Spanish court in exile in the New World

[Strategos' Risk]

Doing a cursory title search, I'm surprised people haven't suggested a situation where the Spanish court is forced into the exile to the New World, mirroring the experience of the Portuguese court in Brazil. For instance, during the Peninsular War against Napoleon.

So, what if they did? Does that delay the Mexican War of Independence a bit? Does the Aranda Plan get reconsidered?

Kings of Aranda's America

After the American Revolutionary War, the Spanish minister count Aranda, had proposed reforming the Spanish empire into a commonwealth by turning the colonies into three kingdom's with sons of Charles III being made kings. There are two candidates who come to mind, namely Infante's Gabriel and...

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The Spanish Empire survives as a commonwealth.

After the American Revolution, the Spanish Empire re-organizes into a Spanish Commonwealth, with the viceroyalties turned into dominion-like kingdoms ruled by members of the spanish royal family. What happens later through the 19th and 20th centuries? Would Spain remain a great power? What would...

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Count of Aranda's Plan of 1783 by ARPS123 on DeviantArt

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[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

Where would they set up shop? They do have a lot of colonies after all.

Mexico City, Lima, and Havana seem like the most likely options in terms of development and wealth. Of course if they want a centralized capital, Panama or Venuzuela would be the best bet.

 

[Neal Caffrey]

I think that the Mexican Revolution would not be delayed at all since the people had wanted to rebel for a long time and the court moving meant little as long as the underlying problems were not addressed, people weren't that angered by the distance between Mexico and Madrid, a lot of discontent came from things like the Bourbon reforms, the limitations on trade and political and religious restrictions like how bishops and archbishop's couldn't be criollos.

Also I am curious about something, when do they go to the New World? In 1808 or later because that will make a rather large difference on what the court can do and how many consecions they would have to do.

 

[Diego]

a lot of discontent came from things like the Bourbon reforms, the limitations on trade and political and religious restrictions like how bishops and archbishop's couldn't be criollos.

Those were the type of things that ended in Brazil when the court was moved to Rio de Janeiro. I think that moving the capital to Mexico City or even Havana would mean the same thing, at least in Mexico and Cuba. Even more if they move because Spain was occupied, then there is absolute zero motivation to keep the colonial pact.

 

[cloistered scholar]

I think any capital needs to be where malaria isn't too common. Mexico City?

 

[unprincipled peter]

OTL, the family was heading toward the coast where they could make such an escape when their plans were derailed. The destination was Mexico, which was the top colony in the empire.
This has been discussed here, although not with the regularity of many tired PODs (Washington dies, Napoleon wins at Waterloo, different Gettysburg).

A key difference between the Brazilian model and this Spanish one is that the Brazilians were prepared and left town with a large portion of their elite and financial resources. The Bourbons were leaving with more or less the shirts on their backs.

Joao, from Brazil, was known as a lack luster King (technically Regent) in Portugal, but rallied quite remarkably for the move. The Bourbons, under Carlos IV and Ferdinand were horrible Kings. Perhaps one of them could rally. I doubt it. So, don't look for any great statesmanship.

Much of the empire wasn't overly disloyal, including Mexico. Mexico wanted a Bourbon when they settled on Iturbide. I think the court starts out well, but goes downhill fast. Mexico was torn between liberals, conservatives, and church. The Bourbons don't have what it takes to heal that rift.

The Aranda Plan, which was more of a 'hey, what if' than an actual plan, suffers from one fatal flaw: The Bourbons would have a hard time coming up with one decent candidate, let alone several.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Much of the empire wasn't overly disloyal, including Mexico. Mexico wanted a Bourbon when they settled on Iturbide. I think the court starts out well, but goes downhill fast. Mexico was torn between liberals, conservatives, and church. The Bourbons don't have what it takes to heal that rift.

The Aranda Plan, which was more of a 'hey, what if' than an actual plan, suffers from one fatal flaw: The Bourbons would have a hard time coming up with one decent candidate, let alone several.

lol if this ends up being a situation where the Bourbons end up getting killed over in the ensuing decolonization struggles as rival factions scramble for power. It'd be less of a French Revolution situation and more of a English Civil War thing, maybe. It's not that the revolters are against monarchy, but they get sick of the systemic issues that the monarchs are unable to fix and maybe the incompetent kings end up in the crossfire.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I’m surprised that there’s not so much interest in this idea, given that the Portuguese experience happened and is a useful case study for this.

 

[cloistered scholar]

Granting the same rights to "Europeans" born in the America's, as those born in Spain, would go a long way to making the empire more stable in the long run.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Isn't having Godoy in the Americas a big deal? Would he have made any changes since he's forced to live there?

 

[Nivek]

Joao, from Brazil, was known as a lack luster King (technically Regent) in Portugal, but rallied quite remarkably for the move. The Bourbons, under Carlos IV and Ferdinand were horrible Kings. Perhaps one of them could rally. I doubt

Yeah if anything would end up coup d'etat in México too and killed and nothing of value would be lost

 

[Aguss]

Yes, Carlos IV and Ferdinand are horrible. Carlos, brother of Ferdinand and Francisco, seems to be horrible too.
If it were Mexico (or another colony), I would prefer to crown Francisco or one of the Spanish Infantas, I think one of them was married to a Bourbon man.

God, may Carlos IV send his youngest son (Francisco) or one of his daughters to Mexico as Viceroy to prepare the colony for the royal arrival. And then Carlos IV, and his eldest sons die from some storm in the Atlantic.
It's better for everyone.

I know that the Spanish succession is Salic, but Spain has little say in the matter when it is invaded by Napoleon.

 

[Nivek]

it were Mexico (or another colony), I would prefer to crown Francisco or one of the Spanish Infantas, I think one of them was married to a Bourbon man.

Why crown a foreigner when you can choose a local men? They're done dude

 

[Aguss]

Why crown a foreigner when you can choose a local men? They're done dude

Unfortunately I can't deny that. The Spanish Bourbons would need a miracle.

 

[Paladín Wulfen]

Isn't having Godoy in the Americas a big deal? Would he have made any changes since he's forced to live there?

You talk about the same guy who literally un the partición of Portugal he take all the south of that like Prince.

Why crown a foreigner when you can choose a local men? They're done dude

Because that can promote rebellions independients.

Granting the same rights to "Europeans" born in the America's, as those born in Spain, would go a long way to making the empire more stable in the long run.

Yep.

I think any capital needs to be where malaria isn't too common. Mexico City?

México City, La Habana or Lima. Lima was the Last Bastion

 

[Strategos' Risk]

So if the Spanish monarchs were pretty incompetent, does that mean the Latin American wars of independence will lead to them mucking about and likely getting captured and executed? (Do they flee to Brazil or something if not) And if the Spanish monarchy gets obliterated in the New World, what effects does that have in Spain?

 

[Diego]

Why crown a foreigner when you can choose a local men? They're done dude

Unfortunately I can't deny that. The Spanish Bourbons would need a miracle.

Because that is what almost everyone did when they founded new monarchies during the 19th century, also because that was what happened IOTL, Iturbide was crowned as a last resort, the original plan was to have a Borbon, it would be a source of legitimacy, something that forum members usually forget, but that people at the time where very very aware of its need.

 

[unprincipled peter]

So if the Spanish monarchs were pretty incompetent, does that mean the Latin American wars of independence will lead to them mucking about and likely getting captured and executed? (Do they flee to Brazil or something if not) And if the Spanish monarchy gets obliterated in the New World, what effects does that have in Spain?

The Spanish Bourbon family has a VERY BIG advantage: legitimacy. Being a dunce means it may not last, but the start of a Bourbon New Spain will have a lot of support. I would posit that a Bourbon New Spain monarchy can last IF the King has any semblance of competency. They don't have to generate a base. They just have to not muck it up. That's a tall order with that family, but I wouldn't rule it out.

Doubt execution happens if they flub. They aren't rebel interlopers, ala Maximilian a couple decades later. They get escorted to a boat and shoved out to sea.

What happens in Spain: The Crown will have claimed the Empire, except ruled from New Spain. How long have they spent in NS? Do they muck it up before the end of the Nap wars? Have they stayed in NS after Spain has been freed from Joseph Bonaparte, ala Brazil/Portugal? In either case, the any surviving Bourbon will claim the Spanish Crown. With the former, Spain is more or less as OTL. With the latter, the Bourbons may have a hard time keeping Spain. Additionally, with the latter, the Crown will probably have lost all of South America, with all resources being spent in NS, leaving the rest of colonies free to break away.

I think there are a bunch of descendants of Philip V who should be alive to claim the Spanish Crown if the Carlos IV clan should all be slaughtered. I think at a minimum, you have Carlota and her spawn hanging out in Brazil. King Miguel? IF the Carlos IV clan are dead, any surviving Bourbon will be more apt to accept a crown in the colonies, or fight for Spain itself. I think the rest of the world powers will be eager to avoid a republic in Spain, so they'll push for a monarchy restoration.

 

[Teiresias]

So if the Spanish monarchs were pretty incompetent

And incestuous. Ferdinand VII alone married two of his nieces*, his cousin, and his second cousin. And his sixteen-year old daughter was made to marry her double-first cousin.

For some reason they learnt nothing from Charles II.

*His brother Carlos also married two of his nieces. And Francisco's wife was also his niece. And his sister, Maria Amalia, was married off to her uncle at the age of 16 (and his other sisters were also underage when they got married off).

 

[unprincipled peter]

And incestuous. Ferdinand VII alone married two of his nieces*, his cousin, and his second cousin. And his sixteen-year old daughter was made to marry her double-first cousin.

For some reason they learnt nothing from Charles II.

*His brother Carlos also married two of his nieces. And Francisco's wife was also his niece. And his sister, Maria Amalia, was married off to her uncle at the age of 16 (and his other sisters were also underage when they got married off).

The main remarkable thing about this was how late in the game they were doing this. Up to that point, most of the big houses, including France and Austria, has been doing this (mostly cousins, though). By this era, though, that practice was dying out.