Best pod for a independent Ireland 1500-1800
- Thread starter cjc
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An Irish victory at the Battle of Kinsale. Prior to the battle much of Ireland was under the control of the rebels and England's coffers were nearing bankruptcy, however the Irish defeat saw the decline of Hugh O'Neill's prestige among the lords of Ireland (leading to their pulling out of the war or defection to the English) and the end of Spanish efforts to land troops in Ireland. Even at the beginning of the battle the English general Mountjoy despaired, exclaiming that "this kingdom is lost today."
An Irish victory would see the influx of Spanish troops into Ireland and the advances the English had made in Munster over the prior year reversed as the majority of the minor lords of Ireland would shift their alliegances to Hugh O'Neill and his confederation in order to back the winning side.
An Irish victory would see the influx of Spanish troops into Ireland and the advances the English had made in Munster over the prior year reversed as the majority of the minor lords of Ireland would shift their alliegances to Hugh O'Neill and his confederation in order to back the winning side.
An independent Ireland as in ruled by a family member of the King of England, sure. Make the pre-1798 Kingdom of Ireland more formally independent, even if it remains an English satrapy. That is all very doable.
If you want some kind of native Celtic elite to govern and for any English presence to be gone, that's not happening.
If you want some kind of native Celtic elite to govern and for any English presence to be gone, that's not happening.
The Nine Years' War (the 1593-1603 one) was an opportunity for exactly that though with some better luck for the Irish side. Any TL which brings about a stronger Spanish or French navy could also see a naval invasion of Ireland, OTL in 1627 the Spanish proposed an invasion of Ireland to establish an Irish republic under Spanish protection, but the plan was scrapped after a full-scale Anglo-Spanish war failed to arise.
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Do you have any more details on this pod, was there any point in the battle that with a little luck could have turned it to a Irish victory?
The English army besieging Kinsale was in bad shape by the time O'Neill and O'Donnell's armies arrived (whose position to the north of the English effectively besieged the besiegers), having lost about half of their men to cold, disease and desertion, but due to fear the Spanish force holding Kinsale would surrender, the Irish launched an attempted attack on the English at night in order to link up with the Spanish.
This went horrifically wrong due to the Irish armies becoming lost in the dark and lightning giving away their position, allowing Mountjoy's army to ambush and pick off the tired Irish armies one by one. The celebrations of the English were then mistaken for the Irish arriving by the Spanish who rode out of Kinsale only to realise the Irish had already been defeated after suffering casualties, surrendering ten days later.
Basically better luck and/or discipline on the part of the Irish, choosing a less stormy night to launch an attack, or opting to wait for nature to either starve the English out or force them to launch a breakout offensive could dramatically change Irish history.
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Strongly agree with this, and I’m surprised to see people dismiss the idea Ireland could attain independence pre-Flight of the Earls.
I think you might be projecting English rule in the 1800s onto English rule in the 1500s. Despite the best efforts of the Tudors, before the Nine Years War and start of the Plantation System the vast majority of the island was ruled by native Gaelic Lords. The English only held direct control over the Loyal Provinces (more or less the land around Dublin). Most of the native lords payed lip service to the English throne while privately rebuking them. The Excommunication of Elizabeth I meant any religious obligations of her Catholic subjects to respect her rule were nullified.
Rebellions and plots were common in this period, and they were often funded by the Papacy or Spanish crown. All you need for an Independent Ireland is for a rebellion to succeed, and for someone else to be offered the crown of Ireland (And Phillip II and III were both offered the crown more than once).
As posited by Von Tyrconnell, a good PoD here is the battle of Kinsale.
What would be the effects of an independent Ireland after a victory at Kinsale, and what would said country look like? I imagine the Spanish would be delighted, to say the least.
Could the English colonization of North America be delayed?
Could the English colonization of North America be delayed?
I would've been surprised if they genuinely wanted a Republic rather than either a native raised to Kingship or a Spanish Royal Family member, or maybe some kind of English Catholic pretender (not sure if one existed at this point, the Plantagenets were gone). Republics were not in vogue at the time outside of Italy, after all.
As for the 9 Years War, it did put a challenge to English rule but to my knowledge their issues were more about projecting power out from their fortified areas and not the risk of being driven from Ireland. They also had enough naval power to make more attempts if need be. The plantation being done in wartime would have been tough, but I'm not sure it couldn't be done. England had the manpower to keep trying again and again
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The reason a Republic was proposed was to prevent fighting between the O'Neill and O'Donnell families over whose lineage would be King.
The Nine Years' War saw England's control thoroughout most of Ireland rolled back (and Mountjoy's comment suggests that for the English, Ireland as a kingdom was at sake), though as you suggest the Pale would be trickier to take, O'Neill had attempted to appeal to the Palesmen on the grounds of their common Catholicism but most remained loyal to England. One of the reasons the Irish sought Spanish troops was the need for artillery in order to take walled towns.
Given the troubles the English had during the Nine Years' War despite their advantages, a consolidated Irish kingdom with Spanish backing would be much trickier to subjugate, and would also mean that England would be forced to invest more resources into its army and less on their navy than they did OTL. At a certain point England would likely be forced to accept Irish independence as a fait accompli as the Spanish had Portugal and the Netherlands and find it more worthwhile to try to pry the Irish out of the Spanish sphere via diplomatic means over the more costly task of trying to annex the island.
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A Spanish armada successful landing in Britain.
en.wikipedia.org
or a successful French landing in Ireland in 1796
en.wikipedia.org
Spanish Armada - Wikipedia
or a successful French landing in Ireland in 1796
French expedition to Ireland (1796) - Wikipedia
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