The Pale Horse: The Northwest Montana Insurgency and its Aftermath (1987-2002)

We’ve still got a long way to go, but that’s broadly how I’ve planned things panning out in the end. After all, the government of the CSA’s successor state certainly won’t be the first government to realise the advantages of having some semi-tame terrorists to hand (car bombings happening a few weeks before anti-terrorist legislation which just happens to curtail the activities of political opposition groups comes up for renewal, the occasional oligarch who’s getting slightly too big for his boots getting assassinated etc).

I think this is an important point. The Balkans, Northern Ireland and various places in the Middle East demonstrate that you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Once you've had a serious insurgency you are going to have to live with the consequences for generations. In many ways Northern Ireland is the best case scenario, in the sense that you have domestic peace*, a semi-democracy** and reasonable prosperity. But NI is a small adjunct to a large, stable and rich country. I suspect the CSA's successor states won't be as stable or capable as the UK, so I suspect Western Montana circa 2021 is going to look a lot like Lebanon in 2021, with all that implies.

*NI now just has the best armed and most violent organised criminal gangs in the UK. Because while some people on both sides were in it for the cause it turns out a lot of the paramilitaries were in it for the perks.
**I don't think you can call a place real democracy when whatever the results of the election you have a legally mandated Grand Coalition forming the government. Elections in NI just determine how many Ministries a party gets. Which is better than car bombs but isn't great.
 
The Assassination of John Brennan Considered as a Downhill Motor Race (1994)
The Assassination of John Brennan Considered as a Downhill Motor Race (1994)

At what point does a man cease to be a man and become an image? For John Brennan, it is arguable that the process was well underway quite some time before the cold, bright March morning where he was forced, blinking in the unaccustomed light, from the back of a SATPO truck into the waiting arms of a NWF unit. His political capital entirely burned through by the Plains Massacre, and abandoned by both the Bureaus of Internal and External Security, he had been held as a virtual prisoner in the Mechanised Brigade’s forward headquarters in Missoula. In his absence, two processes were set in motion: the progressive disintegration of the intelligence gathering apparatus he had so lovingly curated over the last three years, and the gradual spread of a narrative among Northwest Montana’s civilian population which identified him completely with the worst excesses of SATPO.

This narrative was assisted immensely by a neat piece of British black propaganda: by early 1993, a memo (purportedly written by Brennan for internal discussion within SATPO) was being circulated by NWF insurgents as evidence for long-term plans for counter-insurgency activities in the region. Brennan’s actual proposals up to this point, if harsh, had at least been guided by an internal logic and had been moderately effective – the actions outlined in the memo (which included the widespread taking of civilian hostages for future execution in response to NWF activities, the use of some of the CSA’s significant stocks of nerve gas to pacify large areas, and starving out civilians by spraying crops with defoliants) are more indicative of a psychopath than an anti-insurgency specialist. Brennan, even if aware of this image, was powerless to prevent its spread. Even today, Brennan is still stubbornly if inaccurately associated with a quote contained within this memo: “it is impossible to defeat insurgents by showing them that their fears are unfounded. They must instead be shown that they are powerless to resist these fears.”

This narrative, which doomed Brennan, may well have saved Oliver North’s life. In the absence of any real succession planning within SATPO, the immediate aftermath of Kanne’s death saw the complete breakdown of its upper echelons. While McChrystal was nominally in charge of SATPO by dint of his seniority, for the last chaotic fortnight of fighting, both he and North were too busy desperately trying to shore up some sort of plausibly defensible line using the troops under their immediate command to lend each other assistance. Recognising that the situation had become irretrievable in the second week of March, McChrystal made contact with the NWF’s Provisional Council about what terms they would be willing to offer regarding the full evacuation of the SATPO brigades under his direct control from Northwest Montana. Within eighteen hours, a flightplan which would allow simultaneous evacuation from the two AFBs still in use along a predetermined route had been agreed: at noon on 14 March 1994, the last of the SATPO helicopters still in a usable condition took off from Perry AFB, in full view of an NWF unit which had been engaged in a low-intensity running battle with its defenders until six hours before. Although, in the process of its evacuation, SATPO had been forced to abandon the vast majority of its heavy equipment (including a dozen truck-mounted anti-air systems, no-one from the airborne brigades had been left behind: North’s troops would have to fend for themselves.

To the remnants of the SATPO mechanised brigade, the ceasefire agreement came as a direct betrayal. North, his effective control over Northwest Montana shrunk to the centre of Missoula, realised that he would have to buy himself and his men their way out as soon as possible. Luckily, he was still in a possession of an asset in which the NWF were very interested indeed. By the evening of 14 March, he had made contact with the overall commander of the joint NWF-Reconstituted Nauvoo Legion forces surrounding Missoula: his terms, if surprising, were accepted after brief discussion. It was thus that John Brennan, the next morning, became briefly (if unwillingly) more useful to SATPO than he had been at any point since the Plains Massacre.

It is at the moment of the handover that John Brennan the man ceases to exist. Regardless of precisely what happened in the interval between the exchange and the period that afternoon where an anonymous NWF insurgent with a smuggled Pacifican videocamera records something that had once been a human being dragged behind a Toyota Hilux filled with cheering fighters, it is John Brennan the image which has enjoyed an odd afterlife over the subsequent quarter of a century. On occasions, this image briefly emerges from its resting-place in the collective subconscious: judging by past behaviour, it will continue to do so until the Northwest Montana Insurgencies are viewed as purely historical events rather than ones with ongoing ramifications. It is unlikely that this state of affairs will be brought about any time soon.

1999: The family of John Brennan sue rotten.com, a shock image website whose servers are held in St Vincent, to force their removal of a video of Brennan’s torture: although the case is ultimately settled in 2002 by the website agreeing to voluntarily remove the video, the prior legal dispute is instrumental in determining cross-jurisdictionality for internet services and the extent to which common carrier provisions apply to image and video hosts.

2006: The French sociologist Jean Baudrillard publishes the controversial essay “l'assassinat de John Brennan n'a pas eu lieu”, in the course of which he argues that in a fundamental sense, the “assassination” of “John Brennan” never occurred: an assassination requires the obliteration of an individual capable of free action (which Brennan hadn’t really been for at least two years) in order to damage a system dependent on said individual (which didn’t really exist at that point either). Instead, he proposes that Brennan’s death was an act of iconoclasm by the new power structure within Northwest Montana.

2009: As part of Flathead Lake, his series of documentaries covering the manipulation of images and narratives by state and non-state actors during the Northwest Montana Insurgencies, British documentarian Adam Curtis releases The Flayed Man. This documentary is concerned with a detailed analysis of the three images most indelibly associated with the final collapse of SATPO in March 1994: a photograph of a Rushdoonyite community stoning to death a man ostensibly guilty of adultery (further investigation after the photojournalist had won an international competition revealed that in actuality the man was executed for the rape and murder of a ten year old girl); a flayed corpse draped over the front of an insurgent IFV (popular perceptions of the NWF’s fondness for flaying notwithstanding, Curtis is unable to identify any other first-hand accounts of flayings – much as with Qing China and the “death of a thousand cuts”, the practice appears to have been otherwise extremely rare if not entirely nonexistent); and the video of John Brennan’s body being dragged through the streets of Missoula.

2014: Montreal-based alternative magazine Vice publishes an article titled “In Search of Brennan’s Dick”, wherein a journalist on a visit to Missoula meets an elderly man who claims to have the organ in question (removed from a conscious Brennan prior to death) pickled in a jar in his basement. Although understandably unable to determine whether the contents of the jar belonged to Brennan at any point, the journalist spends an immensely enjoyable few days drinking with former militiamen before Vice’s expense account cuts him off.

2018: An episode of Dark Tourist features journalist David Farrier visiting Northwest Montana, in the course of which he is briefly detained after trying to enter the abandoned city of Helena, takes part in a themed tour of Missoula purportedly conducted in the same Toyota used to drag Brennan and visits a commune operated semi-legally by the remnants of Michael Aquino’s Church of the Black Flame.
 
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Another great update and a fitting death for an unpleasant man.

2018: An episode of Dark Tourist features journalist David Farrier visiting Northwest Montana, in the course of which he is briefly detained after trying to enter the abandoned city of Helena, takes part in a themed tour of Missoula purportedly conducted in the same Toyota used to drag Brennan and visits a commune operated semi-legally by the remnants of Michael Aquino’s Church of the Black Flame.

I don't think I'd want to live in Northwest Montana in 2018.
 
Brennan, even if aware of this image, was powerless to prevent its spread.
Whenever I see Brennan's name, I keep remembering a guy who came into my state rep's office when I interned there a few years back. He claimed, just offhandedly, that Brennan was both a communist and a Muslim. That's always stuck with me, partly for the absurdity, and also because there's a grain of truth in it that a right-wing conspiracy theorist could run with.

with a smuggled Pacifican videocamera
Now I really want to know about the Pacifican and CSA's military-industrial and electronics sectors.

(further investigation after the photojournalist had won an international competition revealed that in actuality the man was executed for the rape and murder of a ten year old girl)
Nguyễn Ngọc Loan, I presume?

in the course of which he is briefly detained after trying to enter the abandoned city of Helena, takes part in a themed tour of Missoula purportedly conducted in the same Toyota used to drag Brennan and visits a commune operated semi-legally by the remnants of Michael Aquino’s Church of the Black Flame.
...oh dear.
 
You know when you conduct an alternate history of media analysis of spectacular war crimes to, in effect, chide your readership for how their minds run straight into the rural drainage ditch; but, the only effect is to make them even hungrier for your writing due to its power, incisiveness and insight; then, you are at the peak of the craft.

Wow. This is so good and keeps giving with greater depth.
 
Really-well, "enjoyed" is probably not the right word, but that was a really good update! I like the way you kind of hinted at what happened to Brennan without actually making us read all the details, and it feels plausible within the context of the story.

Right now, it appears that the NWF-RNL have basically created their own little microstate-one probably large enough to survive indefinately (a la Somaliland or Transnistria) had it been permitted to. What's interesting to me now is that, from what we know of TTL's "present day", it wasn't-Northwest Montana made itself a sufficient inconvenience to somebody that it was eventually reconquered, and it appears to have stayed reconquered (if quite devastated-hard to imagine a former state capital being just sealed off and abandoned).

I'm kind of curious as to what's going to happen next, and what exactly Michael Aquino is-a Satanist like OTL? Some kind of weird Mormon offshoot?
 
an assassination requires the obliteration of an individual capable of free action (which Brennan hadn’t really been for at least two years) in order to damage a system dependent on said individual (which didn’t really exist at that point either)
This is quite interesting, because it implies that media outside the Syndicalist world (and, thus, likely the NWF) has a pretty clear picture of the internal machinations and dynamics of SATPO.
 
This is quite interesting, because it implies that media outside the Syndicalist world (and, thus, likely the NWF) has a pretty clear picture of the internal machinations and dynamics of SATPO.

This problem actually occurred to me as well. Perhaps retcon the French guy's essay to 1997-1998 or so?

Still don't want to nitpick too much on what was a great update to a great (if chilling) TL.
 
This is quite interesting, because it implies that media outside the Syndicalist world (and, thus, likely the NWF) has a pretty clear picture of the internal machinations and dynamics of SATPO.

This problem actually occurred to me as well. Perhaps retcon the French guy's essay to 1997-1998 or so?

Fair points. I've shifted it back by a decade to the period just after Kanne's widow publishes her husband's diaries, so that he actually has a chance of working out what's going on.
 
Whenever I see Brennan's name, I keep remembering a guy who came into my state rep's office when I interned there a few years back. He claimed, just offhandedly, that Brennan was both a communist and a Muslim. That's always stuck with me, partly for the absurdity, and also because there's a grain of truth in it that a right-wing conspiracy theorist could run with.
Regarding the communist bit, Brennan did say once that he'd voted for Gus Hall in 1976 or 1980 when he was in college (although this was in the context of encouraging people who thought they might fail the vetting process to apply for the CIA, so take with a pinch of salt). I've definitely come across the Muslim rumours as well, but they seem to be entirely unsupported by any evidence whatsoever. The Muslim link's always struck me as at least slightly plausible - there's a certain austerity to certain schools of Islam which would appeal very much to Brennan. It goes without saying, of course, that him being a Muslim or (briefly) a Communist isn't in the top fifty reasons why he should have never been let near the top of the CIA.

Nguyễn Ngọc Loan, I presume?

That parallel actually hadn't occurred to me when I was writing the section, oddly enough. I was actually basing the stoning off an incident from my teenage years - my school had a very active branch of Amnesty International which roped pretty much everyone into a letter-writing campaign protesting the execution of two young Iranians supposedly for being homosexuals. I did a bit of digging into the story in my own time and it turned out that they were actually being executed for the rape and subsequent murder of a ten-year-old boy. The whole thing went a long way to convincing me that literally everyone's working at least some sort of angle - not an enormously sophisticated worldview, I admit, but it has stood me in good stead through the years.
I'm kind of curious as to what's going to happen next, and what exactly Michael Aquino is-a Satanist like OTL? Some kind of weird Mormon offshoot?

Aquino's a surprisingly difficult man to pin down regarding plausible beliefs in TTL. The biggest issue with bringing over his current beliefs into here is that most of the material on the Temple of Set I've managed to find seems written in reaction to Anton LaVey (who in turn plagiarised vast swathes of his writings, oddly enough, from Ayn Rand). Given that ITTL, Alisa Rosenbaum presumably stays in St Petersburg and Harold Stanton Levey remains a very competent carny barker and organist in the CSA, it's difficult to work out an equivalent pedigree for Aquino. Pretty much the only esotericist who would definitely have been in the PSA at the start of the Second Civil War is L Ron Hubbard (who also, interestingly enough, grew up in Northwest Montana), so I may well run with that connection...
 
Jeder Für Sich und Gott Gegen Alle (1994-1998)
siege-of-sarajevo-burning-towers.jpg


"And Babylon, the glory of kingdoms, the beauty of the Chaldees' excellency, shall be as when God overthrew Sodom and Gomorrah. It shall never be inhabited, neither shall it be dwelt in from generation to generation: neither shall the Arabian pitch tent there; neither shall the shepherds make their fold there. But wild beasts of the desert shall lie there; and their houses shall be full of doleful creatures; and owls shall dwell there, and satyrs shall dance there." - Isaiah 13:19-21
 
Regarding the communist bit, Brennan did say once that he'd voted for Gus Hall in 1976 or 1980 when he was in college (although this was in the context of encouraging people who thought they might fail the vetting process to apply for the CIA, so take with a pinch of salt). I've definitely come across the Muslim rumours as well, but they seem to be entirely unsupported by any evidence whatsoever. The Muslim link's always struck me as at least slightly plausible - there's a certain austerity to certain schools of Islam which would appeal very much to Brennan. It goes without saying, of course, that him being a Muslim or (briefly) a Communist isn't in the top fifty reasons why he should have never been let near the top of the CIA.

I mostly figured that it had to do with his fluent Arabic.

Harold Stanton Levey remains a very competent carny barker and organist in the CSA

Red Funfair: Traveling Amusements and the Carnival Aesthetic Under Syndicalism (2011, White Rose University Press) is a fictional book I now need to read.
 
I mostly figured that it had to do with his fluent Arabic.

Sounds reasonable. He was the CIA Middle East station chief for about a decade, IIRC.

Red Funfair: Traveling Amusements and the Carnival Aesthetic Under Syndicalism (2011, White Rose University Press) is a fictional book I now need to read.

Amazing. The tie-in documentary would just be this, but with LaVey playing The Red Flag on the Wurlitzer instead:

 
Everyone for themselves and God against all? That bodes very well for Northwest Montana/the soon to be former CSA.
I think it’s German for “Everybody fight each other.”

To cite the example that first comes to mind, many theologically literate conservative Protestants find many Mormon doctrines about God so utterly wrong as to verge on blasphemy (see Walter “Bible Answer Man” Martin’s rant about Mormonism for an example of what I’m talking about). And here, of course, we’re not talking about mainstream LDS and mainstream southern baptists like Martin-on the one hand, we have the Mormon fundamentalists, who probably believe in the Adam-God doctrine and other…interesting ideas, and on the other hand we have what’s basically the Calvinist Taliban. Even if the leadership on both sides wants to maintain peace (and with the CSA gone, they may not), good luck keeping all the foot soldiers in line.


Honestly at this point, I think the most likely outcome is that the three sides (neither the Mormons nor the Calvinists will like the Klassenites-though they’ll probably find the New Age theology more offensive than the white supremacy) spend the next several years battling it out until they’ve basically destroyed themselves and Northwest Montana along with them, and then the CSA’s successor state imposes some kind of peace through exhaustion-possibly by getting the moderate elements of the Northwest Front-ie, the people who just wanted the government to leave them alone-to turn on and destroy the remaining crazies.
 
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