Was going to wait till tomorrow to post to here and Reddit for "optimal view times" but screw it. It's been a month and I'm tired of waiting. Enjoy.
Full resolution image here:
If you can drop an upvote on reddit I would appreciate it. Not because I'm a karma whore (though I am a little bit) but because it helps reddit's algorithm (especially within the first few hours) and will show it to more people, helping to spread the word.
Honestly, I didn't even know about the Oriental Crisis until I was deep into making the overall timeline. But learning how the Ottomans would have likely collapsed several decades earlier than IRL thanks to Egypt if not for European intervention (twice) really fascinated me.
IRL, the only Great Power that sided with Egypt in the 1830s was France, but with the French Monarchy only freshly reinstated (with an additional coup to boost), they were in no position to seriously challenge British and Russian interests.
I love the Oriental Crisis as I'm trying to be as realistic as I can in my Napoleonic Victory scenario, and the sheer absurdity of the Oriental Crisis allows me to make changes that, while extreme, can be solidly justified (yes, Persia's a stretch, but hey, French interests).
TLDR:
The French prevent the British and the Russians from intervening in the First Egyptian-Ottoman War, allowing for Muhammad Ali to declare independence and rip the most important parts of the empire from the Ottomans in the 1830s. France has a heavy hand in the negotiations and the Egyptians hold the capital, allowing for extremely favorable terms for France and Egypt and all but guaranteeing Ottoman collapse.
Next post will be the European powers putting aside their differences to carve up spheres of Influence in the Balkans Congress of Berlin style.
The lore is below (warning, long).
The 19th century has not been a kind one for the Ottomans, every decade bringing a new ailment to the Sick Man of Europe. In the first decade, Russia, due to Napoleon’s quagmire in Spain, dragged the Ottomans down in the devastating Russo Turkic war, where the Ottomans lost Bessarabia and were forced to recognize a small Serbian state. The second decade of the 19th century saw Napoleon seizing Bosnia and freeing Greece. The third decade was rapt with the issues caused by the other two. The little partitions bled the Sick Man greatly of wealth and manpower. The Ottomans limped by, just barely above bankruptcy, with depleted garrisons, coffers, but plenty of unrest.
Egypt, a previous vital organ, became a tumor of the Sick Man of Europe. While the 1820s were a decade of pestilential peace for the Ottomans, they were gloriously active for Egypt. Desiring to secure borderlands to keep the heartland of Egypt safe, Muhammad Ali expanded his borders in all directions. The Ottoman’s breadbasket secured territories ostensibly for “The Empire” but in reality for Egypt, such as the Sudan, Arabia, and the Bab El-Mandeb. Much like a tumor, Egypt acted with no regard for the Ottomans, and any riches acquired did not leave the borders of this state within a state. The Sublime Porte could do nothing but wait until their Egyptian Khedive turned their sights on territory within the empire to expand. That came in the fourth decade of the century. In 1831, a refused request to transfer Syria and the Levant triggered war. Muhammad Ali declared independence, the tumor taking most of the body with it upon separation. The Ottomans suffered a string of defeats culminating in the Battle of Konya in 1832, where the last of the Ottoman’s manpower was scattered and the Grand Vizir captured. There was literally nothing standing in the way between the Khedive and Constantinople but a temporary storm.
Russia and Britain, however, stepped in. The loss of Egypt would guarantee and accelerate the collapse of the Ottomans. No great power trusted any but the Sick Man of Europe to hold onto the strategic lands in the Balkans and Bosporus. Tsar Nicholas II mobilized an army to garrison Constantinople and Britain threatened blockade unless Muhammad Ali remain an Ottoman Vassal. Muhammad’s dreams for an independent modernized Egypt may have been dashed, if not for France. Napoleon II wanted allies to open potential fronts against Russia should coalitions again threaten France. Waiting five long years for an opportunity to expand against Britain and Russia’s policy of containment, he rallied to Egypt’s side. The Eagalet issued a counter ultimatum, mobilizing armies in French Illyria, threatening to invade the Balkans. As, if the other powers wouldn’t respect the Ottomans “internal issue”, neither would France. Such a move would spell immediate death for the Ottomans, as well as gurentee French dominance in the Balkans, plunging all the great powers into a messy, rushed scramble of a war for Balkan conquest and influence.
Russia was willing to take that gamble, and called on Austria and Britain to support them. Britain, however, believing control over the Bosporus and Mediterranean access would make Russia too powerful, polarizing Europe’s balance of power even more, refused. Austria, terrified of French retaliation, likewise declared neutrality. While furious, Tsar Nicholas II felt he could not face France alone, and backed down.
Thus, once the winter storm was over, Egypt’s armies marched into Constantinople unopposed, and found both the Sublime Porte and a French Diplomat waiting for him. Napoleon II had laid out his own plans for the Middle East.
Egypt would obtain independence, and receiving all of the levant and Syria, its new northern border defensibly set at the southeast Taurus mountains. For France’s aid, A defensive alliance, and generous offer of French loans and experts to help Modernize the Egyptian State, Muhammad Ali agreed to French demands. Napoleon II saw an opportunity for not one, but two anti-Russian allies. Qajar Persia, despite taking no part in the fighting, was to receive the Mesopotamian Vilayets and other “historic” Persian Lands in exchange for joining Napoleon’s growing defensive pact. Persia, having only recently lost dominion of the East Caucuses to Russia, naturally leaped at the opportunity to spite a mutual enemy.
The Oriental Crisis, between Egypt and the Ottomans, was thus won by the French. Russia now finds itself bordering the French Sphere not only in Europe but in the Caucasus and Central Asia as well. Should the coalitions be revived, they would no longer be confined to Europe.
The Ottomans are suffering. The Islamic Caliphate is in unrecoverable monetary and manpower deficits, and now majority Christian to boot. The other injuries sustained were minor, even if they bled. With the loss of Egypt, the Levant, and Mesopotamia, however, the Sick Man of Europe has lost its lungs. It is a matter of when, not if, the Ottomans collapse, and differences are put aside in Europe to cordially divide its corpse.
