German intervention in North Africa.
Given events taking place in North Africa, the Germans face a dilemma, to intervene or not. Let us look first at the first option, not intervening. North Africa holds little strategic importance for German at present, and will be a diversion from their present focus of effort, the invasion of Soviet Russia. Other than to bolster their Allie Italy, there is no reason for them to get involved, and many reasons for them not to. It will require the allocation of significant resources, resources that they are at present short of, particularly motor vehicles, tanks and oil. The motor vehicles sent to support the Africa Coups, would have been far more useful to the Army in the upcoming conflict in the Soviet Union. Well that’s if the Germans have the fuel for them, but without the North African commitment, Germany will have more oil to use in Russia. Note it’s not only the ground units that you have to send, there is also the air units, that could too have been much better used in the east against the Soviet Union. The problem with non intervention is what to do about French North Africa, if you don’t intervene, the British will eventually take over French North Africa. And the Vichy French will not be happy about this.
So as we can see while non intervention has many advantages for the Germans, it isn’t really a viable choice. Thus the Germans have to decide what sort and type of intervention to engage in, complete, and attempt to throw the British out of North Africa, or minimal that just aims to basically hold the line at Tripoli. And prevent the British from taking over French North Africa, with the minimal expenditure of resources by the Germans. Given the upcoming action against the Soviet Union, the is being planned for right now, the Germans are going to want the minimum intervention that they can get away with, which is what they planned for IOTL. However Rommel, who wasn’t sent to the area because he was regarded by the signor Germany military commanders as brilliant, if he was he would have been picked for a role in the Russian invasion. He was regarded as unreliable, and wont to ignore orders and get himself and his command into situations that required others to dig him out of the hole, he had gotten himself into. It was only his personal connection to Hitler that saw him given this command. Where he proceeded to ignore his orders, and drag Germany into a fight that they couldn’t afford or supply.
ITTL there will be another consideration that there wasn’t IOTL, the comparative strength of the British armour compared to the German. Experience in France and the results of the investigations made on captured British equipment, by the Germans, will show that only the Panzer III and IV, stand any chance of going toe to toe with the British armour. The Panzer I, is a death trap, and can not stand up to ether the British armour, or British anti tank guns, including the obsolete Boys anti tank rifle. The Panzer II, while again susceptible to all the British tanks and anti tank guns, including the Boys, will however be useful as a tracked reconnaissance vehicle. The III and IV, provided they are up armoured and preferably armed, can take on their British counterparts. This means that the Germans will have to send a different mix of tanks, to the one they sent IOTL. And the Germans were short of tanks, they hadn’t set up for a long war on multiple fronts, they were set up for quick campaigns in Europe, followed by a long recovery. Every Panzer III or IV, sent to North Africa, is one not available for the Soviet Union.
In addition the British have an advantage over the Germans that is often overlooked, much better medical services. The British Army had been serving in North Africa for close on sixty years by 1940, in peace and war, it had institutional knowledge of the medical needs of the area. The Germans have never served in a desert region, their colonies in Africa were to the south. It was noted IOTL, that the Germans suffered a high rate of sickness in comparison to the British. And that fact will not change in this TL. Nor did the Germans develop a love of the deep desert, in the way that the British did. There was no German equivalent of the LRDG, running around behind the British lines, in the way that various groups were running around behind the German/Italian lines.
So will the Germans intervene in North Africa, my personal opinion, yes they have to, if they want to keep their alliance with the Italians intact, and not have major problems with the French. What is then the most important question is who the Germans send to the area as their commander, and what he decides to do. Anyone other than Rommel, will as he was ordered to, try to form a defensive line east of Tripoli, and hold off the British. Rommel being the man he was, will try to attack, and drive the British back to the delta. However this time he might come a cropper, and find himself driven to the east, and forced to take up defensive positions in the French Mareth Line . This will see the British forced to take a deep breath, while they endeavour to improve the Port of Tripoli, and easy their supply lines, deal with the outcome of the invasion of Greece and Crete, hopefully held. Along with deal with the increasing clamour from Australia to reenforce Singapore, in view of the increasing threat from Japan. If by the late summer of 41, the British have captured Tripoli and are in a stand of with the Germans along the Mareth Line, have lost in Greece but retained Crete. And are in a position to reenforce Singapore to some extent, sufficient that when the Japanese eventually invade, they can retain Singapore, and thus also Burma the Japanese being focused on the Malay Peninsula. This will change fundamental the relationship between Britain and America for the rest of the war.
RR.