"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL

Chapter 19: Lines in the Sand
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With Tatchell gone, Justice Secretary David Miliband became the new target of anti-terror activists

“The Justice Secretary wept yesterday as he read a note by murdered student Jack Davies. Law chief David Miliband who met relatives of terror victims, listened as families demanded harsher sentences for terrorists. MP Nick Hurd, who organised the hour-long meeting, said: "It was very emotional for all concerned. We heard graphic accounts. It was harrowing." The families told the law chief they wanted the minimum sentence for terror offence to increase and for terrorists to serve 30 years. The meeting was sponsored by the ant-terrorism pressure group the TVDA. TVDA chair Ruth Davidson said: "If a person is found guilty of terror offences in Canada, they have to serve a minimum of 25 years."
- Tears of Law Chief, Martin Fricker, The Mirror (2006)

A lot had changed in the 10 weeks of the election campaign, but what hadn’t changed was the violence, whilst most of the larger groups had gone to ground for the referendum, minor attacks, including the occasional shooting still made the news on a nightly basis. The right-wing Terrorism Victims Defence Association (TVDA) had become one of Britain’s most powerful pressure groups, growing from every act of political violence. Some credited their effective and disciplined campaigns for Tatchell’s removal, and now with their eyes on the European elections later in the year, they continued to set their eyes on the SDP.

The TVDA was led by Ruth Davidson, a former soldier and journalist whose father had been killed by the SNLA. Under her charismatic leadership the TVDA’s influence grew, especially among Scotland’s loyalist community. The TVDA’s latest campaign was aimed at Justice Secretary David Miliband, calling for him to double the minimum sentence for terror offences from 14 years to 30 years, and to remove the immunity afforded to former SNLA and Red Brigade fighters under the Cardiff Accords. Of course this would completely violate the British peace agreement, leaving a very hot potato in Miliband’s lap. Political violence also remained at the forefront of people’s minds as Britain reached the first anniversary of “Red July”, a month of political violence culminating in the bombing of Heathrow Airport by dissident members of the SNLA.

“Britain today marked the first anniversary of the Red July terror attacks with a national two-minute silence. It was one of a series of events taking place today to commemorate the victims of a series of terror attacks across July 2005. Across the country, people stopped to observe the silence at midday, remembering the 73 people who died and the 1000 injured. Hundreds of Londoners gathered to take part in the tribute at the sites of the attacks. At Heathrow, where 37 people died, one of the busiest parts of the capital became still. Buses pulled over to the side of the road, and other traffic stopped. All over the capital and beyond, office workers took to the pavements, while tennis fans at Wimbledon fell silent. The prime minister observed the silence at Albert Embankment, while the Queen gathered at St Giles' Cathedral in Edinburgh.” - UK hold two-minute silence for Red July victims, Associated Press (2006)

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One of the Europe's busiest airport ground to a halt for a minute's silence

Miliband of course ruled out both requests, arguing there needed to be discrepancies in punishment for different levels of terror offence. Of course this only helped to fuel the perception among some voters that the SDP was too close to the former terrorists of the Socialist Alternative and that they were too soft on terror. This attitude was echoed by some in Alan Johnson’s caucus, SDP MPs like Mike Gapes who had made a name for themselves as anti terror crusaders, the issue of terror only served to split the SDP further. With the TVDA and National working round the clock to pull political violence up the political agenda, the SDP’s prospects for October elections started to be in doubt.

The Johnson administration also phased reprimand from the EU for the vast number of Brits trying to emigrate to Europe before free movement came into effect. The Republic of Ireland was particularly overwhelmed by thousands of crossings at the Northern Irish border and across the Irish sea. Over 14,000 Brits had attempted to emigrate within a month of the referendum result and many feared once free movement was made official as many as 180,000 Brits could emigrate within a year. Almost half of those leaving were under the age of 29, mostly students and new graduates seeking a better life. Scotland and Northern Ireland, the most unstable parts of the United Kingdom were expected to especially suffer as it’s youth made for greener pastures, one study by the University of St Andrews showed as many as a third of Scottish 18-24 year olds were considering emigration.

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Badly needed medical staff formed a large part of the expected "brain drain"

Countries like the Netherlands and Sweden, with high English-speaking populations and a relatively close proximity to the UK also faced an influx of Brits attempting to illegally immigrate early. The Netherlands especially had a large British exile community during the Junta so many were moving to be with their relatives. As many as 200,000 people of British descent lived in the Netherlands, with one neighborhood of Amsterdam commonly known as “Free London”. Geert Wilders, a Dutch Conservative opposed to EU enlargement had founded a new anti-immigration “Party for Freedom '' especially capitalised on the risk of British and Polish immigration with some polls showing his new party winning as many as 15 seats.

Internal divisions on terror and the Government’s poor handling of the emigration crisis continued to hurt the SDP, EU elections were famously unkind to governing parties and with everything going wrong they seemed likely to be bruising. National didn’t represent the only problem the SDP faced, EU elections would provide opportunities for insurgent parties like the Green Ecology Party or neo-mountbattenite New Nationalist Party to make their way into elected office. As EU election day got ever closer, officials in Brussels held their breath, if this all went sideways they could end up with another 70 fruitcakes in the European Parliament, not the best way for Britain to make her debut.

“Questions of further expansion, terrorism and emigration are emerging as the main issues of the EU election in Britain. On the issue of expansion the centre-right National Party has objected to any further EU expansion after the latest round, especially in regards to Turkey. Anti-expansion sentiments were echoed recently by Tim Collins who said, "National does not want to see any EU expansion for many years". But the position of National does not seem to be shared by Shadow Chancellor Nick Clegg, who has recently said that expansion is "desirable". He described British politicians opposed to expansion as suffering from "pull the ladder up syndrome". The SDP have pounced on divisions in the National ranks and have accused Collins of trying to divert attention away from real issues.” - Britain's European Parliament election, Lisbeth Kirk, EU Observer (2006)

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Britain's first MEPs would set the tone for the next few years of membership
 
The idea of an anti-British migration movement is something that makes sense within the context of this TL but is so hard to imagine.
 
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Could this lead to a greater level of support for France taking on the role of otl's uk and retaining the franc?
The EU in this TL is actually more integrated as the British coup scuppered expansion plans leading to a much slower expanding but closely intergrated EU, this led the euro to be introduced in the mid 90s with France adopting it at the turn of the century, so the Euro ship has long sailed
 
Imagining Geert Wilders as anti-British rather than the classic Islamophobe is both funny and sad at the same time.
And where's my boy Nigel or Boris?
 
Imagining Geert Wilders as anti-British rather than the classic Islamophobe is both funny and sad at the same time.
And where's my boy Nigel or Boris?
He's still an Islamaphobe but since EU integration is a lot slower the main issue that caused Wilders' political rise OTL (possible Turkish accession) isn't really as prevalent so he's had to switch to anti British/Polish migration.

Farage is currently a backbench National MP for Kent, he is associated with the hardline faction.

Seeing the chaos engulfing Britain, Johnson's family never moved back to the UK, he became an author and right-wing commentator in the states. He is currently the Republican candidate for New York's 23rd congressional district for the 2006 midterms
 
he impact of English
He's still an Islamaphobe but since EU integration is a lot slower the main issue that caused Wilders' political rise OTL (possible Turkish accession) isn't really as prevalent so he's had to switch to anti British/Polish migration.

Farage is currently a backbench National MP for Kent, he is associated with the hardline faction.

Seeing the chaos engulfing Britain, Johnson's family never moved back to the UK, he became an author and right-wing commentator in the states. He is currently the Republican candidate for New York's 23rd congressional district for the 2006 midterms
I once contemplated a BoJo an an American politician TL, with his story being mainly told by an even edgier Matt Taibbi, but held off because it would be too politicky and current and I didn't really have a good story with a decent ending, so held off, so this BoJo ITL makes sense.

What's George/Gideon Osborne doing?
 
he impact of English

I once contemplated a BoJo an an American politician TL, with his story being mainly told by an even edgier Matt Taibbi, but held off because it would be too politicky and current and I didn't really have a good story with a decent ending, so held off, so this BoJo ITL makes sense.

What's George/Gideon Osborne doing?
Osborne served as a speechwriter to Hill-Norton until his death in 2003, he was then elected a National MP for Cheshire in 2005.
 
Seeing the chaos engulfing Britain, Johnson's family never moved back to the UK, he became an author and right-wing commentator in the states. He is currently the Republican candidate for New York's 23rd congressional district for the 2006 midterms
Assuming to big butterflies, he could prevail against John McHugh in the primary running as populist conservative as Doug Hoffman did against Dede Scozzafava in 2008, then winning the general election. Then he could eye the governorship in 2010 and the presidency in 2016. I’m pretty surprised he chose to run in a not so urban urban district: the NY 1st, 2nd and 11th district are more urban and near to his place of birth (and, I can imagine, residency for a large part of his life), New York City. He could run there and then eye the mayorship: running as a law and order, charismatic and telegenic candidate he could be elected as Giuliani and Bloomberg before him. As NYC Mayor he would have a national profile and could use that to launch a presidential bid in 2016 with more force then being a simple moderate Republican representative from Northern New York.
 
Assuming to big butterflies, he could prevail against John McHugh in the primary running as populist conservative as Doug Hoffman did against Dede Scozzafava in 2008, then winning the general election. Then he could eye the governorship in 2010 and the presidency in 2016. I’m pretty surprised he chose to run in a not so urban urban district: the NY 1st, 2nd and 11th district are more urban and near to his place of birth (and, I can imagine, residency for a large part of his life), New York City. He could run there and then eye the mayorship: running as a law and order, charismatic and telegenic candidate he could be elected as Giuliani and Bloomberg before him. As NYC Mayor he would have a national profile and could use that to launch a presidential bid in 2016 with more force then being a simple moderate Republican representative from Northern New York.
The 1st, 2nd and 11th districts all have popular democratic incumbents, especially in 2006 which was a Democratic wave year it would be impossible for a Republican to flip and Johnson knows this, he's happy to have a longer commute for a safer seat. Johnson did run in the primary for the 2001 Republican Nomination for NYC Mayor but was defeated by Bloomberg so is unlikely to try again.
 
Chapter 20: Mr Smith Goes to Brussels
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Tessa Jowell was named as the SDP's lead candidates in EU elections

“While the issues related to economics dominated the political discourse, the big European were absent. An illustrative example can be drawn from an analysis of the electoral broadcasts used by the political parties. To start with, the SDP used a message emphasizing purity. Its electoral broadcast featured a child holding roses against a background of “Ode to Joy” with the slogan “Think about who you are voting for! Choose the future!” No specific mention of the program or candidates was included in the broadcast. In a similar vein, National's advert used the slogan “Together in good and bad times”. It featured the first candidate on its list, Francis Maude, as the candidate preoccupied with the bad situation of the people.”
- The 2007 EU election campaign in Britain, Lecture by Wojciech Gagatek, University of Warsaw (2010)

From Warsaw to Edinburgh, new EU member states were preparing for snap European elections to decide their delegation to the European Parliament, the combined new population entitled them to nearly 200 seats or almost a quarter of the European Parliament, Britain with her 74 seats would take up the lion’s share of new MEPs so whatever British voters decided would have an outsized impact on EU politics. Britain itself would form one constituency, the 74 seats meant there was an effective threshold of 2.4% of the vote to gain an MEP. Britain’s smallest parties, from the far-right NPP to the environmentalist Ecologist Party and Federalist European Party were eying up seats.

The NPP was a particular threat, polling an average of 2%, they were on the cusp of elected representation, antifascist groups were quickly organising desperately to stop the fascists going to Brussels, no pasarán! To combat the NNP emerged Searchlight, Searchlight had originally been founded as an organisation to hold former Junta officials to account and highlight Junta officials still serving senior roles in the civil service, police and military, with the rise of Civil Assistance and the NPP Searchlight quickly became a broad anti Mountbattenite organisation, become the largest non-violent anti-fascist organisation in the United Kingdom.

Searchlight organised in areas of particular NNP strength such as East London and West Yorkshire, organising canvassing sessions and leaflet drops with the support of moderate politicians. Searchlight activists would heckle NNP Leader Colonel Godfrey Bloom wherever he spoke and the organisation hired an impersonator to follow Bloom around (although this had to be stopped when the actor was beaten by Civil Assistance “bodyguards”). For a nation used to violence, the non-violent and often comedic tactics of Searchlight were received well and the NPP struggled to pick up momentum.

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Bloom was mocked mercilessly by activists and the press

“The campaign against a lecturer who claims that black people are inferior is spreading to campuses around the country. Frank Ellis sparked anger after stating he was an "unrepentant Mountbattenite" and was standing to be an MEP for the NNP. In a row that has reignited the debate about academic freedom, Mr Ellis said he supported right-wing ideas such as The Bell Curve. The Bell Curve claims that white people are more intelligent than black people. He also told the Leeds Student newspaper that women did not have the same intellectual capacity as men. Yesterday more than 200 students gathered in Leeds to call for him to be sacked as the struggle picked up momentum at other universities. Hind Hassan, Chair of Leeds Searchlight, said: "This is a fight that is going to go on and on until we get rid of this man.""
- Students protest against NPP lecturer's race views, Matthew Taylor, The Guardian (2006)

Back in the mainstream of British politics, National based their campaign around opposition to further EU powers and expansion. National especially warned about the accession of the Baltic states as well as the “threat” of Turkish accession, warning the integration of these poorer nations would lead a flood of migrants to the United Kingdom. This was roundly mocked in other EU capitals considering Britain was fighting to keep its current residents in, but amongst National voters the argument was convincing, many older Brits only supported the EU for its economic benefits and were loath to accept its social aspect or any element of ever closer union. Hypocritical as it might be, National’s tactics were helping it secure votes.

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Collins had regained control of his party, a strong EU result would further cement his leadership

For the SDP the picture was more mixed, evidence from other EU countries had shown the ruling party tended to get a kicking in off-year EU elections, despite the SDP’s general popularity and the momentum from the Referendum, many in the SDP were nervous. Because of this, the SDP ran a fairly boring campaign, they warned against the threat of political extremism and made a technocratic argument that SDP MEP would be able to get the most out of Brussels. With the insurgent minor parties taking up the news’ time the SDP became a backdrop in the EU elections, whilst the SDP’s polling wasn’t dire it certainly wasn’t brilliant.

For the smaller parties the large constituency and 2% threshold presented a problem, parties like Plaid Cymru struggled to break 1% of the vote on a good day. The SNP, Plaid and other smaller separatist parties like Merbyn Kernow formed the “European Free Alliance” a joint electoral list named after the EU grouping they hoped to join, the EFA campaigned on a platform of a disunited Kingdom within a strong European Union. Whilst RISE was invited to the list they opted to go alone, campaigning for a Socialist Scottish Voice at Brussels. RISE was also invited to join a joint list between Sinn Fein and the Socialist Alternative but they also declined this invitation. Whilst the NPP’s momentum had stalled the Ecology Party had managed to make some electoral progress, at the 2005 election the party had managed to secure a single MP in Surrey as well as a handful of regional legislators in regions like Surrey and East Anglia, now the party was consistently polling around 3%, outpassing RISE and breathing down the neck of the Alternative.

After a very short campaign, with an electorate sick of voting, turnout was expected to be low, no one had managed to make the MEP elections exciting. This of course worried SDP politicians the most, whose voters were more fickle and ambivalent on European questions, like so many other governing parties the SDP expected an unenthusiastic turnout leading on an unenthusiastic kick, but there was nothing to be done now. There was also the issue of voter intimidation, with the eyes of the world no longer on them Civil Assistance began to crawl back out of the woodwork, Civil Assistance activists were reported to harass voters outside polling stations and stalk Searchlight activists. As the polls closed most crossed their fingers and hoped the shadow of fascism wouldn’t fall on Britain again.

“The Leader of the NNP has been ejected from the Humberside Assembly after directing a Nazi slogan at the Provincial President. Col Godfrey Bloom MLA said "Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Fuehrer" - one people, one empire, one leader - as Elliot Morley was making a speech. He was ordered out of the chamber and will face disciplinary measures. Mr Bloom told the BBC he stood by his words, describing the Provincial President as "a national socialist". Mr Bloom made the heckle as Mr Morley, a member of the Social Democratic Party, was speaking during a debate on the bankruptcy of Hull City Council. The National leader in the Assembly Greg Knight challenged Mr Bloom to apologise. He said: "We are in a democracy, this is a democratic era and I would ask you to make an official apology.” - NPP Leader Godfrey Bloom ejected over Nazi jibe, BBC News Extract (2006)

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Civil Assistance members were seen campaigning for NPP and National candidates
 
Chapter 21: The Delegation
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“Despite the growing power of the European Parliament, there are no ‘European’ elections. EU citizens elect their governments, who sit in the Council and nominate Commissioners. EU citizens also elect the European Parliament. But, neither national elections nor European Parliament elections are ‘European’ elections. They are not about the personalities and parties at the European level or the direction of the EU policy agenda. National elections are fought on domestic issues, and parties collude to keep the issue of Europe off the domestic agenda. European Parliament elections are also not about Europe, as parties and the media treat them as mid-term national contests. The famous description of EU elections – as ‘second-order contests’ – is as true of the European elections in 2006 as it was of the first elections in 1974.” - Why There is a Democratic Deficit in the EU, Andreas Follesdal, University of Oslo (2006)

No one was particularly happy with the EU election results. The good news was the far-right NPP was locked out of Brussels, only mustering 1.3% of the vote, barely ahead of the federalist European Party. The hard graft by Searchlight, coupled with some tactical voting for National by NPP supporters, had locked Godfrey Bloom and his ilk out of elected office. The SDP had taken a standard incumbent beating, they received a disappointing election result, dropping 6 points since the General Election in 2005.

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If these results repeated at a General it would represent a 10 point swing from the SDP to National

Many within the SDP attributed this to its lackluster campaign and seeming unethiasasum for Europe, despite helping lead Britain into the EU, the SDP had avoided European issues as much as possible during the campaign. This led to some breaking ranks in the SDP’s iron discipline, with Tony Blair saying the party had underperformed by letting National “bang on about Europe unchallenged”.This also represented the first time since democracy returned to Britain that the SDP had been on the losing side of a poll, two-party politics, divisive as it was, had returned and National was now a real challenge.

National had a fairly good night, it’s soft eurosceptic message had jumpstarted the party, bumping it up 4 points from the 2005 election and allowing them to overtake the SDP. Although not everyone in the party was happy, the reformists especially were annoyed that National was already trying to damage the EU’s reputation for short-term political gain. Reformists such as Nick Clegg had hoped with the hardliners on the ropes after the referendum, Collins would land a finishing blow. Instead by letting the hardliners back in the tent and running an anti-integration campaign, he had thrown them a lifeline. Whilst Collins supporters would argue forgiveness was necessary for party unity, the reformists still felt betrayed. The EU election victory had granted Collins much-needed political capital, but he was still surrounded by wolves on all sides.

“An ally of Tim Collins has warned the National leader that his own MPs have started to have misgivings about the way he is running the party. They believe he is making policy "on the hoof". The message came from Mr Collin's private parliamentary secretary, Oliver Heald. In internal emails to the National leader, he warns that there are doubts about who is in charge of the leadership operation. Mr Heald tells Mr Collins that the leader has taken on so much power that "my concern is that you might be in danger of being completely frazzled". The emails confirm simmering tensions inside the party despite Mr Collin's smooth presentation. The friction points include Europe, nuclear power, and EU parliamentary candidates.” - Collins aide warns of backbench misgivings, Patrick Wintour, The Guardian

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The Colonel's critics were getting louder

The biggest surprise came from the Ecology Party, who leapfrogged over the NPP and nearly overtook RISE. The Ecologists were now Britain's 6th party. Modeled on other European Green Parties the Ecologists ran on a platform of environmentalism above all else, alongside various socially liberal reforms such as the legalisation of cannabis. They had just managed to scrape a single seat in Surrey at the 2005 General Elections, but now they had established themselves as a strong political alternative. Time would tell if they could repeat this success on a national level.

The other parties performed about as expected. The Alternative took a small hit for its support for the SDP but not the cataclysmic result some had feared. In Scotland, RISE and the SNP continued to battle for dominance and the SNP seemed to be winning. Whilst RISE was made up of SNLA members who had laid down their arms, every SNLA dissident attack hit, however unfairly, was blamed on them. Since the SNLA dissidents remained Britain’s most prolific terrorists the hits kept coming. Various other parties like the Cornish Nationalist Mebyon Kernow, Federalist European Party and the Legalise Marijuana Now Party (LMNP) all got respectable results, but failed to break the de facto 2.5% threshold.

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As RISE faltered some activists were filtering back to SNLA camps

Despite the NPP not making it to Brussels there wasn’t an absence of eurosceptic voices, around a quarter of National’s 33 MEPs had supported No in the referendum, some of the most vocal hardliners such as David Nassatrass said he would turn his back as “Ode to Joy” played at the new Parliament’s opening in January. These MEPs coupled with new MEPs from Poland’s Law and Justice Party, and various other eurosceptic MEPs from Europe’s new members would make sure their voices were heard in the chamber, much to the embarrassment of their pro-European counterparts.

With the EU elections out the way the last box was ticked, in just a few months Britain would officially be part of the European family, messy and dysfunctional as it was. Despite the chaos in Westminster and paramilitaries on the streets, Britain had been accepted into "civilised" Europe as a functioning mature democracy, it was a huge win for the transition. Now the Government could turn its eyes back to internal matters. The United Kingdom’s problems hadn’t gone away during accession, they were just swept under the rug, a rug which was getting rather crowded.

“Why do political parties decide to focus on some issues and downplay others? This question is at the heart of our understanding of party competition. There are practical limits to the amount of issues parties can mobilise. Most importantly are the cognitive limitations of voters. Voters use broad-based ideological labels, such as left and right, as heuristics to help them decide which party to vote for at election time. Reducing the number of issue dimensions is also beneficial to the parties themselves. Party competition in advanced democracies is generally perceived to consist of two dimensions. A general distinction between an economic and non-economic dimension.”
- How government parties deal with deteriorating economic conditions, Catherine De Vries (2019)

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The two party system was secure for now
 
So are the Nationals in the EPP? That’s sound as a huge blow for hardliners: although there are eurosceptics in the EPP the British conservatives were always unwilling to unite with them because the major part of EPP is clearly pro-European, forming the Reformist Conservative Party with other soft eurosceptic parties like Law and Justice and Brother of Italy as result. I suppose that Law and Justice just did the same, so ITTL the EPP will be larger and more powerful.
 
So are the Nationals in the EPP? That’s sound as a huge blow for hardliners: although there are eurosceptics in the EPP the British conservatives were always unwilling to unite with them because the major part of EPP is clearly pro-European, forming the Reformist Conservative Party with other soft eurosceptic parties like Law and Justice and Brother of Italy as result. I suppose that Law and Justice just did the same, so ITTL the EPP will be larger and more powerful.
Yes the EPP/ECR split never happened, as the EU is more integrated new member states have to accept things like the Euro and Schegen upon joining, which were some of the main reasons for OTL Tories to split off and form ECR (as well as Cameron's domestic political audience), since things like the Euro aren't really up for the debate there isn't the political space for soft-eurosceptics. You're either with the EPP or hanging out with the hardliners in ID.

National chose the EPP (although PiS joined ID). But yes the EPP is a lot stronger. On the other hand ALDE and ID are both a lot weaker without the Lib Dems and UKIP.
 
Good updates!

Britain isn't as underdeveloped as former iron curtain states but it is definitely weaker than OTL, its more economically in line with some of the larger South European economies like Italy and Spain. However you are right in some ways Britain is more developed that OTL due to things you listed like less union militancy, generally the British economy is a lot more mixed, rather than being entirely services like it is OTL.

The energy industry did last a lot longer but obviously as the world globalised Britain was unable to keep up with places like Russia, China and India so the coal industry has declined, but it was a lot less sudden and traumatic than OTL.

It is true the Junta did set up an oil fund.

Infrastructure is mixed, railways are a lot more prevalent as the Junta considered them strategically important, especially between major cities. But rural infrastructure is a lot worse as the Junta didn't see the need to invest, so there's an even larger urban/rural divide than OTL.

British Energy is an incredibly powerful company yes, a close comparison would be EDF and a lot of the points you made would hold true.

Overall there are some economic upsides to the Junta such as being less dependent on the City and service industry, but the lack of innovation and international isolation has left Britain's economy in a weaker state. But many in the Government hope that once Britain opens up to the EU it will see a massive economic bounce.
It's your TL so the direction in which it goes and lore behind it is yours.
I would nevertheless bring in words of caution about Britain's economy being on par with those of southern Europe because of the junta, as it doesn't completely make sense to me. Fewer troubles with unions and a firmer hand at the till mean that the British junta had an opportunity to create deep seated coordination between industry, banks and state controlled trade unions TTL. Most large British companies like ICI, GE, British Aircraft Corporation and British Leyland will also likely remain along for much longer TTL. This means that the junta has the basis to create British equivalents of South Korean chaebols and to modernise British industry in a way that simply wasn't possible OTL.
Economic prosperity at home is one of the angles that the junta could have pursued to hold on and maintain its rule for so long.

Setting up an oil fund implies a degree of strategic thinking and forward planning that wasn't present in most British governments OTL.

Now of course, incompetence, good old fashioned British plodding along and amateurism may also have been hallmarks of the junta. If that's the case, then Britain's position could be weaker economically speaking.
NATO remains but held together with spit and duct tape. However it's in a much weaker state, France is showing no signs of rejoining anytime soon and the Eastern European expansions of the early 2000s haven't happened. The UK is a major non-NATO ally of the US, but not a full NATO member
NATO not expanding eastwards is HUGE, as it means that Russia won't feel as threatened by the West as it was OTL. Putinism could be avoided altogether and Russia's fate could be vastly different than it ended up being OTL.
 
Good updates!


It's your TL so the direction in which it goes and lore behind it is yours.
I would nevertheless bring in words of caution about Britain's economy being on par with those of southern Europe because of the junta, as it doesn't completely make sense to me. Fewer troubles with unions and a firmer hand at the till mean that the British junta had an opportunity to create deep seated coordination between industry, banks and state controlled trade unions TTL. Most large British companies like ICI, GE, British Aircraft Corporation and British Leyland will also likely remain along for much longer TTL. This means that the junta has the basis to create British equivalents of South Korean chaebols and to modernise British industry in a way that simply wasn't possible OTL.
Economic prosperity at home is one of the angles that the junta could have pursued to hold on and maintain its rule for so long.

Setting up an oil fund implies a degree of strategic thinking and forward planning that wasn't present in most British governments OTL.

Now of course, incompetence, good old fashioned British plodding along and amateurism may also have been hallmarks of the junta. If that's the case, then Britain's position could be weaker economically speaking.

NATO not expanding eastwards is HUGE, as it means that Russia won't feel as threatened by the West as it was OTL. Putinism could be avoided altogether and Russia's fate could be vastly different than it ended up being OTL.
Thanks for your kind comments and balanced feedback.

I appreciate your economic feedback, partly it's for story reasons (I wanted the hypothesise what Britain would look like as a failed state) but I would push back on some of your points. Whilst a more centralised forward-looking, industrial economy might have been good for Britain in the short term, once China and India start to emerge onto the scene Britain would be fighting a losing battle as an old school one-nation mixed economy, meanwhile, the rest of Europe is moving towards services. Britain's late entry to the EU also meant Britain never got the investment and economic opportunities that say Italy or Spain got.

NATO expansion is still happening just slower, some Eastern European states like Poland and Czechia are in NATO, but most 2004 states like Romania and Bulgaria have had their accession pushed back to the end of the decade. As for Russia, I fear I don't know enough about Russian politics to comment but yes I imagine it would have a large impact on Putinism
 
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