So it's time we see Bonaparte finally fall... Although he may lose, I got a feeling France will at least have a better hand then IOTL.
The shorther the war is for France (and everybody else), the better. For starters, France will be better off if the Hundred Days do not happen (France keeps some Revolutionary conquests it lost in 1815), and the population will be bigger as a shorter war means less casualties. Or at least that's the thing on paper. IOTL the French lost close to a million and a half men during the entire cycle of wars put together, a higher percentage of their population than during WW1, mind you, which was of roughly 1.3M, extrapolating the losses to France's 1914 population would result in 2.1 million casualties. So yeah, France's demographics will improve compared to IOTL with a shorter war. Most of the battles of the Napoleonic wars took place outside of French soil, meaning France escaped most of the war destruction suffered by Spain or Germany, plus the Coalition was very lenient with payments IOTL of 28 million pounds and a debt that did not even reach 200 million pounds until 1830 (compared to Britain's 848 million in 1815). So yeah, you can safely assume that ITTL France will be stronger than in our own timeline.

Spain seems to be doing better, at least I hope that when the war ends, Spain at least begins to restrict the power of the king.
Spain tried IOTL and resulted in a whirlpool of violence and coup attempts as Ferdinand refused to concede any power and had the support of a population willing to see the king return, plus he avoided the Spanish army all the way to Valencia where in the Manifest of the Persians denounced the Junta and assumed full control. As a little spoiler, that's not going to happen here. This does not say that things will be pretty, though.
 
I believed that all the support he had is because he was away from the throne for too long, combined with the fact that in Spain the situation with the new king made people sympathize with him. I imagine that Spain would do better and the invasion in less time, the king would not have so much sympathy and the colonies would not reveal themselves.
 

Gabingston

Kicked
The shorther the war is for France (and everybody else), the better. For starters, France will be better off if the Hundred Days do not happen (France keeps some Revolutionary conquests it lost in 1815), and the population will be bigger as a shorter war means less casualties. Or at least that's the thing on paper. IOTL the French lost close to a million and a half men during the entire cycle of wars put together, a higher percentage of their population than during WW1, mind you, which was of roughly 1.3M, extrapolating the losses to France's 1914 population would result in 2.1 million casualties. So yeah, France's demographics will improve compared to IOTL with a shorter war. Most of the battles of the Napoleonic wars took place outside of French soil, meaning France escaped most of the war destruction suffered by Spain or Germany, plus the Coalition was very lenient with payments IOTL of 28 million pounds and a debt that did not even reach 200 million pounds until 1830 (compared to Britain's 848 million in 1815). So yeah, you can safely assume that ITTL France will be stronger than in our own timeline.


Spain tried IOTL and resulted in a whirlpool of violence and coup attempts as Ferdinand refused to concede any power and had the support of a population willing to see the king return, plus he avoided the Spanish army all the way to Valencia where in the Manifest of the Persians denounced the Junta and assumed full control. As a little spoiler, that's not going to happen here. This does not say that things will be pretty, though.
Plus the French might still have their colonies in Southern India and Western Australia.
 
Plus the French might still have their colonies in Southern India and Western Australia.
Those are a given if the Bourbons are restored to the throne, which they will.

I think they also have Louisiana, unless the Spanish ask for it back when Napoleon is defeated.
That's going to be discussed in the next chapter. As of the current developement of the TL that you can see, Louisiana is the only major French colony remaining in Imperial hands.
 

Gabingston

Kicked
Those are a given if the Bourbons are restored to the throne, which they will.


That's going to be discussed in the next chapter. As of the current developement of the TL that you can see, Louisiana is the only major French colony remaining in Imperial hands.
I put "might" because the British love nabbing other countries' colonies during wartime.
 
With that said, I'm guessing they take some French colonies in the Caribbean, maybe even the big prize that is Saint-Domingue/Haiti.
Haiti is a completely different beast, the reason it was so profitable was because of the slave economy there, and with the wars still raging there because the locals don't want to be slaves no longer, whoever rules France will need to maintain the "no more slavery" part if they want Haiti to maintain it's connection to France.
 
Chapter 24: Caesar and Hispania
~ Chapter 24: Caesar and Hispania ~

Bailén was a shock to the French, and a cause of jubilation in Spain. The British could hardly believe the magnitude of the victory the Spanish had just pulled off, with their forces remaining passive in Portugal despite Floridablanca asking them to enter Spain and help foster the defence. The Imperial Army fled Madrid and retreated across the Ebro River, lifting the siege of Saragossa, a brutal siege in which many civilians and military men perished, including the commander of the Spanish forces, José de Palafox, when a roof tile fell on his head [1], with Castaños assuming command of the Army of the Ebro as well, for a grand total of close to 100,000 active soldiers, albeit only roughly a third were properly trained, with the rest being civilian and patriot militias that barely knew how to use a gun, albeit Spanish and British officials were desperately trying to give them a lesson or two about war [2].

The Spanish also launched a counterattack against the French everywhere else. The French portion of Santo Domingo that was still held by the Imperials was dealt with swiftly once a Spanish force invaded and defeated the French at the Battle of Palo Hincado. This left only one remaining French colony: Louisiana. Louisiana had been a French colony before being ceded to Spain in 1762, and it was given back to the French in 1801 as per the Treaty of Aranjuez. Napoleon desired to create an American empire out of Louisiana, hopefully securing alliances with the American Republics to expel the British from the continent. However, as Leclerc’s Haitian expedition perished in disease and the Republics universally refused to collaborate with the emperor, Louisiana was seen as nothing but a backwater that Napoleon only kept for prestige reasons [3].

Louisiana’s sheer size and small population impeded a proper defense of the territory, and as a matter of fact the French only had control from Saint Louis to the south, and only in the Mississippi thanks to scattered outposts such as Nouvelle Madrid or Natchez. Even there, French control was purely theoretical, as there were only a handful of Imperial troops in Louisiana, most of them quartered in New Orleans, and no orders were coming from Paris. Thus, in the period from 1801 to 1808 Louisiana enjoyed virtual self-government, only being threatened to the north, when a British expedition captured Saint Louis in 1806 but did not push further south, fearing to draw in Spanish attention. However, in 1808 the tables flipped and Louisiana was now surrounded by enemies on all sides. A Coalition Army, mostly composed of the Spanish Army of Cuba, landed near New Orleans on December 16 1808, bombing the fortifications of the city and laid siege to it for two weeks before the city surrendered. By spring, all of Louisiana was controlled by the Coalition, and it was effectively annexed back to Spain after the Junta renounced the Treaty of Aranjuez. For most Louisianans, the return of Spanish rule was met with ambivalence. Louisianans were, generally, very royalist and conservative people and were willing to trust a restored government, however their experience with practical independence had left a mark in the territory, and the lenience of the Spanish authorities only reinforced this belief, which would rear its head again in a decade [4].

New Orleans 1798.jpg

Map of New Orleans in 1798. Not much changed during the decade of French rule

Going back to the events in Europe, Bailén was a shock for Napoleon. The emperor was infuriated and decided to take personal command of the armies there, rearranging them under the title of “Army of Spain”, for a grand total of roughly 260,000 men, more than doubling its Spanish counterpart. The first engagement of this renewed Spanish campaign happened at the Battle of Zornoza, where Irish-Spanish general Joaquín Blake successfully stalled Lefebvre’s forces as he decided to attack before the time Napoleon told him to, which allowed the Spanish to escape in good order and report the offensive. The next battle was also sour for the French, as Blake successfully avoided the French trap with crafty maneuvers and led marshall Claude Victor into a trap of its own at Valmaseda on November 5 1808, defeating the French. Napoleon took this badly, for his army could not be defeated by “an army of bandits led by monks”, and severely reprimanded Victor.

The Spanish Army had spent months training its forces and invited the British army of Sir John Moore (30,000 men) and Sir David Baird (12,000 men) to Spain, along with a 4,000 men-strong French royalist army headed by Pichegru. The bulk of the British army marched to the north, into Old Castille, León and Cantabria, while rearguard forces remained in Galicia and Portugal [5]. After Valmaseda, Victor was itching for revenge, and decided to rush his attack and prove Napoleon that he was a competent commander, launching a frontal attack against the Spanish at Espinosa de los Monteros. Victor’s force consisted of 21,000 men, including a contingent of Poles from the Grand Duchy of Warsaw, while the opposing Spanish force was of 34,000 men, commanded by La Romana and Blake. The first assault by Victor was an utter disaster as his forces could not even make a dent on the Spanish formation, so on the morning of November 11 he attempted an attack on Blake’s left flank, which again was repelled [6]. Victor received orders to keep the Spanish engaged, allowing for Soult’s army to move south into Castille, and Victor was successful in this mission, however Napoleon would dismiss him for taking massive casualties at Espinosa de los Monteros, which was, after all, a Spanish victory, as the victors of Austerlitz and Jena could not win that day.

Espinosa de los Monteros.png

French Cavalry at the Battle of Espinosa de los Monteros

Napoleon’s plan consisted on a double envelopment, with the French right flank advancing through the coast and near the Cantabrian Cordillera, while the left flank would advance across Navarre into the Ebro, and from there into Castille; with a secondary offensive taking place in Catalonia in order to relieve the trapped garrison of Barcelona. The truth being that by early November the French, commanded personally by Napoleon, were already at Burgos, but the presence of Castaños’ army based on the Queiles River posed a threat to the French flank, so on November 18 Napoleon ordered marshal Lannes to march to Tudela, where Castaños had placed the core of its defensive line, having 58,000 men against Lannes’ force of roughly 40,000 [7], believing the Spanish forces to be dispersed in a wide front, and finding them placed in the hills across the Queiles between Tudela and Cascante (which had a bridge across the Ebro River). On the night of November 22 the first combat ensued as the French vanguard clashed with the Spanish at Corella and Cintruénigo, and the next day the battle ensued as Lannes struck the Spanish defences at Cerro de Santa Bárbara.

The battle commenced well for the Spaniards, as they repulsed the first attack, however General Manuel de La Peña fumbled the defense by his lack of initiative at protecting a gap south of Tudela, which had to be fixed rapidly with reinforcement troops that were beaten (their rifles barely worked) and the French under Alexandre Digeon poured in, splitting the Spanish force temporarily before a fierce counterattack of the Spanish cavalry closed the gap. Castaños considered that continuing the battle there could lead to a disaster and retreated south of the Ebro towards Cascante with all of his forces [8], opening the path to Aragon as Castaños retreated towards Soria, heading for Madrid. Lannes continued southeast along the Ebro, reaching Saragossa in early December and capturing the city after a short siege on December 27 [9].

Tudela.png

General Castaños at the Battle of Tudela

The campaign of 1808 would be decided further south. Napoleon marched south towards the Central Range that divides the two Spanish plateaus with the aim of crossing it and threatening Madrid. General Eguía was well aware of this and dispatched a force of 14,000 men to Somosierra under General Heredia and 6,000 to Sepúlveda. Napoleon’s forces headed towards the Somosierra pass, first encountering the defenders of Sepúlveda, who successfully withstood an attack of the French Imperial Guard, retreating when reinforcements arrived. At Somosierra, the Spanish had superior artillery located at the mountains, with Heredia ordering it to be protected [10]. On November 30, Napoleon ordered charge after charge of the cavalry, including the Polish Light Cavalry Regiment, which was decimated by the Spanish even if they managed to reach the cannons, with their commander Jan Kozietuslki perishing when a cannon exploded next to him. Napoleon grew impatient, as the Spanish kept resisting wave after wave of attacks. The French only crossed Somosierra on December 2 when the Spanish ran out of artillery rounds and retreated in good order towards Madrid. Somosierra was celebrated as a major victory, for the French emperor (arguably) had been defeated in person, suffering thousands of casualties compared to barely 800 Spaniards dead.

By that time the vanguard of Castaños’ army was about to reach the French rearguard at Somosierra, and Napoleon had to turn around and face him leaving a token force south of the Somosierra pass to guard it. Both forces collided on December 7 at the Battle of Riaza, in which Castaños’ forces were given a bloody nose by the French, as they had marched hurriedly towards the battlefield and the Spanish forces lacked discipline, with Castaños ultimately taking a longer route towards Madrid through the pass at Alcolea del Pinar. However, the battle gave Eguía extra time to prepare the defense of Madrid, calling back San Juan’s forces at Guadarrama to protect the capital.

Riaza.jpg

The Battle of Riaza

[1] - For plot reasons, it could have easily happened.

[2] - Spanish historiography both IOTL and ITTL will sell the uprising as a national revolution, which was certainly the case for the upper classes, but not so much for the poor peasant that only wanted to protect his land. However, TTL’s version of the war will end up being even more of a unifying factor for Spain than IOTL.

[3] - No way he is giving the colony back to the Spanish.

[4] - Sort of a spoiler there.

[5] - A slightly improved logistical situation permits the British to enter Spain earlier than IOTL.

[6] - IOTL Blake’s flank crumbled and the Spanish were soundly defeated, with the army retreating in a surprisingly good order, but abandoning most of the equipment.

[7] - Spanish military coordination has improved compared to OTL levels. Plus, with Palafox dead, there is no dispute in the chain of command that paralyses the Spanish army and that resulted in the disaster that was Tudela IOTL.

[8] - IOTL the French successfully split the Spanish, sending the right flank to Saragossa and the left one due south. The ATL Battle of Tudela is not the crushing defeat of OTL, but not a victory in any way.

[9] - The sheer brutality of the Second Siege of Saragossa has been butterflied away.

[10] - IOTL the force was led by General Benito San Juan, with Heredia guarding the Guadarrama pass. San Juan did not take any precautions prior to the battle, which resulted in the epic cavalry charge of the Poles that demolished the Spanish artillery.
 
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On the one hand I doubt that Luisana can easily become independent from Spain, her population is very small. I believe that a much larger population will have to be reached in order to achieve successful independence.
Also, the Spanish are doing very well, I doubt very much that the colonies will become independent or the majority will do it as things are going.
 
On the one hand I doubt that Luisana can easily become independent from Spain, her population is very small. I believe that a much larger population will have to be reached in order to achieve successful independence.
Also, the Spanish are doing very well, I doubt very much that the colonies will become independent or the majority will do it as things are going.
Depends really, Spain has experienced soldiers and a better hand ITTL, although there will also need to have some sort of political reforms to go along with the relationship of the colonies and the motherland, maybe something similar like what happened to Brazil and Portugal, especially now that the Criollos have had a taste of self government and even fought off British invasion, Spain's gonna have to share some of their bone if they want to keep them and even then, there's gonna be colonies who simply can't be kept.
 
On the one hand I doubt that Luisana can easily become independent from Spain, her population is very small. I believe that a much larger population will have to be reached in order to achieve successful independence.
Also, the Spanish are doing very well, I doubt very much that the colonies will become independent or the majority will do it as things are going.
The main issue with Spanish America is that they tasted self governance, and that tastes so good you always want more. Spain will do better in America, of course, but 1808 is a tad too late for a fully succesful reform imo. Louisiana is a special case. Unlike the rest of the continent, it borders three sovereign states that broke off from a colonial power, they have a succesful example right across the Mississippi that independe can be indeed achieved. Plus, these states, specially Virginia as it controls the Ohio, need the Mississippi river for trade, and Columbian influence in Louisiana has only increased since the colony was given back to France, with Columbian traders replacing many of the local traders. While it is true that Louisiana lacks a massive population, I doubt that is a pre-requisite for independence.
 
The population factor is important when you try to become independent from someone who has more army than your population. Also frankly Louisiana is a massive territory too unpopulated and is also close to expansionist nations. I fear more for what happens after becoming independent, I know that it will end up becoming independent but it is better that it does it between the year 1820-1830.
Postscript: when the Napoleonic wars are over, will Spain be at the table of the victorious powers? As far as I know, they made peace with the French earlier.
 
I feel bad for going over a week without updates, have been busy IRL or with other projects. However I will not abandon the TL, and as you know as per the previous post, I always have a backup chapter written when I post a new one. Right now I have that one done but nothing of the one coming after, I'll try to get some spare time to do it soon.

TL,DR Was busy, sorry for not posting, will do soon.
 
Chapter 25: Tsars, Kings and Ministers
~ Chapter 25: Tsars, Kings and Ministers ~

As Napoleon was crossing the Central Range towards Madrid in mid December of 1808, the situation in the rest of Europe was changing. The main reason for this shift in policies was Tsar Alexander’s lack of confidence in the Emperor of the French after the Congress of Erfurt, during which the French statesman Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Pèrigord secretly conspired against Napoleon by providing the Tsar with useful information and contacts [1]. Alexander, which was opposed to the war, only fought the British with the bare minimum of naval actions and the end of trade between both parties, a position which the British respected, and Anglo-Russian confrontations would be reduced to a couple of naval skirmishes in the Baltic. Russian actions focused instead on the Ottoman Empire [2] and on Sweden, which was hostile to Napoleon and a traditional enemy of Russia (Russia and Sweden went to war independently as recently as 1788).

The Ottomans presented no major threat to the Russians, but were a distraction, so the Russians gathered a considerable force in Moldavia under Alexander Prozorovsky, a general of noble ascendency, that proved that being of the upper class does not necessarily translate into competence as his force was crushed at the siege of Braila taking enormous casualties. The 76 years old Prozorvsky then requested a younger commander to replace him. In the Caucasus, the locals had risen up against the Russian occupation, with the sovereign of Imereti reasserting the independence of the Kingdom of Imereti [3], and the Persians joining the war despite their less than successful assaults.

Russia declared war on Sweden in late February 1808 as 24,000 Russian men crossed the border and took the town of Lovisa on February 21. The war was a string of successes for the Russians, quickly securing most of Finland during the spring and summer of 1808. The Russian advance was so serious that before being deployed to Spain, Sir John Moore was dispatched to the port of Gothenburg to assist the Swedes, albeit the situation in Spain erupted only eight days after his arrival. By November 1808, the Russians had overrun all of Finland, and as per the terms of the Convention of Olkijoki of November 19 the Swedes abandoned Finland, retreating across the Gulf of Bothnia. This was not enough for Alexander, who hoped to extract a major victory while his tacit alliance with Napoleon still continued.

Prior to launching an offensive against Sweden proper, Alexander opened a backchannel of communication with the British and Swedes, learning that king Gustav IV Adolf was acting in an ever increasingly erratic manner, and that the Swedish Army was starting to get annoyed by the king. Hence, in January 1809, Alexander dispatched War Minister Arakcheyev to Finland, convincing Kamensky to cross the frozen gulf. With the Russian Army already encroaching Stockholm, Swedish lieutenant-colonel Georg Aldersparre raised the flag of rebellion in February of 1809, with other forces arresting the king and proclaiming the decrepit Charles XIII as king under a liberal regime. The new government promptly made peace with the Russians, being forced to give up Finland, albeit British mediation secured the Aland Islands for Sweden, even if they were demilitarised. Without an heir apparent, the Swedes chose prince Christian August as an adopted heir [4]. Alexander then sent a delegation to the Ottomans, which accepted a peace deal with the Russians that saw a Russian retreat from Moldavia but gave them a free hand to deal with Imereti and some other Georgian principalities.

Gustav IV Arrest.jpg

The arrest of Swedish King Gustav IV Adolf

With its hands free, Russia could now focus on France. The Anglo-Russian war was secretly finished by March 1809, and Austrian minister Johann Philipp Stadion approached the Tsar with an interesting proposal, offering Russia to collaborate with the Austrians should they go to war with France. Alexander was doubtful at first, but when he received news that the Prussian prime minister vom Stein was also secretly preparing Prussia for a third round, Alexander decided to side with the Austrians and Prussians, fearing the possible outcome of a French victory. The Austrian Army had been reformed under Archduke Charles, the brother of the Emperor, and in 1808 a Reserve Army had been created that rivalled in size with its French counterpart. Napoleon was aware that something was off with Russia since Erfurt, but the war in Spain kept him occupied until February of 1809, and by that time he was convinced Austria was going to attack, and waited for the Austrians to make the first move.

Napoleon was a busy man, and his attitude towards the war had changed after the Spanish had resisted way more than he expected. Sure, the Second Battle of Madrid [5] was a French victory, but the cost in ammunition and men had been terrific, with over 20,000 Frenchmen dead from Somosierra to Napoleon’s entrance across the Gate of the Sun. A battered and tired Spanish army retreated south towards Alcalá de Henares, with Napoleon ordering a pursuit that resulted in the Battle of Getafe, where the rearguard of Eguía’s Army of Castille was cut off and forced to surrender. Further east, the French campaign in Catalonia was more successful, with Saint-Cyr defeating the Spanish under Juan Vives and Teodoro Reding at Cardedeu and then at Molinos del Rey, relieving the French garrison of Barcelona [6].

Napoleon abandoned Spain right after his parade at the Gate of the Sun, worried by the diplomatic developments in Europe, which had complicated further in his absence. The last major campaign of 1808 in Spain was Soult’s Leonese Campaign, departing from Valladolid in December of 1808 and pushing towards the mountains of Leon with the hope of capturing Corunna and dividing the front. The forces of La Romana had enough time to rest after Espinosa de los Monteros and joined with the Moore’s Franco-British army at Astorga, where they waited for Soult to arrive. Imperial and British forces had already clashed multiple times across Old Castille, notably at Sahagún and Benavente, but the decisive campaign would be fought on January 2 1809 outside the town of Astorga. Soult had a force of almost 70,000 men, while Moore had 25,000 men, La Romana had 17,000 and Blake had 15,000, which were reinforced by Pichegru’s Royalist Army, which had now increased to 4,000 men with volunteers captured after Bailén. The numbers were pretty even, but eventually Soult’s men were defeated when the British cavalry outflanked the Imperial Army and the left flank collapsed, resulting in a rout and a French defeat, with a complete disaster being averted by the brave sacrifice of colonel Jean Baptiste Bory de Saint-Vincent’s contingent, that stopped the British long enough for the core of the army to escape [7]. Napoleon blamed Soult on a defeat that he should have won, more so because he expected to be the man leading the Astorga campaign but tensions with Austria prevented him from doing so.

British Hussars Astorga.jpg

Charge of the British hussars at Astorga

[1] - By this time Talleyrand considers that Napoleon is going to drive France to doom and actively works against Bonaparte. As a side note, both Talleyrand and Alexander were men that could not see their dignity down and were accustomed to flattery, so the actual meeting between the two was very weird.

[2] - Russia and the Ottomans have been at war since 1806. No, the Ottomans were no French ally, just a co-belligerent, and there was no cooperation between them. Russia was not actively engaged in the conflict, only ramping up hostilities after Tilsit.

[3] - Technically vassalage to the Turks, but whatever works for Solomon II.

[4] - Renamed to Charles August after becoming Crown Prince. Unlike IOTL, he avoids his 1810 death. The circumstances of his death are controversial, apparently suffering a stroke and falling off his horse, albeit many considered that the Gustavian faction had poisoned him, which led to Count Axel von Fersen being lynched during Charles’ funeral.

[5] - TTL’s historiography considers the Second of May uprising as the First Battle of Madrid, and Napoleon’s assault of the city in mid December as the Second Battle of Madrid.

[6] - Pretty much the OTL Campaign. By the way, note that the last battle takes place at “Molinos del Rey” and not “Molins de Rei”.

[7] - Bory being killed at Astorga means his book “Guide du Voyageur en Espagne” is never published, thus never popularising the term “Iberia” to refer to the peninsula south of France. You may deduce where this is going...
 
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The next chapter took a long time to do, which along university stuff means the rate of chapters will continue at this minimum. Also, I am well aware that this TL is focusing almost entirely in Europe for the moment, despite the main divergences being in India and America. Do not worry, I will write more chapters about those later, but I want to finish the Napoleonic wars first, which will take at the very least three more chapters.
 
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