it relevant to their own plans, which were for the defense of central and northern Belgium. But had the Belgians allowed the Allies to pre-position their forces and had they been involved in Allied war planning, then the Ardennes could instead have been defended by several well entrenched French infantry divisions, which would have made it a completely different fight.