Sir John Valentine Carden survives.

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Something else to consider is that the Germans know next to nothing about the Valiant tanks. Unlike every other British tank they do not have examples to examine, repair and test, only combat reports from outside Calais and the Italians in North Africa. These reports will show the Valiant rolling over all opposition with anti tank shells bouncing off. This is going to make the planner nervous, especially given they will by now have grave doubts about their Italian allies. It's possible they decide North Africa isn't worth the risk. Tank terror can effect the high command just as much as it can the troops on the ground.
 
Something else to consider is that the Germans know next to nothing about the Valiant tanks. Unlike every other British tank they do not have examples to examine, repair and test, only combat reports from outside Calais and the Italians in North Africa. These reports will show the Valiant rolling over all opposition with anti tank shells bouncing off. This is going to make the planner nervous, especially given they will by now have grave doubts about their Italian allies. It's possible they decide North Africa isn't worth the risk. Tank terror can effect the high command just as much as it can the troops on the ground.
There is the other option that the Germans, on hearing Italian reports of "The new Invincible British tank" might just ignore them as attempts by the Italian's to save their blushes. That could well make the prospect of German intervention less likely as they see the Italian's as broken and searching for excuses.
It may well take hard evidence like photographs etc to prove it and they probably don't exist.
 
There is the other option that the Germans, on hearing Italian reports of "The new Invincible British tank" might just ignore them as attempts by the Italian's to save their blushes. That could well make the prospect of German intervention less likely as they see the Italian's as broken and searching for excuses.
It may well take hard evidence like photographs etc to prove it and they probably don't exist.
Mayby not, but mayby the censors miss something in the Pathe and-or Propagande News Reels, Just a scene with the proud tank crews that show off their trusty tank that saved their lives.. the scars of impact of AP rounds, comfirming the tales of the Italiaans that their AT-guns rounds just bounced off...
 
Hm, it's a pity some of the Australian units have already procured some Italian equipment, or it could all have been sent to Greece.
 
Mayby not, but mayby the censors miss something in the Pathe and-or Propagande News Reels, Just a scene with the proud tank crews that show off their trusty tank that saved their lives.. the scars of impact of AP rounds, comfirming the tales of the Italiaans that their AT-guns rounds just bounced off...
Didn't think of that, depends on when those films come out though. It won't be straight away and the delay may be enough to sway Germany one way.
 
Didn't think of that, depends on when those films come out though. It won't be straight away and the delay may be enough to sway Germany one way.
I think that `Good News` aka a Big Victory for the Britsh Army is pushed quickly around the world (6 to 12 weeks), it will be prove to a lot of neutral / allied country´s that England can fight the Axis forces. The Germans still have military attaches around the world, and the news reels are a kind of open source material.
 
I think that `Good News` aka a Big Victory for the Britsh Army is pushed quickly around the world (6 to 12 weeks), it will be prove to a lot of neutral / allied country´s that England can fight the Axis forces. The Germans still have military attaches around the world, and the news reels are a kind of open source material.
The news will travel very quickly, within days of it happening. The physical film reel possibly taken some days after the actual battle will take longer to make its way round the world.
 
gotta love logistics.did a quick calculation about what one could expect a 3 ton truck could deliver from Mersa Matra to Sirte.By the shortest route it is 723 miles(google maps) giving roughly a 1500 mile round trip and figuring an average 20mph and 5mpg you could do one round trip every week but one third of your load would be fuel for the truck,not including brakedowns,air attacks or the occasional impolite armored car popping up.Taking ports intact and being able to run ships into them has a major multiplier effect which Rommel was hard pressed to utilise,something about ships sinking.Now if that ship sinking mentioned earlier was the size of a Liberty ship and full of crated 3 ton trucks(I estimate close to 500) and assuming a weekly net of 2 tons per truck then thats 1000 tons per week delivery capacity lost.ouch.
 
Another good update.

Three full weeks ahead of OTL and Tobruk is in British hands and open to shipping. Not only that but in better condition than OTL. The capture of the naval fuel and floating crane are big bonuses for the British ITTL.

Where to next though, that is the question. Will the British push on to Derna and then Benghazi or will they try a two pronged attack and send a "Combe force" to look at enveloping the Italian's.

A lot will come down to how organised the Italian's are right now. If they are in complete disarray, not unlikely given how fast the British are moving, then they could very quickly get over run.
 
gotta love logistics.did a quick calculation about what one could expect a 3 ton truck could deliver from Mersa Matra to Sirte.By the shortest route it is 723 miles(google maps) giving roughly a 1500 mile round trip and figuring an average 20mph and 5mpg you could do one round trip every week but one third of your load would be fuel for the truck,not including brakedowns,air attacks or the occasional impolite armored car popping up.Taking ports intact and being able to run ships into them has a major multiplier effect which Rommel was hard pressed to utilise,something about ships sinking.Now if that ship sinking mentioned earlier was the size of a Liberty ship and full of crated 3 ton trucks(I estimate close to 500) and assuming a weekly net of 2 tons per truck then thats 1000 tons per week delivery capacity lost.ouch.
The fact that there's no port on the Bay of Sidra is likely to be the only thing to stop the British.
 
a 1500 mile round trip and figuring an average 20mph ...
Hunh. That's actually better than I thought.
However, DOES a 3 ton truck get 5mpg on dirt tracks? (Because however good the road was beforehand, it's going be a dirt track by the time the tanks and hundreds/thousands of truck trips have been made over it.)
 
Hunh. That's actually better than I thought.
However, DOES a 3 ton truck get 5mpg on dirt tracks? (Because however good the road was beforehand, it's going be a dirt track by the time the tanks and hundreds/thousands of truck trips have been made over it.)
my guess.it's more an example of how thin that rubber band gets the more you stretch it.at 2.5 mpg you put 3 tons in at one end and get 1 ton out at the other end.And of course that is imperial gallons i use.
 
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Going back to the railway...
Got hold of a download called the desert railway, on the New Zealand Railway group.
The railway was standard gauge (4' 81/2")
According to another source on a single track railway a "normal" train in 1940 would be 60 cars, capable of carrying 4,400 tons of cargo.
Or 1,500 ish 3 ton truck loads, on 1 train.

According to the document the New Zealand railway group arrived at Mersa Matruh in October '40.
They spent the next months being faffed about building useless pillboxes.
Started building the Mersa Matruh to Bardia section in May '41, after it was postponed when compass was a success.
Did 1-2 miles a day, adding stations, marshalling loops etc.
If started in October '40 the line could have been 30-40 miles behind the front at the start of compass, and approaching Sollum/Capuzzo by the time of Rommels counterattack.
 
Going back to the railway...
Got hold of a download called the desert railway, on the New Zealand Railway group.
The railway was standard gauge (4' 81/2")
According to another source on a single track railway a "normal" train in 1940 would be 60 cars, capable of carrying 4,400 tons of cargo.
Or 1,500 ish 3 ton truck loads, on 1 train.

According to the document the New Zealand railway group arrived at Mersa Matruh in October '40.
They spent the next months being faffed about building useless pillboxes.
Started building the Mersa Matruh to Bardia section in May '41, after it was postponed when compass was a success.
Did 1-2 miles a day, adding stations, marshalling loops etc.
If started in October '40 the line could have been 30-40 miles behind the front at the start of compass, and approaching Sollum/Capuzzo by the time of Rommels counterattack.
Every little bit helps. Also see if you can also get teams onto the two lines out of Benghazi.
 
In which case the Japanese will be reconsidering their actions.

It was the impression of weakness that the fall of France and further defeats gave that empowered the Souther plan war lobby.

Full on Victory desease came later
I think the US led oil embargo against the Japanese war lobby had something on their decision making processes. They were originally planning on going north, against the fUSSR, rather than south, against the various Imperial powers. The US led oil embargo was intended to make things difficult if the Japanese continued on their merry ways in China and then Indo-China. The problem was, Churchill and Roosevelt didn't really have a plan on how to back that embargo if it made things go hot between Japan and them...
 
Lucky break there for the 6th! The capture of the port before the guns and fuel stores were destroyed is a fantastic stroke of luck.

One thing I'm particularly enjoying about these updates is how things we take for granted as part of the late war are getting their starts as impromptu in-field acts that officers pick up on and, most importantly, respond with 'hm, that worked well, let's keep doing that.'
It's a very reasonable and believable way for Best Practices to be picked up early relative to OTL.
Well done once again, @allanpcameron
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
German intervention in North Africa.

Given events taking place in North Africa, the Germans face a dilemma, to intervene or not. Let us look first at the first option, not intervening. North Africa holds little strategic importance for German at present, and will be a diversion from their present focus of effort, the invasion of Soviet Russia. Other than to bolster their Allie Italy, there is no reason for them to get involved, and many reasons for them not to. It will require the allocation of significant resources, resources that they are at present short of, particularly motor vehicles, tanks and oil. The motor vehicles sent to support the Africa Coups, would have been far more useful to the Army in the upcoming conflict in the Soviet Union. Well that’s if the Germans have the fuel for them, but without the North African commitment, Germany will have more oil to use in Russia. Note it’s not only the ground units that you have to send, there is also the air units, that could too have been much better used in the east against the Soviet Union. The problem with non intervention is what to do about French North Africa, if you don’t intervene, the British will eventually take over French North Africa. And the Vichy French will not be happy about this.

So as we can see while non intervention has many advantages for the Germans, it isn’t really a viable choice. Thus the Germans have to decide what sort and type of intervention to engage in, complete, and attempt to throw the British out of North Africa, or minimal that just aims to basically hold the line at Tripoli. And prevent the British from taking over French North Africa, with the minimal expenditure of resources by the Germans. Given the upcoming action against the Soviet Union, the is being planned for right now, the Germans are going to want the minimum intervention that they can get away with, which is what they planned for IOTL. However Rommel, who wasn’t sent to the area because he was regarded by the signor Germany military commanders as brilliant, if he was he would have been picked for a role in the Russian invasion. He was regarded as unreliable, and wont to ignore orders and get himself and his command into situations that required others to dig him out of the hole, he had gotten himself into. It was only his personal connection to Hitler that saw him given this command. Where he proceeded to ignore his orders, and drag Germany into a fight that they couldn’t afford or supply.

ITTL there will be another consideration that there wasn’t IOTL, the comparative strength of the British armour compared to the German. Experience in France and the results of the investigations made on captured British equipment, by the Germans, will show that only the Panzer III and IV, stand any chance of going toe to toe with the British armour. The Panzer I, is a death trap, and can not stand up to ether the British armour, or British anti tank guns, including the obsolete Boys anti tank rifle. The Panzer II, while again susceptible to all the British tanks and anti tank guns, including the Boys, will however be useful as a tracked reconnaissance vehicle. The III and IV, provided they are up armoured and preferably armed, can take on their British counterparts. This means that the Germans will have to send a different mix of tanks, to the one they sent IOTL. And the Germans were short of tanks, they hadn’t set up for a long war on multiple fronts, they were set up for quick campaigns in Europe, followed by a long recovery. Every Panzer III or IV, sent to North Africa, is one not available for the Soviet Union.

In addition the British have an advantage over the Germans that is often overlooked, much better medical services. The British Army had been serving in North Africa for close on sixty years by 1940, in peace and war, it had institutional knowledge of the medical needs of the area. The Germans have never served in a desert region, their colonies in Africa were to the south. It was noted IOTL, that the Germans suffered a high rate of sickness in comparison to the British. And that fact will not change in this TL. Nor did the Germans develop a love of the deep desert, in the way that the British did. There was no German equivalent of the LRDG, running around behind the British lines, in the way that various groups were running around behind the German/Italian lines.

So will the Germans intervene in North Africa, my personal opinion, yes they have to, if they want to keep their alliance with the Italians intact, and not have major problems with the French. What is then the most important question is who the Germans send to the area as their commander, and what he decides to do. Anyone other than Rommel, will as he was ordered to, try to form a defensive line east of Tripoli, and hold off the British. Rommel being the man he was, will try to attack, and drive the British back to the delta. However this time he might come a cropper, and find himself driven to the east, and forced to take up defensive positions in the French Mareth Line . This will see the British forced to take a deep breath, while they endeavour to improve the Port of Tripoli, and easy their supply lines, deal with the outcome of the invasion of Greece and Crete, hopefully held. Along with deal with the increasing clamour from Australia to reenforce Singapore, in view of the increasing threat from Japan. If by the late summer of 41, the British have captured Tripoli and are in a stand of with the Germans along the Mareth Line, have lost in Greece but retained Crete. And are in a position to reenforce Singapore to some extent, sufficient that when the Japanese eventually invade, they can retain Singapore, and thus also Burma the Japanese being focused on the Malay Peninsula. This will change fundamental the relationship between Britain and America for the rest of the war.

RR.
 
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As usual. Ramp rat makes a number of interesting points.
A couple of observations though.
First, the germens were loath to tailor assets to needs, as in dropping Pz I and moving Pz II to recon and adding extra Pz III and PZ IV. There was a standard organization and they stayed with it. It simplified supply and it ensured that all commanders knew what they had available to work with. If you were given a Medium Pz Ko under command, you knew what you had. Standard building blocks. They were extremely reluctant to issue KStN z Bv or as we would call them, organizations for special purposes.
Second, Vichy France!
They had not yet signed a peace treaty and the Armistice terms were in force, That meant that the Germans and the Italians could send inspectors but not formed bodies of troops. Just watch the opening scenes of Casablanca! For all their dislike or in some cases hatred of Perfidious Albion, they were also very conscious of the Honour of France!! To allow the Germans to pile across the border and occupy the Mareth lines to defend against the British without so much as a by your leave would have caused immense problems. The Germans were the ones after all who had overrun France and forced her to a humiliating surrender. Dakar had happened and France had shown they were willing to defend their territory. How could they do anything less when the Germans want to take over the Mareth lines?
And don't forget the USA was sending food convoys to Vichy France. Because they were now out of the war and were a "Neutral"! If they now allowed the Germans to use their own fortifications against the British Commonwealth Forces, then they become a combatant. And that would not play out well for France in the USA! Plucky and defiant Britain forces the dastardly Nazis back and the French allow them to use French fortifications? Whose side are those French on, anyway?
 
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