Russia by allowing the landing of neutral ships was doing something that even France itself allowed itself, Russia should not be invaded for that. Yet Russia itself was preparing to seize the Duchy of Warsaw and, perhaps, establish a large Congress Poland. From there liberate Prussia if possible or stop for the moment.
Actually, this is correct but rather one-sided. To start with, Nappy and Alexander seriously dislike each other (quite understandable) and did not trust each other (even more so). This personal factor can’t be shrugged off because it was defining their actions and reactions.
Some of the processes had been going in parallel and some had been just token events.
Davout was entrusted by Napoleon with the task of organizing the "corps of observation of the Elbe" which, among other things included buildup of the Duchy’s military force. Army itself was approximately 60,000 but together with other Polish units it amounted to approximately 100,000. Quite obviously, this alone should ring an alarm bell to Alexander (against whom this army is being raised?).
It was agreed by the Peace of Tilsit (at least as interpreted by Alexander 😉) that sooner rather than later the French occupation of Prussia will be limited to the garrisons of few key fortresses/cities but actually, it kept increasing. Napoleon’s “explanation” was that Prussia is his ally and he can place any number of troops there.
Starting from 1810 Russia was conducting a major military reform to bring organization and the size of its army up to the modern standards, clearly with a view upon the coming conflict with France. By the time of Napoleon’s attack the standing field army was more than 400,000 and there were approximately 200,000 new troops in training, which participated in the campaigns of 1813-14 (IIRC, in 1812-13 approximately 400,000 new troops had been raised and accommodated by created new military structure).
Formally, Russia went to war with Britain but this was a classic “phony war”: Russia closed its ports after the British attack on Copenhagen in 1807 and Britain reciprocated by declaration of war and seized all (two) Russian ships in the British ports. However, in Lisbon Admiral Senyavin refused to obey Alexander’s order to help the French, declared his squadron neutral and eventually signed a convention with Admiral Sir
Charles Cotton, whereby the
Royal Navy was to escort the Russian squadron to
London, with the Russians still flying their flags. Moreover, Senyavin was to assume supreme command of the joint Anglo-Russian fleet (as the senior officer of the two). After various delays he was allowed to sail for Riga in 1809. Formally, this was Senyavin’s insubordination for which he was punished (and restored to service only by NI) but demonstration of the public attitudes was obvious.
Russian war with Sweden had been triggered by Alexander’s demand to maintain the CS but, contrary to the Tilsit Treaty, the French did not provide help.
By the Treaty of Tilsit Napoleon guaranteed independence of Oldenburg but in 1810 he annexed it. As a “compensation” the duke was offered some minor territory (even without a suitable residence). Napoleon’s explanation was two-fold: (a) the Duchy was surrounded by the expanded Empire and (b) the Duke did not supply troops for the war with Austria (explanation tgat he did not have an army was ignored).
Seemingly, an absolutely irrelevant action but there was a big “BUT”: the Duke was Alexander’s relative and
formally Alexander was the head of Oldenburg family.
The annexation and proposed “compensation” was making him a subject of the Emperor of the French, which was a slap on the face (Nappy was not naive enough not to understand this so the insult was clearly intentional). In response Alexander sent to the European courts a memorandum in which Napoleon was accused in violation of the international proprieties. Nappy got offended (yeah, sure) and demanded a retraction of the memorandum (diplomatic exchange on the subject continued all the way to 1812).
While Napoleon did not openly help the Ottomans in their ongoing war with Russia, he was clearly encouraging them not to make peace and openly gloated when received overly-optimistic report about alleged Ottoman victory at Ruschuk.
Besides memorandum, Alexander took practical measures for getting even with Nappy. While
formally not breaking with the CS, he introduced Tariff of 1810/11 which, while allowing imports/exports by the neutral ships also put a high import tariff on some traditional French imports (and IIRC some of these items had been forbidden for import). The items were not explicitly identified as “French”, just as carried by land. Nappy correctly interpreted it as slap on
his face.
As a response to the escalation of the French/German/Polish military presence in Prussia and the Duchy Alexander was concentrating his armies along the border and at some point demanded that the “extra” French troops should be moved East of the Oder River and, presumably, was ready to issue an order to cross the Nieman and advance into Prussia and the Duchy. Austrian declaration of a military alliance with France made such an action impossible.
Graphically, the whole situation can be presented as following:
For Napoleon this was becoming clear, Russia directly sent military divisions near the border in March 1811.
While Nappy was doing exactly the same in Prussia and the Duchy….
To top it off, Alexander refused to reply back.
Not sure what do you mean: there was a continued diplomatic exchange on all these subjects. Not that it led to something, especially taking into an account Nappy’s habit to brag about
his strength in the region. Not that Alexander was better in what he was doing but his diplomacy was a little bit subtler. 😉
Even if the slight violation of the Continental System (which everyone already did in one way or another) was forgiven, there would be war.
The war had very little to do with the CS except as an excuse and while the two macho men were getting closer to a war, the diplomats came to a mutually-acceptable agreement (which was going to be ignored by their bosses). On the CS it was agreed that the explicit anti-French provisions of the Tariff would be removed putting the French goods on the equal footing with the British. Nothing about a strict adherence to the CS.
Napoleon, as Napoleon is, thinks that the best defense is a good offense, that's why he has to invade Russia before Russia invades the Duchy of Warsaw.
The Duchy was created in 1807 and there was 1812. Escalation of the tensions started only after Davout’s appointment as a military administrator in the region. He was definitely the best person
administratively and the worst possible
politically.
But this is only what happened in OTL and he could have acted differently. For example, for a TL it could be argued that the Peninsular War, the Fifth Coalition and the birth of his heir affected him to a greater degree in OTL to the point that he now plays defensively (in a desperate attempt to hold on to it). that he has achieved and is afraid of losing [a fear based on how his army performed with half of its veterans in Spain and its declining vigor]).
Well, he could limit the French military presence in Prussia and maintain a much smaller army in the Duchy (which would be a lesser burden for its already damaged economy). The unnecessary antics, like annexation of Oldenburg, also can be avoided to minimize tensions with Russia.
And a relaxed version of the CS would be popular in Germany. Speaking of which, more subtle and lenient policy toward Prussia would not hurt either.
Let's say that Napoleon then withdraws his men from the Peninsula and returns Fernando VII. He creates a Kingdom of Poland with Murat at the head (José returns him to Naples) to capitalize on Polish nationalism.
Which would immediately spoil the relations with Russia. One of the points of contention was Napoleon’s refusal to guarantee that the Duchy is not going to be expanded and upgrading of its status would be a clear indication that such an expansion is being planned, most probably at the Russian expense. Polish nationalism could not help to raise more troops than already had been raised in OTL but kingdom status may give the hot heads some creative ideas regarding the “true” Polish borders.
And he is basing a defensive plan instead of an offensive one (which may perhaps be turned into an offensive one if Poland is given enough time to modernize its entire infrastructure).
Which would be what? A century (optimistically)? 😂
“For Poland the God invented the fifth element: the dirt.” Napoleon.