An Age of Miracles Continues: The Empire of Rhomania

The Gathering of the Rus, Part 1
The Gathering of the Rus, part 1:

As the saying goes, everything is bigger in Russia. Even as early as the mid-1600s, there are complaints from men in Roman port towns frequented by Russian sailors that the womenfolk prefer the company of the supposedly better-endowed Russian men. The accuracy of the complaint is unknown, although Russians have never shown any inclination to argue against it.

Studies of skeletal remains from the period however do show a substantial height differential. They show that in the mid-1600s, the height of the average Russian woman was the same as the height of the average Roman man. The scenario effectively repeats a scene from the classical age, where the Germanic peoples of the north literally towered over the shorter Italians. Based on personal accounts from the period, there were a decent number of Roman men who were into Russian women for this reason, a trend that exists to this day.

The lands of Russia, although divided in the 1630s, are already vast in size and also in population. Aside from the brief fighting that marked the Sundering of the Rus, and some incursions from the steppe, the lands of Russia have been at peace since the end of the Great Northern War in the early 1570s. That bloody and sweeping conflict had been devastating for the Russian people, like the Time of Troubles for the Romans, but like the Roman experience, the Russian experience afterwards had been of a remarkable resurgence. But this one had been even stronger, and unlike the Flowering, which had been poleaxed by the Great Uprising and the Eternal War, the Russian boom has continued.

The result was the greatest known sustained population growth rate in early modern history up to that point, only superseded in the 1640s by the Triune colonies in North Terranova. Between 1550 and 1630 the Roman population in the heartland increased by about 50%. In that same time frame, Russia’s population nearly doubled, and the discrepancy is even higher when one factors in that some of Rhomania’s growth was driven by Russian emigration.

In 1640, Russia’s population is at least 28 million, and possibly higher. Khazaria’s population is almost certainly underreported, not factoring in all the nomadic tribes, Cossacks, and Siberian natives paying iasak (tribute in furs). Great Pronsk alone has 16 million, just a few hundred thousand short of the Roman heartland itself. Of the remaining 12 million, 6 are in Lithuania, with Novgorod, Scythia, and Khazaria splitting the remainder roughly evenly.

This is moreover not a poor population, at least by the standards of the 1600s. The bulk of the population is poor, often landless, existing on the edge of subsistence, but that applies to all societies of the time, including Rhomania. Alongside them though is a large and prosperous subset of the population.

Russia only has one city that is in the top rank of cities in Christendom, Novgorod at 100,000 souls in 1645. But by that time it is richly endowed with many small cities and larger towns, chief of which are Vladimir, Smolensk, Bryansk, Tver, Ryazan, Nizhniy Novgorod, Pskov, Kharkov, Kherson-on-the-Don, Chernigov, Yaroslavl, Pronsk, Kiev, Kazan, Tula, Vilnius, and Voronezh, (the last replaces Draconovsk, which after being damaged by Kalmyk raids and then fires has declined to a shadow of its former self) all of which have at least 25,000 inhabitants. There are many more that are smaller, with one observer saying the Russian towns number as many as the Italian, albeit spread out over a much larger area.

Flourishing and intricate trade networks are the reason for the sprawling urban network. Trade with Rhomania had been the initial spark but it has grown substantially since. The towns are loci for trade internal to Russia, as well as facilitating the flow of exports and imports. From Scythia comes grain and vegetables. From Siberia comes fur and metals. From Novgorod comes timber, hemp, tar, and potash. From Lithuania comes leather, butter, and cheese.

Trade with Rhomania is still by far the most important foreign trade, and it is the same with Rhomania and Russia. Roman imports are a mix of primary and secondary goods, with wine and textiles the main items. The Russians export mainly raw materials, foodstuffs, furs, hides, and metal bars. However it would be a mistake to present this trade as colonial. The Russians are not exporting raw materials and then importing finished goods made out of said materials, like the Egyptians when they export raw cotton and import cotton textiles from Thrakesia or Syria.

The finished goods the Russians import, primarily textiles, are made from raw materials that were not sourced in Russia. Russia does provide many raw materials for Roman industry, principally metals. Due to the limits of transport, the metal is mined and refined on site in Russia and processed into bars, which is how it is shipped, to be reworked into whatever tool once it reaches its Roman destination. However the metal goods produced overwhelmingly stay in the Roman market. For their metal goods, the Russians ship other bars of metal to a Russian town where artisans work it to make whatever good is desired.

As the metal-working example shows, Russian towns are centers of manufacturing as well as trade. Transportation is difficult, even by the standards of the early modern period, and mostly conducted by river. Bulk shipment over the execrable roads, except when the winters freeze them, is not advised. Nevertheless the volume of goods and merchants, travelers and ideas, moving across the landscape of Russia is surprising in number and variety.

The lands of Russia are also expanding rapidly to the east. Although Khazar authority in Central Asia crashed after the death of Theodoros I in 1634, expansion in Siberia has continued unabated. It is done mainly by Cossacks and fur traders and trappers, and at this stage Russian presence is broad but thin in much of Siberia. Most of the Siberian natives have been coerced into paying iasak, a yearly tribute in furs, but are otherwise largely left alone. In 1652 Russian traders and trappers will reach the Pacific Ocean, establishing the outpost at Okhotsk.

Much of the iasak ends up flowing south, not west. While the trade will expand greatly over the later 1600s, already by 1640 there is a thriving caravan trade with China. In some respects it mirrors Russian trade with Rhomania. The Chinese want Siberian forest products and metals, and especially the fine furs. The Little Ice Age, disastrous for many people, is a boon to Russian fur traders. In exchange the Russians get Chinese manufactures, mostly silks and porcelains. As early as 1640, there are contracts for the transport of Chinese porcelain that specify that payment will be denied if more than a certain percentage of the items are broken. Impressively, this clause does not seem to have been invoked very often. Tea leaves are used as packing material and are soon valued as a trade good in their own right.

The Kazan trade fair, timed for when the Chinese goods are expected to arrive, sees Russians converging from all over the principalities, to trade, to party, to talk and debate. It is sometimes said, with good reason, that Russia was reunited first at the Kazan trade fairs.

Another place where Russia is united is in the kaffos houses to be found in every settlement that has any pretensions to culture. Even some monasteries have their own kaffos house, exclusive for the monks and workers at the monastery. Romans consume roughly 60% of the kaffos they import, with Russians consuming most of the remainder. The kaffos houses are popular places, with hot drinks and hot food and good conversation.

Much of the conversation is learned. Russian literacy rates vary wildly, but the city of Novgorod in 1640 has arguably the highest literacy rate in the world at the time, with 90%+ adult male literacy. This continues a long trend, reaching back well into the Middle Ages, of high literacy in the city, although by this stage paper has completely shoved out the birch bark as a reading and writing material. Nowhere else in Russia can compete with Novgorod, but literacy in the towns and in the countryside near the towns is high by contemporary standards. While the average literacy rate in Russia is lower than in Rhomania, the sheer size of the Russian population means that the Russian literary public is bigger than the Roman, and that public has a healthy demand for reading material. Smolensk especially, seconded by Kiev, have major printing industries. (Oddly, Novgorod does not, getting most of its books from Smolensk.)

Some of the literature is in Greek, as a knowledge of that language is considered necessary for a Russian who wants to be cultured, and essential for the merchant class. A cheap paperback edition containing a compilation of ancient Greek myths published in Constantinople in 1629 is a particularly hot item for the Russian presses at this time. But there is a limit to this; both Russians and Georgians, while respecting and appreciating Roman culture, can find Roman assertions of cultural superiority to be rather patronizing and trying. The Russian attitude can be summed in the saying “respect Greek, but do not become one, for you are Russian”.

Works published in Russian, ranging from religious texts to histories to comedies, make up the bulk of Russian printing. Russians have much to be proud of in this regard; the plays of Dmitrii Romanov, author of the Epic of David I, Conqueror of Mexico, are admired throughout Russia with Greek translations being quite popular in Rhomania. It is not just in writing; the creations of Russian icon painters are also quite popular in the Empire to the south.

Russians in the kaffos houses, a mix of locals and travelers getting hot food and drink, not only read the literature available (which often includes newspapers) but also talk. Oftentimes the conversation is about politics. Most agree that the breakup of the Rus is wrong on a fundamental level; it must be made right. The Sundering of the Rus revealed a truth that they hadn’t realized until it was too late, that they were all Russians. And it is not right that such a numerous and mighty people should be divided; it only exposes them to insolence. The outrage of the English at the idea of having to treat Russians as equal in the matter of reciprocal trading rights had been directed at Novgorod, but Russians in all the Principalities had all felt the humiliation.

But that still leaves the question of how Russia is to be reunited, and what the Russia of the future is to be. These are far more complicated issues. But there are a few things on which Russians in general can agree.

The power of the towns had been a strong counter to the power of the great landowners. But the rise of the towns had also helped the peasantry. To feed the towns required a lot of grain, which encouraged the creation of large estates with the advantage of economies of scale. But around the towns also sprung up small landholdings, which provided the towns with vegetables, herbs, flowers, and animal products. Selling these items to the town can be profitable even with relatively small amounts of product, and so a class of small peasant landowners filling this niche has arisen.

Individually they can’t compare to the great rural landowners or the big urban magnates and long-distance wholesale merchants, but as a class they are a power that cannot be ignored. Combined with the towns, they are a formidable counter to the might of big rural landowners who otherwise might wish to dominate society, like in Vlachia or as is steadily more and more the case in Poland, where the demand of western European cities for Polish rye is encouraging the growth of large estates worked by serfs under ever worse condition. The towns and small landowners do not care for that prospect one bit.

There are still many great estates, producing grain in bulk to feed the towns, and the big landowners are elites in Russian society. But their workforce can emigrate to the towns, or south to Scythia or Rhomania (less so now than was the case 50 years ago), or east to Khazaria & Siberia. One way to keep their workforce is by repression, the Vlach and Polish route. But the power of the towns and small landowners makes that not an option. As a result, the big landowners need to rely on the carrot, not the stick.

The small landowners that are near the towns are a minority of the peasant population, with many more poorer peasants with smaller plots, or ones less well suited to take advantage of urban markets. There are also landless laborers and tenant farmers and sharecroppers, these cases providing the work force for the great estates. But despite their lower economic status, the influence from the towns, the increased trade and literacy, means that they know their rights, and they will not yield them. They are not Poles or Vlachs, to be yoked like cattle and treated as slaves. They are Russians, and one does not do that to Russians unless one wishes to die.

As Stenka Razin and Yemelyan Pugachev, delegates to the Zemsky Sobor, would say to rapturous applause, “to be Russian is to be free”.
 
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Wow. A very different Russia than OTL. I don't know enough about the medieval demographics, but that seems like a huge population for the region for the time. I also wouldn't have assumed so much of it would be concentrated in Pronsk. I'm a bit confused on the breakdown of the rest.
Of the remaining 12 million, 6 are in Lithuania and Novgorod, Scythia, and Khazaria splitting the remainder roughly evenly.
Is this saying there are 6 million each in Lithuania and Novgorod, because that would leave none for Scythia and Khazaria? If it's 6 million split between those two with the remaining 6 million split evenly between Scythia and Khazaria, it seems like it would be easier to say it was split evenly between the 4.

The rise of a substantial literate class, no doubt overlapping with the growing middle class peasants and merchant/craftsmen class, is a huge change that stands to shift the cultural focus of Europe far to the east. I know there's a strong division between Latins and Orthodox, but a power like Russia is becoming can't be ignored and they seem to primed to be producing not just armies, but art, science, and philosophy that will shape the world at large, whether the west wants to respect them as a culture or not.

On the topic of the Little Ice Age, the fur traders might lover it, but I have to assume it's going to wreak havoc on agriculture unless their need to grow hardy crops in that environment already is going to shield them from the worse of it. At a minimum Scythia seems like they'd be faced with a dire choice: make a handsome profit selling to Rhomania or feed their own population. Historically we know which way large landowners tend to go in these situations. I wonder if a famine coupled with the upper class getting rich off exports might drive any kind of large scale peasant unrest.

As always great writing. I really appreciate how you build out such a complete world and don't just throw a butterfly net around your main character.
 
The rise of a substantial literate class, no doubt overlapping with the growing middle class peasants and merchant/craftsmen class, is a huge change that stands to shift the cultural focus of Europe far to the east. I know there's a strong division between Latins and Orthodox, but a power like Russia is becoming can't be ignored and they seem to primed to be producing not just armies, but art, science, and philosophy that will shape the world at large, whether the west wants to respect them as a culture or not.
Great observation. I imagine Russia will still be Othered by the usual Western European suspects however. Not that what they say matters much :)
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
Is this saying there are 6 million each in Lithuania and Novgorod, because that would leave none for Scythia and Khazaria? If it's 6 million split between those two with the remaining 6 million split evenly between Scythia and Khazaria, it seems like it would be easier to say it was split evenly between the 4.
6 million in Lithuania and 6 million split between the other three, which makes the city of Novgorod's 100K really impressive.
 
6 million in Lithuania and 6 million split between the other three, which makes the city of Novgorod's 100K really impressive.
Yep, need to mind my commas better. That makes sense and honestly makes it seem a bit crazy to think how urbanized Novgorod is. Fully 5% of it's population lives in one city.
 
Very interesting to see Russia start to unify, though it's definitely a tease to see how the Russians gather as one after the Sundering.

I didn't comment much on the relationship between Rhomania and Russia, but I can see them be very similar to the UK and US as others stated, with a shared lineage and culture but could clash with other when their interests differ, especially in the Black Sea or the Caucasus. Still, I can see them resolve these situations peacefully through negotiation since war would be far more destructive towards Russia and Rhomania than what happened in a conflict like the War of 1812. The Orthodox East might very well end up being very peaceful and stable for much of the future, assuming relations remain cordial.

The rise of a substantial literate class, no doubt overlapping with the growing middle class peasants and merchant/craftsmen class, is a huge change that stands to shift the cultural focus of Europe far to the east. I know there's a strong division between Latins and Orthodox, but a power like Russia is becoming can't be ignored and they seem to primed to be producing not just armies, but art, science, and philosophy that will shape the world at large, whether the west wants to respect them as a culture or not.
I doubt we'll see the Latins try to emulate them, especially the Spanish, Polish, or the Triunes, but I'd like to see the Germans be culturally influenced by the Russians at some point in a cruel twist of irony, which could happen if the Wittelsbachs establish a working partnership or an alliance with the Tsardom/Empire of Russia, but we'll see.

In 1640, Russia’s population is at least 28 million, and possibly higher. Khazaria’s population is almost certainly underreported, not factoring in all the nomadic tribes, Cossacks, and Siberian natives paying iasak (tribute in furs). Great Pronsk alone has 16 million, just a few hundred thousand short of the Roman heartland itself. Of the remaining 12 million, 6 are in Lithuania and Novgorod, Scythia, and Khazaria splitting the remainder roughly evenly.
That's an insane population for Russia by the 17th century, and that's after the Mongol Invasion! It's quite a miracle how the Russians managed to increase their population so rapidly even after the Sundering, but I'll be interested to see how they did that for the timeline.
 
“respect Greek, but do not become one, for you are Russian”.
No 3rd Rome definitely contributed to a different path of the formation of a collective Russian identity.

There are still many great estates, producing grain in bulk to feed the towns, and the big landowners are elites in Russian society. But their workforce can emigrate to the towns, or south to Scythia or Rhomania (less so now than was the case 50 years ago), or east to Khazaria & Siberia. One way to keep their workforce is by repression, the Vlach and Polish route. But the power of the towns and small landowners makes that not an option. As a result, the big landowners need to rely on the carrot, not the stick.
Wow, nerfing serfdom before it was codified and baked into the Russian persona = less conservative social attitudes and less inequality later on than if they were emancipated later. That coupled together with higher prosperity and literacy means the Bear just got a whole lot scarier. I wonder how the Russian economy will be like in the future with more impetus for competition, entrepreneurship and demand for laissez-faire style minimum regulations and tariffs.

I doubt we'll see the Latins try to emulate them, especially the Spanish, Polish, or the Triunes, but I'd like to see the Germans be culturally influenced by the Russians at some point in a cruel twist of irony, which could happen if the Wittelsbachs establish a working partnership or an alliance with the Tsardom/Empire of Russia, but we'll see.
Russians nobles on Western European thrones when?
 
Russians nobles on Western European thrones when?
What an crazy twist! Imagine if a descendant of a Russian managed to take control of the HRE (compared to German nobility taking up the Tsardom or the Empire for themselves like Catherine the Great). I can see that happening if Elisabeth's son married a Russian princess, but that's unlikely.
 
What an crazy twist! Imagine if a descendant of a Russian managed to take control of the HRE (compared to German nobility taking up the Tsardom or the Empire for themselves like Catherine the Great). I can see that happening if Elisabeth's son married a Russian princess, but that's unlikely.
There is a morbidly amused part of me that loves the idea of the Wittelsbach claim going down a Russian line and a Super Jagellion of a Russian-Backed Roman Emperor claimant managing to also become Russian Emperor and German Emperor - or at the very least the same dynasty creating that massive power bloc.
 
“to be Russian is to be free”.
That is seriously exciting and very heartwarming. An 'arsenal of democracy' Russia timeline will always be based.

You know if this TL ever reached the 1800s sometime this or next year, Victoria 3 is coming up, and I think this can be one of the best mods out there.
 
That is seriously exciting and very heartwarming. An 'arsenal of democracy' Russia timeline will always be based.
Assuming none of the other TM ideological offshoots takes one of them larger-caliber [naughty reptile], uh, "beaver-hunting pieces" and sticks it (non-consensually, of course, what other cards did the colonists purposefully draw?) in the Triune Puritans, and the OG Massholes end up in charge of the future alt-US, then shit could get morbidly hilarious real quick. As in, "the entire country behaves like OTL Mentor, Ohio and therefore would not be missed during the apocalypse" kind of morbidly hilarious.
 
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Is this saying there are 6 million each in Lithuania and Novgorod, because that would leave none for Scythia and Khazaria? If it's 6 million split between those two with the remaining 6 million split evenly between Scythia and Khazaria, it seems like it would be easier to say it was split evenly between the 4.

[SNIP]

As always great writing. I really appreciate how you build out such a complete world and don't just throw a butterfly net around your main character.

I worded that poorly. Lithuania has 6, with the other three evenly dividing the other 6, so two million each.

Rhomania is the main character, but it is fun to play around with other areas.

That said, sometimes it is amusing for me to imagine how TTL would interact with OTL. Picture Andreas Niketas having to deal with the likes of Cesare Borgia and Caterina Sforza.

Yep, need to mind my commas better. That makes sense and honestly makes it seem a bit crazy to think how urbanized Novgorod is. Fully 5% of it's population lives in one city.

It is quite impressive, although early modern England had something like 10% of its population living in London.



Russia: Something like this has been brewing for quite a long time, ever since Novgorod the Great became an ideological template for the rest of Russia. Starting the TL back when serfdom wasn’t developed so it could just be made ‘not a thing’ rather than trying to push it back also helped a lot. Making a much happier, freer Russia is definitely a nice perk for me in writing this TL, because OTL Russian history is just so depressing and traumatic.

Now regarding its population, 28 million compared to its figures in OTL is absolutely massive. That is about how many France had at the start of the French Revolution. However the situation here in Russia is substantially different from OTL, to a degree that is unmatched elsewhere. There are two key differences from OTL that make this possible.

First, the inclusion of Lithuania. At this point IOTL, Smolensk was part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The right-bank Ukraine didn’t become part of Russia officially until the 1660s, and a lot of Lithuania would not become part of the Russian Empire until the partitions of Poland-Lithuania. A further note I’d make is that ITTL the inclusion of Lithuania is happening under much more…amiable terms than IOTL. In 1350 Lithuania was very much an eastern-focused, Russian-oriented and influenced state. Russian culture and language was very prominent in Lithuanian high society and Russian Orthodox were the majority of the population. I remember reading a history of early modern Russia (unfortunately can’t remember which) that argued that in the mid-1300s, Lithuania looked like a much more obvious contender for unifying Russia than Muscovy. IOTL Lithuania made a sharp western turn in 1386, which obviously never happened ITTL, and so Lithuania’s Russian focus continued.

Secondly, ITTL the War of the Orthodox Alliance saw the Tatars of OTL Ukraine and Crimea crushed by said Orthodox Alliance. This took place in the early 1400s. In contrast IOTL, the Russians didn’t achieve a comparable breakthrough until Catherine the Great, nearly 350 years later. During those 350 years of OTL, the Tatars spent a great deal of their time raiding Russia and enslaving the population. (They did the same to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Cossacks paid them back in their own coin when they got the chance.)

These raids were insanely damaging. Exact numbers are impossible to determine, but it’s estimated that literally millions of Russians were kidnapped and enslaved over these centuries. That is a lot of demographic damage, and the Russians were also forced to pour an immense amount of, resources into defending their southern frontier, with limited effectiveness considering the losses just mentioned.

TTL Russia just doesn’t have those losses and those expenses. So just removing that alone gives TTL Russia a huge boost over OTL. As for the specific figure of 28 million, back in 1540 I had a benchmark of 14 million for the population of Russia. With a consistent growth rate of just 0.75% (so appreciably less than 1%), in 90 years said population would double to 28 million.

As for western perceptions of Russia, expect to see much of the ‘Othering’, like Russia got IOTL and Rhomania gets ITTL. Even in the 1700s and 1800s, when Russia was a key player in the Concert of Europe, western views of Russians were extremely Othering and frankly rather racist. In the 1800s, when it was pointed out that Russian traders got along much better with Chinese than the English traders, the English argued it was because the Russians were half-Asiatic themselves. (Even American Cold War propaganda would talk about the need to protect American women from the ‘Asiatic menace’.) [Source is Merchants of Siberia: Trade in Early Modern Eurasia by Erika Monahan. This book also provided the basis for the Russian-Chinese trade mentioned in the update.]
 
With the large population and with the Romans funding infrastructure in Siberia we will see an explosion of Russians moving to the east thus we will see a greater number of russians living in Siberia.
And of course with said colonization both russia and rhomania will gain access to vasts amounts of resources
 
As for western perceptions of Russia, expect to see much of the ‘Othering’, like Russia got IOTL and Rhomania gets ITTL. Even in the 1700s and 1800s, when Russia was a key player in the Concert of Europe, western views of Russians were extremely Othering and frankly rather racist. In the 1800s, when it was pointed out that Russian traders got along much better with Chinese than the English traders, the English argued it was because the Russians were half-Asiatic themselves. (Even American Cold War propaganda would talk about the need to protect American women from the ‘Asiatic menace’.) [Source is Merchants of Siberia: Trade in Early Modern Eurasia by Erika Monahan. This book also provided the basis for the Russian-Chinese trade mentioned in the update.]
The Purple Peril will strike Latin hearts like no other with the rise of Russia as one of the premier powers in the Orthodox East.

Now regarding its population, 28 million compared to its figures in OTL is absolutely massive. That is about how many France had at the start of the French Revolution. However the situation here in Russia is substantially different from OTL, to a degree that is unmatched elsewhere. There are two key differences from OTL that make this possible.
Thank you for the explanation. I didn't even consider that the lack of major Tatar raids would have a drastic effect on the Russian population.
 
Thank you for the explanation. I didn't even consider that the lack of major Tatar raids would have a drastic effect on the Russian population.
And not only lack of raids, Black Sea being a peaceful orthodox lake for centuries should do wonders for productivity and population growth. Mare Nostrum on a smaller scale.
 
With the large population and with the Romans funding infrastructure in Siberia we will see an explosion of Russians moving to the east thus we will see a greater number of russians living in Siberia.
And of course with said colonization both russia and rhomania will gain access to vasts amounts of resources
TTL Russia is almost guaranteed to become an hegemon of unparalleled proportions with almost any country OTL.

What Russia did very well OTL was growing wide to protect its boundaries and acquire resources. Where it failed was to leverage this base to grow tall by boosting its population and harnessing the potential of its entire territory by building infrastructure etc. The demographic losses of the 20th century didn't help either too.

TTL Russia will have the demographic muscle to settle Siberia and Central Asia to a far greater extent than was the case OTL. More people will mean more infrastructure, which will mean more development, which means more people and so on ... Consider than even OTL large parts of central Russia, Belarus and even Ukraine are somewhat underpopulated compared to available arable land.

I wouldn't be surprised in by 2000, the population of TTL Russia reaches 750M people or even one billion.
 
TTL Russia is almost guaranteed to become an hegemon of unparalleled proportions with almost any country OTL.
True, although a Russia that is more populous, less centralized, and especially more educated and liberal, will also increase the likelihood of centrifugal tendencies taking hold and gaining broad support. ITTL we will likely not have 'Russia' but rather, 'The Russias', far more so than IOTL; even if they are united/federalized, they will likely retain distinct identities, and the larger they become, the more that will be the case, and the larger the temptation will be to go their own way/look after their own particular interests first at some point in the future, especially if the pan-Russian state faces setbacks or some hard choices (e.g., given the expansion into Siberia, if it comes to a protracted conflict with China, I could very well see Lithuania not being too keen to support it to the end). Of course, it all hinges on what form the pan-Russian state will take.
 
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