powerthirteen
Banned
I let this go the first time as I assumed that (since the Somme does not exactly run North-South) that you were refering to South of the Somme. That would make sense, as Fifth army was already on the other side of German Eighteenth. By this point the entire BEF is north of the Somme. Are you suggesting that the entire BEF is going to throw its heavy equipment aside? If so, perhaps provide a screenshot of the portion of the thesis that covers this?
The BEF was far less fortunate with the rail network in its sector. The British position in Flanders had no depth at all. North of the Somme, the British front lines averaged only about 90 kilometers from the coast. Rail was the BEF's primary means of moving supplies and troops from the ports. The rail network was adequate at best, with most of the lines running east-west. By 1916, the British had to operate 250 trains per day to keep the supplies moving along an overstrained rail system. 95 The entire British transportation system was on the verge of collapse until Sir Eric Geddes was brought in to reorganize it at the end of 147 1916.96 In April 1918, during the last phases of Operation MICHAEL and during Operation GEORGETTE, the British ran 725 ammunition trains to their front. "7 There were two key choke points in the British rail grid. Almost everything that came in through the three northern ports had to go through Hazebrouck. Almost everything that came in through the three southern ports had to go through Amiens. Furthermore, 80 percent of the north-south traffic went through or skirted Amiens. In early 1918 the north-south traffic averaged 140 trains per day, including 45 coal trains from the Bethune coalfields for French munitions factories in the south. "Strategic movements, " i. e. shifting reserves and other large forces, could add an additional 24 to 72 trains per day, resulting in a surge requirement of 212 per day. Haig's Q-Staff estimated that if the Allies lost Amiens, all possible bypasses could only handle 90 trains per day. If Abancourt, 40 kilometers southwest of Amiens fell as well, the only remaining north-south link would be the Dieppe-EuAbbeville Line, with a capacity of only eight trains per day. 98 [Map I] During Operation MICHAEL the British were very worried about losing Amiens. On 27 March the town came under German artillery fire. The day before. Haig's QuartermasterGeneral, Major-General Travers Clarke, convened a meeting to consider the possible courses of action if the Germans succeeded in separating the British and the French, thereby cutting the BEF off from its southern LOCs. On 31 March the Q-Staff issued Scheme X. That quickly evolved into Scheme Y, which had options for evacuating (a) Calais and Dunkirk in the north, or (b) Abbeville, Albancourt and Dieppe in the south. By April, the Q-Staff issued Scheme Z, a plan for abandoning the entire area north of the Somme. The evacuation plan would require 28 days to execute, with 85 percent of the existing supplies north of the Somme being destroyed in place. 99 British contingency planning for losing key segments of their rail network continued through mid-July because Amiens and I lazebrouck both remained subject to German interdicting fire. As we shall see later, that fire appears to have never risen much above the harassment level
Temporarily against the BEF and the Americans.You are really pushing Amiens and Hazebrouk as an "I win button". As far as I can see even Zabecki does not go this far. It is much more complicated than you are making it sound.
Survival of the BEF is actually secondary to the U-boats by this point in the war. The shipping crisis was seen as a threat to British survival, rightly or wrongly. If the BEF has to suffer to keep it from getting worse, that may well be a price LLoyd-George is willing to pay.
I never said that Ludendorff would win WWI as a result of these offensives. What I'm actually saying is that the evacuation of the BEF and the subsequent inability of the AEF to enter the Continent would have given the Germans a rather brief window of opportunity from which to break French morale with further offensives. If they can't do so by 1919, they still lose the war.
Given how holding the Channel Ports would have been impossible without both Amiens and Hazebrouck, I very much doubt that anybody, whether they be in Lloyd George's Cabinet, the BEF, or the Royal Navy, really wants the BEF to die in vain for nothing.
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