A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

[Chris S]

Spoiler: Current thinking

...The crunch is going to happen once things start getting better, probably in the early 1950s. That also starts to line up with a number of other problems - for instance, the UK was struggling with full employment causing a shortage of labour and issues with defence spending crowding out other parts of the economy. In OTL a large part of the solution to this was Sandystorm and eventually the withdrawal from East of Suez.
The US alliance which they don't have ITTL was crucial to this - and the ongoing colonial commitments means that they can't go down the purely nuclear weapons route. Manpower is going to be a severe limitation, leaves them with a conundrum which can only be solved by some combination of finding additional manpower and outsourcing a lot of their manufacturing. Using German made B-vehicles, tank engines, etc. is an easy win, as is recruiting Germans into the Foreign Legion. Anything else is a lot harder to get agreement to.

More importantly it has two larger and traditionally hostile powers on it's borders. As one of the occupying powers of Germany, Poland is going to feel in a much better position than before.
In any case, the logic of the OTL Cold War is going to come in: everybody has lots of nuclear weapons, and that means the war goes nuclear very fast if they end up being unable to hold a Soviet attack by themselves.

In regards to the the labour shortage and defence spending crowding out other parts of the economy, I would imagine that as in OTL there would have been some amount of recruiting and immigration from the West Indies, India and other parts of the Empire/Commonwealth which would then become restricted, but I do wonder in the absence of the alliance with the United States if they wouldn't consider recruiting soldiers from one part of the Empire to serve in another? Or look at more local recruitment of forces to maintain the Empire?

regarding recruiting Germans, the French I could see recruiting Germans into the Foreign Legion, whereas for the British they would probably take inspiration from their own foreign legions, the Gurkha Brigade and the Napoleonic era King's German Legion. Perhaps we might see the formation of a British German Brigade or Royal German Regiment?

EDIT: I also stumbled across these two resources which might be helpful:

A Hard Peace? Allied Preparations for the Occupation of Germany, 1943–1945 - The Perils of Peace - NCBI Bookshelf

British Interest in the Division of Germany after the Second World War on JSTOR

Josef Foschepoth, British Interest in the Division of Germany after the Second World War, Journal of Contemporary History, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Jul., 1986), pp. 391-411

www.jstor.org

The first refers to some amount of planning for the post-war occupation of Germany in OTL stretching back to December 1941. It also gives some pointers as to where further information of that particular planning might be found ( the Combined Chiefs of Staff Committee). It gives outlines on the British, American, Soviet and French planning. The American and Soviet sections might even be useful to see how they impacted on British and French planning in OTL and what their absence would mean for British and French planning in TTL.

The second looks at British interest in the division of Germany after the Second World War in OTL. You have to register to read the full article but registration is free (registration lets you read 100 articles per month).

 

[naraht]

As a thought for the USSR's and responsibilities. Assuming a worst case scenario for Japan (The IJA attacking into FIC without bother to inform the IJN they'll be at war with the Entente leading to the shelling of the IJA HQ and fights on the streets of Tokyo, etc, etc.), how long until China can get enough of their act together that the Soviets feel that they need to increase their forces in Northeast Asia?

 

[Popcorn]

With everything that’s been butterflied away so far, will Wrigley Field have night games in 1942?

 

[pdf27]

With everything that’s been butterflied away so far, will Wrigley Field have night games in 1942?

Can't see why they wouldn't. The butterflies in the US pre Pearl Harbor are pretty minimal, and they were already committed to installing lights at that point.

 

[naraht]

I was thinking that this TL may have *zero* non-german leaders (and maybe zero non-germans period) put on capital trial for supporting the 3R by either the Entente or even their own people.

(Working from West to East-ish).
France: forcibly retired those that had functionally retired Paris, I don't think any of them will merit the Death Penalty.
Belgium: Leopold III is in *slightly* less trouble than iOTL and so I expect nothing worse that OTL.
Netherlands: It is unclear what happened with Anton Mussert, that may depend on whether the Eastern Netherlands were ever turned over to local control by Dutch such as the National Socialist Movement.
Norway: I'm not sure whether Quisling rose to the level of a Capital Trial iTTL. He's sort of a person without a country at this point.
Denmark: Not sure anyone even qualified iOTL.
Austria: No idea.
Slovakia: I think leaving Tiso where he is might be the most stabilizing course for Czechoslovakia, not sure
Poland: No ida.

 

[Lord Khuzdul]

Austria: No idea.

Seyss-Inquart. He is going to hang, I'd imagine. Not only he sold his country to Nazis, but also he was in the administration of Poland.

 

[naraht]

Seyss-Inquart. He is going to hang, I'd imagine. Not only he sold his country to Nazis, but also he was in the administration of Poland.

True. (yeah, Poland and Austria flip a coin) He almost certainly doesn't end up in the Netherlands iTTL. The other non-German that I forgot was Terboven in Norway.

 

[HJ Tulp]

Netherlands: It is unclear what happened with Anton Mussert, that may depend on whether the Eastern Netherlands were ever turned over to local control by Dutch such as the National Socialist Movement.

Mussert hid in Huizen during the German Invasion, which is on the Dutch side of the Waterline I believe. Not sure where Rost van Tonningen and Van Geelkerken were in May 1940 but regardless I doubt that the Germans will set up a puppet regime. They didn't OTL and in this scenario the whole country is practically part of the frontline.

 

[pengolodh_sc]

Norway: I'm not sure whether Quisling rose to the level of a Capital Trial iTTL. He's sort of a person without a country at this point.

On April 9th, before the POD, he tried a a coup, to seize power in Norway, he tried to order the arrest of the King and the government, and tried to order all Norwegian ships in foreign waters to seek a neutral or German-friendly port. I think he will still be seen as a traitor

The other non-German that I forgot was Terboven in Norway.

When did Terboven stop being German?

 

[naraht]

Mussert hid in Huizen during the German Invasion, which is on the Dutch side of the Waterline I believe. Not sure where Rost van Tonningen and Van Geelkerken were in May 1940 but regardless I doubt that the Germans will set up a puppet regime. They didn't OTL and in this scenario the whole country is practically part of the frontline.

I'm not sure what Dutch city would be considered *safely* behind the front lines, Groningen?

On April 9th, before the POD, he tried a a coup, to seize power in Norway, he tried to order the arrest of the King and the government, and tried to order all Norwegian ships in foreign waters to seek a neutral or German-friendly port. I think he will still be seen as a traitor



When did Terboven stop being German?

Yes, but the death penalty had been functionally abolished in 1905 for all but a few crimes. The question is whether Quislings actions iTTL before he was essentially sidelined to Terboven rise to that level The Quisling regime brought back wider Death Penalty in 1941 and the Norway London Cabinet had also done so and expanded it in 1942 to include torture and murder.

Oops. you are right, for some reason I thought Terboven was Norwegian. Terboven may even die with Wilhelm Rediess as iOTL, though not of suicide. (Not sure of the method of execution the Norwegians used in the 20th century. )

In Denmark, OTOH, the closest equivalent to Terboven is Cécil von Renthe-Fink, who was the German plenipotentiary. iOTL he served in this position in Denmark until 1943 and he lived until 1964 iOTL, If the Danes didn't want him dead iOTL, they aren't going to iTTL. Heck, I'm not convinced the Danes would want him *arrested* iTTL.

 

[von Mises]

Yes, but the death penalty had been functionally abolished in 1905 for all but a few crimes. The question is whether Quislings actions iTTL before he was essentially sidelined to Terboven rise to that level The Quisling regime brought back wider Death Penalty in 1941 and the Norway London Cabinet had also done so and expanded it in 1942 to include torture and murder.

Shorter occupation, less opportunity for the Nazi's to do their thing and the Death Penalty only being reintroduced after the PoD all make me think Quisling is probably going to do a substantial amount of porridge, but dodge a bullet here.

 

[HJ Tulp]

I'm not sure what Dutch city would be considered *safely* behind the front lines, Groningen?

Groningen is pretty close to the Waddenzee though, which is bound to see infiltration if not outright littoral warfare. Maybe Maastricht or Venlo?

 

[Post]

Groningen is pretty close to the Waddenzee though, which is bound to see infiltration if not outright littoral warfare. Maybe Maastricht or Venlo?

I'm pretty sure that ITTL the frontline in 1940 in the Netherlands was the dutch waterline. Which means all the places mentioned (including Huizen) were under German control at that time.

Dutch Waterline - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[HJ Tulp]

I'm pretty sure that ITTL the frontline in 1940 in the Netherlands was the dutch waterline. Which means all the places mentioned (including Huizen) were under German control at that time.

Dutch Waterline - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

For some reason I always manage to completely screw up with regards to the position of the Gooi- en Vechtstreek towns relative to Utrecht. Mea Culpa.

EDIT: While this probably means that Mussert is in safe hands on the German side, this still doesn't mean that practically the whole of the Netherlands isn't part of the frontline-area though.

 

[Post]

For some reason I always manage to completely screw up with regards to the position of the Gooi- en Vechtstreek towns relative to Utrecht. Mea Culpa.

No problem. I had to check the map too, because I initially thought Huizen was just behind the waterline.

EDIT: While this probably means that Mussert is in safe hands on the German side, this still doesn't mean that practically the whole of the Netherlands isn't part of the frontline-area though.

Probably in 1940. The question is what happened to him when the Entente advanced. I don't think he was mentioned.

 

[Orcbuster]

Yes, but the death penalty had been functionally abolished in 1905 for all but a few crimes.

Was reinstated shortly after start of war. Quisling was effectively trialed for crimes commited before reinstatement of the death penalty (no one minded, he was basically the most hated norwegian of all time from the instant germany declared war on norway). So Quisling will likely be shot as per OTL.

 

[avernite]

Groningen is pretty close to the Waddenzee though, which is bound to see infiltration if not outright littoral warfare. Maybe Maastricht or Venlo?

I don't think any of those could serve as a fashionable base for a collaborator government; Arnhem or Nijmegen have more direct links to the Ruhr, are safely away from the front barring a Dutch breakout (and until that happened thanks to the British, it probably seemed unlikely), and are probably key logistic links inside the half-Netherlands as well.

Of course, I still think that's sooner going to be the HQ of a German army in the Netherlands rather than the capital of a Dutch collaborator government.

 

[jonnic123]

So far as I can tell, Syngrou prison is one of the few on the mainland that did house communist prisoners - albeit fairly low level ones.


It is, isn't it


You might think so, I couldn't possibly comment.

Francis Urquhart approves this message 😄

 

[Deaf Peregrine]

Why hasn't Italy joined the pile on? Benito said "I only need a few thousand dead so that I can sit at the peace conference as a man who has fought".

 

[pdf27]

Why hasn't Italy joined the pile on? Benito said "I only need a few thousand dead so that I can sit at the peace conference as a man who has fought".

Too slow to react - this collapse has come extraordinarily fast, and of what warning there was none reached Italy. In real time (rather than writing-time!) we're only about 2 weeks after the Entente attack started - and before that everybody expected things to be quiet until the spring.

One other thing to note - the terrain they would have to attack over is absolutely hideous, and the Italian army has some very bad corporate memories of attacking over it. Indeed, Mussolini fought in the second and third battles of Isonzo (there were eventually twelve) which was on vastly less difficult terrain than they would need to cross to attack into Austria.