"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL

Interesting. What does that work out to in terms of vote percentages?
The exit poll vote share works out to roughly:
  • National Party - 35%
  • Social Democratic Party - 27%
  • Socialist Alternative - 16%
  • Reform Party - 13%
  • Scottish National Party - 3%
  • Plaid Cymru - 2%
  • RISE - 1%
 
It seems the system crashes. Given it was produced by the Cardiff Agreement to ensure political peace a la Good Friday Agreements it could be sounding bad for UK.
Speaking about majorities, National+Reform has 230 seats, short of 19. SDP+SA+SNP+Plaid+RISE has 232, short of 17. So it’s all up on the “other parties”: Mebyon Kernow, Ecology Party, SDLP and NNP. I can’t see realistically an eight-parties coalition and, seeing IOTL LibDem and UKIP hostility, neither a majority with Reform and NNP on the same boat. So, either the exit polls are not correct or someone is going to split. My bet is Sugar passing to Dark Side of the political spectrum to save austerity and his warm seat.
 
So she's alive ITTL? Would be cool if you made a chapter about the Royal Family and how it has diverged from OTL if you feel like it
Diana still died I'm afraid, she had been fairly critical of the Junta and thus the conspiracies around her death are a lot more salient that OTL
 
I don't know if it's been asked already, but is Britain's electoral system still FPTP? If not, why and with what was it replaced?
 
Chapter 64: A Pox on Both Your Houses
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Many SDP voters opted to stay at home

“The two leading candidates in Britain’s general election agreed on only one thing yesterday – that Brits should vote in great numbers. William Hague, confident of the decisive victory, said on election day that a high turnout would “send a message to the whole world”. David Miliband, reminded the electorate that "Britain is at historic crossroads, and your vote is more important than ever”. And yet nowhere did great numbers of citizens heed their call. The stakes became high in these elections, with Britain staring at the spectre of EU intervention. Yet voter participation was down about 13% yesterday on the 74 per cent recorded in the rather dull elections of 2009. If not voting was a party, it would have clear victory with 39% of the vote. Some of yesterday’ apathy can be attributed to the predictability of the outcome, all opinion polls gave a commanding lead to National.”
- UK rebuffs call to send the 'world a message', Paddy Woodworth, Irish Times (2012)

The exit poll underestimated the wave cresting over the Social Democrats, the party was whipped down to a mere 133 seats. Even if they could get the Alternative, SNP and Plaid back singing from the same hymn sheet they would still be 30 seats short of an overall majority. A David Miliband premiership was mathematically almost impossible, for the first time in seven years, Britain’s social democrats would be returning to the opposition benches. Miliband’s spokesperson confirmed to the press the Social Democrats would not attempt to form a government, instead spending time in opposition for a period of reflection. They would follow sister parties in Spain, Italy and Greece, all being swept from power in the wake of the financial crisis.

This wasn’t to say it was a good night for National, they were still down almost 40 seats. Hague had simply been battered less than Miliband, leading him to win by default. Even with Reform on side, National would still need over a dozen seats to form a functioning government. Most options could be crossed off the list straight away, the Alternative, RISE and Forward Wales would never support a National Government. Instead Hague had three real options, option A was to find some common ground with the SNP. John Swinney said he would support either party in return for Scottish autonomy. Whilst Hague wasn’t instinctively anti devolution, a great deal of his backbenchers were, seeing the SNP as no different from RISE and the SNLA. Swinney was also likely to drive a hard bargain, knowing how damaging a deal with National could be.

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Both major parties feared the Alternative's support exploding in a second round of elections

The other two options included option B, a grand coalition with the SDP. Hague could cite the unprecedented crisis Britain faced, standing on the precipice of an EU bailout. Whilst this would give Hague a strong majority, his backbench MPs almost certainly wouldn’t accept it, not to mention the outrage from Social Democrat supporters. Miliband had made it pretty clear he wanted to take his party into opposition. The final option C was going back to the country for a second round of snap elections. Some in Hague’s top team suggested they could squeeze the smaller parties to win a solid majority, but the British people were tired and unmotivated, and the Alternative were in touching distance of becoming a real threat - it was a big risk.

“The SA was considered capable of profiting both from the losses of the SDP and from the emergence of the new OutRage! protest movement, and of entering Parliament with a stronger group than had been the case in the catastrophic election of 2009 (4.8% and 24 seats). In this election, the largest British union, Amicus switched its support from the SDP to the Alternative. Michael Meacher appeared in the campaign as a "parliamentary OutRager" and called on people not to boycott the elections, but to vote for the SA. This was not a cheap campaign stunt, but rather included a serious involvement of the OutRage! movement by the Alternative, as was shown by the process of drafting the party’s electoral programme in which OutRage leaders played a heavy role.” - The British Alternative’s parliamentary campaign of 2012, Report by Birgit Daiber, Rose Luxemburg Foundation (2012)

Hague decided to try and get his own government together first, starting with the easiest target, the Reform Party. In meetings with Sarah Brown, Hague promised his government would be a cooperative partner in Europe, pledging not to hold any referendums that would distance Britain from the European Union. He also promised to accept the bailout in full to stabilise the British economy. In return Reform MPs would provide confidence and supply to the Hague administration, helping him into Downing Street. The main sticking point during negotiations would be Scotland, Reform had been set up as an explicitly centralist and anti-devolution party, but Hague would need the support of Reform and the SNP to form a government. Brown agreed to soften her stance, stating that the SNP had moved far enough away from the SNLA to be considered a legitimate political party.

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The SNP had taken great pains to distance itself from the RISE, the SNLA and other "hard" nationalists

Hague decided to at least try and speak to the SNP first. Hague would dispatch a delegation, led by moderate Surrey MP Philip Hammond, to speak with the SNP’s negotiating team under Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh. The SNP demands were very simple: autonomy for Scotland, with a full Scottish Parliament, and a promise that Scotland would be spared the worst austerity under the EU bailout. Hague couldn’t promise a Scottish Parliament off the bat without collapsing his party, but instead he offered a Referendum on Scottish Autonomy, where both Reform and National would campaign against, this way both Hague and Brown could return to their caucus with a straight face saying they tried to stop Scottish Autonomy, despite the fact polls showed 73% of Scots favoured an autonomous Scottish region.

For over a month runners between National, Reform and the SNP went back and forth in negotiations, questions over how much austerity Scotland would be spared from, and Britain’s closeness with the EU would dominate these discussions. Disquiet on the National benches continued to build as hardliners feared even acknowledging the SNP as a legitimate political party by negotiating with them was the first step in a slippery slope towards Scottish independence. Hague had kept both the voting public and his party on side through obfuscation, keeping his true politics close to his chest. Hague was both a liberal reformer, and a hardliner - a friend to the military, and a champion of civilian democracy. Now William Vague had to play his cards.

“We the people of Britain will deliver, and will base our hope on ourselves, and so build a future for all. My friends, we are now faced with a very thankless task, but it will pass, because our efforts will not be in vain. The storm clouds will be dispelled, we will raise our heads up high and the day will once again dawn when people speak well of Britain. The day when we look over our shoulder and no longer even remember the sacrifices. That is the portrait of our duty. I am well aware that the stage onto which I now step will not be strewn with bouquets but I am used to facing such situations. I have not come this far to seek applause, but rather to try to resolve problems. That is my task and in it I call on the cooperation of all, and I will ask the House of Commons for its confidence. Thank you very much.” - William Hague’s Victory Speech to Party Faithful (2012)

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The Troika wasn't going to wait around, Hague needed a Government fast
 
I don't know if it's been asked already, but is Britain's electoral system still FPTP? If not, why and with what was it replaced?
It's uses a party-list system, with each province being granted a number of seats based on population.

Strangely enough, this is the system Spain uses.
Yes as Mr Engine said, Britain uses a form of D'Hondt PR, but with very small constituencies to favour the larger party, the seats are divided up between Britain's 40 provinces, with each province getting around 10-12 MPs each. Whilst there's no national threshold the small constituencies create a defacto threshold of 8-10% of the vote.
 
The main sticking point during negotiations would be Scotland, Reform had been set up as an explicitly centralist and anti-devolution party, but Hague would need the support of Reform and the SNP to form a government. Brown agreed to soften her stance, stating that the SNP had moved far enough away from the SNLA to be considered a legitimate political party.​

Hague decided to at least try and speak to the SNP first. Hague would dispatch a delegation, led by moderate Surrey MP Philip Hammond, to speak with the SNP’s negotiating team under Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh. The SNP demands were very simple: autonomy for Scotland, with a full Scottish Parliament, and a promise that Scotland would be spared the worst austerity under the EU bailout. Hague couldn’t promise a Scottish Parliament off the bat without collapsing his party, but instead he offered a Referendum on Scottish Autonomy, where both Reform and National would campaign against, this way both Hague and Brown could return to their caucus with a straight face saying they tried to stop Scottish Autonomy, despite the fact polls showed 73% of Scots favoured an autonomous Scottish region.
If you're following the Spanish precedent, I'm sensing café con todos is going to be a thing, even if the exact terminology will be different (given this is a conservative government we're talking about, I would not be surprised if something similar to the Chilean model could be used, at least at first for England (well, minus Yorkshire - the least one can do to make it more British is to over-complicate things, and in this case Yorkshire could serve as an easy Andalusia equivalent) and Northern Ireland.
 
Oh god this is going to be awful for civil society. He’s going to be forced to the polls against his will causing a horrific radicalisation (apathy voluntary voting forcing a “double-disso” situation towards parliamentary radicalisation rather than a “just fucking get on with it,” return to centre); or, SDP will grant a suicides confidence and supply leading to an uncivil society radicalisation as parliament doesn’t represent the politically engaged.

this is not a good constitutional position for a state where parliament is meant to ritualize and prevent public political violence. The Good Friday accords might have been real, but on the third day the stone was rolled away and the grave of militarized political life found empty

If you knew which Colonels were party boys you’d be murdering them in brothels or cottages now to prevent what they’d do
in six or sixty months time.
 
2012 Detailed Results
Hi team, sorry completely forgot to upload the results breakdown - here it is:
  • National Party- 174
  • Social Democratic Party - 126
  • Socialist Alternative - 73
  • Reform Party - 56
  • Scottish National Party - 20
  • RISE - 10
  • Plaid Cymru - 9
  • Forward Wales - 8
  • Sinn Fein - 6
  • Ulster Conservatives - 4
  • Worker's Party of Scotland - 3
  • Ecology Party - 2
  • Social Democratic and Labour Party - 1
  • Northern Irish Liberals - 1
  • Mebyon Kernow - 1
 
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Who are the biggest party in NI? Is it still 18 seats like OTL? Because a nationalist majority happening 10 years ahead of schedule is the kind of chaos I live for in
 
Who are the biggest party in NI? Is it still 18 seats like OTL? Because a nationalist majority happening 10 years ahead of schedule is the kind of chaos I live for in
Sinn Fein are the largest party in Northern Ireland, holding 6 of the 14 Northern Irish seats.

The Ulster Conservatives hold 4, National hold 2, the SDLP and Northern Irish Liberals hold one seat each at Westminster.

The current makeup of the Northern Irish Parliament is:
  • Sinn Fein - 9
  • Ulster Conservatives - 8
  • National Party - 7
  • Social Democratic & Labour Party - 5
  • Northern Irish Liberals - 3
  • Ecology Party - 1
So both communities are roughly equal in terms of political representation.
 
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Chapter 65: Tartan
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Hague would either become Prime Minister, or their would be a fresh set of elections

“After the joy of a victory in Monday's investiture Commons vote, William Hague has been given a timely warning of the enormity of the task facing him. Investors rained on Hague's victory parade by offloading British shares and government bonds. The conservative, pro-business MP won 250 seats in the investiture vote for a majority of 5. 240 MPs voted against, including the Social Democrats and Socialist Alternative. But there was no let-up from the markets. The spread between the benchmark 10-year government bond and the German equal was up 23 basis points at 464. The rest of the global markets also remained under pressure due to the sovereign debt crisis and concerns about the US economy.”
- Hague's election win celebrations cut short by sobering tasks ahead, BBC News Bulletin (2012)

Most international observers expected a second set of elections. With the Commons divided in four directions and neither Miliband or Hague seeming to have the numbers to form a Government. Bond traders continued to cash out of the British economy, seeing it as a sinking ship, and Britain’s economic hole continued to widen as the Troika lost patience. EU Commission President Viviane Reding warned that the EU’s bailout might not be on the table in a few months' time if the Brits went for another election. All parties feared a complete collapse of political confidence if a government couldn’t be formed over the next few months. Maybe it was fear of this collapse that led William Hague, Sarah Brown and John Swinney into a room together, maybe it was a sense of patriotic duty, or maybe it was pure machiavellian politics. Either way, both the SNP and Reform signed up to a Confidence and Supply deal with National.

This deal didn’t come free, much to the anger of National backbenchers. For the SNP Hague agreed to hold a Referendum on Autonomy, scheduled for the 18th June 2013, for Reform, Hague agreed to sign off the bailout deal as quickly as possible, no renegotiation like some of his eurosceptic members wanted. The Social Democrats were outraged, especially at the SNP’s betrayal, Scottish Social Democrats had long referred to the SNP as “Tartan Tories” and now they had been vindicated. Despite their protests Hague now had a majority in the House of Commons, and he would go to the Palace to be officially offered to form a Government, on New Year’s Eve 2012, William Hague became Prime Minister The White Russians were back in charge, the counter-revolution had begun, or so some feared.

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Army man Bob Stewart was tipped for a big promotion

William Hague Cabinet 2013-
  • Prime Minister - William Hague
  • Deputy Prime Minister - Theresa May
  • Chancellor of the Exchequer - Bob Stewart
  • Foreign Secretary - David Bannerman
  • Justice Secretary - Jeremy Clarkson
  • Defence Secretary - Nicholas Soames
  • Home Secretary - Steven Woolfe
  • Development Secretary - Jonathan Oates
  • Education Secretary - Jim Davidson
  • Industry, Tourism and Trade Secretary - David Davis
  • Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Secretary - Diane James
  • Public Administrations Secretary - Edward Llewellyn
  • Culture Secretary - Jeremy Hunt
  • Health Secretary - William Legge
  • Environment Secretary - Ed Davey
  • Housing Secretary - Nelson McCausland
“Britain's new conservative Prime Minister William Hague appointed his cabinet ministers on Wednesday. Hague named a cabinet of close advisers charged with reviving the sluggish economy while slashing spending. Bob Stewart, a former army Colonel, will head the Treasury, working alongside Industry Secretary David Davis. Stewart will lead a costly overhaul of British banks crippled by bad loans to property developers. Britain is at the centre of the euro currency bloc’s debt crisis on concerns its economy is too big to be bailed out with a Greek-style aid package. On Monday, Hague promised deep spending cuts at all levels of government to trim the deficit. He also offered tax breaks for companies in a bid to create jobs and stimulate the economy.” - British PM unveils new cabinet, France24 News Bulletin (2013)

Hague’s first Cabinet saw a rapid promotion of political allies, including Colonel Bob Stewart who was named Chancellor of the Exchequer to placate the military wing of the party, and Jeremy Clarkson to Justice, one of National Party's biggest hitters. David Bannerman, one of his party’s hardliners was moved to the Foreign Office whilst Steven Woolfe, one of National’s few ethnic minority MPs, was named as the country’s Home Secretary. Losers from the reshuffle included Hague’s old leadership rival General David Richards as well as moderate Nick Harvey. It would be wrong to call this a purge of the moderates; however, leading reformists such as Nicholas Soames and Jonathan Oates remained in powerful positions.

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Neither party seemed willing to stand up to the "Troika"

The one common thread throughout Hague’s Cabinet was their monetarist, and economically liberal ideals. Hague knew the bailout, and following austerity, would be painful and needed his Cabinet on board. Big military spenders like Richards got the axe, as well as other leading figures from National’s paternalistic statist wing. Whilst some in his Cabinet, like Bannerman and James were certainly eurosceptics, they all agreed to sign up to the bailout deal before being given their jobs. The void was calling to Britain's finances, and there was no time to waste. The first thing Hague did was present the EU bailout to the Commons, the exact same bailout he had voted against a few months earlier.

For the Social Democrats Hague’s quick acceptance of the bailout presented a problem. David Miliband could hardly vote against the bailout deal he helped to negotiate, but after the drubbing the party receive at the ballot box, and leftwards pressure from the Alternative and OutRage protests, voting for the bailout would further harm the party’s standing. Miliband would announce his plans to abstain on the bailout bill in the name of “cross party cooperation”. Despite the official whip line over 30 SDP MPs would rebel and vote against the bailout, but this wouldn’t matter, it passed by a landslide, Britain now had an extra 140 billion euros to play with. In this sense Hague had his first victory in that he had prevented immediate collapse.

“British prime minister William Hague on Wednesday announced sweeping cuts totaling €92bn. Hague raised sales tax by three percentage points, despite warnings this would damage consumer spending. He also cut unemployment payments, pledged to bring forward a move to retirement at 68 years old and reduced civil service pay. Promised changes to energy laws looked likely to increase electricity tariffs. The measures came the day after the House of Commons passed a €140bn banking bailout with strict conditions. The bailout insisted the UK follow the recommendations made by Brussels to cut a deficit that reached 8.9% of GDP last year. Those recommendations included the sales tax rise and pension changes.” - William Hague announces €92bn in austerity measures for UK, Raphael Minder, New York Times (2012)

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The OutRage! protests only grew larger
 
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