Wrapped in Flames: The Great American War and Beyond

Given the title for a moment I thought based of the title Lee would force march his part of the army to new York In a hail Mary. But things aren't that desperate yet.

Well the Union is a little more desperate at the moment. However, Lee was very badly mauled at Savage's Factory and Station. His army was split up, and Whiting's Corps is in disarray while Magruders needs a new commander. The army needs some serious rest and refitting, thankfully he'll get it. But the Army of the Potomac is also in desperate need of that as well.

hints that negotiations will at least start .

Well we shall see if the British and Americans can come to an agreement.

A peerage and the highest rank but retired at 1903 makes me think wolsely will get his chance to shine in a second relatively big war around 1880 to 1890 althrough Hancock promoting himself in 1879 puts a dent of sorts in that theory.
Great chapter once again!

Historically he did retire in 1900. However, he still has a long way to go in his career. There's going to be a lot he does in the future of TTL.

The question thus becomes, has the time when accepting a separate peace was in Britain's interest already passed or not? The dealings between the British Empire and the confederacy suggest that time is at least a few months past. However, it's unlikely Britain will gain much from continuing the war. Thus, the question becomes, whether the PM believes that breaking a promise to a dismal slaver state is harmful enough to Britain's image that it's better to continue spending men's lives and materiel in this war.

Well it is important to note that the British have not signed any sort of formal alliance with the Confederacy. They're co belligerents, not formal allies. Which Lincoln has always tried to ensure. There's going to be some interesting ramifications for sure.
 
As a born and bred Murican, I only know how we saved the world throughout the 20th. Century. So some speculation here - do Canadians feel like they've always lived in America's (you know, the real one that stretches from sea to shining sea) shadow? If at all true, that won't happen now. They put a flea in our ear twice in the same century.
 
As a born and bred Murican, I only know how we saved the world throughout the 20th. Century. So some speculation here - do Canadians feel like they've always lived in America's (you know, the real one that stretches from sea to shining sea) shadow? If at all true, that won't happen now. They put a flea in our ear twice in the same century.
I wouldn't be so sure about that in the long run. A revanchist US could conquer large swaths of Canadian land and transform the unborn nation into a born rump-state, specially if we are talking about a second-round in the 20th century.
 
As a born and bred Murican, I only know how we saved the world throughout the 20th. Century. So some speculation here - do Canadians feel like they've always lived in America's (you know, the real one that stretches from sea to shining sea) shadow? If at all true, that won't happen now. They put a flea in our ear twice in the same century.

Well, the US has always been something of a goliath squatting on Canada's doorstep. As late as 1911 Wilfred Laurier lost an election because he sought closer ties with the US through a free trade agreement which the Conservative Party beat him about head with and ended his 15 year premiership*. There's always a nascent fear that the US wants to swallow up Canada, and ever since 1775, it's been an issue that the people living north of the border are perfectly happy with the status quo and so the many attempts to shift that by force (and ITTL three times now) were not greatly appreciated. And until arguably the 1970s this country still felt it had a majority British heritage and identity. That's going to be a closer source here regardless of the wars outcome.

The post-war relationship will be...interesting to say the least.

*It also didn't help that some supporters of the free trade agreement in the US Senate (I'm looking at you Champ Clark) openly proclaimed it as an eventual step to annexation. That certainly soured many Canadians and general reinforced the view that the US still had covetous eyes on Canada. There were also questions about naval spending that Laurier couldn't quite handle as well. In WiF, the issue of a Canadian navy will be something examined much, much earlier.
 
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Postwar relations between Britain and America depends if London decides to make a separate peace. If the British settle, the American public will probably turn the other cheek since the US did start the war in the first place and they have a more important enemy in the south. If Britain backs the Confederacy, the US will never forgive them. The consequences of British support for the Confederacy would include the US losing 1/3 of its territory, its control over the mouth of the Mississippi River, the continuation of slavery in the South, and the loss of revenue from southern crops, an outcome guaranteed to anger almost every Northern voter in some way.
 
If Britain backs the Confederacy, the US will never forgive them. The consequences of British support for the Confederacy would include the US losing 1/3 of its territory, its control over the mouth of the Mississippi River, the continuation of slavery in the South, and the loss of revenue from southern crops, an outcome guaranteed to anger almost every Northern voter in some way.
This whole 'the US will never forgive the British' thing seems rather unlikely, in my mind. The PRC forgave the Americans for backing the Kuomintang during the Chinese Civil War. Franco forgave Mexico, France and the Soviet Union for backing the Republicans during the Spanish Civil War. The Soviet Union forgave Japan, the US, UK and Czechoslovakia for backing the Whites during the Russian Civil War. The Irish forgave the British for partition. South Korea forgave the US and Soviet Union for partitioning Korea. Mexico forgave the US for taking over 50% of their territory. Columbia forgave the US for helping Panama to secede. Latin America as a whole forgave the US for the Banana Wars.

Sure, there was lingering enmity in some of these cases, but it didn't stop them from working with each other when necessary. Perpetual hostility to your neighbours is usually just too expensive for nations to afford.
 
Postwar relations between Britain and America depends if London decides to make a separate peace. If the British settle, the American public will probably turn the other cheek since the US did start the war in the first place and they have a more important enemy in the south. If Britain backs the Confederacy, the US will never forgive them. The consequences of British support for the Confederacy would include the US losing 1/3 of its territory, its control over the mouth of the Mississippi River, the continuation of slavery in the South, and the loss of revenue from southern crops, an outcome guaranteed to anger almost every Northern voter in some way.

Well, Lincoln is a canny actor and he knows that he has to do everything to keep the Confederacy and CSA from finding common cause. The joint Anglo-Confederate attack on Washington is anxiety inducing, not only as close as it came to succeeding, but that after a year of the two sides treating it as a separate war, the British are willing to openly coordinate with the CSA. His goal in seeking negotiations with Britain is to give them a deal that lets him get on with the original war against the secesh.

If it works, great! If it doesn't or Britain perceives it as weakness...well there's the rub.

I think though, that any situation that sees the war end before the 1864 election would be the one you describe. If the Anglo-Confederate attack on Washington had succeeded, then Britain would truly be forcing the Union to the table, and likely ensuring Confederate independence. The 1864 election however, no matter the outcome of the potential peace talks, is going to be (like OTL) not just a referendum on Lincoln, but the war as well. That makes an enormous psychological difference.

This whole 'the US will never forgive the British' thing seems rather unlikely, in my mind. The PRC forgave the Americans for backing the Kuomintang during the Chinese Civil War. Franco forgave Mexico, France and the Soviet Union for backing the Republicans during the Spanish Civil War. The Soviet Union forgave Japan, the US, UK and Czechoslovakia for backing the Whites during the Russian Civil War. The Irish forgave the British for partition. South Korea forgave the US and Soviet Union for partitioning Korea. Mexico forgave the US for taking over 50% of their territory. Columbia forgave the US for helping Panama to secede. Latin America as a whole forgave the US for the Banana Wars.

Sure, there was lingering enmity in some of these cases, but it didn't stop them from working with each other when necessary. Perpetual hostility to your neighbours is usually just too expensive for nations to afford.

I think it's been pointed out well in this thread that nations don't hold eternal grudges "just because" and often times it comes with other factors. Things got back to normal within a generation of both the Revolutionary War and the War of 1812 (it's important to recall that many people who fought in that war were young or even fought in the Revolutionary War) and a massive militarized border between the US and British North America wasn't the norm. There's certainly scenarios where eternal hatred of Britain is a thing, and TL-191 does a good one, but I'm certainly not just writing another TL-191!

There's definitely going to be lots and lots of bad blood over the Great American War/North American War/War of 1862/whatever the various sides will call it* whenever it ends. Canadians have now been invaded three times in less than a century and Britain has had to look over its shoulder from Europe at what they perceive as a belligerent American republic. Meanwhile, the United States has, from it's perspective, fought against British interference on three occasions! There will be many people who view Britain as an enemy regardless of the outcome, but others who view it as a "don't poke the bear" lesson from history.

*The war has many names to different people. The South has its own name which is very similar to a certain OTL name that is used.
 
I think this is going to backfire for Lincoln, whatever peace he's offering won't be enough to pull the British out of the war and any concessions the British demand will be too much for the country to stomach. So he won't be able to dial the war back enough to actually put the screws to the Confederacy in a big way.

And there's always the risk of some peace leading to calls for more peace.
 
1) The immediate release of the Confederate commissioners
2) The dismissal of both Captain Wilkes and Captain McInstry from naval service
3) The issuing of a formal and public apology on the part of the United States government for the actions undertaken by members of its Navy
4) The United States would pay for the damages to HMS Terror and would provide financial restitution for the damages done aboard RMS Trent. The amount to be paid would be determined solely by Her Majesties Government
These were the original British demands to avoid war. Both sides are way beyond this now so there should be room to negotiate what would appear to the public (on both sides) as Not A Loss if not an outright win: The US gets Portland back but perhaps cede enough Maine territory to protect the Grand Trunk Railway. Britain also returns it's West Coast conquests but gets the border it wants for British Columbia. The USA returns south of the Canadian border and the Richelieu River corridor is not to be militarized by either side. What guarantees would be acceptable to Canada for a future peaceful coexistence - no naval yards on the Great Lakes? Repudiation of ever trying to take Canadian territory in the future? Maybe England gets sole rights to exploit the Sandwich Islands? Or maybe England sells their West Coast to the USA at a premium?
 
I think this is going to backfire for Lincoln, whatever peace he's offering won't be enough to pull the British out of the war and any concessions the British demand will be too much for the country to stomach. So he won't be able to dial the war back enough to actually put the screws to the Confederacy in a big way.

And there's always the risk of some peace leading to calls for more peace.
I couldn't agree more. The odds of Lincoln's plan actually working are very small imo. In any case, the CSA is quite a bit stronger than they were in OTL and can easily outlast the Union until the '64 elections if need be.
 
These were the original British demands to avoid war. Both sides are way beyond this now so there should be room to negotiate what would appear to the public (on both sides) as Not A Loss if not an outright win: The US gets Portland back but perhaps cede enough Maine territory to protect the Grand Trunk Railway. Britain also returns it's West Coast conquests but gets the border it wants for British Columbia. The USA returns south of the Canadian border and the Richelieu River corridor is not to be militarized by either side. What guarantees would be acceptable to Canada for a future peaceful coexistence - no naval yards on the Great Lakes? Repudiation of ever trying to take Canadian territory in the future? Maybe England gets sole rights to exploit the Sandwich Islands? Or maybe England sells their West Coast to the USA at a premium?
I honestly don’t see the US accepting any treaty that includes ceding land at this juncture. They’re literally fighting a war to keep the South, ceding territory to the British is just asking for trouble on the home front. A demilitarized border is much more plausible, as is signing away Hawaii to the British (although I highly doubt that will stop filibusters down the line unless Britain outright annexes the island).
 
I honestly don’t see the US accepting any treaty that includes ceding land at this juncture. They’re literally fighting a war to keep the South, ceding territory to the British is just asking for trouble on the home front. A demilitarized border is much more plausible, as is signing away Hawaii to the British (although I highly doubt that will stop filibusters down the line unless Britain outright annexes the island).
That's the problem, the British will be wanting territory. Nothing major, but territory nonetheless. Britain's way past the point of letting bygones be bygones. I think I it's going to anger Britain when everything stalls and ends up driving her into the arms of the the idea of formal Confederate recognition.
 
That's the problem, the British will be wanting territory. Nothing major, but territory nonetheless. Britain's way past the point of letting bygones be bygones. I think I it's going to anger Britain when everything stalls and ends up driving her into the arms of the the idea of formal Confederate recognition.
I don't believe this is going to be the case. Washington will rather cede a piece of Washington Territory in the West then let Richmond get away with the secession.
 
I don't believe this is going to be the case. Washington will rather ceder a piece of Washington Territory in the West then let Richmond get away with the secession.
That's not going to be enough. Britain is going to make demands in Maine and Minnesota for sure, and maybe even the Red River basin and northern New York on top of Washington State. When America inevitably refuses Britain is going to feel slighted.
 
That's not going to be enough.
I disagree. Britain was balls deep in the US in 1812, and they still didn't get that much territorial concessions, in fact, they didn't get any at all. Britain is going to have to bleed the US dry if they want to have that much American land as you said in your example, and I doubt there's enough political will to keep this war going for as long, specially if the Americans suck up their pride and give away the Washington Territory, which is a very big piece of land.
 
That's not going to be enough. Britain is going to make demands in Maine and Minnesota for sure, and maybe even the Red River basin and northern New York on top of Washington State. When America inevitably refuses Britain is going to feel slighted.
What the British demand and what they'll ultimately be satisfied with are different. :)
 
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