"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL

dcharles

Banned
This is a point I'd be interested in as well. Given the huge population disparity between the two countries, a mass migration from the UK to the RoI would potentially have huge implications for the latter. Would the Irish be forced to put in place stricter border measures to prevent themselves from an influx of millions of Britons? And what long term consequences would having a significant minority of predominantly left leaning migrants have for Irish politics? It's a pretty interesting TL all by itself.

I was thinking that a lot of the emigres might be of Irish Catholic descent themselves. Folks from the Manchester or Liverpool area, maybe. But a lot doesn't mean all, and like you said, with the big population difference, an influx of Protestants could really change the landscape of 1970s and 80s Ireland. It's my understanding that social welfare was underwritten and administered by the Catholic Church for a long period of Irish history. According to Wikipedia, there were slightly less than 100k Anglicans in Ireland in 1970. I'm sure that if there were 500k or 600k (or even more), it would rock the boat of Irish society a bit.
 
I was thinking that a lot of the emigres might be of Irish Catholic descent themselves. Folks from the Manchester or Liverpool area, maybe. But a lot doesn't mean all, and like you said, with the big population difference, an influx of Protestants could really change the landscape of 1970s and 80s Ireland. It's my understanding that social welfare was underwritten and administered by the Catholic Church for a long period of Irish history. According to Wikipedia, there were slightly less than 100k Anglicans in Ireland in 1970. I'm sure that if there were 500k or 600k (or even more), it would rock the boat of Irish society a bit.
To be honest, I'd expect that British Catholic and Anglicans migrants would have more in common with one another then you'd expect, given that it was increasingly rare for Britons to define themselves by their religion by this point. I'd also imagine that a lot of migrants would have no religion at all. That might be the thing that poses a greater threat to the power of the Catholic Church.
 
And there's been a lot of Irish emigration in the preceding Junta years, right?

Out of curiosity, what are the religious breakdowns of Ireland and Northern Ireland as a consequence?
This is a point I'd be interested in as well. Given the huge population disparity between the two countries, a mass migration from the UK to the RoI would potentially have huge implications for the latter. Would the Irish be forced to put in place stricter border measures to prevent themselves from an influx of millions of Britons? And what long term consequences would having a significant minority of predominantly left leaning migrants have for Irish politics? It's a pretty interesting TL all by itself.
I was thinking that a lot of the emigres might be of Irish Catholic descent themselves. Folks from the Manchester or Liverpool area, maybe. But a lot doesn't mean all, and like you said, with the big population difference, an influx of Protestants could really change the landscape of 1970s and 80s Ireland. It's my understanding that social welfare was underwritten and administered by the Catholic Church for a long period of Irish history. According to Wikipedia, there were slightly less than 100k Anglicans in Ireland in 1970. I'm sure that if there were 500k or 600k (or even more), it would rock the boat of Irish society a bit.
Yes, between 1968 and Britain joining the EU it is estimated a little under 400,000 Brits emigrated to the Republic, this includes Republican Northern Irishmen moving south, left-wing political exiles and general economic migrants. Whilst many have returned to the UK after the fall of the Junta, British and their decedents still make up around 6% of Ireland's population.

Around 40% of these migrants were spiritually or culturally catholic, many of them being either Northerners moving south or from the mistreated Catholic cities like Liverpool, Manchester and Glasgow, the remaining 60% are a mix of non-religious, Anglicans and others. This means the Anglican population of Ireland is roughly quadruple that of OTL. Catholicism still dominates however as the migrating Anglicans have less attachment to their religion, many being "atheist proddies" as one Irish pal of mine puts it. Catholics would still make up 80% of the Irish population

The Irish initially were very welcoming to British refugees, they expected the Junta to only last a few years, so were perfectly happy to coax over skilled workers, gaining kudos on the international stage in the process. Emigration to Ireland would become harder as time went on, the Irish Government became less welcoming and the Junta invested more into militarising the Irish border.

I confess I'm no expert on Irish politics so happy to be corrected by someone more knowledgeable than me. But I imagine the Irish left would benefit greatly from British emigration, especially the Labour Party, who received thousands of exile votes, as well as the expertise of senior exile figures such as Jim Callaghan or Denis Healey. Sinn Fein would also benefit from the votes of Northern Republicans moving south, and the more direct threat Britain posed to Ireland.
 
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To be honest, I'd expect that British Catholic and Anglicans migrants would have more in common with one another then you'd expect, given that it was increasingly rare for Britons to define themselves by their religion by this point. I'd also imagine that a lot of migrants would have no religion at all. That might be the thing that poses a greater threat to the power of the Catholic Church.

Yes, between 1968 and Britain joining the EU it is estimated a little under 400,000 Brits emigrated to the Republic, this includes Republican Northern Irishmen moving south, left-wing political exiles and general economic migrants. Whilst many have returned to the UK after the fall of the Junta, British and their decedents people still make up around 6% of Ireland's population.

Around 40% of these migrants were spiritually or culturally catholic, many of them being either Northerners moving south or from the mistreated Catholic cities like Liverpool, Manchester and Glasgow, the remaining 60% are a mix of non-religious, Anglicans and others. This means the Anglican population of Ireland is roughly quadruple that of OTL. Catholicism still dominates however as the migrating Anglicans have less attachment to their religion, many being "atheist proddies" as one Irish pal of mine puts it. Catholics would still make up 80% of the Irish population

The Irish initially were very welcoming to British refugees, they expected the Junta to only last a few years, so were perfectly happy to coax over skilled workers, gaining kudos on the international stage in the process. Emigration to Ireland would become harder as time went on, the Irish Government became less welcoming and the Junta invested more into militarising the Irish border.

I confess I'm no expert on Irish politics so happy to be corrected by someone more knowledgeable than me. But I imagine the Irish left would benefit greatly from British emigration, especially the Labour Party, who received thousands of exile votes, as well as the expertise of senior exile figures such as Jim Callaghan or Denis Healey. Sinn Fein would also benefit from the votes of Northern Republicans moving south, and the more direct threat Britain posed to Ireland.
I suspect Catholic Church could retain a good chunk of influence linking itself to the Irish national identity spirit, even more then IOTL. As London perpetrates massacre after massacre and massive crackdowns against democratic activists and Northern Irish Catholic population, probably with Anglican government-appointed bishops blessing them, this would easily lead to an establishment of a public narrative about “Good Free Catholic Eire vs Bad Dictatorial Protestant Great Britain”. IRA attacks would find more support and justification in face of Junta repression and Irish irredentism would run high given the past clashes between colonial UK and Irish freedom fighters in both 1800s and 1900s. In this case the modern Ireland could consider strongly his Irish Catholic Heritage, maybe even as implicit reaction to the “invasion” of British exiles and refugees (I suspect too that after the Junta’s fall and Great Britain joining EU someone in Dublin will start asking for stricter immigration quotas to avoid waves of British “Euro-poors” overwhelm the country and water down its Irish Gaelic identity). Sinn Fein, the former political wing of IRA, is left wing, pro-environment, democratic socialist but also Irish nationalist, soft eurosceptic and against open borders policies, so I can see them making big gains and breaking the two-party system earlier then IOTL.
 
I could easily see the influx of Brits to Ireland leading to the Catholic Church losing some of the grip on Irish society much earlier through things like campaigning for more non-religious schools or the right to divorce coupled with people who’d have gone to the UK otl for various reasons (for abortions, being gay, etc) being forced to remain and campaign harder. That said, tension between Catholic and the perceived to be invading Brits might also cause some serious tension for awhile.

BTW, what does this UK have in place for people seeking criminal prosecutions and damages for actions undertaken during the governments Junta years? Given the strength of the military here, I feel like general amnesty’s on par with the controversial one being proposed for the Troubles otl
 
For Irish politics I'd imagine the junta would divide the political parties on a more standard left-right system as well as reinforce the older republican vs non-republican divide. Fianna Fail would probably become a genuine conservative party and Fine Gael would become a liberal party, rather than big tent groups. Sinn Féin would be normalized quicker, probably ending up as an established third party by the 80s (as opposed to a fringe minor party). Labour would also benefit from the influx of left-wing exiles.

FF and SF as republicans would likely be hostile to immigrants and violently anti-british, I can see SF wanting to recognize Tommy Sheridan as the leader of Scotland's legitimate government in exile. FG and Labour would take a more pro-immigration line and be less hostile to the junta.

I can see the Catholic church losing power faster from a combination of Labour and SF wanting state control of welfare, education, ect, and also despite their claims of moral superiority over the Anglican church, I could see comparisons being drawn anyway to the level of influence the church has in Ireland.

Another wildcard here is that with a stronger economy emigration, which was a huge issue in Ireland for basically the entire 20th century, would be less prominent and so the number of Irish Catholics in the country would even increase. There would instead most likely be increased urbanisation, which would benefit Labour again, and so Ireland would generally be more left wing, but also more polarised politically.
 
FF and SF as republicans would likely be hostile to immigrants and violently anti-british, I can see SF wanting to recognize Tommy Sheridan as the leader of Scotland's legitimate government in exile. FG and Labour would take a more pro-immigration line and be less hostile to the junta.
I wouldn't count myself as an expert on Irish politics, but I'd imagine that being anti-junta is likely to correlate with being pro-immigration, much in the way that being anti-China is likely to make someone in favour of accepting asylum seekers from Hong Kong.

I'd also think that Labour would at least be on the more anti-Junta side of things, given that it is a right wing dictatorship that deposed its sister party. And as @powerab said, it would be hugely influenced by refugees from UK Labour. Hell, a huge number of its members would be Brits who moved from one Labour Party to the other when they hopped over the channel.

There isn't really any huge incentive for any of the notable political parties to be even relatively pro-Junta. My guess is that a consensus would form around an extremely harsh line against the dictatorship, until immigration and trade forces either an FF or FG government to adopt a bit of realpolitik.
 
I wouldn't count myself as an expert on Irish politics, but I'd imagine that being anti-junta is likely to correlate with being pro-immigration, much in the way that being anti-China is likely to make someone in favour of accepting asylum seekers from Hong Kong.

I'd also think that Labour would at least be on the more anti-Junta side of things, given that it is a right wing dictatorship that deposed its sister party. And as @powerab said, it would be hugely influenced by refugees from UK Labour. Hell, a huge number of its members would be Brits who moved from one Labour Party to the other when they hopped over the channel.

There isn't really any huge incentive for any of the notable political parties to be even relatively pro-Junta. My guess is that a consensus would form around an extremely harsh line against the dictatorship, until immigration and trade forces either an FF or FG government to adopt a bit of realpolitik.
I don't mean that they would be pro-junta, FG would end up realpolitik-ing and be at least neutral to it for business reasons and Labour would be very critical of the junta on human rights grounds. What I mean is that particularly SF would be willing to advocate for or passively support opposition paramilitaries whereas Labour or FG would also be critical of terrorism as a form of opposition.

On the issue of immigration I was looking at that from a nationalism and social conservative point of view, which SF and FF were big on. From that perspective there would be the whole protestant and 'not our culture' thing, and with SF being eurosceptic I felt this would be accurate.
 
Totally random question, what became of Rupert Murdoch in this t/l?
Probably stays in Australia for much of his career? In that case, while much smaller in scope than OTL (so no initial foray into British media via the News of the World and the Sun), there could be butterfly effects ahoy if Murdoch consistently backs the Australian Labor Party, from Whitlam onwards.
 

Pangur

Donor
Probably stays in Australia for much of his career? In that case, while much smaller in scope than OTL (so no initial foray into British media via the News of the World and the Sun), there could be butterfly effects ahoy if Murdoch consistently backs the Australian Labor Party, from Whitlam onwards.
Plus if he did not get get stuck in to the UK can't see how he could move to the US the way he did - more butterflies
 
I could easily see the influx of Brits to Ireland leading to the Catholic Church losing some of the grip on Irish society much earlier through things like campaigning for more non-religious schools or the right to divorce coupled with people who’d have gone to the UK otl for various reasons (for abortions, being gay, etc) being forced to remain and campaign harder. That said, tension between Catholic and the perceived to be invading Brits might also cause some serious tension for awhile.

BTW, what does this UK have in place for people seeking criminal prosecutions and damages for actions undertaken during the governments Junta years? Given the strength of the military here, I feel like general amnesty’s on par with the controversial one being proposed for the Troubles otl
Yes amnesty was similar to the amnesty under the Troubles. But it very much depended on your rank, lots of the senior Junta officers threw more junior officers under the bus, so of the few people who have faced consequences for atrocities under the Junta it is mid-level officers
 
@powerab, since Britain fell to a coup, are other western countries more wary and appreciative of their democracy and perhaps less prone to extremism.
Yes absolutely, we saw a huge amount of political instability in Europe during the 50s and 60s, with the 1958 crisis in France and coups in Britain and Greece, it's part of the reason the EU is much more integrated than OTL, as member states saw it as the best way to protect democracy.
 
Totally random question, what became of Rupert Murdoch in this t/l?
Probably stays in Australia for much of his career? In that case, while much smaller in scope than OTL (so no initial foray into British media via the News of the World and the Sun), there could be butterfly effects ahoy if Murdoch consistently backs the Australian Labor Party, from Whitlam onwards.
Plus if he did not get get stuck in to the UK can't see how he could move to the US the way he did - more butterflies
Murdoch never entered British media as it was under state control, although his papers abroad remained broadly supportive in the name of anti-communism. Murdoch still moves away for the ALP, but his influence is much more restricted to Australia and the US. As Pangur said, his main area of expansion is the States and Canada.

This means the Sun remained as a worthy, boring, leftish, broadsheet before being banned by the Junta, so the sun doesn't have it's great OTL infamy. This means the Daily Express is Britain's leading right-wing tabloid
 
Chapter 39: Your Fired
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An empty Woolworths in Tudor, a failed new town, west of Luton

“The building has stopped in Newton. Where a year ago the development was rising out of dusty farmland, now it is an eerie cross between a ghost town and an abandoned building site. The earth-movers and dumper trucks have disappeared from this brand new town that was meant to house 60,000. Where there were once dozens of cranes, only four remain. Half-built Newton is now the sorry symbol of an economy with Europe's second worst unemployment rate as Britain enters deep recession. "If I had known it was going to be this bad, I would never have opened," said James Neighbour in his hardware store on the ground floor of an apartment block. His is one of a dozen or so commercial units that are not bricked up. "The way things are going in this country, I can't imagine when anyone will start building again," he said.”
- Building boom reduced to ruins by collapse of Britain's economic miracle, Giles Tremlet, The Guardian (2009)

Britain's housing market crash had dragged down the bank, now it was dragging down the high-street. Two of the most notable casualties were the Woolworth's Group of high-street shops, JD sport, one of Britain's leading sportswear companies and Marks and Spencer, a prestige food company. Nearly 4,000 high street shops were shutting up shop up and down the country, leaving Britain's high-streets a deserted ghost town. This had a devastating feedback loop as the shutting of shops led retail property values to plummet, dragging Britain’s property market further into the abyss. Many of the high street chains brought thousands of jobs down with them, in the first quarter of 2009 unemployment jumped by over 1.1 million, many of these unemployed being young people who worked in the various department stores and high-street shops. The Government also announced it was scrapping the expansion of Heathrow and Stansted airports, putting thousands out of work overnight.

Britain wasn’t the only country suffering, as economic woes spread across the EU, especially Southern EU nations like Greece, Spain and Italy. The European Central Bank was scrabbling to respond. The ECB cut interest rates to a record low of 1% and announced a record quantitative easing programme of over 80 billion euros. In Britain, Chancellor Simon Hughes unveiled a £14 billion loan guarantee for British businesses amid rumours that chains are large as Sainsbury's were at risk of going under. To oversee a raft of measures to keep British business afloat, Prime Minister Alan Johnson announced he would be appointing self made millionaire and “Apprentice” Star Alan Sugar as the Government's “business tsar”.

Sugar’s appointment raised eyebrows amongst Britain’s business community. Sugar was a self-made man, a rarity under the class-obsessed toffs of Junta era businessmen. Sugar was also best known for the standoffish character he played on the reality TV show “The Apprentice”, the show had been going for over five seasons, with over 8 million average views making Sugar one of Britain’s greatest reality TV stars. Sugar’s no nonsense aggressive persona was certainly popular with the British people, and with the election a few months away Johnson had an eye on the polls as well as the balance sheet. Only time would tell if Sugar’s appointment was a jolt of business expertise, or a cheap stunt by a desperate government clutching at straws.

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Alan Sugar - The British Berlusconi?

“Multi-millionaire businessman Sir Alan Sugar has been made business tsar by Alan Johnson. Having made his fortune through Amstrad, his profile has rocketed through his starring role in BBC's The Apprentice. Famed for his "You're Fired" catchphrase, Sir Alan said that the prime minister should stay in his job. "A lot has gone on in the past few weeks, and he is resolute in his position and is going to see out his governance" he said. "We need to get the economy moving again and, as far as I'm concerned, you couldn't have a better person to do that. "Having had the pleasure of meeting past First Lords I can tell you, for what it's worth, that this fellow should stay in place." "What needs to be sorted out is the economic climate, small businesses and other enterprises." He will work with Chancellor Simon Hughes in an expanded Treasury.”
- Sir Alan hired in government role, BBC News Bulletin (2009)

Sugar had an exciting first few weeks on the job as whilst the largest banks were gobbling up various savings banks, for some this injection of cash still wasn’t enough, both HBOS and Lloyds banks went under within the same week after shares in both organisations plunged by over 70%. The Treasury called it, Britain was officially in recession. Under Simon Hughes the Treasury dropped another bank bailout package totalling over 12 billion euros. Lloyds going under was particularly worrying for Britain's city politics as more and more assets were being pooled in the “big three” banks of RBS, HSBC and Barclays. Whilst the country was suffering a small handful of mostly National supporting men were becoming very wealthy and very powerful, buying up cheap assets in the billions.

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The post-Junta establishment still owed a few favours to wealthy friends

The bailouts did seem to work, at least in the short term, no more banks went under and no more major retailers shut their doors. A positive way of thinking of it was that the worst was over, a more pessimistic person might think that Britain had hit rock bottom. With the major line that controlled the economy no longer going down, Johnson could finally take stock of the political situation and it wasn’t pretty. COCTI reported paramilitary activity by groups like Civil Assistance and SNLA dissidents had shot up by over 50% with unemployed frustrated young men signing up to chuck bombs at the people they didn’t like. Civil Assistance particularly saw a brefet of new recruits in working class neighbourhoods of East London and Manchester, violent clashes in the streets between political youths reached their highest extent since the 2005 election.

In the respectable world of electoral politics the crisis seemed to have benefited the SDP with a rally round the flag effect, Johnson’s personal approval ratings had shot back up, these factors combined with the disarray in the Alternative had the SDP polling around 42%, to National’s 39% and the Alternative’s 5%, still whilst Johnson was still ahead in the polls the SDP/SA bloc would no longer be able to constitute a majority on their own, with the country increasingly polarised and no clear bloc looking likely to win a definitive election, the election was looking to be a bloodbath. Johnson had a few months to get his act together, then he had to answer to the cruel gods of the electorate.

“Prime Minister Alan Johnson came to power in 2005 when Britain was riding high, its economy growing. He rode the wave to push through an aggressive social agenda, legalising gay marriage and promoting gender equality. Today, he governs a country with 17 percent unemployment, the second highest in the eurozone, because of the collapse of a building boom. Many Brits are wondering if he has what it takes to combat the crisis. Mr. Johnson, 58, is a Social Democrat visionary with an old entrenched economy. In an hour long interview at Downing Street, Mr. Johnson explained how Britain could confront its economic crisis. His strategy is to invest in Britain's future without moving an inch to infringe on worker’s rights, and while extending benefits.” - Britain’s Leader Sees Investment as Means to Ease Job Losses, Rachel Donadio, New York Times (2009)

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Johnson's solutions to the unemployment crisis were expensive
 
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Wikibox: Two Unicorns
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Two Unicorns is a 2010 British satirical dark comedy film, directed by Chris Morris in his directorial debut. The film, a satire following a group of homegrown terrorists from Glasgow, stars Sean Biggerstaff, Euan Morton, Billy Boyd, Laura Main and Martin Compston.

Plot

A group of radicalised young Scots aspire to be SNLA dissident fighters. They are Ollie (Sean Biggerstaff), who is critical of British society and capitalism; his very dim-witted cousin Will (Euan Morton); Barry (Billy Boyd), a bad-tempered and rash English socialist; and the naive Freya (Laura Main), who tries to train crows to be used as bombers. While Ollie and Will travel to an SNLA-affiliated training camp in the Scottish Highlands. Barry recruits a fifth member, Harry (Martin Compston). The training trip ends in disaster when Ollie attempts to shoot down a passing plane and destroys part of the camp; the pair are forced to flee. But, Ollie uses the experience to assert authority on his return to Glasgow.

The group disagrees about what the target should be. Barry wants to bomb a local church, while Freya suggests blowing up a tea shop because it represents “British imperialism”. Ollie’s nationalist but pacifist brother visits him and tries to talk him out of doing anything violent. Ollie mocks him, and squirts him with a water pistol, making him flee.

After the group begins production of the explosives, Harry is left alone to watch the safe house as Barry takes Will and Freya out to a field for a test detonation. When they return, they find Harry dancing with an oblivious neighbour (Julia Davis). The group suspects they have been compromised and transport their volatile explosives to a new location in grocery bags. Freya trips up while crossing a field and is killed in the explosion. This angers Ollie, who berates the others and leaves. Freya's head is found, tipping off the authorities, and Ollie visits the others to tell them. They reconcile, and Ollie decides to target the upcoming London Marathon due to having access to mascot costumes. Meanwhile, armed police raid Ollie's brother's house.


The group drive to London in their costumes and prepare to attack. Will expresses doubts about the morality of their plot, but Ollie convinces him to go through with it. A police officer approaches the group, but is satisfied and leaves after a brief conversation. Harry loses his nerve and tries to alert the officer, but is killed when Barry detonates his bomb remotely. The remaining three panic and run away, and the police start searching for them.

Ollie has a change of heart, feeling guilt about manipulating Will into dying for a cause he does not understand, and attempts to prevent the attack. Police snipers receive Ollie’s description and shoot at him, but shoot a bystander in a Wookiee costume instead. Will is cornered by police in a kebab shop and takes the staff hostage. Ollie contacts Will from his mobile phone and convinces him to let all but one of the hostages go. Barry finds Ollie during the phone call, snatches the phone and swallows the SIM card, but, as Barry begins to choke, a passer-by performs the Heimlich manoeuvre, forcing Ollie to flee before Barry's explosives are detonated.

Ollie hurries to a nearby mobile phone store to buy a new SIM card to contact Will, but leaves empty handed due to the convoluted signup process. He spots a colleague (Craig Parkinson) and borrows his phone. He attempts to talk Will down, but his call is interrupted when the police charge in and kill the remaining hostage whom they mistake for Will. Confused, Will detonates his bomb, killing everyone in the kebab shop.

Distraught, Ollie walks into a nearby tea shop and detonates his bomb. In an epilogue, it is revealed that the police later arrested Ollie's innocent brother as a terrorist. They deflect responsibility for shooting the hostage and bystander; and that Ollie killed Matt Lygate when misfiring his rocket in the Highland camp.
 
I wonder, what happened to Gerry Andersom?, as well as the TV shows he created, most famously Thunderbirds and Captain Scarlet, assuming they were made ITTL
 
I wonder, what happened to Gerry Andersom?, as well as the TV shows he created, most famously Thunderbirds and Captain Scarlet, assuming they were made ITTL
Most of Anderson’s most well known productions (Captain Scarlet, Thunderbirds, Stingray, etc) were produced and first aired before the 1968 POD, so they’re likely safe. It’s hard to tell what might come of the man himself after that POD though. Could easily see him going to the US or Canada to try and sell his shows to American networks like they tried to OTL and staying there.
 
Also, a random question what's the status of the Old Firm in this reality. I'm a simple man who likes his football and being Irish I'm picturing something akin to the war in Yugoslavia with various football teams becoming militia's although I could be totally wrong.
 
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