Munich Shuffle: 1938-1942

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

[6] An earlier attempt at Case Anton by the Axis brings about the same response as OTL.

The entire French "empire" goes over to the Allies? That's a huge win for the Allies.

But apparently not, since the mutineers were arrested by Vichy afterwards. But then how does Darlan meet with De Gaulle in North Africa?

Still, the Allies may get West Africa, Syria, Madagascar, the West Indies. If Richelieu is at Dakar, that's big.

However... I don't see the crews scuttling their ships. For one thing, that wouldn't save them from being conscripted for labor. Moving the ships to a neutral port (Lisbon? Surely not Spain.) would be much safer. Or, as ISTR, the British also suggested steaming to the West Indies.

 

[Garrison]

The entire French "empire" goes over to the Allies? That's a huge win for the Allies.

But apparently not, since the mutineers were arrested by Vichy afterwards. But then how does Darlan meet with De Gaulle in North Africa?

Still, the Allies may get West Africa, Syria, Madagascar, the West Indies. If Richelieu is at Dakar, that's big.

However... I don't see the crews scuttling their ships. For one thing, that wouldn't save them from being conscripted for labor. Moving the ships to a neutral port (Lisbon? Surely not Spain.) would be much safer. Or, as ISTR, the British also suggested steaming to the West Indies.

Sorry I meant in terms of how the MN reacts to Case Anton, they did scuttle the ships OTL and I'm thinking they wouldn't have time for anything more elaborate here.

 

[pjmidd]

Sorry I meant in terms of how the MN reacts to Case Anton, they did scuttle the ships OTL and I'm thinking they wouldn't have time for anything more elaborate here.

OTL they scuttled because they had no fuel after 2 years, if they have fuel still ITTL, they would have sailed ( scuttled ships in harbours can be raised just like at Pearl Harbour ). Now some may have sailed to be interned and some to defect to the Free French , but if possible they would have sailed.

 

[Garrison]

OTL they scuttled because they had no fuel after 2 years, if they have fuel still ITTL, they would have sailed ( scuttled ships in harbours can be raised just like at Pearl Harbour ). Now some may have sailed to be interned and some to defect to the Free French , but if possible they would have sailed.

The entire French "empire" goes over to the Allies? That's a huge win for the Allies.

But apparently not, since the mutineers were arrested by Vichy afterwards. But then how does Darlan meet with De Gaulle in North Africa?

Still, the Allies may get West Africa, Syria, Madagascar, the West Indies. If Richelieu is at Dakar, that's big.

However... I don't see the crews scuttling their ships. For one thing, that wouldn't save them from being conscripted for labor. Moving the ships to a neutral port (Lisbon? Surely not Spain.) would be much safer. Or, as ISTR, the British also suggested steaming to the West Indies.

So I've revised the update accordingly based on the comments:
The Strasbourg’s escape proved only a brief reprieve as by the time it reached the port of Toulon events had overtaken it. When word reached Berlin Hitler and Raeder leapt to the conclusion that the mutiny had been an attempt on the part of some or all of the ships to defect to the Free French. Orders were sent out for German troops to be deployed to secure the ships at Toulon against any further such attempts. When the French caught wind of this the ships at Toulon received contradictory orders, which result in some ships low on fuel being scuttled, including the Strasbourg. Several others fled for neutral ports to be interned and a few chose to defect outright to the Free French, providing a valuable boost to the naval strength of the Free French and giving de Gaulle a wonderful PR moment shaking hands with the senior officers of the cruiser Algérie. Hitler was infuriated by this action and came close to ordering the occupation of the whole of France there and then, only being dissuaded when Laval offered to increase the guest worker quota and to impose even more production burdens on French industry [6].

 

[generalurist]

Damn son. It seems that the nearer-run battle of France has caused Germany to turn the screws tighter on Vichy, which in turn undermines Vichy's legitimacy a lot faster. than OTL. I'm guessing there will be a much more active French resistance by the time the WAllies get back on the continent. Love how the butterflies are flapping.

Who is in control of North Africa though? Apparently De Gaulle met with Darlan there, yet also it's loyal enough to arrest the surviving crews of the ships?

What Free French capital ships, if any, survive in either Free or Vichy hands?

 

[CaptainCalvert]

So Darlan meets with de Gaulle in North Africa in early 1941. Seems like a lot more defections to the Free French.

The OTL deal was - more or less - a token French state to keep the empire intact (which also kept it out of British hands). An earlier Vichy collapse or insufficient credibility from the start makes defection much more likely in the colonies where allied forces can protect them.
Weak armed forces, poor resources (and family ties to France) mean North Africa is vulnerable to the axis until either the allies drive the axis from Libya or Torch starts.
I doubt Darlan would be much of an asset to De Gaulle, who wasn't noted as a team player, but his absence could result in changes to the command structure of N African armed forces, perhaps resulting in a more collaborative replacement for Weygand.
Heading a bit north west, was Chamberlain's change of approach early enough to keep the Irish treaty ports in British hands? This could be a big deal for convoy protection.

 

[Kotka]

Just to clarify, the entire French Empire (and part of the fleet) is already under Free French control by 1941?

 

[The Ghost of Danton]

Just to clarify, the entire French Empire (and part of the fleet) is already under Free French control by 1941?

Yeah the main thing I meant by commenting about the Darlan meeting was I thought that meant Algeria was already Free French by early 41 ITTL.

 

[Garrison]

Sorry should clarify that Darlan visited Vichy North Africa and then slipped away to Allied controlled territory.
ETA: And I have made a small change for clarification.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

Sorry should clarify that Darlan visited Vichy North Africa and then slipped away to Allied controlled territory.
ETA: And I have made a small change for clarification.

In 1941, French North African land borders are with Libya and Spanish Morocco. However, a French admiral would be useful for persuading neutral ships to declare for Free France and (despite my previous comments) would be a PR coup for the Free French. I can see a nighttime pickup on a deserted beach and a trip in a Royal Navy submarine to somewhere safer (though the Surcouf would be more fitting).

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Sorry I meant in terms of how the MN reacts to Case Anton, they did scuttle the ships OTL and I'm thinking they wouldn't have time for anything more elaborate here.

I was referring to the scuttlings at Mers-el-Kébir. Those do not seem plausible to me. There doesn't seem to be any point. The Germans are nowhere nearby. If a crew really is worried about being conscripted for labor in Germany, their logical course of action is to sail their ship somewhere it and they can't be seized. Which is what the British want them to do anyway.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

In early 1941 Darlan somehow found his way North Africa and from there to Allied controlled territory...

What "Allied-controlled territory"?

From Dakar in West Africa, he could cross the border into Gambia, but from North Africa there's nowhere to go, except by crossing the entire Sahara Desert to Equatorial Africa.

He could try flying to Portugal, which was neutral but Allies-friendly.

 

[Garrison]

I was referring to the scuttlings at Mers-el-Kébir. Those do not seem plausible to me. There doesn't seem to be any point. The Germans are nowhere nearby. If a crew really is worried about being conscripted for labor in Germany, their logical course of action is to sail their ship somewhere it and they can't be seized. Which is what the British want them to do anyway.

The problem being there was no general agreement on what to do, hence a lot of disorder and some ships trying to get out while others are scuttled, possibly by pro Vichy personnel who didn't want them handed over to the British, or personnel who would rather see them sunk than handed over to the Germans, its a chaotic situation with no real plan on the part of the mutineers.

 

[El Pip]

I agree the Mer-el-Kebir scuttlings make very little sense, as does the idea of the Strasbourg someone sneaking past a much larger radar equipped fleet that is on alert to try and stop that very thing.

I do have to raise an issue with this;

allowed that France could make up the shortfall by providing Germany with several hundred thousand guest workers, a polite euphemism for slave labour.

The Germans absolutely did use slave labour,if you were from Central or Eastern Europe it was at best grim if not murderous and if you were Soviet or undesirable then it was deliberately murderous. But this is Nazi Germany so there was a 'racial' hierarchy for this, if you were a volunteer guest worker from Western Europe then you were paid about the same as German labourer and got similar pay and conditions. They were even sending money home. Now later on, come 1943 onwards the supply of volunteers is gone and you get the STO and other schemes that are much nearer forced labour even for Western Europeans, none of which work. This, like so much of what happened in France during the Occupation, was a sensitive subject post-war as no-one wanted to admit quite how much collaboration there had been, so there was a pretence the forced labour started from the beginning. Because it was that or admit 1million or so Frenchmen (not counting POWs or those in Alsace-Lorraine) had voluntarily worked in Germany so they could send money home to their families.

 

[Garrison]

I agree the Mer-el-Kebir scuttlings make very little sense, as does the idea of the Strasbourg someone sneaking past a much larger radar equipped fleet that is on alert to try and stop that very thing.

Actually that is the one thing I didn't change, the Strasbourg successfully made a run for it OTL. As for the slave labour, I think that can be chalked up to Germany having taken more losses and being more punitive.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

What "Allied-controlled territory"?

From Dakar in West Africa, he could cross the border into Gambia, but from North Africa there's nowhere to go, except by crossing the entire Sahara Desert to Equatorial Africa.

He could try flying to Portugal, which was neutral but Allies-friendly.

As CaptainCalvert suggested, if Darlan can get in touch with the UK (and be convincing enough of his intentions) a pickup by Royal Navy submarine from a North African beach to take him away (by sea) to Allied territory?

Edit:
I'll add that if Alastair Mars' WW2 accounts (Unbroken, the story of a submarine) are correct, the submarine under his command made a covert pickup at one point during WW2 of someone at the western end of the Mediterranean. (And at other times made various covert drop offs.)

 

[Garrison]

As CaptainCalvert suggested, if Darlan can get in touch with the UK (and be convincing enough of his intentions) a pickup by Royal Navy submarine from a North African beach to take him away (by sea) to Allied territory?

Edit:
I'll add that if Alastair Mars' WW2 accounts (Unbroken, the story of a submarine) are correct, the submarine under his command made a covert pickup at one point during WW2 of someone at the western end of the Mediterranean. (And at other times made various covert drop offs.)

Well it sounds reasonable to me, so that is the official explanation.

 

[Garrison]

Just a what's coming up post. Thursday and Saturday will be a 'two parter' on the opening of Italy's war. Then after that there are three updates covering the situation in Britain, Germany and the USA as the new year begins. After that? Operation Judgement, where Admiral Cunningham and the Mediterranean Fleet have had all that extra time to prepare...

 

[Tanner151]

Great stuff, Garrison.

Funny enough, Germany’s OTL success might be seen as a Nazi-wank in-universe due to the greater difficulties they’re experiencing.

 

[pandc]

September 7th – September 13th 1940 – North Africa - The Mers-el-Kébir Mutiny​

... When word reached Berlin Hitler and Raeder leapt to the conclusion that the mutiny had been an attempt on the part of some or all of the ships to defect to the Free French. Orders were sent out for German troops to be deployed to secure the ships at Toulon against any further such attempts ;;;

Just a question of detail, but one I hope you don't mind me asking: just how do German troops deploy to Toulon at this point in time? AFAIU in TTL, something like the OTL Vichy France remains unoccupied.

Thus, said deployment to Toulon would entail a major incursion into Vichy territory, in effect the extinction of Vichy as any kind of face-saving "independent" France, and hence the removal of any reason/excuse for the various elements of the French empire (and forces stationed therein) to continue to observe the armistice with the Axis.

Thanks for a great TL
Paul

PS thanks (very much) also for keeping the Lions "alive" - under the circs. can't really ask for more than two
PPS Also I trust we may presume that the KGVs are proceeding according to their original buildign schedule? This would mean KGV and PoW by end 1940, i.e. a fully-worked-up PoW by May 24 1941 ......