I think the OP might be a bit over it all. Wouldn’t blame him. Next we’ll be talking about post-war space programs and reality TV shows in this timeline.
Sir John Valentine Carden survives.
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Interesting question, with Britain doing better this time around, will they consider keeping the Soviets supplied as not quite so critical? Maybe instead of OTL levels of support, they provide them enough to keep the Germans fully occupied, but not quite so much as to allow them to sweep through Europe as they did OTL?
Phillips certainly did screw up, but remember that everyone in WW2 naval command was an armchair admiral who hadn't seen action since WW1. None of the great powers had been engaged in naval conflict since 1918.
It was the 'Landing at Kuantan' message received at midnight on the 9/10 Dec that doomed Force Z
Phillips whatever his faults had already pushed his luck and finding himself within recce aircraft range had 'reluctantly' decided to break off the attempted interception of the Landing forces and return to Singapore.
However at Midnight he received word that another landing was taking place at Kuantan (half way between Kota Bharu and Singapore) and at 0050 hours turned towards Kuantan.
Such a landing would have the potential to seriously unhinge the already imperilled defences of the land forces in Malaya and so he was obliged to act and move to intercept
We know now that no such landings were taking place, the reports that of over imaginative green troops, but given the landings already taken place at Kota Bharu and at other south east coast Thai ports on the 8th, it would not be considered unfeasible that the Japanese might be conducting subsequent landings further south.
You could at this point replace Phillips with any RN officer on the planet (and pretty much any Officer of any major Navy for that matter) and the result would likely be the same, Force Z moves to intercept this new landing in direct support of a ground campaign.
Can you imagine our opinion had Phillips not attempted an intercept and there had been a landing at Kuantan?
I think he acted reasonably given his brief from London, lack of intelligence regarding Japanese aircraft capabilities (coloured by Western racist attitudes of the day regarding the Japanese air forces) - which did not then exist, failed local intel resulting in the Kuantan invasion scare which kept his force in the area for longer, and weak local RAF/RAAF/RNZAF forces stretched supporting the Army virtually incapable of supporting Force Z.
Note that Force Z dispatched its own recce of Kuantan using an Amphibious plane and one of the first IJN Airgroup's that found Force Z and attacked it had spotted the Amphib travelling to Kuantan and simply traced its course 180 back to the ships.
So no Kuantan scare and Force Z is likely to be much further south - not spotted by I-65 at 0210 hours (who reported their position) and possibly beyond the effective radius of action by the IJN twin engine bombers and far less likely to be found, attacked and sunk.
A small number of fighters from either a carrier or the RAF over head likely also saves the fleet as the IJN air groups cannot form up and attack as they please with fighters, even bad fighters making attacks on them.
I know I check the thread daily too.... :-(
A few pages back Allan had mentioned he was feeling under the weather after getting his vaccination, so it may have just knocked him on his fanny.
With air reconnaissance to disprove the report of a Japanese landing at Kuantan, Phillips would have been back on course for Singapore. So might not have been detected or within reach of the Japanese aircraft.
I hope he is well
My first jab had me feeling like crap for the best part of a week - everyone else I know who had it was absolutely fine
While we wait and hope, perhaps we can move from discussion of the East Asian butterflies to discussions about the more current Greek Campaign. It is not a part of WW2 I have studied intensely but I have been looking into it since it looks like it will be covered in this TL.
The first likely butterfly I can see flapping is the deployment to the Monastir gap. A well balanced and prepared force in the Klidi pass area could cause the Germans some trouble. The more of a bloody nose that the Germans get moving south, the longer it takes and the more of the BEF that falls back in good order, the better.
Once the Germans are through the pass, an alternate Battle of Vevi could see 9th Panzer mauled rather than the British. This could allow the BEF to hold that position longer than OTL, delaying the eventual likely encirclement and surrender of Greek forces on the Albanian border. It also allows the Olympus line, if it is used ITTL, more time to be established. Then the Germans can be bloodied again at Servia pass.
The British would still have to retreat from this line to avoid getting outflanked by the German forces in Epirus but Armoured counterattacks could delay the fall of Larissa long enough for the British supplies there to be removed or destroyed and the airfield be put out of commission. This could also allow for the Thermopylae line to be better built up. Along with the greater flexibility of a surviving armoured force, this could allow the BEF to hold that line for longer without pulling back, while also possibly to disrupt the flanking attack from the Motorcycle troops across Euboea. That would further drain German manpower for the battles ahead, while allowing more troops, supplies and material to be evacuated from Athens. If the BEF tanks can maul 5th Panzer at Thebes there is another bonus, though it won't make much more difference in Greece.
More troops and material out of Athens means less need to abandon supplies and take only men out of the small ports on the Peloponnesus and likely less troops captured overall. If the Corinth Isthmus can be held against the German paratroopers, then that gains still more time, at least until the Germans that crossed at Patras come from the west, or reinforcements arrive from Athens. But ideally as many troops with as much equipment as possible would have been pulled out from Athens, allowing Crete to be better garrisoned.
In regards to Crete it would help if the orders to the many Generals in command of the island Garrison (5 in 6 months IIRC) were all given clear instructions to prepare to defend the island if it becomes necessary. The first one was and he put some good effort into building defenses but the others were generally unclear if they were supposed to prepare to defend Crete as a whole or just the British Bases there.
The first likely butterfly I can see flapping is the deployment to the Monastir gap. A well balanced and prepared force in the Klidi pass area could cause the Germans some trouble. The more of a bloody nose that the Germans get moving south, the longer it takes and the more of the BEF that falls back in good order, the better.
Once the Germans are through the pass, an alternate Battle of Vevi could see 9th Panzer mauled rather than the British. This could allow the BEF to hold that position longer than OTL, delaying the eventual likely encirclement and surrender of Greek forces on the Albanian border. It also allows the Olympus line, if it is used ITTL, more time to be established. Then the Germans can be bloodied again at Servia pass.
The British would still have to retreat from this line to avoid getting outflanked by the German forces in Epirus but Armoured counterattacks could delay the fall of Larissa long enough for the British supplies there to be removed or destroyed and the airfield be put out of commission. This could also allow for the Thermopylae line to be better built up. Along with the greater flexibility of a surviving armoured force, this could allow the BEF to hold that line for longer without pulling back, while also possibly to disrupt the flanking attack from the Motorcycle troops across Euboea. That would further drain German manpower for the battles ahead, while allowing more troops, supplies and material to be evacuated from Athens. If the BEF tanks can maul 5th Panzer at Thebes there is another bonus, though it won't make much more difference in Greece.
More troops and material out of Athens means less need to abandon supplies and take only men out of the small ports on the Peloponnesus and likely less troops captured overall. If the Corinth Isthmus can be held against the German paratroopers, then that gains still more time, at least until the Germans that crossed at Patras come from the west, or reinforcements arrive from Athens. But ideally as many troops with as much equipment as possible would have been pulled out from Athens, allowing Crete to be better garrisoned.
In regards to Crete it would help if the orders to the many Generals in command of the island Garrison (5 in 6 months IIRC) were all given clear instructions to prepare to defend the island if it becomes necessary. The first one was and he put some good effort into building defenses but the others were generally unclear if they were supposed to prepare to defend Crete as a whole or just the British Bases there.
The Olympus line given its terrain is pretty defensible if held by any significant force. The likely lines of advance can be roughly seen in the map below. Tempi valley to the east is pretty much impassable. Which means either Servia to Sarantaporo and then Elasson or Petra pass to Elasson. Servia to Sarantaporo was the main road in the era and goes again over very bad terrain.
IMO the questions are two.
1. How do you convince Papagos to pull back in time. The obvious way is not to have the Yugoslav coup...
2. Assuming everything else stays unchanged can the German advance be delayed long enough for the Greek army in Albania to pull back, particularly the West Macedonia Army detachment, with its 5 veteran divisions which is also the closest to taking up positions on the Olympus line. If you can delay the German advance through the Monastir gap to about April 20...
That would be the best option for Greece. And arguably Yugoslavia if they handle it right. But I don't think the TL established so far has any real provision for affecting Yugoslav politics. So the Coup probably remains. And IIUC Papagos replaced almost the entire leadership of the Greek forces in Albania rather than pull back before the German attack. I am not totally sure he would pull back even if it is obvious that the Yugoslavs are against them.
You know the condition of the Greek Army at the time much better than I do. But the limited amount I have read has caused me to basically assume the loss of the bulk of the Greek Army. Even with the collapse IOTL the order to withdraw was only given on 12 April, and it seems the consensus at that point was that it was too late. The Army was exhausted and demoralized and apparently some units had started to disintegrate by 16 April. I am not sure the British holding near Klidi would stop all that.
I am also not sure the BEF ITTl would even try to hold that long. It seems more likely to me that they would do what damage they could to the Germans with well organized rearguard actions while withdrawing further south. Though such a policy does make the Aliakmon line somewhat superfluous, it does allow the British to avoid what they would see as another Norway campaign.
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My opinion of what a better and larger British Tank Brigade would do in TTLs Greek Campaign is equally suffer near 100% losses and not somehow turn around the battle but in the process put up a better show by retaining better reliability and therefore more tanks being available for any rear-guard actions allowing more Commonwealth and Greek troops and possibly equipment to ultimately be evacuated and by extension making the process more 'expensive' and drawn out for the Axis forces involved.
I consider the loss of 150 Valiant tanks well worth the cost if the above is the outcome given that they can be replaced far more easily than their crews and the 1000s of extra Commonwealth and Greek troops saved ITTL over OTL as a result.
I consider the loss of 150 Valiant tanks well worth the cost if the above is the outcome given that they can be replaced far more easily than their crews and the 1000s of extra Commonwealth and Greek troops saved ITTL over OTL as a result.
Oh fair enough - so we have a slightly better A13 and 50% more of them (3 Regiments? or Battalions for those of you who are Hard of British Commonwealth) ?
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