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ShatteredReality

ShatteredReality

Because I'm interested in making an election game, but I don't know if I'm knowledgeable enough to write all the scenarios - I would need someone's help.
 

Seleucus

I think this is the best you can do for the 2018 midterm scenario.

midterms.png


Closest races:

MS-special:
Espy (D): 515,635
Hyde (R): 464,216

TN:
Bredesen (D): 52.14%
Blackburn (R): 47.09%

MS-regular:
Baria (D): 46.25%
Wicker (R): 52.63%

TX:
O'Rourke (D): 53.0%
Cruz (R): 46.53%

NE:
Raybould (D): 45.29%
Fischer (R): 53.0%

AZ:
Sinema (D): 53.78%
McSally (R): 44.71%

NV:
Rosen (D): 54.40%
Heller (R): 44.37%

IN:
Donnelly (D): 53.84%
Braun (R): 42.94%

ND:
Heitkamp (D): 55.48%
Cramer (R): 44.14%

FL:
Nelson (D): 55.84%
Scott (R): 44.15%

MO:
McCaskill (D): 55.90%
Hawley (R): 41.55%

MT:
Tester (D): 57.47%
Rosendale (R): 40.58%
 

Seleucus

Some of these scenario mods are maybe a bit more swingy than would be realistic.

Apparently, Democrats could have won in a landslide in 1972 by nominating Wallace at a brokered convention

1972wallace.png



2008mod.png
 
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Ariosto

Ariosto

Seleucus said:
Some of these scenario mods are maybe a bit more swingy than would be realistic.

Apparently, Democrats could have won in a landslide in 1972 by nominating Wallace at a brokered convention
Click to expand...
The author admitted it was by design when I asked him about it, as he didn't want it to be impossible to win. However, that said, a landslide shouldn't be possible.​
 

Seleucus

Ariosto said:
The author admitted it was by design when I asked him about it, as he didn't want it to be impossible to win. However, that said, a landslide shouldn't be possible.​
Click to expand...
Well, a landslide is definitely possible as I just demonstrated. TBH having Wallace start 16% behind rather than 10% behind would be a decent quick fix.

Here's an example step by step guide for Wallace/Scoop Jackson ticket:

1) Talk to Shirley Chisholm (duh)
Status: 54.5% Nixon, 43.7% Wallace.
2) Attack busing and bigwigs at convention
3) "Henry Jackson is an incredibly qualified man. He's been in the Senate for two decades, and he's done a fine job there. I can't think of a better man for Vice President."
4) "They say you shouldn't punch down in politics. Right now, McCarthy is a third party candidate, and he'll only get more popular if I call attention to him. We'd be best off ignoring him entirely."
5) "Johnson needs to know that I'm a new man, not the segregationist he still thinks of when he hears my name. I'm happy to go to his ranch and see what he wants. Who knows, maybe we can have a good conversation while we're there."
Status: 48.2% Nixon 40.7% Wallace 9.5% McCarthy
6) "This just isn't a campaign to win. The party's more divided than it's ever been, and I can't tear it apart for a goal I most likely won't achieve. This campaign will be about unity and reconciliation as much as it is about taking the Oval Office."
7) "I disagree with the peace Democrats on a lot, but we can find common ground here in a number of places. I'm for a quick withdrawal, negotiations for peace, and the return of our boys from Vietnam."
8) "Absolutely not. Busing is wildly unpopular among my core base, and I'll score easy points with Republicans as well. We will come out against it, the same way we have in the primaries."
Status: 46.7% Nixon 42.3% Wallace 9.5% McCarthy
9) "We need Scoop's help with northern voters, or we're as good as dead. I'll promise him that I'll adopt some of his ideas, especially when it comes to civil rights. That should get him excited."
10) "We need to strike at the heart of the issue. Getting drugs off our streets is like pulling out weeds- you have to get down to the roots to remove them, which is why my administration would focus on smugglers, growers, and dealers."
Status: 45.7% Nixon 43.2% Wallace 9.7% McCarthy
11) "Why wouldn't we slim the budget if they have no war to fight? I'd prefer to see those funds used to help the average American at home, instead of disappearing into the pockets of war profiteers."
12) "I'm certainly in favor of Americans having good health insurance, but is federal bureaucracy really the best way to do it? This program will be a bloated mess that is better handled by private enterprise, and I can't say I'm a supporter myself."
Status: 45.4% Nixon 43.7% Wallace 9.5% McCarthy
13) "If we want any shot in this race, we need to bring Nixon’s numbers down to Earth. Let’s hit him with a nationwide attack campaign, slamming him on welfare, Vietnam, and his failed farm policies."
14) "It all comes down to leadership. If I can get people like Meany and Woodcock on board, the rest of the union men will fall into place, and we'll easily take the labor vote from Nixon."
Status: 45.4% Wallace 43.6% Nixon 9.5% McCarthy.
15) "This is less a failure of the welfare system we have in place, and more of a failure on Nixon's part. His administration has completely failed to support the common man. It's no wonder that the number of dependents has increased under his leadership."
16) "Trying to get kids to vote for you is like herding cats. They're all communists and drug freaks, anyways. I prefer to court voter blocks that will actually turn out this fall."
Status: 46.2% Wallace 42.9% Nixon 9.6% McCarthy
17) "These claims are ridiculous, and the best way to combat them is to show myself as an active campaigner. I will tour the nation, pound the pulpit, and bring crowds to their feet. Nobody can call me weak after a schedule like that." (ID 3296)
18) "Anyone can see I've changed in the last four years. I'm a reformed man. We're going to put out a televised statement addressing Nixon's false attacks, and put this to bed once and for all."
Status: 47.0% Wallace 42.1% Nixon 9.3% McCarthy
19) " Of course. I'm certain I could crush Nixon in a debate, and I'd love to make him look scared if he declines." (ID 1778)
20) "I'd like to put some region-focused ads up there. Emphasize my changed positions, my welfare stances, and my fight for the working man."
21) "I'm going to give them my standard stump speech, as I would to any worker, North or South. These big-wigs need to understand they're following me, not the other way around."
Status: 47.9% Wallace 41.8% Nixon 9.0% McCarthy
22): "Holy hell, what a break! We're going to be hammering him on this as long as we can manage, in every speech we have. I want people to know that Nixon's a crook!" (ID 3290)
23) "I'm not the right man to try and win these voters back - my record is too well known - but I think my running mate could have some real success with appealing to these voters. Let's put them out on tour."
24) "Let's lay this out for the average American. Members of the CRP broke into Democratic headquarters to steal documents and bug phones. Now, we must ask the question - did Nixon know? If so, when? And what sort of environment leads to these decisions?"
Status: 49.6% Wallace 40.1% Nixon 8.9% McCarthy
25) "This is outrageous! Just when you thought Dick Nixon couldn't go any lower, he sics the IRS on my family! Anyone can see how fishy this is, and I'm not going to waste a second attacking Nixon for his wasteful, illegal use of federal agencies!" (ID 3402)
26) "I don't want to mention this. Most people have moved on from this, and there's no way to gain ground on an issue where Nixon's actions were so popular."
27) "The Family Assistance Plan, as it stands, would actually cut back on the welfare programs we have in place. I think we can all agree that our welfare system needs reform, but this is not how we should go about it."
28) "If peace is at hand, how come American boys are still dying in Vietnam? Kissinger's peace isn't even finished, and he's praising it as if we're out. This is a blatant political move on his part, and no American should fall for it."
29) "I am not a racist, and I never have been! I am for reasonable change, unions, welfare, and an end to the endless Vietnam quagmire! Before you throw away your vote on candidates you may regret, stop and think - are you thinking of the Wallace of before, or the Wallace of no"
Status: 50.8% Wallace 39.2% Nixon 8.6% McCarthy

30) Pick whereever; none of the possible regions are close

Result:

Wallace 1972.png



Basically, attract McGovernites by being anti-Vietnam, attract conservatives with some red meat, and cheat the RNG.

You can also get a larger popular vote % (but smaller margin over Nixon) by being more liberal to take away McCarthy's support. Just pick the leftist answers for Qs 2 and 4 (with everything else the same.)

Leftist Wallace.png
 
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Seleucus

Ariosto said:
No no, I meant it shouldn't be possible in general. I never meant to imply that it was impossible in the current version of the scenario.​
Click to expand...
Yeah, the issue is that it currently is. Way too easy for Wallace currently. It shouldn't be possible for him to be ahead on Normal before Watergate. And it's hilarious that Nixon refuses to debate you when he's behind, and the "best" answer is to say that you've accepted your loss even when it's basically a tie.

The changes I'd suggest are:
- Wallace starts further behind
- McCarthy's numbers come largely out of Wallace (rather than equally spread right as right now)
- Conservative decisions that help Wallace should also help McCarthy (as some of his leftist supporters go to McCarthy.) Leftist decisions that help Wallace should also help Nixon (as some of his conservative supporters go to Nixon.)
 
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