I'm not convinced the Iraqi revolt will actually happen TTL. The conditions that led to it are very different. OTL Greece had fallen, Crete had Fallen, Rommel had run roughshod over the British in North Africa and Bismarck had shut down the Atlantic convoys taking most of the RN to deal with. Britain looked like it was a spent force so the rebels had a chance of success with Axis support. TTL only Greece falling and the Bismarck's death ride are likely so the rebels may well take a wait and see attitude until after the expected offensives in the Western Desert play out.
Sir John Valentine Carden survives.
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If nothing else they can suck alot of Nazi's into trying to break through and even if they can't hold the mainland they can make the German's pay for every inch. Also those German's are needed elsewhere in very short order, so will Hitler call a halt to Greece to get them back for Barbarossa? If he doesn't will having thousands of troops less make any difference to the Ostfront in 1941?
The roughly 6-8 divisions that continued the campaign after the initial offensives can be spared without affecting Barbarossa, after all the two panzer divisions included were in bad enough shape that they did not participate in Barbarossa anyway. The interesting question is if 8 divisions suffice against prolonged allied resistance. If the Greeks had also managed to pull back from Albania in a timely fashion then maybe... but one has to remember that even with most of the German army out of the Balkans there's also 28 Italian divisions in Albania as well as the Bulgarians to take into account.
Italian's already lost against the Greek's so they're probably a secondary concern, the others are a problem though
Yeah, the big changes won't be on the Axis side, but the Allied one. The longer the German advance can be delayed, the more time the British and Greeks have to evacuate. Not sure how many more they can get out, but every little bit helps. Retaining Crete also helps in that regard. There's also likely to be fewer ships sunk than OTL, which will be another benefit.
I won't comment on Rhodes, as I don't know when it will be taken.
I do wonder though, if they can get a few thousand extra troops (or maybe tens of thousands), along with some tanks, could they be sent to Burma?
I won't comment on Rhodes, as I don't know when it will be taken.
I do wonder though, if they can get a few thousand extra troops (or maybe tens of thousands), along with some tanks, could they be sent to Burma?
In April 1941 they are not a secondary concern. They have 526,000 men in Albania. And the best case scenario if the whole Greek army retreated in one piece is that the Greek army facing them had been reduced by a third. The worse case scenario is the the German advance will manage to cup of most of the Greek army, followed by its collapse at which point over half a million Italian troops become available for operations further south.
Thanks for going ahead with it though, as it's generating some interesting discussions, and comments from members of the board about the original timeline one.
So, Rommel is indeed in control of the Afrika Korps. Methinks his reputation in this timeline will be less 'genius, only good German' and more 'reckless blowhard who was not paying enough attention to see the warcrimes committed by his associates'.
Any chance of the British and Hellenic forces holding onto parts of Greece long enough that Barbarossa is go and Germany cannot send any more resources down south? Would be interesting to see a timeline where the 'soft underbelly' theory has the impetus of sending men to a still extant theatre.
Any chance of the British and Hellenic forces holding onto parts of Greece long enough that Barbarossa is go and Germany cannot send any more resources down south? Would be interesting to see a timeline where the 'soft underbelly' theory has the impetus of sending men to a still extant theatre.
Nay, nay and thrice nay. Do not pander to Churchill's fantasies. The Balkans are a bloody awful place to launch an offensive aimed at Germany from. Too many mountains, not enough decent roads and very few decent ports to support an army with.
You have to remember that the final collapse in WWI started in the Balkans.
Because the Austro-Hungarians were exhausted, starving and on the brink of revolution.
So were the Prussians and or rather more pertinently the civilian inhabitants of their German Empire
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OTL the "Golden Square" acted internally to Iraq on 1 April 1941... which is before many of the events you mention
e.g. German attack on Greece not till 6 April
In fact, the first British reinforcements from India had landed at Basra by 18 April before any actual movements vs Britain in Iraq
and these first military movements were rather tentative ... threatening rather than forceful attacks.
IIRC the Iraqis still began their
though the British columns from across the desert and up the Euphrates took a few more weeks to arrive and totally crush the Revolt
Bismarck did not sail till 23 May, though that is a month later than planned,
so unless there was a greater degree of coordination with the Fascists than I believe,
his actions and fate were not a factor either way for the Iraqis who were fully committed before he left.
IMHO the OTL chronology suggests the Iraqis acted purely based on their own ambition, at most encouraged by Rommel's successes at El Algeilah
and therefore will probably still begin acting on a similar schedule ... and still be defeated iTTL in a similar fashion
(since Axis aid iTTL will be even sparser than the negligible help possible iOTL)
Caveat: If Rommel is initially repulsed during March/early April iTTL
I can see the active fighting at Habbaniya being delayed until the issue in Greece is clearly resolved in the favour of the Axis
which may mean there are less active operations in Iraq if the Brtish can mobilise reinforcements as they did OTL
and thereby force the Square to flee without fighting
And given the active cooperation of the Vichy in Syria and Lebanon by providing bases for the Axis bombers sent to support the Siege
I cannot see the British permitting them to remain in power iTTL any more than they did iOTL
If so ... and if Crete holds and if Rommel is stopped further west ...then the Middle East Theater is different by June 1941
which may set butterflies flying further east
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Still happened. You simply cannot discard it. It would have affected Churchill's thinking...
Synthetic fuel production was around 9 million barrels a year , Imports from Romania around 13 million in 1941. Pre war usage was around 45 million barrels a year. Even with domestic production ( initially 4 million barrels but expansion/conquest increased it to 12 by 44 ) you can see the figures never added up ( reserves started at 15million with another 5 million captured by France's fall in 1940 )
One aspect the Germans didn't realise at the time was the Churchill's hill-climbing capability. That was perhaps its one saving grace.
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