Somewhere between 50-150 KM inland in the southern half of the country.
America Be Watching With The Popcorn: A Sino-Soviet War TL
- Thread starter theflyingmongoose
- Start date
Much more bloodier too, as I don't think any reform would happening in near term.
So did the Watergate scandal not happen? If so was it because he wasn't caught or (more likely imo) he didn't feel the need to spy on the Democrats because his re-election chances were so high? (as we saw from his landslide victory). No Watergate scandal has huge butterflies in the U.S. since it caused many Americans to become disillusioned and distrusting of the government and it's effects are still felt today.
I’m thinking Nixon wouldn’t feel the need to spy in the first place.
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Me thinks Brezhnev is on his last legs, after this whole mess I don’t think he’ll remain in power much longer.
First, though, I think the Warsaw Pact members will be trying to flee en masse and the Soviets will respond in a way that makes the Hungarian Revolution look like a picnic
That depends on the politics of the WP countries at the time as well as how desperate Brezhnev and/or his successor is. I said before he could be “encouraged” to step down over this debacle and his OTL successor didn’t have a great record on most anything save for learning that violence against WP members turned out to be a bad idea.
Soviets would try once at least, thinking it would end like Hungary and Czechoslovakia
Speaking of which, if Brezhnev step down right now (1973), who will be his successor?
I speculated earlier in the thread it might be his OTL successor, Yuri Andropov. He took over in 1975 after Brezhnev had a stroke before formally becoming Premier in 1982...followed by crashing and burning and dying shortly after of kidney failure.
He Was... Retired: The January Soviet Coup
On paper, the Soviets won the war.
On paper means that they achieved tactical victory over the Chinese. For most Soviet citizens, however, it felt as if they lost. The majority of the world had imposed sanctions on the nation. Even with the raiding of the Chinese treasury and 'contributions' from Warsaw Pact nations, the number of people in poverty and/or starving increased. This wasn't at all good for the Soviet leadership. Premier Brezhnev was in a tough situation. Despite presiding over a country that committed a large number of war crimes and human rights abuses, some senior members of the military and the leadership were fed up with all of Brezhnev's antics.
If it was just a segment of the total government, then Brezhnev wouldn't have much to worry about. But this was multiple groups, and (most dangerously) included most of the military.
The military was mad at Brezhnev for multiple reasons, mostly stemming from the aftermath of the war. While soldiers who were injured during the Sino-Soviet War were originally going to receive a pension, monetary shortages and corruption had resulted in that never coming to fruition. Seeing their comrades on the freezing streets greatly angered the troops, and their commander-in-chief who seemed to them to be doing absolutely nothing.
At about 5:00 AM on January 17, 1974, several hundred active troops (along with a few thousand veterans) overpowered the guards at the Trinity Tower and entered the Kremlin. They made their way to the Senate building, where the Premier was staying. The Premier was captured at 5:32 AM, and he gave a speech on Soviet television a few hours later. In this speech, he announced his resignation due to 'health reasons' and fled Moscow the following day. However, this would not be the last of Brezhnev, as his plane landed at a military base in Kazakstan that he had staffed with loyal allies in the case of him being overthrown.
Premier Brezhnev announces his resignation, January 18, 1974
However, the most immediate matter for most of the Soviet populace was who would be the new leader. The majority of the population only found out about this when it aired on TV, which was over a day after the coup occurred. As it turned out, there was a good reason for this. A few thousand soldiers and veterans had managed to overthrow one of the most powerful men in the world, but they didn't have someone within their ranks to take over the job. In the end, this problem was solved for them.
General Sergey Akhromeyev was a hardline military hero from the Sino-Soviet War, where he had commanded ground forces in the offensive to take back east Manchuria. When news of the coup came, he ordered the military to take control of the Kremlin, which was achieved within a few hours. He overwhelmed everyone within the walls and moved right in to the Premier's office.
Sergey Akhromeyev, Premier of the Soviet Union (January 18, 1974-)
During the next few days, while Akhromeyev consolidated his power, some of the Warsaw Pact states decided to take advantage of the chaos. On January 19, the Czech part of Czechoslovakia and major segments of Hungary revolted. The new premier had a difficult decision about what to do. In the end, however, he decided to take a hybrid approach:
Crush the hungarians and get rid of the Czechs.
It might seem odd that a communist hardliner would allow a country to choose its own fate, but the logic is actually sound. The revolt in Hungary was nation-wide, and needed to be crushed. The Czechs had a history of revolts and rebellion, and allowing them independence while crushing the Hungarians quietly would hopefully result in the west lifting sanctions, at least temporarily. As much as it pained the new leader to release Czechia, the survival of the union depended on it.
After all, it wouldn't be long until the people turned on him if he did nothing.
On paper means that they achieved tactical victory over the Chinese. For most Soviet citizens, however, it felt as if they lost. The majority of the world had imposed sanctions on the nation. Even with the raiding of the Chinese treasury and 'contributions' from Warsaw Pact nations, the number of people in poverty and/or starving increased. This wasn't at all good for the Soviet leadership. Premier Brezhnev was in a tough situation. Despite presiding over a country that committed a large number of war crimes and human rights abuses, some senior members of the military and the leadership were fed up with all of Brezhnev's antics.
If it was just a segment of the total government, then Brezhnev wouldn't have much to worry about. But this was multiple groups, and (most dangerously) included most of the military.
The military was mad at Brezhnev for multiple reasons, mostly stemming from the aftermath of the war. While soldiers who were injured during the Sino-Soviet War were originally going to receive a pension, monetary shortages and corruption had resulted in that never coming to fruition. Seeing their comrades on the freezing streets greatly angered the troops, and their commander-in-chief who seemed to them to be doing absolutely nothing.
At about 5:00 AM on January 17, 1974, several hundred active troops (along with a few thousand veterans) overpowered the guards at the Trinity Tower and entered the Kremlin. They made their way to the Senate building, where the Premier was staying. The Premier was captured at 5:32 AM, and he gave a speech on Soviet television a few hours later. In this speech, he announced his resignation due to 'health reasons' and fled Moscow the following day. However, this would not be the last of Brezhnev, as his plane landed at a military base in Kazakstan that he had staffed with loyal allies in the case of him being overthrown.
Premier Brezhnev announces his resignation, January 18, 1974
General Sergey Akhromeyev was a hardline military hero from the Sino-Soviet War, where he had commanded ground forces in the offensive to take back east Manchuria. When news of the coup came, he ordered the military to take control of the Kremlin, which was achieved within a few hours. He overwhelmed everyone within the walls and moved right in to the Premier's office.
Sergey Akhromeyev, Premier of the Soviet Union (January 18, 1974-)
During the next few days, while Akhromeyev consolidated his power, some of the Warsaw Pact states decided to take advantage of the chaos. On January 19, the Czech part of Czechoslovakia and major segments of Hungary revolted. The new premier had a difficult decision about what to do. In the end, however, he decided to take a hybrid approach:
Crush the hungarians and get rid of the Czechs.
It might seem odd that a communist hardliner would allow a country to choose its own fate, but the logic is actually sound. The revolt in Hungary was nation-wide, and needed to be crushed. The Czechs had a history of revolts and rebellion, and allowing them independence while crushing the Hungarians quietly would hopefully result in the west lifting sanctions, at least temporarily. As much as it pained the new leader to release Czechia, the survival of the union depended on it.
After all, it wouldn't be long until the people turned on him if he did nothing.
Guess he was fed up with the Czechs. Going to be a big PR win for NATO if they get the Czechs to join them.
Meanwhile things are about to get bloody in Hungary. I bet this will get bloody. Wonder if the US and NATO will send aid to the hungarian rebels. Just keep bleeding the Soviets dry until they collapse.
This new guy has inherited quite the mess, let’s see how long he lasts. After all it doesn’t seem like this house or cards is all that stable right now.
Meanwhile things are about to get bloody in Hungary. I bet this will get bloody. Wonder if the US and NATO will send aid to the hungarian rebels. Just keep bleeding the Soviets dry until they collapse.
This new guy has inherited quite the mess, let’s see how long he lasts. After all it doesn’t seem like this house or cards is all that stable right now.
That's better thinking than I'm used to hearing from the Soviet leadership. Still immoral, still not sure it's going to work, but definitely an improvement in strategic depth.
Things are going to unravel quickly if they don't act smartly... I give it 50/50 chance.
My guess is that Czechia will be initially neutral, with a referendum on joining NATO by 1980.
Well the sanctions were pretty porous, the Soviets still exported a lot of 'energy (oil, gas, etc) and 'unspecified materials' (arms) and imported lots of grain and other agricultural products. If that gets cut off then there is another massive spike in oil prices in the West and the Soviets start running out of food, so honestly I cannot see these sanctions happening. Even if the US gets angry enough to cut off their nose to spite their face (do they really care that much about China) does Western Europe? Does South America and Africa? Maybe the Soviets have to cut down on industrial imports, but they will get food from somewhere and have enough valuable exports to pay for it.
I also struggle to see the Soviet leadership being stupid enough to cut the Army first, you'd hit other groups first surely? Even if you felt forced into it Brezhnev knew the rules of the game, the Soviet state had three pillars; Army, Party and KGB. You could only annoy one at a time, but if you had the other two on side then you were safe. So if the Army is getting heavy cuts then expect to see the KGB's Army Directorate ramp up the surveillance and cut off any coup by arresting any general who looks less than 100% loyal.