TL-191: Pax Romana - Neutrality for the Kingdom of Italy (1914-1944)

I think this really hits the point home for me then. This makes sense. Perhaps in this case without the fascists in power and having a preference for Fiat, aircraft development truly is allowed to progress at a better place in Italy. I was aware that political favoritism might be the cause of some problems for Italy, but I didn’t know it extended this far into technical development.

Mussolini not being power really saves aircraft development then.

Basically an incredible big chunck of italian problems in OTL WW2 come to the fact that for 20 years Benny had permitted, to mantain their support, to the big industrial conglomerate like Fiat and Ansaldo to do as they please in term of price and research, even forcing the army to buy things that they know were obsolete even before enter service and killing any incentive to real innovate and modernize the production lines because contract were always forthcoming whatever they produced
 
Basically an incredible big chunck of italian problems in OTL WW2 come to the fact that for 20 years Benny had permitted, to mantain their support, to the big industrial conglomerate like Fiat and Ansaldo to do as they please in term of price and research, even forcing the army to buy things that they know were obsolete even before enter service and killing any incentive to real innovate and modernize the production lines because contract were always forthcoming whatever they produced
It was that bad then?

Well, in that case, we may actually see an Italian Army that’s more well equipped by comparison, if a bit smaller.

This is getting off the topic of the Air Force, but it fascinates me how even this favoritism with companies also effected the army. In some of my reading for the Italian war effort during WW2 one of the many problems I keep running across is this issue of divisions being sorely under equipped and with inadequate equipment. The willingness to fight wasn’t an issue, but not having the tools to fight the war greatly effected morale. Here I thought one of the primary concerns was that Italy just lacked the industrial infrastructure to produce their equipment. It seems in this case one of the many big problems was that equipment upgrades were stymied long before Italy decided to get involved in WW2, because of political decisions made during the 20 years Mussolini was in power.
 
It was that bad then?

Well, in that case, we may actually see an Italian Army that’s more well equipped by comparison, if a bit smaller.

This is getting off the topic of the Air Force, but it fascinates me how even this favoritism with companies also effected the army. In some of my reading for the Italian war effort during WW2 one of the many problems I keep running across is this issue of divisions being sorely under equipped and with inadequate equipment. The willingness to fight wasn’t an issue, but not having the tools to fight the war greatly effected morale. Here I thought one of the primary concerns was that Italy just lacked the industrial infrastructure to produce their equipment. It seems in this case one of the many big problems was that equipment upgrades were stymied long before Italy decided to get involved in WW2, because of political decisions made during the 20 years Mussolini was in power.

YEah, the original plan for the binary division was a sound one at least in theory, more light division equipped for a quick movement war, unfortunely not only Italy had not the industrial base to supply all that division but the expediture in Spain and Abyssinia used a lot of the money for the planned upgrade and Benny (and a lot of the army top brass) favored the binary plan because increased the number of division and in this manner the numbers of officers slot available (one of the reason of the scarce quality of the italian officer corps was the fact that was very quickly enlarged beyond any serious capacity to fill the new jobs with competent people).

Sure the italian army will still have problem with a not excellent officer corps, not the most modern equipment, a limited industrial base as OTL but with much less degree, also the Air Force more importantly will have more money for training, as the fighter pilots have less hours of training than the allies or the Germans and before the war due to budget reason night fight and bombardment practice were unofficially abolished.
 
YEah, the original plan for the binary division was a sound one at least in theory, more light division equipped for a quick movement war, unfortunely not only Italy had not the industrial base to supply all that division but the expediture in Spain and Abyssinia used a lot of the money for the planned upgrade and Benny (and a lot of the army top brass) favored the binary plan because increased the number of division and in this manner the numbers of officers slot available (one of the reason of the scarce quality of the italian officer corps was the fact that was very quickly enlarged beyond any serious capacity to fill the new jobs with competent people).

Sure the italian army will still have problem with a not excellent officer corps, not the most modern equipment, a limited industrial base as OTL but with much less degree, also the Air Force more importantly will have more money for training, as the fighter pilots have less hours of training than the allies or the Germans and before the war due to budget reason night fight and bombardment practice were unofficially abolished.
Yes. As I understand it, the Italian Army always had a stubborn problem of having an over abundance of officers and not enough NCOs. Even in peace time and through neutrality I don’t foresee the problem going away. Part of the reason seemed to be because of Italy’s unique problem with literacy. While there may have been competent men in the lower ranks that could lead, they lacked the educational aptitude to perform other tasks associated with a higher rank - and I by this, I mean that an alarming number of enlisted men were illiterate. This was a problem for the Italians that extended into WW1. While I’m not sure if this affected them as much in WW2, to me it does explain some reason for me as to why the officer corps was so unusually large in Italy.

Hopefully neutrality and some time can sort this problem out. They may have a smaller army, hopefully in that time they can really improve things in this timeline.
 
Kind of random, but it's possible that without Mussolini being in power in TL-191, the entire Sodder family would still be alive after 1945. Maybe Joseph Sodder (and maybe one of his brothers) would have still served during SGW.
 
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Kind of random, but it's possible that without Mussolini being in power in TL-191, the entire Sodder family would still be alive after 1945. Maybe Joseph Sodder (and maybe one of his brothers) would have still served during SGW.
Ah now I see what you mean. George Sodder was basically an outspoken critic of Benito Mussolini in his Italian immigrant community. With no Mussolini in power for 20 years, you’re suspecting that the mysterious disappearances of the Sodder kids might not have happened. It would mean no one in his community would have been offended, and that no one would make threats against him and his family, this leading to the fire that burned down their house and the mystery that followed.
 
This was brought up before, but since we’re talking about Italy’s equipment again, I believe a majority of their combat experience to test out all this stuff would come from their various and inevitable colonial wars in Libya and Somalia.

During the interwar period, the Italians fought against the Senussi Order in Libya and a few of the rebellious sultans in their holdings in northern Somalia. I’ve read that, in regards to Libya, Mussolini was an advocate of putting down the rebellions there, re-establishing colonial rule. Even with him out of the picture I foresee this kind of thing still happening... unless I’m missing a critical detail here, where that would not happen.

So a majority of their combat experience comes from these low level colonial wars, with some of their equipment and vehicles being built for such an environment.
 
This was brought up before, but since we’re talking about Italy’s equipment again, I believe a majority of their combat experience to test out all this stuff would come from their various and inevitable colonial wars in Libya and Somalia.

During the interwar period, the Italians fought against the Senussi Order in Libya and a few of the rebellious sultans in their holdings in northern Somalia. I’ve read that, in regards to Libya, Mussolini was an advocate of putting down the rebellions there, re-establishing colonial rule. Even with him out of the picture I foresee this kind of thing still happening... unless I’m missing a critical detail here, where that would not happen.

So a majority of their combat experience comes from these low level colonial wars, with some of their equipment and vehicles being built for such an environment.

Yep any italian goverment in the end will put down the rebellion in Libya, socialist included, not doing that is a too much blow to the nation prestige, especially after the GW, plus faction like the arab coalition in the coast will quickly fracture and the italian military will have the need to intervene to restore order. The bright side is that without the massive need of troops ITTL the Senussi and Arab revolt will not be succesfull as OTL on the other hand it will probably a very sore point in the relationships with the Ottoman Empire, especially due to the fact that the Porte will continue to send aid to the Senussi
 
Yep any italian goverment in the end will put down the rebellion in Libya, socialist included, not doing that is a too much blow to the nation prestige, especially after the GW, plus faction like the arab coalition in the coast will quickly fracture and the italian military will have the need to intervene to restore order. The bright side is that without the massive need of troops ITTL the Senussi and Arab revolt will not be succesfull as OTL on the other hand it will probably a very sore point in the relationships with the Ottoman Empire, especially due to the fact that the Porte will continue to send aid to the Senussi

So you’re saying the potential for a proxy war of sorts is possible? I was reluctant to bring up the Ottomans in this regard, but since they are still around... yeah, they would probably be very upset with the Italians for a number of reasons, not least of which is losing Libya and a few of their islands to them.
 
So you’re saying the potential for a proxy war of sorts is possible? I was reluctant to bring up the Ottomans in this regard, but since they are still around... yeah, they would probably be very upset with the Italians for a number of reasons, not least of which is losing Libya and a few of their islands to them.

There is, even if limited, the Ottoman in OTL used German submarine to transport supply to the rebellion and ITTL i don't know if Berlin is ok in supporting the enemy of a supposed allies from the get go as the italian have remained neutral and probably are a good way to bypass the blockade...and when the relations is deteriorated enough the rebellion will be on the way of the dodo.
Said that this can be an incentive for the OE to rebuild his Navy.
 
There is, even if limited, the Ottoman in OTL used German submarine to transport supply to the rebellion and ITTL i don't know if Berlin is ok in supporting the enemy of a supposed allies from the get go as the italian have remained neutral and probably are a good way to bypass the blockade...and when the relations is deteriorated enough the rebellion will be on the way of the dodo.
Said that this can be an incentive for the OE to rebuild his Navy.
Yeah. I don’t know if the Germans would be willing to supply the Senussi Order for the Ottomans either. That’s just asking for a disastrous international incident to happen.

A likely thing, however, is that the Ottomans could receive German equipment in the interwar years. This would also extend to naval assets. Historically the Germans sold their older ships to the Ottomans, such as pre-dreadnoughts, so it’s likely that submarines could be part of that as well, part of a modernization program by the Ottomans to get newer stuff into their arsenal. So, they use former German U-boats, now under Ottoman ownership, to supply the Senussi Order in Libya with guns.

Even with limited support, I foresee this war in Libya lasting a long time. It could potentially involve the British too - the Senussi might cross the border into Egypt, so the British might be compelled to act as an unofficial co-belligerent in fighting the Senussi.
 
Even with limited support, I foresee this war in Libya lasting a long time. It could potentially involve the British too - the Senussi might cross the border into Egypt, so the British might be compelled to act as an unofficial co-belligerent in fighting the Senussi.

Happened in real life as part of their claimed/historical territory was under Egyptian (and so British) nominal control, so enbolded by their success with the italian tried to create a power base there (before they limited themself to supply bases beyond the border where the italian can attack them...where i heard this before?)...a move that had not make the British very happy and so they started to collaborate with the italians more.
In my pieces regardind ITTL Italy in the thread, well i put out that this kind of informal collaboration/alliance exist even there, especially after the success of the same approach against the Dervish in Somalia.

Regarding the Ottoman trying to use Germans second hand ships to supply the rebellion post war, well it's very probable but it's basically a diplomatic crisis in waiting and while you are right that the rebellion will last years, with the italians not so in need to troops elsewhere or with some serious internal problem, it will last less than OTL (again in my pieces it lasted till 27, so 4 years shorter than OTL)
 
Happened in real life as part of their claimed/historical territory was under Egyptian (and so British) nominal control, so enbolded by their success with the italian tried to create a power base there (before they limited themself to supply bases beyond the border where the italian can attack them...where i heard this before?)...a move that had not make the British very happy and so they started to collaborate with the italians more.
In my pieces regardind ITTL Italy in the thread, well i put out that this kind of informal collaboration/alliance exist even there, especially after the success of the same approach against the Dervish in Somalia.

Regarding the Ottoman trying to use Germans second hand ships to supply the rebellion post war, well it's very probable but it's basically a diplomatic crisis in waiting and while you are right that the rebellion will last years, with the italians not so in need to troops elsewhere or with some serious internal problem, it will last less than OTL (again in my pieces it lasted till 27, so 4 years shorter than OTL)

Yeah, it would likely be a shorter conflict. Without the First Great War to drain Italy of men, resources, and time, they would be in a better position to put down the Senussi rebellion in Libya and the rebellious sultans in Somalia. Especially in Somalia, British-Italian cooperation is very likely, just like in OTL during WW1.

German supplied ships and equipment for the Ottomans is inevitable in this timeline I feel. The Ottomans need their support. So yes, the Ottomans would risk a diplomatic crisis with the Italians for continued support of the Senussi in Libya. If this is the case, it will likely be one of Italy’s challenges in the post-Great War world. Maintaining its neutrality while being between several great powers is a tough challenge for them.
 
Italy and the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939)

Italy partecipation at the spanish civil war was extremely complicated; not only there were no full agreement in the goverment on who materially suppport but there were a lot of political repercussion in any possible move and the numbers of interested players grew in number every day.
To better understand the Italian situation, it's better make a little recap of the situation in Spain; in 1936 after years of growing unpopularity of King Alfonso, who whose supported by an unstable coalition of moderate conservative and moderate socialist, due to the mismanagement of the economy and the costly war in the Rif.
After years of strike, protests and rising political violence, in August 1936 a cabal of army officers inspired by the new ideology born in France and Uk and lead first by Emilio Mola and after his death by Francisco Franco launched a coup d'etat against the King to install a new government; this attempted failed due to poor planning and quickly become a civil war as many groups armed themselfs for the fight.

The conflict in Spain become a multisided war between different faction, on one side the Nationalist, that originated by the group attempting the coup and were succesfull in swaying for their cause the great part of the spanish military; on the other side there were the monarchist and the socialist, nominally allied to mantain the (somewhat) democratic government but not at the best term with each other and many time more busy figthing each others than battle the nationalist, especially during the first years, finally there were the Carlist, supporter of the Carlist claymant to the throne of Spain and catholic extremist and till the last year of the war usually fight every other faction.
Quickly side were take in the international stage even with different fervor and intensity, while the French and the British were lavish in their support of the nationalist, even sending military units behind the guise of 'civilian volunteers', Germany and their allies were more restrained in their help, giving to the monarchist/socialist tentative alliance a trickle of supply and old equipment and even limiting the flood of volunteers departing for Spain to fight against the nationalist, this due to a mix of political apathy regarding the external world and a troubled internal political scene, economic situation and the desire to not engage directely the Entente...at least for now.

For the italian goverment the situation was even more complicated as there were support for all the faction, officially the government and the King pledge to give aid to the recognized official goverment of the Kingdom of Spain, a nation that the common neutrality during the war had made a much closer patner than before and even if limited due to the general economical and geopolitical situation, a stable quantity of old equipment (weapons, uniform, aircraft, artillerry and even some tanks) were sent to them; also important was the sheer number of men (and women) that departed Italy to join one of the group that was figthing in Spain as quickly Italian start to battle and kill Italian in a foreign land in the name of religion and ideology.
The main reasoning behind allowing such increasing human flood to reach Spain, was that was better they were far from the nation and busy fighting and dieing than remaing in Italy creating troubles as the heated words in the journals and in the political gathering quickly were substituted by fight between supporter of different faction and so the politicians see sending them away to blow out a 'little of steam' and with the advantage to cut their numbers a little and identify all the potential troublemakers when and if they will return home.

Another problem was the ultrahortodox Carlist faction, hardliner catholics that in the first years of the war fight alone against all the other faction and with the final objective to put the Carlist claymant on the throne of Spain, they were also the group with less international support...except some extremist group in Italy, Poland and a sizeble numbers of Vatican officials that see them as the last true defender of the faith, so it was thanks to them that whatever equipment and diplomatic recognizion arrived even if it was too little to make them nothing more than a wild card (not considering the many embarassement given to the Vatican as the carlist atrocities were well pubblicizated during the time of war), at least till February 1938 when finallly the work of the Vatican secretary of State Cardinal Eugenio Pacelli give his fruits and the Carlist joined the front against the nationalist, in exchange of a postwar marriage between the heir of the spanish throne and the daughter of the Carlist claymant.

Naturally the help given to the monarchist/socialist faction created some tension between Italy and the Entente, especially with France, that was usually kept on the realm of the diplomatic words even if some measure that can only described as 'retaliation' were taken regarding the cultural italian rights in the British and French Empire but every now and then some serious incident happened that put at risk the entire war in Spain to become the lit for a much greateer conflict like when in January 1938 a 'unidentified pirate submarine' attacked and sunk the italian merchant ship Tirreno directed to the monarchist help port of Barcelona and that was transporting supply and war material; the ship was lost with all the crew and immediately unit of Regia Marina were sent in the zone to investigate and to make the route safe. To this both Paris and London asnwered by sending their naval unit, officially to help in keep the zone safe but in reality to counter any support to the monarchist given by the newcomers, soon even some Germans units joined the party and for a couple of days the situation was extremely tense with accusation and counteraccusation between all the side, at least till to resolve diplomatically the affair and preserve the peace all side decided to blame an unknow submarine involved in piracy, a decision that was not taken well in Italy even if the joy for the avoided conflict silenced any serious protest...at least in the beginning. The only real outcome of this crisis was a pledge of non intervention in the war by all the powers involved, even launching a series of patrol to intercept the cargoes full of equipment destinated to the various faction; naturally the Entente had no intention to honoring the agreement and Berlin and Washington fully understood that, still they see that as a success as it give them a certain diplomatic cover in the eyes of their public opinion...in the end the only result of such pledge was to make much more difficult for the monarchist and socialist get new supply and so begun their slow defeat.

The other big diplomatic clash that involved Italy was the so called 'Rome Gold Affair', with this name is called the transfer of the almost 700 tons of gold of the reserve of the Banco de Espana (and many tons of silver donated by the population to finance the war) from Madrid to Rome as a safety measure to protect from the nationalist (or other faction), a decision that even at the time was considerated controversial and borderline illegal but due to the situation in the nation and the pressure of the government and many international patners, still happened with the full authorization of the Finance Minister Julio Negrin.
Departing from Cartaghena in early Novermber 1936, using the italian cargo ship Cortellazzo as transport and with the escort of Battleship Francesco Morosini and the destroyers Boreo, Euro and Nembo and 3 days later they arrived in Rome where the gold was quickly transported in the vault of the Banca d'Italia in the name of the recognized Spanish government for safekeeping and for use it for financing the war against the nationalist (naturally paying a reasonable price to the italian authorities for that). During the coming years, other cargos with precious metals and other object of value reached Italy from Spain for security and a lot of money was transferred from Spanish asset to Italian banks, all this probably originated by the seizure of private assets and the liquidation of pubblic funds and not considering the money brought by the more than 60.000 refugee that found a new home in Italy after the war.
While seriously diminished due to the war expense and the management cost, the leftover money was the main mean to finance the Spanish government in exile so immediately after the end of the conflict, the new government (with a somewhat lucklustre support from his entente allies) demanded the restitution of all the transferred treasure, in all his form; a request that Italy plainly refuse as it considered the nationalist government illegal and for the next 15 years this argument dominated the relations between Rome and Madrid with neither side willing to cede even a diplomatic inch .
 
Leonine City TL-191.jpg


A few notes:
  • The creation of a sovereign papal state would have happened sooner or later, with or without Mussolini. It may not have been on the same date, compared to OTL, but it's still plausible.
  • The inclusion of the red-bordered territory is a combination of walls that were built during the reigns of Leo IV and Urban VIII, which includes several civilian houses, Castel San Angelo and a part of the Tiber River.
  • In real-life, the newly formed Italian government offered the Pope the area within the Walls of Leo IV (Leonine City) without guarantee that His Holiness would be free of Italian control. I could not find documentation as to why Leonine City was not offered in the Lateran Treaty OTL.
  • Why Leonine City and not just Vatican City? It's just a small head-canon of mine I chose in TL-191, since no mention of it is made in the books.
 
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THE INCOMING STORM (1939-41)

The conclusion of the civil war in Spain was not the end of the tension in the continent but merely a glimpse of things to come; once the violence ended the Entente immediately start to analyze all the lesson learned during the conflict while at the same time using the spanish mineral wealth to feed their rearmament program (this last move, seen by the local as extremely exploative due to the imposed economic term, created a certain amount of tension between Spain and the Anglo-French). Later the last original member of the Entente, the Confederate States of America, under the control of Jake Featherson and his party, decided to renew her ties with her former allies adding the growing tension in North America to the already volative situation in Europe. For many that was the final sign that war was by now unavoidable.
On the other side, Germany start to fully realize her military lack of preparation due to the economic depression and the general lack of desire by the population for military adventures or show of force and greatly invested in her own program to modernize her armed forces; same was doing her most powerfull ally the Austro-Hungarian Empire even if obstacolated by the internal political situation.

Italy, being caught between this two alliance, also partecipated at this race so to quickly improve her armed forces for fear to be involved in the fight when (and not if) will happen and be found unpreparated; so increasingly the national budget was used to obtain new weapons and equipment, to modernize the forts at the French and Austrian border and to create national reserve of strategic materials in case world trade become heavily hampered like in the last war. The socialist-led coalition that during the period governed Italy was elected on a program of keeping the peace and increase the quality of life of the mass, but more and more event in the rest of the world, forced the goverment led by Giacomo Matteotti to invest in the sword instead that in the plow, this brought a strange situation where sector of the great industry supported the socialist why group of the left accused them of betrayal.
All that while the usually conservative italian society experienced a period of ‘debauchery and libertine sin’ as many conservative catholic described that period, expatriate artist from France and England like director Alfred Hitchcock and singer/actor Maurice Chevalier among many others brought many new and modern idea and attitude with them, greatly influencing the arts and the way of thinking of the population. On the dark side, all this partying at his core was a coping mechanism for many, due to the widespread belief that soon a new great war will start engulfing everyone on his bloody embrace.

Diplomatically speacking, while the old continent worried about the continued and progressively more aggressive french demand towards Alsace-Loraine or the British conscription law, in Rome deja-vu was the codeword of the day as like 25 years before, both alliance were trying to bring Italy in the war on their side or at least keep her in a favorable state of neutrality. The British Foreign Secretary Lord Halifax and the French foreign minister Paul Baudouin offered to the italians the full extension of their claim towards Austria-Hungary and added the promise of colonial gain and zone of influence in Turkey if in the case of a new war between the Central Power and the Entente she join the latter launching an attack towards A-H and helping the Royal Navy and Marine Nationale in the Mediterranean . The fact that two authoritarian reactionary regime attempted seriusly an alliance with a socialist goverment, not only point at the seriousness of the future intention of such regime but also their need to quickly fill the military gap in term of resources between them and German alliance and the general strategic importance of Italy. While the italian goverment not fully refused the proposal, it was clear that was also not really interested in a war of aggression, at least for now and the two dignitary returned home with a polite but firm refusal but also an assurance that Italy will remain neutral if not attacked. The talking between the Entente delegation and the italian goverment, while formal and surely not warm, were still far from hostile, the same thing cannot be said of the negotiation with the italian former allies.
The German and Hapsburg ambassador contacted Galeazzo Ciano (1)the italian foreign minister, proposing an official return of Italy in the alliance and in case of war a total support of the italian claim towards France and naturally a share of the Anglo-French colonial empire, plus some economic incentive.
While the envoys received the same answer of the previous delegation, the tone was totally different as the negotioation with the Entente were coldish, formal but in general correct while in the one involving the CP the discussion turning quickly towards the agreement reached more than 20 years ago and how was betrayed even with all the assurances given at the highest level of both Empires. If the tone and words of the italian minister was not among the best to use in any official negotiations between Great powers neither was the one used by the Austrian ambassador (a prominent member of the anti-italian faction of the Hapsburg) shouting that if there was a betrayal it has been done by the italians due to their greed and that a geographical expression needed a lot of caution in dealing in the affair of giants. Apparently the German ambassador cut the talking, excusing himself and forcefully bring with him his Austrian counterpart before more damage was done and in the following days Wien recalled his ambassador due to health reason leaving any further negotiation to the sole german diplomat until a new ambassador was designed but even if the overall tone of the discussion were now more civil, the answer was the same, at the eve of the new Great War, Italy again will stay out of the fight...at least for now

(1) yeah, his father was a very influential member of the nationalist and a supporter of D’Annuzio and Mussolini in OTL as a true believer; the son is much more opportunistic and usually particularly good in catching where the wind is blowing and kissing butt.
 
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