"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL

[powerab]

I'm really enjoying this TL. I do have a question that might have been asked already though. Why did the Junta not really embrace monetarism? The UK economy seems to bear a resemblance to post-Franco Spain, but I'd have expected any British dictatorship from this period to be more Pinochet-esque, given the Powellite sympathies of many of the would be coup supporters.

There were certainly monetarists in the Junta with Thatcher, Powell et al. But most of the early Juntistas including Mountbatten himself leaned towards post-war consensus One-Nation Toryism/Peronism. Much of the establishment at the time who would make up the Junta's core supporters were One-Nation Tories and civil servant barons who were reluctant to radically reform the economy. However the Junta did move a bit more towards Monetarism under Hill-Norton, especially in the 90s when he took a much more Pinochet-esque approach.

By it's very nature of being a relatively new dictatorship fighting against a well organised civil society, the Junta needed a high level of state intervention in the economy to stay in control. Also with very little external investment and no prospect of joining the EU there wasn't much in the way of incentive to move towards monetarism

 

[saltburn861]

Another IC post:

My name is Suko Yamashiro, and I am a 42-year-old from Osaka, Japan, who has been here for 8 years. I have Japanese citizenship, and wish to gain British citizenship, but would I be required to renounce my Japanese citizenship? Officially I'm not supposed to have dual citizenship but it's "don't ask, don't tell" in Japan.
I work in a high-level marketing position for a chain of Japanese restaurants in the UK.

I've also got South African citizenship too, due to an exemption there; worked in marketing in Johannesburg and I was influential in the Japanese community there, especially in the food sector.

Also, not following politics that much, but how's this country's relations with my home country, and what could be done to make them better?

I've heard claims there's some Japanese who want to come here in the UK, dissatisfied with the way things are at home.

 

[powerab]

Another IC post:

My name is Suko Yamashiro, and I am a 42-year-old from Osaka, Japan, who has been here for 8 years. I have Japanese citizenship, and wish to gain British citizenship, but would I be required to renounce my Japanese citizenship? Officially I'm not supposed to have dual citizenship but it's "don't ask, don't tell" in Japan.
I work in a high-level marketing position for a chain of Japanese restaurants in the UK.

I've also got South African citizenship too, due to an exemption there; worked in marketing in Johannesburg and I was influential in the Japanese community there, especially in the food sector.

Also, not following politics that much, but how's this country's relations with my home country, and what could be done to make them better?

I've heard claims there's some Japanese who want to come here in the UK, dissatisfied with the way things are at home.

Britain permits dual citizenship under limited circumstances. Britain permits dual citizenship for all British citizens by origin. As well natural citizens of an EU country, Commonwealth country, and any other country that Britain has a bilateral agreement with.

For those seeking to get British second citizenship, this depends on the county in which they hold their original citizenship. Like Japan it operates on a don't ask don't tell basis. For example, if an America acquires citizenship, Britain will view the person as solely a British citizen, whereas the U.S. will still treat the individual as an American. Practically, the individual will hold U.S. and Spanish dual citizenship.

As South Africa is a Commonwealth Nation, Suko won't be required to renounce her citizenship their, with Japan she would have to operate on a don't ask don't tell level, with the British Government recognising her as a British/South African citizen, and the Japanese recognising her as solely a Japanese citizen.

Relations between Japan and the UK are generally warm, both have had run ins with the PRC, both are relatively new democracies aligned with the United States and the general liberal order. Whilst politically the two countries are closer than OTL, economically their ties are weaker, since Britain has been insular for so long there is a lot less trade between the two nations and Japanese brands are a lot rarer than OTL. Simply by working in Britain and opening up avenues to trade Suko could improve relations.

I can't see a huge number of Japanese people moving to the UK, it is a lot economically weaker than Japan very unstable and the people are generally more socially conservative than in OTL. However for an EU country it is relatively cheap in terms of living costs so that could be a draw for foreigners hoping to enter the EU on the cheap.

 

[SandroPertini98]

Beautiful update, leftist universe is always fascinating.

There's no directly military operated companies but there is a revolving door between the military and industry, so a lot of former top brass have found themselves on the board of major companies and banks. Mostly the government have left them alone, not wanting to spoke potential investors by cracking down on businesses.

I’m wondering about former British militaries becoming mercenaries around the world. South Africa, Russia, Serbia and manu other countries became (in)famous as mercenaries/hitmen hub after their democratic transition left many soldiers without a job or the same freedom of action they had when they set the rules. So I’m wondering if private mercenaries/soldiers companies like Sandline International and Aegis Defence Services exist and what people like Simon Mann and Tim Spicer are doing. Maybe some of their business were more successful due UK support for their dark operations in Third World countries (for example, the failed coup attempt in Equatorial Guinea where was involved Mark Thatcher)?

 

[zarakzia11]

Wonderful update as always. I was curious about the fate of various news outlets such as The Economist, The Guardian or the Financial Times. Did they suffer from media crackdown during the Junta years? Were criticism in the media allowed and to what extent? How British news organisations are received around the world?

 

[powerab]

Beautiful update, leftist universe is always fascinating.


I’m wondering about former British militaries becoming mercenaries around the world. South Africa, Russia, Serbia and manu other countries became (in)famous as mercenaries/hitmen hub after their democratic transition left many soldiers without a job or the same freedom of action they had when they set the rules. So I’m wondering if private mercenaries/soldiers companies like Sandline International and Aegis Defence Services exist and what people like Simon Mann and Tim Spicer are doing. Maybe some of their business were more successful due UK support for their dark operations in Third World countries (for example, the failed coup attempt in Equatorial Guinea where was involved Mark Thatcher)?

Yes private contracting is a huge industry amongst Britain's former soldiers, it is probably the only part of Britain's economy stronger than OTL. A lot of a former paramilitaries have also ended up fighting in various conflicts across the globe, either for political or financial regions. Sandline was never shut down having received support for the British Government and continues to operate to this day, Aegis is also much larger and more influential, both companies are major National donors.

The events around Mann and Thatcher's arrest played out fairly similarly to OTL, with Britain being powerless to stop the arrest and the Johnson administration not in a particular hurry to get a National supporting merc with a history of coup plotting back onto British soil.

Spicer remains CEO of Sandline and a very powerful person in the corporate world, he is in talks with National Party leadership around standing for Parliament but many on National's Liberal Wing are understandably uneasy.

 

[powerab]

Wonderful update as always. I was curious about the fate of various news outlets such as The Economist, The Guardian or the Financial Times. Did they suffer from media crackdown during the Junta years? Were criticism in the media allowed and to what extent? How British news organisations are received around the world?

Guardian was heavily censored and eventually banned for it's anti-Junta views. Both the Economist and Financial Times are still in operation but they were heavily regulated by the Junta so lost much of their international reputation (which they are now trying to claw back). With the fall of democracy several left-leaning philanthropists funded the re-establishment of left-leaning papers such as the Guardian and New Statesman.

Criticism of the Junta was allowed to a certain extent, you weren't allowed to directly criticise the First Lord or the Royal Family, but if you were vague enough you could criticise institutions. For example "Mountbatten bottles healthcare reform" is a no-no but "Disgruntled civil servants frustrate healthcare reform" would be allowed.

British news is a lot less mistrusted, the BBC especially has suffered for this, it's reputation is similar to how one might see Russia Today or similar organisations in OTL.

 

[powerab]

The Respect, Independence, Socialism and Environmentalist Party, RISE; is a pro-Scottish independence, eco-socialist political party. It is also the main sponsor of the independence movement in Scotland on the left focusing on the creation of a Scottish Republic. Its current president is Alex Neil and its secretary-general is Elaine Smith. The party is a member of the European Free Alliance.

RISE, is considered to have strong links to the SNLA, with senior figures including Tommy Sheridan, Jim Sillars and Margo MacDonald having been members. It played an important role in Scottish politics through anti-Junta resistance and in the transition to democracy. Gaining a key position during the 2000's, it became a coalition partner in various Scottish governments. It currently has approximately 13,000 members.

In the 2005 election RISE obtained 13 seats, becoming the joint largest Scottish party and joint fourth largest caucus in the House of Commons. Since then RISE has opted for a "pact" (called the Pact of the Tay) with the Scottish National Party and the Scottish Ecology Party.

RISE became part of all four Scottish Provincial Governments, including leading the Government of Eastern Scotland. The other three Presidencies were assumed by the SNP.

 

[Dan1988]

British news is a lot less mistrusted, the BBC especially has suffered for this, it's reputation is similar to how one might see Russia Today or similar organisations in OTL.

Hmm, in that case there's potential for breaking up the BBC (though not privatizing it) and replacing it with a series of smaller, more nimbler companies better able to restore the reputation of British news. I'm thinking here of Sweden and France as possible examples here; BBC1 in particular could be split off and transformed akin to TVN Chile and/or Channel 4 IOTL (in the case of the TVN model, I suggest this great PhD thesis on the Chilean model, which is possibly worth exploring). Of course, it would be a colossal effort to break apart as venerable an institution as the BBC, but if it has suffered that much of a blow to its reputation, the best course of action would be to start all over again.

 

[saltburn861]

What would it take, ITTL, for the United Kingdom and Taiwan to have good relations, going from frosty to excellent?
There's probably a small Taiwanese diaspora, perhaps not as big as Hongkongers or Chinese, but what would need to be done on both sides - a trade agreement, free movement, dual citizenship?

 

[flasheart]

Did the Junta restore and make use of Capital Punishment?
IOTL capital punishment was last used in 1964 and was suspended a year later before the Junta would have taken power. I could easily see them being tempted to restore it but the question is whether this would have been for use as a criminal penalty or perhaps the unannounced and behind closed doors use that dictatorships often resort to?
Was the junta in general noticeably different than OTL in terms of crime and punishment?

Also what happened to Rhodesia ITTL? How did the junta handle UDI and the Bush War?

 

[EternalCynic]

The butterflies would seriously affect China's trajectory, which would in itself affect the rest of the world.

IOTL, Hong Kong served as the go-to place for cheap manufacturing during the 60s and 70s, and Hong Kong's industrialists were the first to take advantage of China's economic reforms in the 80s, when they moved their factories north of the border. That set the stage for China - and particularly the Pearl River Delta - to become the world's go-to place for cheap manufacturing into the 90s. Also, Hong Kong's liberal culture had a very significant influence on China's masses when they were first exposed to the outside world. Young Chinese at the time listened to Hong Kong pop stars, watched Hong Kong TV dramas, plenty of Hong Kongized anglicisms entered the language, and so forth. I personally, along with all other Hong Kongers, carried a suitcase filled with western chocolates and toys to bring to my much poorer relatives north of the border. The CCP leadership also spent tremendous political capital cultivating relationships with Hong Kong's tycoons in order to attract their investment across all of China's economy, as well as to build political influence in Hong Kong ahead of its handover. Finally, the British administration introduced democratic reforms in the late 80s and 90s in an attempt to solidify its institutions after the handover.

ITTL, Hong Kong would face a very different fate. Pro-CCP riots occurred in 1966. IOTL, these riots were crushed by the British Hong Kong police, and the British administration implemented major social and economic reforms in the aftermath. These reforms led to the rise of the civic institutions that drove Hong Kong's development into a first-world city. ITTL, the British administration would simply keep the city under an iron fist, and there would be no attempt to introduce democratic reforms in the final years of British rule. Hong Kong would have lacked a large middle class, and the much smaller elite would have left for good, as the OP explained. Hong Kong simply became Xianggang City of Guangdong Province in 1997.

That would mean Hong Kong wouldn't serve as the source of modern western influence of OTL. Beijing would still have implemented market reforms and governed in a more liberal direction into the 80s, but attracting foreign investment would have proven harder. Without Hong Kong, the next two most obvious sources of foreign investment would be Taiwan and Japan. It's...just...possible to imagine that Beijing would have taken a softer line towards them. But China as a whole would be poorer, and could either be more liberal or more repressive. Those butterflies would certainly change the world as we know it.

 

[powerab]

Hmm, in that case there's potential for breaking up the BBC (though not privatizing it) and replacing it with a series of smaller, more nimbler companies better able to restore the reputation of British news. I'm thinking here of Sweden and France as possible examples here; BBC1 in particular could be split off and transformed akin to TVN Chile and/or Channel 4 IOTL (in the case of the TVN model, I suggest this great PhD thesis on the Chilean model, which is possibly worth exploring). Of course, it would be a colossal effort to break apart as venerable an institution as the BBC, but if it has suffered that much of a blow to its reputation, the best course of action would be to start all over again.

Some reforms have been made to the BBC such as sacking Junta sympathetic senior officials and rewriting it's charter to stress political impartiality and independence. Alternatives such as Channel 4 are just getting off the ground but the BBC still remains dominant and it hopes to slowly fix it's reputation with time.

 

[powerab]

What would it take, ITTL, for the United Kingdom and Taiwan to have good relations, going from frosty to excellent?
There's probably a small Taiwanese diaspora, perhaps not as big as Hongkongers or Chinese, but what would need to be done on both sides - a trade agreement, free movement, dual citizenship?

Relations are already fairly strong, I guess the UK could grant further recognition to Taiwan but that risks getting them chucked out the UN. Whilst Taiwan and UK are close unofficially, it is hard to formalise anything without angering Beijing.

 

[powerab]

Did the Junta restore and make use of Capital Punishment?
IOTL capital punishment was last used in 1964 and was suspended a year later before the Junta would have taken power. I could easily see them being tempted to restore it but the question is whether this would have been for use as a criminal penalty or perhaps the unannounced and behind closed doors use that dictatorships often resort to?
Was the junta in general noticeably different than OTL in terms of crime and punishment?

Also what happened to Rhodesia ITTL? How did the junta handle UDI and the Bush War?

The death penalty was never formally reintroduced, but security services and the civil guard were given *discretion* to use lethal force when necessary, as long as this didn't get out into the public.

The Junta was generally more authoritarian with longer prison sentences and a stricter line against things like drugs. There is also the inclusion of political prisoners that obviously didn't happen in our timeline.

Rhodesia had declared Independence three years before the coup, which was one of the factors leading to the military stepping in. Due to the fact Britain was so unstable after the coup, Rhodesia had effectively been independent for three years and overnight Britain had lost both international support and the moral high-ground Mountbatten was reluctant to intervene. The Junta opted to leave Rhodesia to their own devices. This of course led to the Bush Wars and the rise of Zimbabwe.

 

[Analytical Engine]

The death penalty was never formally reintroduced, but security services and the civil guard were given *discretion* to use lethal force when necessary, as long as this didn't get out into the public.

Lots of "resisting arrest", and "totally fell down the stairs, sarge", and so on?

 

[powerab]

Lots of "resisting arrest", and "totally fell down the stairs, sarge", and so on?

Bingo.

 

[powerab]

The Fire Brigades Union was one of the Alternative's most powerful unions

“Senior MP Matt Wrack on Monday announced that he was backing Meacher, 68, touching off a fresh round of mudslinging. Yaqoob, a 36-year-old rising star in the party, lamented that the Socialists are "angrier at other Socialists than against the right." Meacher has promised to maintain an alliance with the centrist SDP to keep Tim Collins out of Downing Street. But both Abbott and Yaqoob maintain that the financial crisis has vindicated their view that a clear leftist approach is needed. While Abbott could still win the vote, her ability to lead would be crippled without the support of Communist Party and trade union barons.” - British Socialists in disarray after bitter leadership battle, Laure Bretton, Reuters (2008)

The Alternative’s leadership election became increasingly bitter, as well as divides between pro-SDP and anti-SDP wings of the party, there was also a cultural difference between “the writers and the fighters” as Diane Abbott put it. Abbott was the only one of the four candidates to see action during the Junta years, leading various raids against Junta forces in North London. Meacher on the other hand had been arrested for giving a subversive lecture and spent most of the Junta years in Belmarsh reading, writing and discussing with his fellow political prisoners, it was hardly a cushy life but better than being hunted every day. This lack of toughness was also attributed to the third candidates, Yaqoob and Eno, neither of which had been openly political before the Junta fell, allies of Abbott argued none of the other three candidates had skin in the game the same way she did.

Abbott’s opponents, especially Yaqoob supporters, argued this would be a good thing, they said the party needed to move away from it’s militant terrorist image. Yaqoob argued she could make a clean break from the Alternative’s paramilitary past as a young woman with no links to the Red Brigades or history of violence. Eno too argued that a military structure led by old generals was no way to organise a mass movement. This argument of modernising the party was especially popular with the party’s younger grassroots members, people who had been teenagers under the general strike and were voting for the first time, more concerned with their rent costs rather than which party ran the Federal Committee.

Many younger members were opting for Yaqoob or Eno

Unfortunately for these younger members, the party’s confusing web of alliances and delegates meant they could have very little say without the backing of party bosses or union big-shots both Yaqoob and Eno were effectively locked out of the conversation as endorsements rolled in for Meacher or Abbott, the election was quickly becoming a two horse race. Meacher’s campaign especially was ruthlessly organised, not only did he have the backing of McDonnell, and all the infrastructure he brought, but also most of the major unions. Whilst he consolidated power amongst the upper echelons of the party, Abbott’s broader, but smaller and more divided base of support, struggled to compete.

Abbott was backed by smaller, more militant constituent organisations

At the party’s federal conference, delegates convened to officially elect a new leader, with General Secretary Ken Loach overseeing proceedings. As expected Eno was the first to be eliminated, only gaining 12 delegates from various Libertarian Socialist organisations. Yaqoob was the next to be eliminated, whilst she gained a respectable 40 delegates, she still shriveled in comparison to Meacher’s 90 and Abbott’s 57. With Eno and Yaqoob defeated the battle for the Alternative came down to the main two. Yaqoob’s elimination was met with cheers in Downing Street, Yaqoob had been the most hostile to the SDP, Meacher or Abbott they could work with.

“The bitter battle to lead the socialists tightened between Michael Meacher and Diane Abbott. Alternative MP Jon Lansman told the BBC the election was "too close to call". The two candidates' contrasting styles have been as much of a factor in the battle to lead the party as have their policy platforms. Meacher, who is backed by outgoing leader John McDonnell, came out ahead in a first round of voting by delegates, winning 45 percent of the vote. But third-place contender, MP Salma Yaqoob, threw her support behind Diane Abbott, after she was knocked out of the race with 20 percent of the vote. If all her supporters follow suit, that would give Abbott, who garnered 28 percent, enough votes to overtake Meacher.” - BBC News Bulletin (2008)

In the gap between the next round of voting several candidates came out to speak. In her speech, Yaqoob would officially endorse Abbott, whilst McDonnell and retiring Deputy Leader Lynne Jones would both give barnstorming speeches in favour of Meacher. Many of Yaqoob’s delegates broke with their preferred leader, publicly announcing their support for Meacher - the McDonnell effect seemed to be working for Meacher as his praetorian guard of union shop stewards knew how to whip a meeting in the right direction. After several hours of debate and three rounds of voting, the final results were in.

By a margin of 56% to 44% Meacher had defeated Abbott, fear of a National government, coupled with the influence of the party establishment had granted Meacher a victory. Now came the task of sewing the Alternative back together, as his first act Meacher announced he would be appointing Abbott his deputy in a magnanimous display of unity, his second act was to confirm to the huddle of journalists that he would be maintaining support for the Johnson administration with his eyes “laser focused on 2009 and delivering a socialist alternative for the British people''. Meacher had made history in a very small way, he was the first major party leader to be elected and hand over power in the democratic Britain, maybe there was hope for democracy.

“In his victory speech Meacher denied he would pull his support for the Johnson Government.:"There are major differences of view about the government direction of travel which will be debated at the election in 2009." Mr Meacher criticised a £9bn round of City bonuses "while a quarter of the population is living in poverty", and demanded a new foreign policy. "It is not sustainable to remain as an American glove puppet." He called for a new climate change policy and an "end to fighting for Middle East oil". He said a he would push a "negotiated, not a military, settlement'' to increased tensions with Iran. "I would not put a single UK soldier or RAF pilot in such a mad affair," he told delegates. Mr Meacher urged an immediate rise in the minimum rate to £6 an hour, with an increase "soon" after that to £7 an hour.” - Meacher wins Alternative leadership race, Matthew Tempest, The Guardian (2008)

The 68 year old former lecturer was now Britain's leading leftist

 

[dcharles]

Emigration increased by 30% in 2008, mostly to Ireland

And there's been a lot of Irish emigration in the preceding Junta years, right?

Out of curiosity, what are the religious breakdowns of Ireland and Northern Ireland as a consequence?

 

[Politibrit]

And there's been a lot of Irish emigration in the preceding Junta years, right?

This is a point I'd be interested in as well. Given the huge population disparity between the two countries, a mass migration from the UK to the RoI would potentially have huge implications for the latter. Would the Irish be forced to put in place stricter border measures to prevent themselves from an influx of millions of Britons? And what long term consequences would having a significant minority of predominantly left leaning migrants have for Irish politics? It's a pretty interesting TL all by itself.