L’Aigle Triomphant: A Napoleonic Victory TL

Let’s just say Al’s run of good, French-assisted luck has gotten to his head…

“Russia is an absolute monarchy restricted by regicide”. AI, being actively involved in his father’s illness, needed to be careful about the unpopular moves.
but there’ll be plenty of this (and Alaska!) to cover in the coming decades 🙃
Pleeease, not Alaska! 🤣 Besides the fact that it is already covered in all possible scenarios (except, perhaps, it being economic and military juggernaut conquering the whole North America and then the world, but I may miss that one), it was really a dead end thingy marginally meaningful only in a scenario under which Russia made a practical move to the Pacific shore (border by the Amur, ports, etc. ) 4 decades ahead of schedule.
 
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“Russia is an absolute monarchy restricted by regicide”. AI, being actively involved in his father’s illness, needed to be careful about the unpopular moves.

Pleeease, not Alaska! 🤣 Besides the fact that it is already covered in all possible scenarios (except, perhaps, it being economic and military juggernaut conquering the whole North America and then the world, but I may miss that one), it was really a dead end thingy marginally meaningful only in a scenario under which Russia made a practical move to the Pacific shore (border by the Amur, ports, etc. ) 4 decades ahead of schedule.
The Nikolai has a more auspicious voyage in 1808; beyond that, I’ll leave it to future updates
 
I have spent the better part of my evening reading, and immensely enjoying, this well-written, concise and very believable timeline. KingSweden24, one of my next stops will definitely be your Cinco de Mayo timeline which, if this “L’Aigle Triomphant” timeline is any indication, should be just as superb. Thanks for providing this timeline, such a pleasure to read.
 
I have spent the better part of my evening reading, and immensely enjoying, this well-written, concise and very believable timeline. KingSweden24, one of my next stops will definitely be your Cinco de Mayo timeline which, if this “L’Aigle Triomphant” timeline is any indication, should be just as superb. Thanks for providing this timeline, such a pleasure to read.
I can confirm. I've been binging Cinco de Mayo over the last few days and it is fantastic as well.
 
I have spent the better part of my evening reading, and immensely enjoying, this well-written, concise and very believable timeline. KingSweden24, one of my next stops will definitely be your Cinco de Mayo timeline which, if this “L’Aigle Triomphant” timeline is any indication, should be just as superb. Thanks for providing this timeline, such a pleasure to read.
I can confirm. I've been binging Cinco de Mayo over the last few days and it is fantastic as well.
Thank you both so much! You really honor me with such kind words.
 
The Baltic League
The Baltic League

"...he who can exercise the most influence in Germany, will be he who controls Europe..."

- Apocryphal, early 19th century


The Baltic League was meant to do one thing and one thing alone: recreate a League of Armed Neutrality and remake the Baltic, particularly her once-Hanseatic ports, into a Russian lake. Its members were Russia, Sweden (by force), Denmark and Prussia; the League built upon Denmark's suzerainty over the Kattegat and Swedish politics, and the Russian-Prussian military understanding that had quietly come into play by 1811. With the relaxation of the Continental System, and the withdrawal of Britain from the Baltic after the Battle of Ostersund, Russia was poised to dominate the region like never before. Indeed, the economic dominance of Russia over Baltic ports increasingly bent the agrarian, estate-focused economies of Sweden and Prussia towards St. Petersburg's thriving port and its growing merchant marine - and Navy, which Russia's booming economy and flush tax coffers could by mid-decade afford to subsidize at a much higher rate.

The Russian-Prussian "understanding" was not a formal alliance per se; such a move would have created much alarm in Paris and Vienna. Frederick William III was not particularly interested in anything other than his church consolidation project, besides; Prussia's grievous losses at Tilsit had left him humiliated, embittered and, already shy and indecisive, reluctant to make a major power play less his pride be damaged again. Where Prussia had a common interest with Russia, though, was in checking the Duchy of Warsaw that was sandwiched between them; said Duchy had been carved out of Prussian lands at Tilsit and its existence angered both states considerably. The tensions between Prussia and Warsaw increased when the daughter of King Frederick August of Saxony, Maria Augusta, and Warsaw's civic leader Jozef Poniatowski had their first son, Jozef August; the hereditary Duke of Warsaw - and, more dangerously, potential future King of Poland if the geopolitical winds blew the wrong way - had been born. The bond between Saxony and Warsaw had now been tightened; this was a problem for both states.

It did not help matters that Saxony was one of the leading states within the Confederation of the Rhine, in concert with Westphalia and Bavaria to dominate the Union; they were generally seen as the kings aligned with the French. Opposing them were three duchies; Oldenburg, Mecklenburg-Schwerin, and, curiously, Murat's Berg. The latter was mostly due to the eccentricities of Murat himself, who hated being dictated to and desired more influence in Frankfurt, specifically trying to cajole, flatter and control Prince-Primate Karl von Dalberg, who in theory was the head of state of the loose Confederation. The former, however, were aligned with Russia and Prussia respectively, and Mecklenburg-Schwerin desired entry into the Baltic League, which would entrench its ties with friendly Prussia and, theoretically, boost prosperity for influential merchants in Rostock.

With the dismantling of Hanover and Britain's exit from its substantial position of influence over Germany, exercising power over the Confederation became a geopolitical matter. Napoleon was unamused by Denmark's entry into the Baltic League, after he had assisted the state in defeating Sweden and revenging itself upon Britain for Copenhagen; that Oldenburg and Mecklenburg-Schwerin seemed likely to swing into the Russian camp more formally, and thus give Tsar Alexander much more than merely familial influence in Germany - to say nothing of returning Prussia to a position of importance in Germany, an eventuality the Confederation was designed to block - was a substantial problem and potential point of friction within the informal alliance between Paris and Moscow.

The Congress of Erfurt seemed a distant memory all of a sudden, and as 1811 dragged on, it was an open question what the resolution in Germany would be and if the Confederation could survive. The widely divergent internal politics of the various Confederated states did not help matters; administration ranged from the Napoleonic model to reformist South German kingdoms to conservative, unflinching arbiters of the old feudalistic ways. The Confederation's structure did not lend itself to cohesiveness and its foundation had been ad hoc; it was primarily a military alliance first and foremost, an organized German state second. Neither Napoleon nor Tsar Alexander wanted a unified Germany that they could not dominate, nor did Prussia, and Austria certainly did not accept the idea that it had lost the Holy Roman Empire at Pressburg only to see Germany formally unified under some other power. The tensions were at a simmer at first, but as Dalberg began a fierce debate over how much of an economic union the Confederation would be as Hamburg thrived as a "neutral" port but was hammered by duties on overland transport, there seemed to be dark clouds on the horizon over a part of Europe that had experienced them repeatedly before, and the British Cabinet began to wonder if Germany and Warsaw were not the ideal wedges to re-isolate Napoleon once more...
 
The Swedish Succession
I realize now I neglected to include the Swedish succession crisis' resolution; Carl August dies in 1810 just as in OTL so they need to pick somebody. Since Bernadotte has a hereditary title in Rome, the Danish Duke Frederick Christian of Augustenborg (older brother of Carl August) is picked instead; this was almost the case OTL until Bernadotte got tapped at the last minute. Of course, he'll die in 1814, so it is his son Christian (Charles) August who will succeed in Sweden in 1818 as Charles XVI August instead.

(Threadmarked for canon entry)
 

Deleted member 143920

The Baltic League

"...he who can exercise the most influence in Germany, will be he who controls Europe..."

- Apocryphal, early 19th century


The Baltic League was meant to do one thing and one thing alone: recreate a League of Armed Neutrality and remake the Baltic, particularly her once-Hanseatic ports, into a Russian lake. Its members were Russia, Sweden (by force), Denmark and Prussia; the League built upon Denmark's suzerainty over the Kattegat and Swedish politics, and the Russian-Prussian military understanding that had quietly come into play by 1811. With the relaxation of the Continental System, and the withdrawal of Britain from the Baltic after the Battle of Ostersund, Russia was poised to dominate the region like never before. Indeed, the economic dominance of Russia over Baltic ports increasingly bent the agrarian, estate-focused economies of Sweden and Prussia towards St. Petersburg's thriving port and its growing merchant marine - and Navy, which Russia's booming economy and flush tax coffers could by mid-decade afford to subsidize at a much higher rate.

The Russian-Prussian "understanding" was not a formal alliance per se; such a move would have created much alarm in Paris and Vienna. Frederick William III was not particularly interested in anything other than his church consolidation project, besides; Prussia's grievous losses at Tilsit had left him humiliated, embittered and, already shy and indecisive, reluctant to make a major power play less his pride be damaged again. Where Prussia had a common interest with Russia, though, was in checking the Duchy of Warsaw that was sandwiched between them; said Duchy had been carved out of Prussian lands at Tilsit and its existence angered both states considerably. The tensions between Prussia and Warsaw increased when the daughter of King Frederick August of Saxony, Maria Augusta, and Warsaw's civic leader Jozef Poniatowski had their first son, Jozef August; the hereditary Duke of Warsaw - and, more dangerously, potential future King of Poland if the geopolitical winds blew the wrong way - had been born. The bond between Saxony and Warsaw had now been tightened; this was a problem for both states.

It did not help matters that Saxony was one of the leading states within the Confederation of the Rhine, in concert with Westphalia and Bavaria to dominate the Union; they were generally seen as the kings aligned with the French. Opposing them were three duchies; Oldenburg, Mecklenburg-Schwerin, and, curiously, Murat's Berg. The latter was mostly due to the eccentricities of Murat himself, who hated being dictated to and desired more influence in Frankfurt, specifically trying to cajole, flatter and control Prince-Primate Karl von Dalberg, who in theory was the head of state of the loose Confederation. The former, however, were aligned with Russia and Prussia respectively, and Mecklenburg-Schwerin desired entry into the Baltic League, which would entrench its ties with friendly Prussia and, theoretically, boost prosperity for influential merchants in Rostock.

With the dismantling of Hanover and Britain's exit from its substantial position of influence over Germany, exercising power over the Confederation became a geopolitical matter. Napoleon was unamused by Denmark's entry into the Baltic League, after he had assisted the state in defeating Sweden and revenging itself upon Britain for Copenhagen; that Oldenburg and Mecklenburg-Schwerin seemed likely to swing into the Russian camp more formally, and thus give Tsar Alexander much more than merely familial influence in Germany - to say nothing of returning Prussia to a position of importance in Germany, an eventuality the Confederation was designed to block - was a substantial problem and potential point of friction within the informal alliance between Paris and Moscow.

The Congress of Erfurt seemed a distant memory all of a sudden, and as 1811 dragged on, it was an open question what the resolution in Germany would be and if the Confederation could survive. The widely divergent internal politics of the various Confederated states did not help matters; administration ranged from the Napoleonic model to reformist South German kingdoms to conservative, unflinching arbiters of the old feudalistic ways. The Confederation's structure did not lend itself to cohesiveness and its foundation had been ad hoc; it was primarily a military alliance first and foremost, an organized German state second. Neither Napoleon nor Tsar Alexander wanted a unified Germany that they could not dominate, nor did Prussia, and Austria certainly did not accept the idea that it had lost the Holy Roman Empire at Pressburg only to see Germany formally unified under some other power. The tensions were at a simmer at first, but as Dalberg began a fierce debate over how much of an economic union the Confederation would be as Hamburg thrived as a "neutral" port but was hammered by duties on overland transport, there seemed to be dark clouds on the horizon over a part of Europe that had experienced them repeatedly before, and the British Cabinet began to wonder if Germany and Warsaw were not the ideal wedges to re-isolate Napoleon once more...

Another very interesting update!

Germany, as always, is the main cause of discontent amongst Europe. The Russian-Prussian "understanding" is a threat towards Napoleon, while their shared hatred towards the Duchy of Warsaw is a thorn in his side, as is The Baltic League.

Tensions are yet again rising, but Austria is noticeably absent from this chapter. Are they scheming for revenge; or too weak to do so on their own?
 
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Another very interesting update!

Germany, as always, is the main cause of discontent amongst Europe. The Russian-Prussian "understanding" is a threat towards Napoleon, while their shared hatred towards the Duchy of Warsaw is a thorn in his side, as is The Baltic League.

Tensions are yet again rising, but Austria is noticeably absent from this chapter. Are they scheming for revenge; or too weak to do so on their own?
Thank you!

To oversimplify; Austria is not amused by a Prussian/Russian alignment especially as its goal seems to primarily about influence within Germany, so it is not moving into their sphere but rather trying to exercise control within Germany on its own as they are rivals
 
The Baltic League

"...he who can exercise the most influence in Germany, will be he who controls Europe..."

- Apocryphal, early 19th century


The Baltic League was meant to do one thing and one thing alone: recreate a League of Armed Neutrality and remake the Baltic, particularly her once-Hanseatic ports, into a Russian lake. Its members were Russia, Sweden (by force), Denmark and Prussia; the League built upon Denmark's suzerainty over the Kattegat and Swedish politics, and the Russian-Prussian military understanding that had quietly come into play by 1811. With the relaxation of the Continental System, and the withdrawal of Britain from the Baltic after the Battle of Ostersund, Russia was poised to dominate the region like never before. Indeed, the economic dominance of Russia over Baltic ports increasingly bent the agrarian, estate-focused economies of Sweden and Prussia towards St. Petersburg's thriving port and its growing merchant marine - and Navy, which Russia's booming economy and flush tax coffers could by mid-decade afford to subsidize at a much higher rate.

The Russian-Prussian "understanding" was not a formal alliance per se; such a move would have created much alarm in Paris and Vienna. Frederick William III was not particularly interested in anything other than his church consolidation project, besides; Prussia's grievous losses at Tilsit had left him humiliated, embittered and, already shy and indecisive, reluctant to make a major power play less his pride be damaged again. Where Prussia had a common interest with Russia, though, was in checking the Duchy of Warsaw that was sandwiched between them; said Duchy had been carved out of Prussian lands at Tilsit and its existence angered both states considerably. The tensions between Prussia and Warsaw increased when the daughter of King Frederick August of Saxony, Maria Augusta, and Warsaw's civic leader Jozef Poniatowski had their first son, Jozef August; the hereditary Duke of Warsaw - and, more dangerously, potential future King of Poland if the geopolitical winds blew the wrong way - had been born. The bond between Saxony and Warsaw had now been tightened; this was a problem for both states.

It did not help matters that Saxony was one of the leading states within the Confederation of the Rhine, in concert with Westphalia and Bavaria to dominate the Union; they were generally seen as the kings aligned with the French. Opposing them were three duchies; Oldenburg, Mecklenburg-Schwerin, and, curiously, Murat's Berg. The latter was mostly due to the eccentricities of Murat himself, who hated being dictated to and desired more influence in Frankfurt, specifically trying to cajole, flatter and control Prince-Primate Karl von Dalberg, who in theory was the head of state of the loose Confederation. The former, however, were aligned with Russia and Prussia respectively, and Mecklenburg-Schwerin desired entry into the Baltic League, which would entrench its ties with friendly Prussia and, theoretically, boost prosperity for influential merchants in Rostock.

With the dismantling of Hanover and Britain's exit from its substantial position of influence over Germany, exercising power over the Confederation became a geopolitical matter. Napoleon was unamused by Denmark's entry into the Baltic League, after he had assisted the state in defeating Sweden and revenging itself upon Britain for Copenhagen; that Oldenburg and Mecklenburg-Schwerin seemed likely to swing into the Russian camp more formally, and thus give Tsar Alexander much more than merely familial influence in Germany - to say nothing of returning Prussia to a position of importance in Germany, an eventuality the Confederation was designed to block - was a substantial problem and potential point of friction within the informal alliance between Paris and Moscow.

The Congress of Erfurt seemed a distant memory all of a sudden, and as 1811 dragged on, it was an open question what the resolution in Germany would be and if the Confederation could survive. The widely divergent internal politics of the various Confederated states did not help matters; administration ranged from the Napoleonic model to reformist South German kingdoms to conservative, unflinching arbiters of the old feudalistic ways. The Confederation's structure did not lend itself to cohesiveness and its foundation had been ad hoc; it was primarily a military alliance first and foremost, an organized German state second. Neither Napoleon nor Tsar Alexander wanted a unified Germany that they could not dominate, nor did Prussia, and Austria certainly did not accept the idea that it had lost the Holy Roman Empire at Pressburg only to see Germany formally unified under some other power. The tensions were at a simmer at first, but as Dalberg began a fierce debate over how much of an economic union the Confederation would be as Hamburg thrived as a "neutral" port but was hammered by duties on overland transport, there seemed to be dark clouds on the horizon over a part of Europe that had experienced them repeatedly before, and the British Cabinet began to wonder if Germany and Warsaw were not the ideal wedges to re-isolate Napoleon once more...
Very interesting perspective. So, if I understood you correctly, the Confederacy of the Rhine may be slowly moving toward something more coherent than it was in OTL and actually may have a chance to become a meaningful entity just because none of the big powers wants this to happen but also does not want other(s) to have too much influence over it and will try to prevent any attempt to change its formally independent status thus living it up to the Confederacy members to come ( or not to come) with a solidified political structure which makes it de facto independent. I’m changing “very interesting” to “machiavellian”. 🤗🤗🤗

BTW, as far as Sweden is involved (I’m not disputing your schema, just commenting), in OTL Bernadotte did not accept (even if did not clearly reject) Nappy’s offer regarding the Papal estates even if it included a promise of 2,000,000 francs annually. In practical terms it meant just administration of the city of Rome and removal from the political scene. A fancy title for Oscar would be just as meaningless as Princedom of Ponte Corvo with its 6,000 subjects. OTOH, none of the alternative candidates to the Swedish throne would provide as much fun as he did, both in French-Swedish miscommunications and in ability to turn the traditional Swedish policy upside down. Ditto for the military aspect. But this is totally up to you. Well, how about the unexpected demise of your pet candidate? 🥲🥲🥲
 
Very interesting perspective. So, if I understood you correctly, the Confederacy of the Rhine may be slowly moving toward something more coherent than it was in OTL and actually may have a chance to become a meaningful entity just because none of the big powers wants this to happen but also does not want other(s) to have too much influence over it and will try to prevent any attempt to change its formally independent status thus living it up to the Confederacy members to come ( or not to come) with a solidified political structure which makes it de facto independent. I’m changing “very interesting” to “machiavellian”. 🤗🤗🤗

BTW, as far as Sweden is involved (I’m not disputing your schema, just commenting), in OTL Bernadotte did not accept (even if did not clearly reject) Nappy’s offer regarding the Papal estates even if it included a promise of 2,000,000 francs annually. In practical terms it meant just administration of the city of Rome and removal from the political scene. A fancy title for Oscar would be just as meaningless as Princedom of Ponte Corvo with its 6,000 subjects. OTOH, none of the alternative candidates to the Swedish throne would provide as much fun as he did, both in French-Swedish miscommunications and in ability to turn the traditional Swedish policy upside down. Ditto for the military aspect. But this is totally up to you. Well, how about the unexpected demise of your pet candidate? 🥲🥲🥲
More or less! The Franco faction, let’s call them, obviously has an advantage that it’s lead three states are either robust French allies (Saxony, Bavaria) or outright catspaws (Westphalia), and Baden, Wurttemburg and Hesse are inclined towards Paris too. Still, plenty of space for mischief!
 
Very interesting perspective. So, if I understood you correctly, the Confederacy of the Rhine may be slowly moving toward something more coherent than it was in OTL and actually may have a chance to become a meaningful entity just because none of the big powers wants this to happen but also does not want other(s) to have too much influence over it and will try to prevent any attempt to change its formally independent status thus living it up to the Confederacy members to come ( or not to come) with a solidified political structure which makes it de facto independent. I’m changing “very interesting” to “machiavellian”. 🤗🤗🤗

BTW, as far as Sweden is involved (I’m not disputing your schema, just commenting), in OTL Bernadotte did not accept (even if did not clearly reject) Nappy’s offer regarding the Papal estates even if it included a promise of 2,000,000 francs annually. In practical terms it meant just administration of the city of Rome and removal from the political scene. A fancy title for Oscar would be just as meaningless as Princedom of Ponte Corvo with its 6,000 subjects. OTOH, none of the alternative candidates to the Swedish throne would provide as much fun as he did, both in French-Swedish miscommunications and in ability to turn the traditional Swedish policy upside down. Ditto for the military aspect. But this is totally up to you. Well, how about the unexpected demise of your pet candidate? 🥲🥲🥲
The Roman matter, meanwhile, comes with much more temporal authority than OTL since Latium and the former Papal State is being puppetized rather than outright annexed
 
The Roman matter, meanwhile, comes with much more temporal authority than OTL since Latium and the former Papal State is being puppetized rather than outright annexed
But they are still within Nappy’s whim and whatever he gave, he can take away just as easily. And by that time Bernadotte did not have any illusions regarding Nappy who was regularly throwing him under the bus (and allowing Berthier to do the same with impunity).


Besides, this removes one of the most colorful personages from the “center of actions”, which is a pity. Then, being an appointed administrator, is not the same as being an independent ruler and by the OTL time frame equivalent of your TL Bernadotte was already …er… preparing the ground for a future opportunity in Sweden: contrary to the popular legend the whole thing was not an ad hoc blitz triggered by over-enthusiastic Swedish lieutenant. B met AI in Erfurt and seemingly made a good impression, slightly later during one of the court events in Paris he explained to the Russian military-diplomatic agent (actually, a top military spy) his views on whom Russia would need on the Swedish throne (someone who would guarantee safety of the Swedish-Russian border, etc.). Needless to say that official part of lieutenant Morner’s mission (bringing to Paris copy of the letter which was already delivered) did not make any practical sense and that this mission was arranged by few important personages in Swedish politics. The same goes for the “sudden” change of voice in B’s favor: it happen (a pure coincidence) just after B’s firm commitment had been received. Immediately after this everybody started gushing about portrait of Oscar and got ….er….. stimulated by (conveniently displayed) B’s portrait with a drawn sword (to be fair at that time not all “enthusiasts” had been aware of the fact that Bernadotte and Prince Ponte Corvo is the same person but this did not prevent them from voting properly 😜). Before the final stage of the selection process he had (unofficial but not necessarily unknown) approval from both Napoleon and Alexander thus covering pretty much all political angles.
 
But they are still within Nappy’s whim and whatever he gave, he can take away just as easily. And by that time Bernadotte did not have any illusions regarding Nappy who was regularly throwing him under the bus (and allowing Berthier to do the same with impunity).


Besides, this removes one of the most colorful personages from the “center of actions”, which is a pity. Then, being an appointed administrator, is not the same as being an independent ruler and by the OTL time frame equivalent of your TL Bernadotte was already …er… preparing the ground for a future opportunity in Sweden: contrary to the popular legend the whole thing was not an ad hoc blitz triggered by over-enthusiastic Swedish lieutenant. B met AI in Erfurt and seemingly made a good impression, slightly later during one of the court events in Paris he explained to the Russian military-diplomatic agent (actually, a top military spy) his views on whom Russia would need on the Swedish throne (someone who would guarantee safety of the Swedish-Russian border, etc.). Needless to say that official part of lieutenant Morner’s mission (bringing to Paris copy of the letter which was already delivered) did not make any practical sense and that this mission was arranged by few important personages in Swedish politics. The same goes for the “sudden” change of voice in B’s favor: it happen (a pure coincidence) just after B’s firm commitment had been received. Immediately after this everybody started gushing about portrait of Oscar and got ….er….. stimulated by (conveniently displayed) B’s portrait with a drawn sword (to be fair at that time not all “enthusiasts” had been aware of the fact that Bernadotte and Prince Ponte Corvo is the same person but this did not prevent them from voting properly 😜). Before the final stage of the selection process he had (unofficial but not necessarily unknown) approval from both Napoleon and Alexander thus covering pretty much all political angles.
So much skullduggery, even back then!
 
So much skullduggery, even back then!
Yes, B was running pretty much a modern election campaign while the alternative candidates relied exclusively on their pedigrees.

BTW, this is unrelated, but interesting (just read). In the middle of a ball the aid delivers to Crown Prince “Karl Johan” a sealed envelope. Bernadotte opens it, reads and announces: “Napoleon entered Moscow”. Pause. Gloating smiles on the faces of the anti-Russian partisans. Bernadotte declares: “Now, he lost a war!” 🤗
 
Russia is tempering into french sphere but forget that France too can play that game. I think the Ottomans will soon gain french instructors to help rebuild it's armed forces up to french standard or close to it.
 
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