This very nearly did happen IOTL. In October 1422, Charles the Dauphin, Charles VI (of Mad King fame)'s disinherited son, was holding court at La Rochelle when the floor of the room he was staying in collapsed under him. He fell from an upper to a lower story, and the brush with disaster even killed some members of his entourage, including Pierre de Bourbon, lord of Preaulx. Historically, Charles managed to escape with only some bruises, and would later write a letter reminiscing about this traumatizing event several years after the fact. Here, the POD is very simple: Charles is not so lucky and dies immediately in this accident, of a snapped neck or broken back or whichever option seems most viable.
Why is this important? Because as the last living son of Charles VI, the Dauphin was the key figurehead holding together the Armagnac party against the Plantagenets and their Burgundian allies, which together controlled much of northern France. The next-in-line according to Armagnac reckoning, Charles of Orleans, was a prisoner in England after being captured at the Battle of Agincourt in 1415, and would not be released any time soon, if at all. Making matters worse, the next-in-line after him, John of Angouleme, was also in English custody. To complete the catastrophe, Charles the Dauphin had not married yet, as his marriage to Marie of Anjou was slated for December 1422, so the mainline Valois would die with him.
The Armagnacs are essentially decapitated at this point. The sons of Louis II of Anjou and Yolande of Aragon would probably come to the fore to take charge of France, though they appeared to be much more interested in pursuing their claim on Naples IOTL. On the other hand, that was when they were several degrees removed from the throne, barriers which are removed in this scenario as both their king and his heir are locked away in England. Nor do I see a woman as formidable as Yolande yielding her power and influence so easily, even if she won't be the Queen Mother ITTL. Whatever the case, there won't be a certain peasant girl coming forth to restore the Dauphin since the Dauphin is long dead and gone by 1429.
But England is not in the best spot either. Henry VI is a minor and would grow up to be...rather incapable. John of Bedford won't live forever, even if the defeats at Orleans and Patay would be avoided. The manpower and economic differential between France and England was just too strong to be overcome by pure military force. Philip the Good could even decide to go for the crown of France if the Anjous are brought low in their attempts to push out the English, or decide to pursue their ambitions elsewhere instead. However, its undeniable that the death of Charles VII and the subsequent absence of Joan of Arc would help the Plantagenet position in the short-medium term, which in turn would put less stress on the Anglo-Burgundian alliance.
So, what does everyone think? 1422 had already seen two kings fall before Charles - Henry V of England, and Charles VI of France. What happens if a third king joins that list?
Why is this important? Because as the last living son of Charles VI, the Dauphin was the key figurehead holding together the Armagnac party against the Plantagenets and their Burgundian allies, which together controlled much of northern France. The next-in-line according to Armagnac reckoning, Charles of Orleans, was a prisoner in England after being captured at the Battle of Agincourt in 1415, and would not be released any time soon, if at all. Making matters worse, the next-in-line after him, John of Angouleme, was also in English custody. To complete the catastrophe, Charles the Dauphin had not married yet, as his marriage to Marie of Anjou was slated for December 1422, so the mainline Valois would die with him.
The Armagnacs are essentially decapitated at this point. The sons of Louis II of Anjou and Yolande of Aragon would probably come to the fore to take charge of France, though they appeared to be much more interested in pursuing their claim on Naples IOTL. On the other hand, that was when they were several degrees removed from the throne, barriers which are removed in this scenario as both their king and his heir are locked away in England. Nor do I see a woman as formidable as Yolande yielding her power and influence so easily, even if she won't be the Queen Mother ITTL. Whatever the case, there won't be a certain peasant girl coming forth to restore the Dauphin since the Dauphin is long dead and gone by 1429.
But England is not in the best spot either. Henry VI is a minor and would grow up to be...rather incapable. John of Bedford won't live forever, even if the defeats at Orleans and Patay would be avoided. The manpower and economic differential between France and England was just too strong to be overcome by pure military force. Philip the Good could even decide to go for the crown of France if the Anjous are brought low in their attempts to push out the English, or decide to pursue their ambitions elsewhere instead. However, its undeniable that the death of Charles VII and the subsequent absence of Joan of Arc would help the Plantagenet position in the short-medium term, which in turn would put less stress on the Anglo-Burgundian alliance.
So, what does everyone think? 1422 had already seen two kings fall before Charles - Henry V of England, and Charles VI of France. What happens if a third king joins that list?
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