The Allied position in Greece will tend to strengthen over time, but there are outside factors that might cause problems. They're not out of the woods yet, we will have more to hear from Theo.Gradually the Germans will build up their logistics, they have the means. I can think they can reach a 12-division army in the frontline, while having the Bulgarians occupy a bigger part of greek Macedonia in order to avoid having to garrison the long coast from Thessaloniki to the turkish border. But by that time, the position of the Allies in Greece will be even stronger.
Two years sounds reasonable for creating the infrastructure needed for the kind of machine-heavy war the Allies want to fight. Lend-Lease will help.Overall, I think the concept the author has decided, ie a stalemate is the most plausible case. At least until the Allies have completely re-equip the Greek Army and have build-up the infrastructure in greek mainland. That would take at least 2 years.
I think in original FFO it was 1942; I believe that the lower attrition the Allies suffer in the Med overall should make this possible. They will already have started planning - but they have to learn the tricks of amphibious warfare on a smaller scale first.When did the Allies land in Sicily in the original FFO? Is it doable in 1942?
On the down side Greece has to be fed. The Germans not stealing everything in sight obviously helps but that's still ~5 million people with the country not being self sufficient in food. To use my notes from here https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...keys-and-broken-vehicles.494608/post-21145762 Greece in 1939 produced ~1,045,000 tons of wheat and imported ~450,000. Here it has lost Macedonia, Thrace and Epirus, roughly 40% of total territory (and likely somewhat more of the agricultural land, due to the loss of Macedonia and Thrace, lets call it half) and ~2.48 million out of 7.344 million. So she likely needs about 450,000 tons of wheat imported per year. Oh well... not often that farming tractors become strategically important.I think in original FFO it was 1942; I believe that the lower attrition the Allies suffer in the Med overall should make this possible. They will already have started planning - but they have to learn the tricks of amphibious warfare on a smaller scale first.
To be honest I doubt they would attack Sicily first in this timeline. OTL Churchill and Brooke thought Sicily was necessary to push convoys through the Med. However after taking Tunisia they were able to push convoys through in May with Allied air superiority, before the July invasion. ITTL they should discover this fact much earlier. I suspect the logical invasion order then would be Rhodes, Sardinia, Corsica. This puts the whole of Italy in Allied air range.I think in original FFO it was 1942; I believe that the lower attrition the Allies suffer in the Med overall should make this possible. They will already have started planning - but they have to learn the tricks of amphibious warfare on a smaller scale first.
May I humbly suggest Spartans? I think Churchill will like the idea of doughty outnumbered men holding off hordes of uncultured heathens.I like the point about the wave of Hellenophilia about to wash over the Allies. Probably 2nd Armoured will get some catchy nickname in the way 7th Armoured did OTL. I might edit the update to include this.
I am not so sure about it. The Allies enjoyed greater air supremacy in July 1943 compared to 1941 or 1942. It would have been much tougher in TTL to push through convoys without suffering serious losses. Of course in TTL, there is AdA added in the Allied OOB. But the French have a limited number of aircrew. I guess they are currently trying their best to expand the pilot reserves, but such a scheme takes time. In the meantime, they cannot hope to expand if there is serious attrition over the Sicilian Narrows.To be honest I doubt they would attack Sicily first in this timeline. OTL Churchill and Brooke thought Sicily was necessary to push convoys through the Med. However after taking Tunisia they were able to push convoys through in May with Allied air superiority, before the July invasion. ITTL they should discover this fact much earlier. I suspect the logical invasion order then would be Rhodes, Sardinia, Corsica. This puts the whole of Italy in Allied air range.
Well, thank you for the kind words. That's the beauty of an international community of history enthousiasts. Greeks come and share what they know about the Greek Campaign and French provide their own expertise on the personalities of French naval commanders for Lascaris' own timeline.One of the massive strengths of a place like this is the varied experience and expertise available. Just through reading the comments of @X Oristos and @Lascaris (on this thread and John Valentine Carden Survives, I've learned an awful lot about the Greek campaign.
The Allies will certainly make Rhodes a priority. It's a major air threat to their SLOC to Greece and a tempting target being so exposed. However, Sicily has other things going for it besides its value in interdicting (or assisting) transit through the Med. It is closer to Allied air bases than Sardinia, it probably has more suitable landing sites (my impression of Sardinia is that its coast is rockier overall), and taking it brings the Allies within sight of the mainland - possibly a significant political calculation - losing Sicily hurts the Fascist regime more than losing Sardinia. So tentatively I favour Sicily first, though it wouldn't be a straightforward call.To be honest I doubt they would attack Sicily first in this timeline. OTL Churchill and Brooke thought Sicily was necessary to push convoys through the Med. However after taking Tunisia they were able to push convoys through in May with Allied air superiority, before the July invasion. ITTL they should discover this fact much earlier. I suspect the logical invasion order then would be Rhodes, Sardinia, Corsica
I don't mean that to occur here! I have already posted nearly a quarter of what I've written, which I have sketched out to 1945, though I expect to write more as we go along.the main story hadn't moved on from summer 1942 in an IRL year
I considered that, but have gone for Hoplites, which might be an easier sell as propaganda.May I humbly suggest Spartans? I think Churchill will like the idea of doughty outnumbered men holding off hordes of uncultured heathens.
Ditto - I need to read the Carden timeline, I've been put off before now by its size.Just through reading the comments of @X Oristos and @Lascaris (on this thread and John Valentine Carden Survives, I've learned an awful lot about the Greek campaign.
Although the Commonwealth could cover Greek food requirements, the Greek government, the Allies and President Roosevelt all have good political reasons for wanting US supplies to go through also, hence my emphasis on this theme in the text. One further consideration though - the Sicilian civil population must have been much bigger than the Sardinian - today it is three times bigger and probably similar in the 1940s. And they will also need feeding once the Allies conquer the place - I think Sicily's agricultural production collapsed during WW2, like in most of Europe. That would weigh on the side of Sardinia first. But I expect the fighter radius issue will dominate thinking.The Mediterranean route is of greater importance now, since there is an active Greek Front. Greece can be fed by the Commonwealth (aus and nz grain and meat) at least until the Japanese throw a wrench in Indian Ocean logistics. But the Allied needs in military supplies have to be supplied mostly from Britain. An early capture of Sicily would allow that from e.g. summer 1942 onwards.
Agreed - though early 1942 will bring a moment of vulnerability for the Allies, as the Luftwaffe can't do much in Russia at that point, so they might plan some kind of offensive action at that point.The moment Hitler attacks the USSR, the Luftwaffe simply won't be able to bring enough force to bear to close off the Med. They simply won't have the planes.
That implies possibly butterflying away the development of the P-51 Mustang. NOOOO! :-( The Mustang prototype had already flown in 1940, and series production got started in May 1941, but I could see a scenario in which the demand for NAA to build more H81s leads somehow to the cancellation of the project. Say NAA get told to stop before beginning series production; or maybe they stop after the initial British order, and by the time the RAF put the Merlin in it, NAA are already committed to licence-building H81s for the AdA.France Fighting on has a small chance of changing US Fighter output in unexpected ways.
They were really happy with the Curtiss product line, and would likely continue with it, possibly in not being interested in what North American Aviation saying they had a paper project that would be worlds better, they would want more H75 and H81, -Now-.
'Shut up and build the stuff we want to pay for', in a way, not the stuff that would be better for them in the long run.
So a chance that NAA builds Curtiss designs under license
It's definitely a different take for any TL, not just a FFOThat implies possibly butterflying away the development of the P-51 Mustang. NOOOO! :-( The Mustang prototype had already flown in 1940, and series production got started in May 1941, but I could see a scenario in which the demand for NAA to build more H81s leads somehow to the cancellation of the project.
With additional French purchases, along with historic British purchases, there's likely even more constraints on both Curtis and North American..... Who's the most likely candidate(s) to backfill backlogged orders - at that point in time?It's definitely a different take for any TL, not just a FFO
For everyone, here is the early history of how the Mustang came to be
In 1938, the British government established a purchasing commission in the United States, headed by Sir Henry Self.[13][14] Self was given overall responsibility for RAF production, research, and development, and also served with Sir Wilfrid Freeman, the Air Member for Development and Production. Self also sat on the British Air Council Sub-committee on Supply (or "Supply Committee") and one of his tasks was to organize the manufacturing and supply of American fighter aircraft for the RAF. At the time, the choice was very limited, as no U.S. aircraft then in production or flying met European standards, with only the Curtiss P-40 Tomahawk coming close. The Curtiss-Wright plant was running at capacity, so P-40s were in short supply.[15]
North American Aviation (NAA) was already supplying its T-6 Texan (known in British service as the "Harvard") trainer to the RAF, but was otherwise underused. NAA President "Dutch" Kindelberger approached Self to sell a new medium bomber, the North American B-25 Mitchell. Instead, Self asked if NAA could manufacture P-40s under license from Curtiss. Kindelberger said NAA could have a better aircraft with the same Allison V-1710 engine in the air sooner than establishing a production line for the P-40.
John Attwood of North American spent much time from January to April 1940 at the British Purchasing Commission's offices in New York discussing the British specifications of the proposed aircraft with British engineers. The discussions consisted of free-hand conceptual drawings of an aircraft with the British officials. Sir Henry Self was concerned that North American had not ever designed a fighter, insisting they obtain the drawings and study the Curtiss XP-46 experimental aircraft and the wind tunnel test results for the P-40, before presenting them with detailed design drawings based on the agreed concept. North American purchased the drawings and data from Curtiss for £56,000,[verification needed] confirming the purchase with the Purchasing Commission. The Purchasing Commission approved the resulting detailed design drawings, signing the commencement of the Mustang project on 4 May 1940, firmly ordering 320 on 29 May 1940. Prior to this, North American only had a draft letter for an order of 320 aircraft. Curtiss engineers accused North American of plagiarism.[16]
The British Purchasing Commission stipulated armament of four .303 in (7.7 mm) machine guns (as used on the Tomahawk), a unit cost of no more than $40,000, and delivery of the first production aircraft by January 1941.[17] In March 1940, 320 aircraft were ordered by Freeman, who had become the executive head of the Ministry of Aircraft Production (MAP) and the contract was promulgated on 24 April
Not bad for Wiki
So you would see 320 Allison Mustang I
The difference is now you have the French actively vying for floor space for aircraft production, following up of the order of 230 H81A-1/2 previously placed with Curtiss, and the British will never get the Tomahawk I or II models that were close to what the USAAC called the P-40B
OTL you just had British interests at play, here you have both French and British, which will mix things up
It seems that its turret ring is too narrow to fit a turret large enough to accomodate 3 men and 6pdr gun. Somua S40 is 2.12m wide, which does seem rather narrow and limiting, and would require much wider hull (wider by half) which means that it would need a substantial redesign.
The original Marita called for capturing northern Greece (as happened in TTL) and have the Italians and Bulgarians finishing off the Allies with small german contribution. If the Axis failed to do so, then the Germans would return in 1942 to finish the job. After all, it was expected that the USSR would fall in a matter of months. So, overall it resonates with the OTL german strategic thinking.I dont see how the germans dont kick the france and british of the continent before doing the soviet invasion even if hitler was obsessed with the soviet invasion. Hell delaying the soviet invasion for a week or two wouldnt be a horrible idea.
So the AdA could end up with the P-40Q...France Fighting on has a small chance of changing US Fighter output in unexpected ways.
They were really happy with the Curtiss product line, and would likely continue with it, possibly in not being interested in what North American Aviation saying they had a paper project that would be worlds better, they would want more H75 and H81...Customer is always right, who pays the piper calls the tune, etc.