East first! Europe after a German / CP victory in 1916

Suppose the Central Powers are victorious in 1916 because Germany chooses an "east first" strategy, what will Europe look like afterwards? I have worked out a timeline for this and incorporated it into maps. I am curious about your opinion!

Prelude

1914

28 June Murder of Franz Ferdinand (OTL)
23 July Austria-Hungary issues an ultimatum to Serbia (OTL)
25 July Mobilization Austria-Hungary (OTL)
25 July Partial mobilization Russia (OTL)
28 July Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia (OTL)
30 July Total mobilization Russia (OTL)
1 August Mobilization Germany and declaration of war on Russia (OTL)
1 August Mobilization France (OTL)
1 August Germany and the Ottoman Empire sign defensive treaty (OTL)
2 August Britain requisitioned two battleships destined for the Ottoman Navy (OTL)
4 August German army units enter Russian Poland from Silesia (ATL)
4 August The ships Goeben and Breslau are ordered to sail to Constantinople (OTL)
5 August France issues an ultimatum to Germany to withdraw from Russia (ATL)
6 August France declares war on Germany and activates Plan XVII (ATL)
6 August Austria-Hungary declares war on Russia (OTL)
7 August Germany occupies Luxembourg to prevent a French attack via Luxembourg (ATL)
7 August Britain declares itself neutral under the following conditions (ATL):
  1. Belgium's neutrality is respected.
  2. The Channel and southern North Sea form a “Neutral Zone”, prohibited for (German) naval vessels.
  3. No (German) threat to British merchant ships and trade routes.
29 October Black Sea Raid by Goeben and Breslau (OTL)
2 November Russia declares war on the Ottoman Empire (OTL)
5 November France declares war on the Ottoman Empire (OTL)

Western front
Plan XVII is disastrous for France, just like in OTL. On 7 August, the French invade Alsace towards Mülhausen. A larger offensive against Lorraine will follow on 14 August. Both offensives are a fiasco and the French are beaten back with great losses. At the beginning of September, Germany conquer the mining area around Longwy and Briey. After this, the front stabilizes and trench warfare ensues. New French attacks in October were of no avail and during 1915 the Western Front remained quiet. However, British loans keep the French war industry going. It was not until 1916 that France dared to take on a new offensive, in which hundreds of thousands were killed. The war has become very unpopular in France and protests are breaking out. When Russia asks for an armistice on 20 September 1916, France follows a day later.

Eastern front, see “WW1 Aufmarsch II Ost in maps
German army units advance from Silesia towards the Vistula River from 4 August. The German main force is concentrated in East Prussia. On 15 August, the Russians invade East Prussia and are crushed at Tannenberg. In Galicia, the Russians are initially successful. The Austro-Hungarian army is driven back to behind the San. The Germans come to the aid of the Austrians and in a large-scale counter-offensive the Russians are expelled from the Polish salient in October. Another successful offensive by Germany and Austria-Hungary followed in 1915. This involves the encirclement of Russian armies, which are facing serious shortages. As a result, the front line is shifted a few hundred kilometers to the east. Next, Germany conquer the Baltic provinces. However, a German peace proposal is rejected by the Tsar.
In 1916 the Russians have recovered and are able to launch three major offensives. Only the Brusilov offensive against the Austro-Hungarian army is initially successful. However, Germany get Sweden and Romania on its side. Via Romania, Brusilov is attacked from behind and defeated. Finland is liberated with Swedish help. This is followed by an offensive towards St. Petersburg. Faced with the Germans at the gates of the city and internal unrest, the Tsar is eventually forced to sign an armistice on 20 September 1916.

The Balkans
Largely similar to OTL. The Austro-Hungarian invasion of Serbia in 1914 is unsuccessful. Only after the Bulgarian entry into the war on 14 October 1915, a successful offensive follow in which Serbia is wiped off the map. As Italy remains neutral in this TL, Austria-Hungary has troops available to attack Montenegro and Albania as early as November. Because the British remain neutral, the Austrian navy has more possibilities along the Montenegrin and Albanian coasts. As a result, the escape route of the retreating Serbian army is cut off and it must surrender completely.

Middle Eastern theater
The Russian Caucasus Campaign is largely similar to OTL. Without the British, however, there will be no Gallipoli campaign. After Russian insistence, the French start the Alexandretta campaign in March 1915. After all, it remains quiet on the Western Front. The French are able to take the area around Alexendretta, but attacks towards Aleppo and Adana meet with unexpected fierce Ottoman resistance. The supply is also hampered by German U-boat attacks. Nevertheless, the French are able to hold their position and block the important roads between Anatolia and Arabia. A considerable amount of Ottoman troops are bound, which cannot be deployed against the Russians. The Russians therefore are able to conquer a considerable part of the Armenian Highland in 1916. However, the French cannot prevent the Armenian Genocide. For a detailed map, see this thread.

Maritime warfare
The German Kaiserliche Marine is blocking the Gulf of Finland and the White Sea. As a result, the Russians can hardly trade with foreign countries, except through Vladivostok. Only U-boats are used against the French in the Mediterranean. Deploying the HSF in the Mediterranean would increase the risk of British entry into the war on the French side too much. However, Germany does send out some ships to protect its colonies from French attacks. The French keep their fleet largely in the Mediterranean to maintain the blockade of the Adriatic Sea, to supply Alexandretta and to hunt German U-boats.

Colonial warfare
This is limited to Togoland and Kamerun. German Togoland is occupied by the French within two months after the start of the war. However, an attempt to conquer German Kamerun in 1915 fails. German colonial troops are able to move the fighting to Gabon. After the port city of Libreville is captured with the help of the Kaiserliche Marine, the battle is largely over.
 
The map below gives an outline of the course of this "Alternate Great War"
Europe_TheGreatWar.png
 
Berlin Peace Conference

After all parties involved have signed the armistice, Germany organizes a peace conference in Berlin. Three treaties will be drawn up at this conference, named after the location where the discussions take place. The status quo at the time of the armistice is taken as a starting point. The goal is to create a stable “Mitteleuropa”.


Treaty of Charlottenburg
This treaty is concluded at Charlottenburg Palace between the Central Powers and Russia. The main points are:

  1. Russia renounce all claims on the following areas:
    - Poland, including Volhynia and Polesia
    - Lithuania
    - The Baltic governorates (Estonia, Livonia and Courland), including Latgale
    - Finland
    - Bessarabia

  2. Poland is recognized as an independent kingdom, with the Habsburg Archduke Charles Stephen of Austria as king. The territory is expanded to include Volhynia, Polesia and Austrian Galicia.

  3. Lithuania is recognized as an independent kingdom, with Wilhelm Karl, Duke of Urach as king.

  4. The “United Baltic Duchy” is recognized as a German protectorate, with Adolf Friedrich of Mecklenburg as duke. This state consist of Estonia, Livonia, Courland and Latgale.

  5. Finland is recognized as an independent kingdom. The legitimacy of the existing Finnish parliament is confirmed. Sweden wants to restore the personal union, but the Finnish parliament chooses Prince Frederick Charles of Hesse as king. Part of the Karelian Isthmus and some islands in the Gulf of Finland remain part of Russia. In return, Finland gains access to the Arctic Ocean at Petsamo.

  6. The Aland Islands are claimed by both Sweden and Finland. It is decided to hold a plebiscite. After this, the islands join Sweden.

  7. Bessarabia is assigned to Romania.

  8. Russia withdraw from the Ottoman Empire and recognize the Ottoman sovereignty within the 1914 borders. As a solution to the Armenian question, the additional “Convention Concerning the Exchange of Armenian and Turkish Populations” will be signed. The remaining Armenian population settles in Russian Armenia, in return the Turkish population of this area is expelled to the Ottoman Empire.

The new states of Poland, Lithuania, United Baltic Duchy and Finland sign additional treaties with Germany on the establishment of a customs union and military partnership. With this, Germany gains lasting economic and military influence over these states, in return these states are assured of German military protection against Russia.


Treaty of Sanssouci
This treaty is concluded at New Palace in Sanssouci Park between the Central Powers and France. The main points are:

  1. France renounce all claims to Alsace-Lorraine

  2. France recognized the German annexation of Luxembourg.

  3. France pays a war indemnity of 5 billion gold francs. Germany occupies Longwy and Briey until the indemnity is paid.

  4. France withdraw from the Ottoman Empire and recognize Ottoman sovereignty within the 1914 borders.

  5. France cedes Gabon and French Congo to Germany.

  6. In exchange, Germany cedes Togoland to France.


Treaty of Berlin (1916)
This treaty is concluded at Berlin Royal Palace between all countries in Central and Southeastern Europe. It mainly concerns a realignment of the borders in the Balkans.

  1. Austria-Hungary annexes northern Serbia (Serbia within its pre-1878 borders) and Montenegro. These countries will have the same status within Austria-Hungary as "Bosnia and Herzegovina": a condominium between Austria and Hungary.

  2. Albania becomes an Austria-Hungarian protectorate. The territory is expanded with Metohija and Ulcinj.

  3. Bulgaria annexes the remaining part of Serbia, consisting of Nis, Kosovo and Vardar Macedonia.

  4. Austria cedes Galicia to the new Habsburg kingdom of Poland.

  5. Austria cedes the Bukovina to Romania.

  6. Romania returns the southern Dobruja to Bulgaria. (Romania has annexed the southern Dobruja in 1913)

  7. Northern Epirus is recognized as part of Greece. (Northern Epirus has been occupied by Greece since 1914)

  8. The Dodecanese is recognized as an Italian property. This counts as “compensation” for the Austrian influence over Albania. (The Dodecanese has been occupied by Italy since 1912)
 
Aftermath

The question is how this TL will develop further. To give you a start:

"Mitteleuropa"
The customs union and military alliance will probably continue to expand under German leadership and eventually lead to a kind of European Union in the long run. Will Austria-Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria join after some years? Probably also Sweden, Denmark and Greece? But does this also apply to the countries in Western Europe? How do France and Britain react to this development?

Poland
In fact, like the other new states, this will become a German puppet state. The Polish minority in Germany, mainly living in Posen and West Prussia, will be "encouraged" to settle in the eastern Polish areas of Wolhynia and Polesia. What will happen to the Ukrainians and Belarusians living there?

United Baltic Duchy

This protectorate is in fact ruled by a German-speaking elite. New German immigrants are likely to be attracted to strengthen this elite. Will they be able to maintain power? Or will this state eventually disintegrate into Estonia and Latvia?

Austria-Hungary
Will Austria-Hungary survive? The status of Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro is likely to cause problems. What will be the solution? Trialism? In which all South Slavs will be included in one new kingdom to be formed? Or will this be an intermediate step towards the independence of Hungary and “Yugoslavia”? Under that circumstance, will Austria join Germany?

Russia
The war ends with a major defeat for Russia. Will there still be a revolution? Will the Tsar have to resign? Or will he only lose his power? The Bolsheviks are unlikely to come to power. How will Russia develop?

Ottoman Empire
The war has brought nothing to the Ottoman Empire, except that the Northeast has become more ethnically homogeneous. The Christians around Alexandretta are likely to flee to France for fear of reprisals. Relations with Germany will have cooled because Germany has not advocated annexations in the Caucasus during negotiations with Russia. Will the Turks be able to continue to dominate Arabia? Or will the Arabs revolt sooner or later? Will France intervene again “to protect the Christians”?
 
Good stuff, Helmuth (a great map as always).

I have questions about Sweden:

1) How do the Germans get her onside? Granted there was plenty of pro-German tilt in Stockholm, and granted that there's less downside risk for Swedish belligerency with the war in this timeline, but there still needs to be some kind of casus belli to get them in - to make the sale to the broader Swedish public. For one thing, the Swedes were horribly unprepared for war, with an active army strength of less than 13,000 men - only a tenth of that of tiny Belgium! - and even worse logistics. A crash buildup is going to take *a lot* of time. King Gustaf and Wallenberg were all too painfully aware of this.

Which raises a second question...

2) How are the Swedes in any position to undertake the operations in Finland shown on the map? I could see the Swedes possibly securing the Aland Islands (as they did in OTL, later), and possibly supporting (mostly through their navy) German landings in Finland, but it is hard to see how they could do more than that.
 
Question - why would the Germans in the West not push farther into France? If two offensives failed so grandly I would think the Germans would attempt to exploit that and head for the Meuse. Also, without the British manpower, what stops the Germans for a run much deeper?
 
Question - why would the Germans in the West not push farther into France? If two offensives failed so grandly I would think the Germans would attempt to exploit that and head for the Meuse. Also, without the British manpower, what stops the Germans for a run much deeper?
Yeah that is a titanic sized butterfly net here
 
Question - why would the Germans in the West not push farther into France? If two offensives failed so grandly I would think the Germans would attempt to exploit that and head for the Meuse. Also, without the British manpower, what stops the Germans for a run much deeper?

Well...

For one thing, more of the German army is in the East in this timeline...

For another, the French only have about 190 miles of front to defend, instead of the 400+ of our timeline. And a lot of that front has extensive pre-war fortifications (cf. especially the Verdun-Toul zone).
 
Not bad, I'm a little surprised @Helmuth48 started a new thread instead of developing from his Eastern Front map thread, but that's neither here nor there.
Overall I'd say this is a pretty reasonable outcome, although getting the Swedes on board is a surprise. I think some extra information would be helpful in laying out how Germany managed that.
Now then, to get to the main points:
"Mitteleuropa"
The customs union and military alliance will probably continue to expand under German leadership and eventually lead to a kind of European Union in the long run. Will Austria-Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria join after some years? Probably also Sweden, Denmark and Greece? But does this also apply to the countries in Western Europe? How do France and Britain react to this development?
I'd say how closely Germany monitors/controls Poland, Lithuania, and the UBD will determine if Britain takes offense. A simple customs union and a broad treaty of mutual defense shouldn't ruffle too many feathers as it's really just trading Russia for Germany in the region. So long as the Germans kept up their promises with Britain during the war Anglo-German relations should continue to improve over the next decade.
I'd give it a few decades before anyone else official joins the customs union, although I'd put Denmark first in line.
France of course will despise everything, because the French have proven to be incredibly sore losers so far in the 20th century.
Poland
In fact, like the other new states, this will become a German puppet state. The Polish minority in Germany, mainly living in Posen and West Prussia, will be "encouraged" to settle in the eastern Polish areas of Wolhynia and Polesia. What will happen to the Ukrainians and Belarusians living there?
My instinct is for Germany's best option in Poland would be to do nothing: just leave Poland to self-govern under its own government like they wanted, but with the economic benefits of the customs union and military alliance. I don't think Germany would need to "encourage" Poles much to move over to Poland, to the best of my knowledge most of the people leaving Poland before the war were trying to get away from the Russians and having an independent Poland to go back to will be a decent incentive to 'return to the homeland'.
United Baltic Duchy
This protectorate is in fact ruled by a German-speaking elite. New German immigrants are likely to be attracted to strengthen this elite. Will they be able to maintain power? Or will this state eventually disintegrate into Estonia and Latvia?
My bet is that the German aristocracy will remain pretty small and reliant on keeping the locals happy to maintain power, I suspect most German population growth will be in the areas bordering Poland as populations shift east as native Poles move back to Poland, a situation that will continue until whoever comes out on top in Russia decides to try reclaiming 'lost' territories.
Austria-Hungary
Will Austria-Hungary survive? The status of Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro is likely to cause problems. What will be the solution? Trialism? In which all South Slavs will be included in one new kingdom to be formed? Or will this be an intermediate step towards the independence of Hungary and “Yugoslavia”? Under that circumstance, will Austria join Germany?
I have my doubts Austria-Hungary will survive long beyond Emperor Franz Joseph. AH was already disintegrating OTL under Emperor Charles I/IV OTL before the armistice and I highly doubt Charles will have any more success TTL. I'd assume a couple of years of semi-chaos before an international conference is held to finalized the borders of the region, probably something like OTL but a version without Yugoslavia (so how it's finally turned out OTL) is equally likely in my opinion.
Russia
The war ends with a major defeat for Russia. Will there still be a revolution? Will the Tsar have to resign? Or will he only lose his power? The Bolsheviks are unlikely to come to power. How will Russia develop?
Oh yeah, there's still going to be another revolution, the war in either timeline is going to be hell for Russia and the power of the monarchy is going to be pretty thoroughly broken by the time they sue for peace with Germany.
Ideally Alexander's brother will take over as a constitutional monarch but if he refuses the post as he did OTL then we'll see a repeat of the February Revolution but with the extra stability of not still being at war.
It's going to take a long time for Russia to be anything other than the 'punch-drunk bear' trying to hold itself together but gradual liberalization should take hold unless the communists win more elections. I'm going to assume most of the communists banished from Russia will make their way back into the country unless the Duma is of the opinion they're safer where they are.
Ottoman Empire
The war has brought nothing to the Ottoman Empire, except that the Northeast has become more ethnically homogeneous. The Christians around Alexandretta are likely to flee to France for fear of reprisals. Relations with Germany will have cooled because Germany has not advocated annexations in the Caucasus during negotiations with Russia. Will the Turks be able to continue to dominate Arabia? Or will the Arabs revolt sooner or later? Will France intervene again “to protect the Christians”?
I have no idea what the internal politics of the Ottomans is like but I highly doubt the empire lasts more than a couple of decades before they've lost everything south of Syria to independence movements (assisted by helpful nations like France and Britain looking for opportunities to carve off small parts of the Sick Man, no doubt).

Apologies for the long-winded post, I figured I'd break my thoughts down point by point. Again, the only big question marks surround how Sweden joins the war but otherwise I'd say the results are pretty reasonable.
 
A simple customs union and a broad treaty of mutual defense shouldn't ruffle too many feathers as it's really just trading Russia for Germany in the region.

Well, trading direct Tsarist rule for a customs union and a defensive treaty is a major gain in autonomy, no matter how overbearing Berlin might get!
 
Good stuff, Helmuth (a great map as always).

I have questions about Sweden:

1) How do the Germans get her onside? Granted there was plenty of pro-German tilt in Stockholm, and granted that there's less downside risk for Swedish belligerency with the war in this timeline, but there still needs to be some kind of casus belli to get them in - to make the sale to the broader Swedish public. For one thing, the Swedes were horribly unprepared for war, with an active army strength of less than 13,000 men - only a tenth of that of tiny Belgium! - and even worse logistics. A crash buildup is going to take *a lot* of time. King Gustaf and Wallenberg were all too painfully aware of this.

Which raises a second question...

2) How are the Swedes in any position to undertake the operations in Finland shown on the map? I could see the Swedes possibly securing the Aland Islands (as they did in OTL, later), and possibly supporting (mostly through their navy) German landings in Finland, but it is hard to see how they could do more than that.

Good question! Well, after reading this thread by @Eric C Johnson , I got convinced that a Swedish conquest of Finland should be possible. With German support of course.

Once the Germans land in southern Finland and start an offensive towards St. Petersburg, most of the Russian forces will withdrawal to form a defensive line at the Karelian Isthmus (a reverse Mannerheim Line).

There will be a power vacuum in the rest of Finland that the Swedes can easily exploit to ‘protect the Swedish minority’. This ‘excuse’ was also used in OTL to occupy the Aland Islands, so why not in this TL to also capture Abo and Vasa? Maybe some ‘incident’ happens for a clear casus belli. Once in Finland, the Swedish army can be enlarged with Finnish volunteers. The rest of Finland can then be ‘liberated’ without significant opposition.

Of course the Germans will have to make some commitments to Sweden. Supply of weapons and ammunition, giving the Aland Islands to Sweden as a ‘reward’, ...
 
Good question! Well, after reading this thread by @Eric C Johnson , I got convinced that a Swedish conquest of Finland should be possible. With German support of course.

Once the Germans land in southern Finland and start an offensive towards St. Petersburg, most of the Russian forces will withdrawal to form a defensive line at the Karelian Isthmus (a reverse Mannerheim Line).

There will be a power vacuum in the rest of Finland that the Swedes can easily exploit to ‘protect the Swedish minority’. This ‘excuse’ was also used in OTL to occupy the Aland Islands, so why not in this TL to also capture Abo and Vasa? Maybe some ‘incident’ happens for a clear casus belli. Once in Finland, the Swedish army can be enlarged with Finnish volunteers. The rest of Finland can then be ‘liberated’ without significant opposition.

Of course the Germans will have to make some commitments to Sweden. Supply of weapons and ammunition, giving the Aland Islands to Sweden as a ‘reward’, ...

Like I argued in the thread you linked to, a Swedish conquest of Finland would not be all that easy in reality. I think you are being much too optimistic for Sweden's chances here. The Russians have a vested interest in trying to hold on to southern Finland to keep St. Peterburg's defences intact for as long as possible. A direct withdrawal to the Karelian Isthmus would be counterproductive, given that Russia enjoys serious logistical benefits in Finland by being able to supply its troops via a short and direct rail line from the capital while the Swedish would have to use ships. In the winter, especially, the Swedish supply situation could easily turn quite poor.

For Russia, giving Finland up without a fight is not logical.
 
I have no idea what the internal politics of the Ottomans is like but I highly doubt the empire lasts more than a couple of decades before they've lost everything south of Syria to independence movements (assisted by helpful nations like France and Britain looking for opportunities to carve off small parts of the Sick Man, no doubt).
Unlikely.
Germany has interests in Iraq (Baghdad railway, that allows them access to Indian Ocean).

I don't think CUP will be able to remain in power if they got no benefit from the war. And without CUP there is no turkification process. Without it, which removes incentive for rebellion from Arabs.
There is also the fact that I wouldn't assume Ottomans to just sit back down and do nothing. I would assume logistics would be improved (among other things). Thus it would be far easier to quell any rebellion that arises.
 
Aftermath

The question is how this TL will develop further. To give you a start:

"Mitteleuropa"
The customs union and military alliance will probably continue to expand under German leadership and eventually lead to a kind of European Union in the long run. Will Austria-Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria join after some years? Probably also Sweden, Denmark and Greece? But does this also apply to the countries in Western Europe? How do France and Britain react to this development?
OTL, the European Union (or rather the common market which came before it) was a deliberate attempt at creating a supranational collaboration in order to prevent further devastating wars. Why would a victorious Germany high on nationalism seek an supranational collaboration?

Sure, we might get things like a common currency or a high court for trade matters, but anything beyond that seems dubious.

Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands and Belgium would be unlikely to benefit from being part of a German led common market, as this would threaten their exports to UK, US and rest of world.

In terms of a military alliance, then who joins this depends on who is threaten by whom. A popular trope in a CP-victory is for a fascist/communist France or elsewhere, but this shouldn't really be the case here. In peace, the militarists are disgraced and the peace has been "won" in the sense that France was not severely punished (as OTL Germany in 1919). All this should strenghen the doves of French politics.

The only reason I could see for Denmark to join a CP-block was if Germany agreed to a plebiscite in Northern Schleswig as per OTL, but I don't really see Germany doing that.
Russia
The war ends with a major defeat for Russia. Will there still be a revolution? Will the Tsar have to resign? Or will he only lose his power? The Bolsheviks are unlikely to come to power. How will Russia develop?
Compared to OTLs catastrophic defeat , Russia is in a better position relatively speaking. In case of internal uprisings, the Tsar now has the army at home to put them down. Thus, if there is a revolution, then it is likely to fail. Political, the only realistic options before the Tsar, which doesn't get him replaced by someone else, is to continue down a proto-fascist path or to go for granting the Duma more say.

Overall, with a limited ww1 with only (my guess) 10 million dead or wounded, we get:
- Some 30 millions more people alive and well. Mostly in Europe, but things like the Persian famine (OTL 2m dead) are also butterflied away.
- ATL technology and wealth moves forward 4-5 years due to less destruction in fewer countries.
- No British losses means huge manpower available for maintaining the empire.
- No US involvement means a richer and more inward looking USA.
 
For another, the French only have about 190 miles of front to defend, instead of the 400+ of our timeline. And a lot of that front has extensive pre-war fortifications (cf. especially the Verdun-Toul zone).
And Germans did see, how bad were the losses against well prepaered defenders - in this case French losses against German defenders - there are more reasons for Germany for not to attack and not conquer than to attack and conquer.
 
Like I argued in the thread you linked to, a Swedish conquest of Finland would not be all that easy in reality. I think you are being much too optimistic for Sweden's chances here. The Russians have a vested interest in trying to hold on to southern Finland to keep St. Peterburg's defences intact for as long as possible. A direct withdrawal to the Karelian Isthmus would be counterproductive, given that Russia enjoys serious logistical benefits in Finland by being able to supply its troops via a short and direct rail line from the capital while the Swedish would have to use ships. In the winter, especially, the Swedish supply situation could easily turn quite poor.

For Russia, giving Finland up without a fight is not logical.

I fully agree that Sweden is unable to occupy Finland on its own. But when Germany takes on the heavy fighting along the south coast ... Then Sweden only needs to 'clean up' some small Russian units in the interior. In this TL, Germany has already occupied Estonia. And it has the HSF at its disposal. Then a German landing in southern Finland must be possible, right? Or is that still too optimistic?
 
I fully agree that Sweden is unable to occupy Finland on its own. But when Germany takes on the heavy fighting along the south coast ... Then Sweden only needs to 'clean up' some small Russian units in the interior. In this TL, Germany has already occupied Estonia. And it has the HSF at its disposal. Then a German landing in southern Finland must be possible, right? Or is that still too optimistic?

For a German landing on the southern coast, you will need to take into account the Russian fleet, coastal artillery, and different minefields the Russians would have laid on the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea, along with the Russian Army units on the mainland. A landing in southern Finland will be a major operation that can get quite costly to the Germans before they manage a good foothold on the Finnish mainland. IOTL, the German landings in southern Finland were so easy in 1918 because the Russian military had disintegrated and left, and the Finnish Reds were totally unable to protect the coastal areas against a professional military. The Germans practically moved into a military vacuum. In 1916, with the Russian military still functional and operational, the landings would be significantly more difficult.

One example of how dangerous operating in the Gulf of Finland at the time was is the fate of the 10th Torpedo Boat Flotilla in November 1916:

BALTIC MINEFIELD DISASTER NOV 1916

Between November 10th and 11th, 1916, the German fleet lost 7 Großes Torpedoboot 1913 (V-25 class) torpedo boats (S-57, S-58, S-59, V-72, V-75, V-76 and G-90) in a Russian mine field in the Baltic.

Rear Adm Langemak, commander of the German Baltic "reconnaissance forces" planned a raid on the western part of the Gulf of Finland to catch any Russian transports sailing at night in the Revel (Tallinn, capital of Estonia) area and to shell Baltic Port (or Baltiski, modern Paldiski) also in northern Estonia.

The result was a major disaster. Eleven destroyers of the 10th Torpedoboat Flotilla (Cdr Wietling in S-56) sailed and only four returned, the rest lost to the dense Russian minefields. On the way into the Gulf of Finland and passing to the north of Cape Tachkona, north tip of Dagö island (modern Hiiumaa) late on the 10th, first V-75 sank and the damaged S-57 had to be scuttled. An unsuccessful attack was made on Baltic Port, no Russian shipping was found, and as the Flotilla returned, V-72, G-90, S-58, S-59 and V-76 in order of loss, sank between 03.45hrs and 06.25hrs early on the 11th. Total casualties were remarkably light.

SHIPS LOST

V-75 on 10th November 1916 at 22.04hrs, 25 miles north of Cape Tachkona, 3 killed.
S-57 on 10th November 1916 at 22.18hrs, 25 miles north of Cape Tachkona, 2 killed.
V-72 on 11th November 1916 at 03.45hrs, 25 miles north west of Odensholm island, no casualties.
G-90 on 11th November 1916 at 03.52hrs, 15 miles west of Odensholm island, 11 killed.
S-58 on 11th November 1916 at 04.25hrs, 15 miles WNW of Odensholm island, no casualties.
S-59 on 11th November 1916 at 05.48hrs, 25 miles west of Odensholm island, no casualties.
V-76 on 11th November 1916 at 06.25hrs, 20 miles north of Cape Tachkona, 1 killed.

Read more at wrecksite: https://www.wrecksite.eu/wreck.aspx?17823
 
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For a German landing on the southern coast, you will need to take into account the Russian fleet, coastal artillery, and different minefields the Russians would have laid on the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea, along with the Russian Army units on the mainland. A landing in southern Finland will be a major operation that can get quite costly to the Germans before they manage a good foothold on the Finnish mainland. IOTL, the German landings in southern Finland were so easy in 1918 because the Russian military had disintegrated and left, and the Finnish Reds were totally unable to protect the coastal areas against a professional military. The Germans practically moved into a military vacuum. In 1916, with the Russian military still functional and operational, the landings would be significantly more difficult.

Hm ... The Russian Baltic fleet is no match for the HSF, but those minefields are tricky, as is the coastal artillery. Indeed becomes more difficult as OTL 1918, but not impossible, in my opinion.
 
Hm ... The Russian Baltic fleet is no match for the HSF, but those minefields are tricky, as is the coastal artillery. Indeed becomes more difficult as OTL 1918, but not impossible, in my opinion.

It is perhaps not impossible, but would it be worth of risking losing a major part of the HSF, and other units and forces besides, to take Finland?
 
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