German Spring Offensive succeeds-how does President Wilson react?

I let this go the first time as I assumed that (since the Somme does not exactly run North-South) that you were refering to South of the Somme. That would make sense, as Fifth army was already on the other side of German Eighteenth. By this point the entire BEF is north of the Somme. Are you suggesting that the entire BEF is going to throw its heavy equipment aside? If so, perhaps provide a screenshot of the portion of the thesis that covers this?
The BEF was far less fortunate with the rail network in its sector. The British position in Flanders had no depth at all. North of the Somme, the British front lines averaged only about 90 kilometers from the coast. Rail was the BEF's primary means of moving supplies and troops from the ports. The rail network was adequate at best, with most of the lines running east-west. By 1916, the British had to operate 250 trains per day to keep the supplies moving along an overstrained rail system. 95 The entire British transportation system was on the verge of collapse until Sir Eric Geddes was brought in to reorganize it at the end of 147 1916.96 In April 1918, during the last phases of Operation MICHAEL and during Operation GEORGETTE, the British ran 725 ammunition trains to their front. "7 There were two key choke points in the British rail grid. Almost everything that came in through the three northern ports had to go through Hazebrouck. Almost everything that came in through the three southern ports had to go through Amiens. Furthermore, 80 percent of the north-south traffic went through or skirted Amiens. In early 1918 the north-south traffic averaged 140 trains per day, including 45 coal trains from the Bethune coalfields for French munitions factories in the south. "Strategic movements, " i. e. shifting reserves and other large forces, could add an additional 24 to 72 trains per day, resulting in a surge requirement of 212 per day. Haig's Q-Staff estimated that if the Allies lost Amiens, all possible bypasses could only handle 90 trains per day. If Abancourt, 40 kilometers southwest of Amiens fell as well, the only remaining north-south link would be the Dieppe-EuAbbeville Line, with a capacity of only eight trains per day. 98 [Map I] During Operation MICHAEL the British were very worried about losing Amiens. On 27 March the town came under German artillery fire. The day before. Haig's QuartermasterGeneral, Major-General Travers Clarke, convened a meeting to consider the possible courses of action if the Germans succeeded in separating the British and the French, thereby cutting the BEF off from its southern LOCs. On 31 March the Q-Staff issued Scheme X. That quickly evolved into Scheme Y, which had options for evacuating (a) Calais and Dunkirk in the north, or (b) Abbeville, Albancourt and Dieppe in the south. By April, the Q-Staff issued Scheme Z, a plan for abandoning the entire area north of the Somme. The evacuation plan would require 28 days to execute, with 85 percent of the existing supplies north of the Somme being destroyed in place. 99 British contingency planning for losing key segments of their rail network continued through mid-July because Amiens and I lazebrouck both remained subject to German interdicting fire. As we shall see later, that fire appears to have never risen much above the harassment level
You are really pushing Amiens and Hazebrouk as an "I win button". As far as I can see even Zabecki does not go this far. It is much more complicated than you are making it sound.

Survival of the BEF is actually secondary to the U-boats by this point in the war. The shipping crisis was seen as a threat to British survival, rightly or wrongly. If the BEF has to suffer to keep it from getting worse, that may well be a price LLoyd-George is willing to pay.
Temporarily against the BEF and the Americans.

I never said that Ludendorff would win WWI as a result of these offensives. What I'm actually saying is that the evacuation of the BEF and the subsequent inability of the AEF to enter the Continent would have given the Germans a rather brief window of opportunity from which to break French morale with further offensives. If they can't do so by 1919, they still lose the war.

Given how holding the Channel Ports would have been impossible without both Amiens and Hazebrouck, I very much doubt that anybody, whether they be in Lloyd George's Cabinet, the BEF, or the Royal Navy, really wants the BEF to die in vain for nothing.
 
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Come on man, I have been trying very hard to work with you here. I have been debating you from your own source. If you are going to uncritically assert Zabecki's thesis as gospel while assuming things even further than he does, I am not sure I can continue to engage here. Particularly if you are going to be outright dismisive to posters that go against your views.

Thank you for giving me impetus to delve into a source that has been sitting in my "to read" box for a while. May you find what it is you are looking for.
And there is more while I was typing this. As someone who has read the thesis, the question is not one of ignorance of Zabecki's thesis but doubt as to his correctness. Zabecki's credentials are not in dispute but his assessment does go against that of others of equal prominence. Gary Sheffield, John Bourne, Peter Simpkins, Rob Thompson, William Saunders, even Tim Travers all present pictures of the German Spring Offensive somewhat different than Zabecki's, along with others I couldn't find as quickly. It seems therefore reasonable to question Zabecki's thesis. To me this is especially a concern due to the shallow nature of Zabecki's sources on the British Army (the OH and Tim Travers seem to be most of it).

Regardless, good luck to you. I'm afraid I must bow out.
Zabecki's thesis actually does address many of these authors, as well as the points that they make in their respective assessments. His thesis is also more contemporary than the majority of sources about 1918, meaning that unlike many others who have written on this same subject/topic, he has access to the East German Potsdam OHL/Prussian archives that were only relatively recently discovered after being thought permanently lost during the 1945 bombing of Potsdam, and which give a much deeper insight than before into the OHL and the German Army of 1918.
 

CalBear

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Blah, blah, blah.

In actual fact, the entire BEF logistical/supply system in the Flanders and Northern France was a glass cannon dependent on just two key, rather inadequately defended railheads:

https://bootcampmilitaryfitnessinst...t-the-german-1918-offensives-zabecki-2004.pdf
I would STRONGLY suggest you change your posting style to one that proves the respect that other members are offering.

If you can not debate in good faith with at least the level of decorum that is expected in Jr. High classrooms. don't debate at all.
 
"The attack would be supported in the south by the Seventh Army, with a mission of blocking the French forces moving up and deceiving the French into thinking that Paris was the objective. That 297 essentially was the Seventh Army's primary mission in Operation BLOCHER in May 1918. To the north, the Second Army would support the attack by splitting the boundary between , the British Third and Fifth Armies. The Cambrai Salient could be fixed with a frontal holding attack, and later taken from the rear. Once Amiens was taken, the Germans would have to hold it with sufficient force to, , prevent the French from retaking it, while at the same time, shifting sufficient artillery north as rapidly as possible to support the attack on Hazebrouck. Such a series of attacks would have been complex and difficult to orchestrate, but they would have been simpler than MICHAEL-MARS-GEORGETTE as those operations actually played out. "

The seventh army attack would definitely seem to freak the French out about Paris, perhaps hold on to reinforcements, a good diversion. Taking Amiens requires confusion on the Allied side, this adds to the confusion. Certainly better than OTL.

(Wasn't there some screwed deal OTL that Ludendorff wanted the attack to be across two army groups so he could be in charge, take more credit, which would rule this out though?????)
 

kham_coc

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Not interested in debate are we?
No, it's just that the things you raise, are moot.
If Hazebrouck and Amiens fall, the BEF no longer have supply - Then it doesn't matter, it's a cauldron and that only has one outcome.
And without a hinterland, the channel ports could not be held. Once the ports are in artillery range, that's game.
And again, we have the OTL orders from Haig - If he had been overruled well, that would not have ended well (presupposing there is time to countermand the order).
 
Right, to adress the actual question of this thread, I think it's extremely difficult to determine since Winston's decision wouldn't be made in a vacuum and would thus depend on how exactly the success of Germany manifests and its' immediate aftermath.

Now, I'd like to preface this by making clear that I haven't any knowledge of American politics at the time, si there could be in general two reactions:

1. Doubling down. The war must be prosecuted to the bitter end (though whether or not that is possible is up in the air and not part of the topic anyways.

2. Now, despite having said that I don't know anything about WW1 American politics, I do know that even after USW was declared there were still voices which called against entaglements with European affairs. Maybe, after the disasterous defeats the Entente suffered during the Spring Offensive, these forces may gain sufficient traction to force Wilson into trying for a peaceful solution, i.e. for an armistice to be negotiated. I won't speculate any further as it would exceed the boundaries of this thread and there are too many variables to determine anything.
 
No, it's just that the things you raise, are moot.
If Hazebrouck and Amiens fall, the BEF no longer have supply - Then it doesn't matter, it's a cauldron and that only has one outcome.
And without a hinterland, the channel ports could not be held. Once the ports are in artillery range, that's game.
And again, we have the OTL orders from Haig - If he had been overruled well, that would not have ended well (presupposing there is time to countermand the order).

Its not, the Germans, French and British can and did use light rail, horses, and trucks. Guess who has more of all of them? Why are only British logistics a factor when they are up against stormtroopers carrying what meagre supplies they had on their backs? If you're going to make your argument based on British logistics then be prepared to defend the German side, you don't get to handwave horrible German logistics just cause.

If anything they will just pull back while destroying all they can just like the Germans last year. How are the Germans, which were exhausted IOTL going to deal with the French counter attack on a longer, deeper, and even more poorly supplied spearhead? How are they going to bring up enough shells even further than IOTL to threaten the ports if IOTL they crossed the same land on foot and couldn't get enough food out there to avoid starving? Why would the British give up on logistics when they proved IOTL that they can supply under combat situations just fine? The land they took are poorly fortified, away from railheads, reliant on supply by foot and horse, and outside their heavy artillery coverage?

How do they hold the spearheads without heavy artillery, months to setup defenses, food, against an offensive that was planned and prepared a year prior and about to be unleash earlier given German successes?
 
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Right, to adress the actual question of this thread, I think it's extremely difficult to determine since Winston's decision wouldn't be made in a vacuum and would thus depend on how exactly the success of Germany manifests and its' immediate aftermath.

Now, I'd like to preface this by making clear that I haven't any knowledge of American politics at the time, si there could be in general two reactions:

1. Doubling down. The war must be prosecuted to the bitter end (though whether or not that is possible is up in the air and not part of the topic anyways.

2. Now, despite having said that I don't know anything about WW1 American politics, I do know that even after USW was declared there were still voices which called against entaglements with European affairs. Maybe, after the disasterous defeats the Entente suffered during the Spring Offensive, these forces may gain sufficient traction to force Wilson into trying for a peaceful solution, i.e. for an armistice to be negotiated. I won't speculate any further as it would exceed the boundaries of this thread and there are too many variables to determine anything.
The Americans will double down, for a while, its hard with democracies to just reel in and say never mind, after shipping soldiers across an Ocean, plus the Americans haven't suffered casualties yet, so no reason the Americans wouldn't be in for a 1919 general offensive.

The Germans have to do a public peace offensive to get the more weary French and British to stop fighting.

Maybe Ludendorff has to die to make it happen, but Germany has to:
1) Float the idea via the Hauge of a peace conference based on 1914 boundaries in France, Belgium and Italy. (Avoid mentioning the Balkans or Russia)
2) Go back to prize rules on submarine warfare, submarine warfare really seems to annoy the Americans (honestly take some actual prizes and try to get them back to Germany, more supply the better, the raider Wolf made it back in this time period).
3) More privately suggest the French, British, Dominions Japanese, and Belgians can keep their colonial gains.
4) Germany will do a 5 year naval holiday, shoot for 50% of Britain naval strength, Parity with France.
5) Be willing to evacuate most of France and Belgium in exchange for an armistice peace conference (maybe temporarily holding on only to the Briery and Longwy basin, Liege and Namur as negotiation points), once fighting has stopped its tough to resume.

The Allies may resist all this, but its important to establish that Germany is the reasonable party here and put some doubt into Allied soldiers going over the top.
 

CalBear

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And, also, completely dispassionately, the odds are nowhere near as one sided as in the other conflicts - It's hard for the South to win, and most nazi wins requires the nazis to be less nazis (as opposed to be better), whereas this is an entirely plausible german victory basically at the end, it's as if someone wrote a TL where a German win at Kursk sees them winning.

To a large degree i think it's because the 'Anglos' have drunk their own Koolaid - It's the same that sees them Vilify Napoleon as someone in the same league as Hitler, which you know, is wrong, and the more accurate historical analysis of the napoleonic era is, that the reactionary genocidal autocratic empire was... the UK.


Not a eastern front style cauldron, but a WW1 Dunkirk (and a lot of that is just going south).


"the 'Anglos' have drunk their own Koolaid"

Ya, no.

Nationalist BS is unacceptable here.

Cease and desist.
 

McPherson

Banned
Maj-Gen Zabecki's credentials far exceed my own (non-existent) ones, so bear that in mind. That said, I feel he overstates the German case somewhat in the article. German victories in the Spring offensives generally happened where the Allied armies were weak. That is not a criticism of the German offensives, as it means they were well chosen locations, but it none-the-less speaks to a pattern.

Fifth Army was occupying a long portion of front, newly taken over from the French, on poor defensive terrain. The manpower shortage caused serious problems in creating the three layers of defense required by British military understanding of the time. Only the first layer was in place. This is a strong contributing factor to the German success in Michael as this meant that large numbers of troops were trapped and surrounded in isolatable pockets and there was no ability for counterattack. They were also assisted by the fog that morning, which is a hard thing to plan for. Once the front line was broken Fifth Army needed to retreat and block the Germans where possible without even the benefit of their compromised defenses. They were also not able to retreat along their lines of communication without risking losing contact with the French. In spite of this they maintained integrity and kept the retreat from turning to a rout, and in several instances inflicted local reversals and surprising delays on the Germans.

Georgette, meanwhile, took place in a sector covered by the Portuguese Expeditionary Force, a unit that had been abandoned by their government and was having serious problems with equipment, manpower and morale, and many of the surrounding units were those pulled from Fifth Army Sector to rest and recover. In spite of this Second Army was able to retreat along their lines of communication and German momentum was effectively stalled within a few days, though the battle continued for some time.

Blucher was launched against the area covered by the French Sixth Army, which at this point included British units recovering from Michael and American units still training. The commander in the area had refused, in spite of orders, to implement a defense in depth system, and maintained a single forward trench, that was again vulnerable to the extreme German artillery barrage and being cut off.

Often forgotten or lumped in with Michael was operation Mars, in between Michael and Georgette in timing. It was launched against the Northern end of the salient created by Michael, in Third Armies area near Arras. Here the British had a well built existing defensive system, as the front there had not moved in some time, clear lines of communication and supply and the advantage of terrain. The German attack utterly failed to take any of its initial objectives and was immediately abandoned.

The point I am getting at is that the Germans had great success in hitting the Allies where they were weaker and using that success to compel stronger fronts to pull back to avoid being flanked. Where the Allied defensive line was in place they had much less success. Therefore, simply shifting forces to more strategically valuable targets, though definitely a better strategy, is not likely to have the same level of success. In Second and First Army sectors, the troops would be well rested (without Michael forcing divisions to be cycled), and in strong defensive positions, able to retreat on their lines of supply if needed.
What about the manpower issues? Zabecki seems to ignore entirely that the Germans, British and French were running out of men? By March 1919 where was the new levees to come? The Americans?
 
The Americans will double down, for a while, its hard with democracies to just reel in and say never mind, after shipping soldiers across an Ocean, plus the Americans haven't suffered casualties yet, so no reason the Americans wouldn't be in for a 1919 general offensive.

The Germans have to do a public peace offensive to get the more weary French and British to stop fighting.

Maybe Ludendorff has to die to make it happen, but Germany has to:
1) Float the idea via the Hauge of a peace conference based on 1914 boundaries in France, Belgium and Italy. (Avoid mentioning the Balkans or Russia)
2) Go back to prize rules on submarine warfare, submarine warfare really seems to annoy the Americans (honestly take some actual prizes and try to get them back to Germany, more supply the better, the raider Wolf made it back in this time period).
3) More privately suggest the French, British, Dominions Japanese, and Belgians can keep their colonial gains.
4) Germany will do a 5 year naval holiday, shoot for 50% of Britain naval strength, Parity with France.
5) Be willing to evacuate most of France and Belgium in exchange for an armistice peace conference (maybe temporarily holding on only to the Briery and Longwy basin, Liege and Namur as negotiation points), once fighting has stopped its tough to resume.

The Allies may resist all this, but its important to establish that Germany is the reasonable party here and put some doubt into Allied soldiers going over the top.
Right, first of all, for this scenario to avoid being ASB, Ludendorff has to be already dead before the offensive. Like all to many WI scenarios this ignores the simple question of why things would be different. Think of all the "East First Scenarios" which occasionally crop up which almost all ignore just why the Germans relied on the Schlieffen Plan. And with Ludendorff in charge, the offensive would inevitably devolve into a confused mess, as he was already reaching the end of his rope. There's a reason why both "To the Victors the Spoils" and "A Day in July" get rid of him in order to facilitate a more successful operation. So Ludendorff being not in command is a practical necessity for this scenario.

In regards to terms, etc., one must remember that with such a victory France is on the brink. The French pacifist movement is strong at the time, and so, it's very much possible that the French will be forced into negotiations whether they want it or not. Honestly, I don't want to talk about this, as it both exceeds the actual topic of this thread - Winston's reaction, where you're robably right - and because there are far too many variables to consider, and I'd rather not cause a derail.
 
Its not, the Germans, French and British can and did use light rail, horses, and trucks. Guess who has more of all of them? Why are only British logistics a factor when they are up against stormtroopers carrying what meagre supplies they had on their backs? If you're going to make your argument based on British logistics then be prepared to defend the German side, you don't get to handwave horrible German logistics just cause.

If anything they will just pull back while destroying all they can just like the Germans last year. How are the Germans, which were exhausted IOTL going to deal with the French counter attack on a longer, deeper, and even more poorly supplied spearhead? How are they going to bring up enough shells even further than IOTL to threaten the ports if IOTL they crossed the same land on foot and couldn't get enough food out there to avoid starving? Why would the British give up on logistics when they proved IOTL that they can supply under combat situations just fine? The land they took are poorly fortified, away from railheads, reliant on supply by foot and horse, and outside their heavy artillery coverage?

How do they hold the spearheads without heavy artillery, months to setup defenses, food, against an offensive that was planned and prepared a year prior and about to be unleash earlier given German successes?
Perhaps the greatest weakness of both MICHAEL and GEORG is that each was designed as stand-alone decisive battle, rather than as a phase of a larger sequence of operations. And both were designed to attack directly and destroy the enemy's main force, rather than attacking an exploitable vulnerability, such as the BEF's very fragile and shallow logistics system. In other words, each was supposed to be a Vernichtungsschlacht. But if the 296 IL two operations had been designed as phases of a larger operation to attack the enemy's center of gravity (the BEF itself) indirectly, then the decisive points of MICHAEL and GEORG should have been the rail centers at Amiens and Hazebrouck respectively. The loss of either one would have hurt the British severely; the loss of both would have been fatal. Once those two objectives were secure, follow-on objectives would be Abancourt, St. Pol, and then the Channel ports. This, of course, would have been a variation on the "skillful combination of multiple attacks having a highly reciprocal effects" proposed by Wetzell on 12 December 1917, but in this case targeted for the BEF's logistics jugular vein. Amiens became the final objective for MICHAEL almost as an after-thought. If Amiens had been the clear operational objective right from the start, the operation would have looked much different. For a focused drive on Amiens, MICHAEL would not necessarily have been as large an operation. The main attack should have been made by the Eighteenth Army, south of the Somme. The Allies were the weakest there, and the ground was some of the most favorable attack terrain on the Western Front. The attack would be supported in the south by the Seventh Army, with a mission of blocking the French forces moving up and deceiving the French into thinking that Paris was the objective. That 297 essentially was the Seventh Army's primary mission in Operation BLOCHER in May 1918. To the north, the Second Army would support the attack by splitting the boundary between , the British Third and Fifth Armies. The Cambrai Salient could be fixed with a frontal holding attack, and later taken from the rear. Once Amiens was taken, the Germans would have to hold it with sufficient force to, , prevent the French from retaking it, while at the same time, shifting sufficient artillery north as rapidly as possible to support the attack on Hazebrouck. Such a series of attacks would have been complex and difficult to orchestrate, but they would have been simpler than MICHAEL-MARS-GEORGETTE as those operations actually played out. A sequenced series of attacks specifically designed to take Amiens and Hazebrouck would have had a good to very good chance of succeeding. MICHAEL and GEORGETTE came very close to taking those respective objectives; and although GEORGETTE was designed to do that, MICHAEL was not.
 
Context? I'll respond when you put similar levels of effort into your response for my original post. Waste of time otherwise.
 
Likely instead the British form up to defend the beachhead around the Channel Ports. Some forces may be withdrawn to reduce supply requirements but probably not all of them.
Yes, that seems most likely. As long as they have the harbors, they have a line of supply. They're in a much better situation there then Gallipolli, and they held out fairly long there. It would be stupid to give those ports away.
The vast majority of the AEF arrived in through the Channel ports, not the Atlantic or the Mediterranean ,on British ships, and were armed by the French.
I'm pretty sure there are more ports in France beyond the Channel ports. They can arrive in France through those ports, and be armed by the French.
So the better motorized, fed, and supplied BEF operating with internal lines of supply (railroads) is going to forget 4 years of training and experience, collapse and run against troops supplied only with what they can carry?
I have a hard time believeing that too, I don't think that ever happened on a large scale on the western front in WW1.
Given how holding the Channel Ports would have been impossible without both Amiens and Hazebrouck, I very much doubt that anybody, whether they be in Lloyd George's Cabinet, the BEF, or the Royal Navy, really wants the BEF to die in vain for nothing.
Why do you need Hazebrouck and Amiens to hold a pocket around the Channel ports? You can supply the armies straight from the ports.
 
Yes, that seems most likely. As long as they have the harbors, they have a line of supply. They're in a much better situation there then Gallipolli, and they held out fairly long there. It would be stupid to give those ports away.

I'm pretty sure there are more ports in France beyond the Channel ports. They can arrive in France through those ports, and be armed by the French.

I have a hard time believeing that too, I don't think that ever happened on a large scale on the western front in WW1.

Why do you need Hazebrouck and Amiens to hold a pocket around the Channel ports? You can supply the armies straight from the ports.
Neither the ports nor the trucks/roads carried nearly as much logistical capacity for the BEF as the vital railways running through Amiens and Hazebrouck.
 
Neither the ports nor the trucks/roads carried nearly as much logistical capacity for the BEF as the vital railways running through Amiens and Hazebrouck.
How is it then possible that most of the BEF and AEF came to France through those ports? They need logisitical capacity to do that. It can't be both. Either they didn't came through those ports* or the ports had capacity.
 
How is it then possible that most of the BEF and AEF came to France through those ports? They need logisitical capacity to do that. It can't be both. Either they didn't came through those ports* or the ports had capacity.
Roads and railroads are still required in this case in order to transport the needed supplies from the ports to the troops on the ground.

The BEF's truck system didn't carry nearly as much capacity as the railway system, which would have been paralyzed in any case by the capture of Amiens and Hazebrouck.

Once the Channel ports managed to come within the German artillery range, supplying, let alone holding, the garrison in place would have been a rather moot point.
 
There have been a number of comments about the BEF being withdrawn. I just don't see how that's feasible in the time scale of the spring offensives. This isn't the BEF of 1940, this force is much, much larger.
 
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