How much longer would USA stay neutral if Japan had no declared war on USA?

[marathag]

Pacific War follows a recognizable facsimile of our RTL and Japan is bulldozerkrieged by 1945.

But without the sneak attack, the US Public won't be 100% for stomping the Japanese into tiny little pieces, and then setting fire to the remains
You won't have recruitment offices overflowing, and rationing will not be accepted as much as OTL, War Bond drives will not be as successful
It's not going to be a Total War effort.

 

[Gillan1220]

Japan did not declare war OTL.

Japan did declare war in OTL. The declaration came late to the U.S. Secretary of State's desk. While the peace talks were ongoing, the attack on Pearl Harbor was happening concurrently.

 

[wcv215]

Japan did declare war in OTL. The declaration came late to the U.S. Secretary of State's desk. While the peace talks were ongoing, the attack on Pearl Harbor was happening concurrently.

It did not. Japan's "late" message was that they were withdrawing from the talks. It was NOT a declaration of war.

 

[Alanith]

As per OTL, where Japan did not declare war? Precisely December 8th, 4 PM EST.

 

[McPherson]

As per OTL, where Japan did not declare war? Precisely December 8th, 4 PM EST.

Monthly in fact promptly on the 8th. They wanted to make sure the Americans knew that they declared war.

Japanese declaration of war on the United States and the ...​

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

The thing is that isolationist sentiments were really only directed against Europe and NOT the Pacific, pretty much at any point in US history.

It’s not inconceivable to get a strictly neutral towards Europe policy but it’s really hard to sustain isolationism against the Japanese in this time period.

 

[Questerr]

OK, June 1942.
FDR gets his DoW on Japan.

Now what?
Bomb Taiwan with the few B-17E that had come off the production lines since last September? Move the BBs to Cavite?

Zerg rush into New Guinea?

Cut Japanese supplies lines and force them to come back to the Philippines and fight.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The USA was as 'at war' with Germany as I think you could get without actually being at war prior to Germany's declaration

Just look at what the USN was doing in the Atlantic escorting convoys etc, 'invaded' Iceland on July 8th 1941, the USN stood up an airbase with 2 PBY Squadrons in August.

The worlds largest tank factory was under construction in Detroit...and not for a laugh!

 

[marathag]

Cut Japanese supplies lines and force them to come back to the Philippines and fight.

Ok, that's a good outline.
Which supply lines? With Subs, USAAF level bombers, or light cruisers sent out raiding, or cut lines by invading islands? Go for the throat and invade Taiwan in late 1942?

 

[Garrison]

The USA was as 'at war' with Germany as I think you could get without actually being at war prior to Germany's declaration

Just look at what the USN was doing in the Atlantic escorting convoys etc, 'invaded' Iceland on July 8th 1941, the USN stood up an airbase with 2 PBY Squadrons in August.

The worlds largest tank factory was under construction in Detroit...and not for a laugh!

And the first US naval casualties of the war were in the Atlantic, it was war in all but name and played a large part in Hitler's declaration after Pearl Harbor along with the ever increasing flow of Lend-Lease to the British and the Soviets. Add in the pressure from the Kriegsmarine to let their U-Boats loose in US coastal waters and its not going to be long before its officially a war.

 

[Questerr]

Ok, that's a good outline.
Which supply lines? With Subs, USAAF level bombers, or light cruisers sent out raiding, or cut lines by invading islands? Go for the throat and invade Taiwan in late 1942?

Place surface actions groups and subs astride the sealanes Japan’s transports need to use to supply their forces.

 

[McPherson]

Place surface actions groups and subs astride the sealanes Japan’s transports need to use to supply their forces.

IJNAS will have a say with Mister RIKKO.

 

[Questerr]

IJNAS will have a say with Mister RIKKO.

And the fully mobilized US Navy will be there to greet them.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

And the fully mobilized US Navy will be there to greet them.

This runs into one of the reasons the PI were 'indefensible'. Congress had never allocated money to establish a naval base there which would support the fleet. Cavite was built with the Asiatic squadron as its template. But, it was wholly incapable of supporting the battle fleet or Pacific fleet as it existed in 1941. Oahu was the western most harbor the Pacific Fleet could be supported. Anything further out would have to be built up. This is why the S pac operations of 1942 & early 1943 were based on Wellington New Zealand. It was the most developed port in the region to start building on. Reinforcing Admiral Harts Asiatic fleet of cruisers & submarines was not practical given Cavites capacity and that was one of the reasons pre war plans included withdrawing the Asiatic fleet to Dutch or British naval bases. Singapore or Java would accommodate reinforcements.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

WPO was made before the Two-Ocean Navy Act. Even 6 months later the PI would be a much harder nut to crack. It still might fall but it is going to be a hell of a lot bloodier for the Japanese.

The uptodate version was rolled into the RAINBOW Plans. Kimmel's WPP-46 dated March 1941 was the Pacific Fleets playbook for its role in WP ORANGE or the new RAINBOW Plans. Other than scale Nimitzs Central Pacific campaign of 1943-44 would have looked very familiar to Major Ellis as he updated WP O in 1922.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Pretty much it screws Japan (as war is declared because of a "gulf of tonkin" sort of incident) and helps Germany, which avoids Torch until 1943. Start bombing delayed 6 months. D-Day can actually fail in 1944. Might succeed, but the possibility of failure actually exists. Germany probably loses the war when a-bombs start dropping.

My take is such a incident occurs in December, or January 42 at the latest. A Neutrality Zone surrounding the PI like that in the North Atlantic would have been near impossible for the Japanese to avoid violating. Any attempt by the US to enforce Neutrality would have at some soon occurring point triggered a violent reaction by local Japanese commanders.

Admiral Hart had been in Manilia as late as 6th December updating combined war plans with MacArthur.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

....

American isolationism before the war is often exaggerated. ...

Certainly in the case of Asia. The Asiatic Squadron was permanently stationed in Asia, the 4th marines and Army 15th Infantry were posted in China for decades. In 1927 a Marine Expeditionary Brigade was sent to Shanghai along with reinforcements for the Asiatic Squadron. In Latin America the Banana Wars continued into the 1930s.

 

[Gillan1220]

My take is such a incident occurs in December, or January 42 at the latest. A Neutrality Zone surrounding the PI like that in the North Atlantic would have been near impossible for the Japanese to avoid violating. Any attempt by the US to enforce Neutrality would have at some soon occurring point triggered a violent reaction by local Japanese commanders.

Admiral Hart had been in Manilia as late as 6th December updating combined war plans with MacArthur.

It would just take an overzealous Japanese commander or pilot to assign air attacks into Luzon from Formosa. And that will probably bring the U.S. into a war but probably not in the scale of Pearl Habor. Unless the Japanese then bomb Manila, then I could see a "Rally Around the Flag" calling for war against Japan.

 

[Clandango]

Monthly in fact promptly on the 8th. They wanted to make sure the Americans knew that they declared war.

Japanese declaration of war on the United States and the ...​

I do wonder when the Japanese actually delivered the message to the British and Americans, as this link and other sources I read in the past mentioned it being in the newspapers in Japan before the US or UK were told. Anyone know if the Japanese sent the message to the those two countries before either declared war on Japan? Given how close Japan is to the international date line, and how quickly things happened, I imagine there would need to be a lot of cross referencing for timezones and exact times. Assuming the Japanese diplomats in the West were given advance warning on this. Ehhh, back on topic I suppose. Was the Burma Road still going strong at this time? I forget if it was that airdrops brought in more supplies or less than Chinese soldiers and workers carrying them did,

 

[McPherson]

I do wonder when the Japanese actually delivered the message to the British and Americans, as this link and other sources I read in the past mentioned it being in the newspapers in Japan before the US or UK were told. Anyone know if the Japanese sent the message to the those two countries before either declared war on Japan? Given how close Japan is to the international date line, and how quickly things happened, I imagine there would need to be a lot of cross referencing for timezones and exact times. Assuming the Japanese diplomats in the West were given advance warning on this. Ehhh, back on topic I suppose. Was the Burma Road still going strong at this time? I forget if it was that airdrops brought in more supplies or less than Chinese soldiers and workers carrying them did,

The 14 part message before Pearl Harbor was Demarche that amounted to a declaration of war. The message arrived after the Americans decoded it and read it during the attack. Japanese typewriters were slower than their American Kanji counterparts. I cover this in "Those Marvelous Tin Fish."