20 Years Later: What's Next For Britain
By Jason Cowley
There are students graduating from university this year who don't remember a Monarchy. For them, the Windsors are those grumpy old people a million miles away who occasionally lose another nation. But for those of us a little older who remember the old times, we have been through some of the most significant times in British history. We have seen the fall of a centuries-old institution, and the rise of something new, we have seen the "mother of all Parliaments" changed beyond recognition.
Britain's differences are multitude, I doubt we would have seen UKIP, the Greens, the SNP, the BNP or the Brexit Alliance break into mainstream politics the way they have in our fair Commonwealth, I doubt we would have seen nine consecutive years of Labour Government. Nigel Farage, Natalie Bennett, Nicola Sturgeon, in another world they might have been local Councillors at best, but here they are MPs, Home Secretaries and Premiers.
To say Britain has changed has been a running part of our "20 Years in the Commonwealth" series of articles, and is nothing new, from the "BBC Parliament London" channel on my TV, to Diana's beaming face on my fiver, I am very much aware Britain has changed. But I want to speak about the future. With the fog of Covid engulfing our planet the future is murkier than ever. First, there is the question of the vaccine, if all goes well we should be "back to normal" by late 2021/early 2022. If everything goes wrong, we could be in lockdown well into 2022.
There's also the issue of cohabitation, Michael Howard was the impiety of a well-behaved cohabiting President, a quiet statesman, only intervening when supremely necessary, I very much doubt Ed Miliband will be the same. The Labour sharks will be circling, and there is talk of a Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner or Andy Burnham replacing Miliband on the top ticket should he fail to impress Labour activists.
The stakes are also high for Mr Sunak, the 39-year-old is young and untested, he has few enemies within the Tory caucus, but also few friends, the party is famously ruthless, one slip is all it will take. With both men facing pressure from within, there is little insensitive to back down or compromise, which doesn't bode well for the next three years (at least) of cohabitation.
There is also the issue of Europe, Mr Sunak has promised a referendum as soon as covid is over, most officials expect 2022 to be the earliest such a referendum can take place, a year before Sunak has to face the voters again. Sunak is a committed Eurosceptic, and polls over Brexit are narrowing, if Britain comes out of the Covid recession just to face a sudden exit from the EU the consequences could be dire.
Britain is a greener, fairer, more pluralist place than it was twenty years ago, our nations and regions have a voice, and our political class is at least occasionally forced to cooperate. The Commonwealth was a strange little experiment but if you ask this bleeding heart lefty magazine editor it appears to be a success, it has survived the Diana Crisis, the Financial Crisis and now the Covid Crisis. The British state has a remarkable ability to reinvent itself when needed, the Commonwealth is not the first iteration of Britain I doubt it will be the last.
I'm not usually one for guache nationalism, but twenty years calls for a celebration, I for one will be popping open a bottle of champagne over Zoom and googling the lyrics to "A Land of Hope and Glory". The last twenty years have been fascinating, and for better or worse we have all lived in interesting times. Here's to 20 years more.