Remember the Texas! The United States in World War II (an alternate history)

ALL USN battleships after the New York class had their AAA upgraded to the 5"/25 in the late 20s/early 30s in place of the 3"/50. The 5"25 were in addition to the 5"/51 casement guns that were being gradually replaced during refit.
those 5 inch /25s did fairly respectively against the torpedo bombers, but had a harder time with the dive bombers. The 3 inch guns were in suppliment to the 5/25 according to what I could divine from Pacific War online
 
authors notes: This isn't Pearl Harbor but the effect in a lot of ways is similar. Battleships are proven to be too vulnerable without fighter cover (yet again) as 5 major warships were sunk because of air attack (2 US, 3 German) and while the UBoats acheived 2 mission kills, they are going to be overshadowed by the results of the air battle which in addition to sinking those 5 major warships also achieved mission kills on 4 more.

Which Admiral King and the Japanese will observe closely once they get the results. Although the Japanese seem to take the entire war OTL to digest Pearl Harbor and Midway so no sudden changes in doctrine for them. Everyone is about to add a LOT more AAA to their ships over the next 2 years and the carriers, while not decisive, did produce useful support for the battle fleet. Which is not exactly the same effect as Pearl Harbor.

Hilter nearly scrapped his surface navy twice... but Raeder talked him out of it. Only the embarrassment of scrapping his fancy ships prevents there loss this time, and there are Ore Convoys from Sweden to guard in the Baltic after all.

This will also make the Italians very very nervous about risking their remaining heavy ships...

HItler will claim 3 kills, the Allies will claim 3 kills, and they are reasonable accurate claims based on the information they have. Better than usual ratio of truth versus fiction in a World War 2 naval battle.
 
Death of the German Fleet
Meanwhile the two German battlecruisers, with only 4 destroyers and 8 Eboats as their escort and covered by 32 fighters overheard are approaching the Straits of Gibraltar and Admiral Ramsey’s waiting forces. American and British strike aircraft are also waiting, having assembled over Kent with their substantial fighter escort.
No way for Spain to reclaim Gibraltar. The Brits have placed it close to Kent. Game lost.

Sorry, GB, I couldn't resist...
 
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The first to reach their targets are the Conders, which manage several hits although many of the aircraft are damaged and 2 are splashed by British gunners. They succeed in sinking 1 sloop and 3 minesweepers and damaging nearly all of the others to various degrees but the attack has knocked the German bombers out of the battle as they are ill suited to attacking warships. The light cruiser Scylla is undamaged by this attack but once again amateur ship identification results in the leading force of 24 JU88s incorrectly identifying her as a battleship and an attack on her results in 3 hits and major damage and numerous near misses. She and the remainder of her charges continue west before turning north for the Irish Sea as darkness falls.
Ok seriously, did the Germans invent smart bombs or something? Because how in the hell did high altitude level bombers score that many hits in a maneuvering fleet at sea?!
 
Yes, but it's still about two years too early for that.
Ok, you got me there. I honestly forgot about Fritz X. But still, the point stands. For that level of hits from level bombers on a maneuvering fleet at sea, you would need something like a JDAM to be effective. Maybe a LGB if you have enough aircraft to illuminate the targets.
 

McPherson

Banned
Bear in mind that this is opinion. YMMV and it should.

Morning November 13 Force Z, the Channel Dash and the Raid on St Nazaire
The various naval forces now face a new day and the weather is changing. A Cold Front has come down off the North Atlantic and is already clearing away clouds and dropping temperatures over Britain, northern France and the English Channel. The leading edge which passed over night has mostly cleared all but the eastern edge of the Bay of Biscay, and seas are starting to moderate there and in the Channel, dropping from 4 meter seas down to a 2 meter seas. As dawn breaks, the skies have cleared from heavy clouds to partly cloudy conditions everywhere but along the French coast south of Lorient. These clouds are still hiding Force Y and its supporting minesweepers as well as the two southern U Boat groups. All of the other naval forces and the airfields that will impact them now have good weather.


One knows that Wurzburg and Freya had surface search mode? CVs put up a CAP they will be seen in real time?
The first to launch aircraft are the Allied carriers, which send 35 TBD and 36 SBD to ferry to the RAF Coastal Command base at Manston while the British carriers launch 32 Fulmer fighters to provide a combat air patrol over Force Z. The carriers follow with a launch of 12 Swordfish, 6 Albacore, 6 Fulmer fighters, and 30 SBD which begin providing ASW and Air Search patrols around the carrier force and for the American aircraft, longer range scouting patrols as the carriers complete their air operations at 0700 hours and turn to the southwest to move into position to provide cover for Force Y. They make their turn just 30 miles from the southern Scilly Islands and are churning through the seas at 29 knots, the best speed for the USS Wasp. At the same time, Coastal Command Beaufighters take off from southern England with 16 heading for Force Y and the remainder escorting Hudson patrol bombers over the Bay of Biscay to look for the German Uboats that might threaten the battleship groups, while the RAF Coastal Command strike force from Southern England takes off with 56 Beaufort torpedo bombers and 36 Bleinheim fighters. RAF Fighter Command launches 36 Spitfires to link up and provide fighter cover for this force. Another 36 torpedo armed Swordfish are preparing for operations at Manston, and 48 Spitfires are assigned to provide them cover when they and the American strike aircraft are ready to attack in the late morning.
Here are a few klinkers.

a. Fulmars instead of Wildcats for CAP?
b. It was common USN practice to use the Dauntless as part of an anti-torpedo plane patrol at low altitude, while saving the limited Buffaloes and Wildcats for dive bombers. The Dauntless was designed to be used that way.
c. What is the sea state in the Bay of Biscay? What are the prevailing winds? This missing data is important as I have rarely seen any flattop in WWII do book flank in the Atlantic without serious pitch and yaw issues for wind and wave are rarely parallel there. For example, the USS Ranger rarely exceeded 25 knots in a speed run into the wind. She tended to banjo.
c. No way to get that 35 TBD and 36 SBD over Cerberus Force after a touchdown and refuel? It would be a good way to retrieve this operation if Ciliax can be hammer and anvilled just off Calais.
d. Beaufighters? Why are they out"? Hudsons for ASW probably need single engine fighter cover (Wildcat?) that is better than a Beaufighter *(Suggest Mosquitos if available if using RAF assets for that mission.). The Beaufighter is AShW oriented. Blenheims? Ugh. LW meat on the table. Spitfires have 90 minutes tops air endurance. They lack reach.
The Royal Navy is also hurriedly preparing. Admiral Ramsey has 32 torpedo boats in position to attack when the Germans reach Dover, and in addition he has 6 destroyers of the Harwich Force in position to support that attack. His plan is to launch a combined assault with boats, destroyers and strike aircraft when the Germans reach Dover. Further north, Admiral Tovey has the Home Fleet and he orders the King George V, the Prince of Wales, Duke of York and Renown, along with cruisers and destroyers to steam on an intercept course at their best speed of 28 knots. This is a calculated risk as there is some change the Germans will send the Tirpitz and the 2 pocket battleships out but after discussion in the wee hours, Churchill, Pound and Tovey determine that this is an acceptable one as PQ 3 is already in Russian waters, while PQ 4 has not yet completed assembling at Iceland.
e. I have yet to see at this stage of the war, a RIKKO and SAG operate together. I am simming in an ATL for such an operation for Operation Merry Christmas You Bastards. There are real world problems with rendezvous times, radio communications, target identification, recon, navigation and just interoperability air to sea that makes the op very iffy. Expect limited success at best. Hit Ciliax with air power, clear the boards and then send in the PT boats and destroyers to kill the cripples. Also, drop mines in front of the Germans!
f. Time from Scapa to Dover is 30 hours at 28 knots. Tovey will be out of fuel when he gets there and Ciliax will be past him off the Dutch coast headed for German waters.
g. Dudley Pound is incompetent. He will okay f.. Tovey was not an idiot.
The Germans are also launching their aircraft and preparing for battle. First to leave are 8 Eboats out of Cherbourg and Le Havre to provide additional support to the German fleet. As dawn breaks, the Luftwaffe aircraft along the Channel Coast take off, with 16 fighters moving into position over the German fleet, while 30 dive bombers with 32 fighters fly toward the American Force Z. A second group of 25 He111s with torpedoes along with 28 fighters has some problems assembling but is soon on its way, about 30 minutes behind the first group. Weather in Lorient initially prevents the take off of the float plane torpedo bombers, but the dive bombers, consisting of 2 groups of 27 JU88s, along with 16 Me110s takes off at around the same time and also heads toward Force Z, with the 12 torpedo bombers finally getting up about an hour later and in the poorer weather conditions over that part of France their assigned escort of 24 fighters fails to locate them in the low clouds and decides to fly out to the American fleet in hopes of meeting them at that point.
h. Crete success was based on motionless targets or straight running non-maneuvering ships. The Pacific War showed that maneuvering ships were hard to hit. US dive bomber pilots, the BEST on Earth, were getting 15% PH against aircraft carrier-sized targets in 1942. German torpedo bombers in 1941 were a joke. Any Italians present?
It is not until nearly 0800 that a patrol plane spots the Allied minesweepers and then the battleships approaching St Nazaire, and by that point the bulk of the German air strikes have already left for their missions. The Allied carriers do not launch again until 0930 hours, when they turn into the wind and send out 12 Buffaloes, 12 Wildcats and 12 Fulmers to provide cover for Force Y.
i. Radar. St Nazaire site should detect Standards out to 40 km. Need to also remark that CVs putting aircraft up means 160 km and the Germans should be scrambling anything with wings that they have local. Of course the seacoast gun defenses will be manned and ready.
Air attacks on Force Z
The American force consists of 5 battleships, 1 light cruiser and 4 destroyers and has 36 RN Fulmer fighters overhead when the first German air attack, consisting of dive bombers and fighters arrives. The German FW190 fighters although outnumbered 32 to 36, quickly scatter the British fighters, downing 10 and damaging most of the rest which flee to England (and 6 more crash on the way and 8 more are write offs). No German fighters are lost, and the dive bombers are free to attack unmolested. The American ships are seriously deficient in light antiaircraft guns, and the rate of fire on their 5 inch and 3 inch guns is insufficient to fully engage the German dive bombers. The German accuracy is excellent, with 8 bomb hits smashing into the West Virginia and 5 more hitting the Maryland, which are the two largest American ships present. Although no damage is down to propulsion and the ships maintain control, casualties are serious and their upper works are severely mauled. Among the dead is Admiral Kimmel, as three bombs hit the bridge of the West Virginia killing him and the ships captain and many other officers. An African American mess attendant, Doris Miller, will win the Navy Cross for his efforts to save his captain and then manning a heavy machine gun after its crew were killed. Admiral Bagley aboard the Nevada orders the fleet to make full speed toward Plymouth so that it can more rapidly reach British fighter recover and support is asked for. The RAF responds with 36 Spitfires which arrive just as the second Luftwaffe attack force of torpedo bombers and fighters arrives. This force is successfully engaged (6 RAF fighters, 3 Luftwaffe fighters and 8 torpedo bombers shot down) and the American antiaircraft is far more successful against the torpedo bombers, splashing another 4 and damaging most of the rest. German accuracy is excellent considering the opposition however, and 4 torpedoes hit the California which rapidly takes on a dangerous list and begins to abandon ship, while one each hit the West Virginia and Maryland. This slows the fleet to 15 knots and the California is left behind while Royal Navy small craft head toward her as she eventually founders 40 miles south southwest of Plymouth.
k. While the Fulmars will be slaughtered, I expect the FAA pilots will RAM if they have to, to defend their charges below. USN pilots would and did. I expect no less from the RN FAA.
l. Pushover for a Stuka was about 4,000 meters and pull-out was about 1,000 meters (60-70 degree dive). That is .50 cal range at pullout. Worse is that the dive is 30-45 seconds depending on angle of dive. A Standard in a hard turn can in 30 seconds throw the aim point out by 240 meters. The Stuka was not noted for Dauntless like flap and tail control correction. The Stuka is a land warfare bird after all. The Ju-88 is even worse. Those birds have a shallower attack angle, are longer in the dive (60 seconds at about 45 degrees) and far more vulnerable to mid band AAA which is what the US 5/25 was designed to defeat.
m. German aerial torpedoes have a 50% dud rate until improved in 1943.
n. From Pearl Harbor, a Standard yoked up, should be able to take three to four LW type torpedoes and still stay afloat. I account the USS California's loss due to her incompetent captain and damage control officer. Both I presume will be court martialed, as they should have been at Pearl Harbor.

The final German attack by Ju88 dive bombers, and again the timely arrival of RAF fighters is critical. However German bombing is still outstanding, with every one of the battleships being hit. The Nevada, New Mexico and Maryland each take 3 hits, the West Virginia takes two more hits, and in error, the Germans hit the California with 12 bombs, hastening her sinking. The battered Force Z makes port in late morning and suffers no further attacks. American dead are nearly 2,000, including the commanding Admiral, and 5 battleships are seriously to severely damaged, while one has been lost. The Germans lose a total of 50 aircraft (and the RAF and RN a similar number between them) and the US Navy has suffered a severe defeat. But in doing so they have acted as bait and a diversion for Force Y which is now in position at 0900 hours to open fire on St Nazaire and its important Normandie dock.
o. Note that I have found no incident on WWII record to show such a result against maneuvering ships, barring GUIDED WEAPONS. Even the German Fritz X attacks did not achieve these results.
The RAF is not idle while this is going on. In addition to fighter support for the badly mangled Force Z, the first attack on the German Fleet is launched at the same time. The 92 RAF aircraft reach the German fleet at 0915 hours, and while the standing patrol of Fw190 fighters wrecks the Bleinheim fighters (shooting down 12 of them, and badly damaging nearly all the rest) they are distracted so that the torpedo bombers are unopposed by fighters and able to make effective attacks. Both of the German battle cruisers take a hit each, although their torpedo belt prevents serious damage, but the cruiser Prinz Eugen is singled out and is smothered by 8 torpedoes and rolls over and sinks with most of her crew by 0937. The belated arrive of Spitfires provides cover for the torpedo bombers to escape (having lost 6 of their number to antiaircraft fire) and the surviving Blenheims and holds off the second wave of German Me109s that had arrived to reinforce the FW190s. The Germans lose 5 fighters, the RAF another 3, and for a brief time Admiral Ciriax is able to mourn his lost cruiser and her crew.
p. Hmm. RAF tactics are incompetent. Send in a wave of fighters ahead of the torpedo bombers to strafe and suppress the German shipboard AAA (Blenheims?). The Alpha should have been flak suppressors followed by the TBs and with Spitfire top-cover all as a single package. A strike coordinator would have marked the flag or failing that option, would have gone for Gniesenau and swamped her, sunk her and then RTBed for another go at Scharnhorst in a second package. Boy, the allies are incompetent. In the interlude, British PTs and destroyers should have a go.
Further to the south and west, near the entrance of the Irish Sea, the USS Mississippi and her destroyer escort are met by a flotilla of British destroyers out of Liverpool and Sloops from Bristol, which engage and sink the U131 and U574 which were nearly in attack position on the US battleship. By 1100 hours the American ship is steaming north toward Belfast so that she can begin repairs.
q. Score one for USS Mississippi.
The attack on St Nazaire.
The Germans are manning their 4-280 mm guns and ready when the Allied battleships steam within range at 0915 hours, although they are facing an unequal struggle. The Allies have 24-15 inch guns and 18 -14 inch guns and due to aerial reconnaissance and human intelligence work know exactly where the German guns, the critically important drydock and the construction site for the new submarine pens are located. The British ships concentrate on the drydock (Revenge and Ramilies) and the construction site (Resolution) while the American ships keep the German heavy guns under fire. Although the Germans score 2 hits on the Idaho and 4 on the Oklahoma, they and the other targets are smothered by a total of 2500 shells which convert the target areas into a moonscape over the course of 3 hours before the ships turn and run for home. Although the Germans have inflicted casualties and some damage to the American ships, they failed to achieve serious results and the 100 American dead are well worth the cost as the Normandie dock is effectively destroyed.
r. Hmmm. I think 2500 high capacity shells would have been better spent on smashing up the harbor infrastructure. Also the Americans are cycling 14 shells per minute from 18 barrels. That is unusually fast for shore bombardment.
Meanwhile Allied carrier aircraft and RAF Coastal Command have forced the two groups of German Uboats in the area to remain submerged and even as the weather clears at noon and the Allies are steaming away the Uboats are out of position and unable to interfere. The Allies have achieved one of their major objectives and Admiral Pye is pleased.
s. Admiral Pye, if that drydock was only shelled, should be court martialed. Drydocks are difficult targets to neutralize by bombs or gunfire. Pearl Harbor lesson learned. There was a reason, the British packed a four stacker to the gunwales with explosives, rammed the drydock gate and blew it all up.
authors notes:
The German coastal guns can inflict damage but only until they are smothered by fire and 11 inch rounds are not going to inflict much crippling damage to a US Standard battleship. The Texas suffered hits and barely noticed.
t. Depends. At terminal at 25,000 to 40,000 meters the plunging fire can penetrate 75 mm of deck armor.
Dive bombers, as mentioned above, did not kill battleships in World War 2, but they can and did inflict 'mission kills' which they have done above. Torpedoes kill battleships, and have on this occasion. The Americans and Germans do have fairly effective fighter cover but even so numbers will tell. Coordinating that fighter cover is a challenge at this point in the war (which is why Galland was pretty impressive in OTL Operation Cerebus) and leakers or even substantial attacks will almost always get through, as they have done here.
u. Musashi and Yamato. Burn down and kaboom. Torpedoes hurried it along, but they were kaput from dive bombing.
Submarines rarely succeed in any kind of fleet engagement, although there are of course obvious exceptions (Leyte Gulf, Philippine Sea) but generally its more a matter of a surprise ambush than trying to run down a moving fleet.
v. ??? Most of the sinkings in the Battle of the Philippine Sea and a significant % of Leyte Gulf were submarine kills as mentioned. And there is the I-19 which had the best day, any IJN sub ever had.
However the Luftwaffe is about to get revenge for the hammering inflicted on St Nazaire and the British have two more chances at the twins....

see below for additional authors notes

Kimmel gets to be a dead hero
w. Kimmel will be cursed for the incompetent fool he is in this action.
model was based on German bombing accuracy at Crete... and German torpedo bombers on the Arctic convoys

Here, 90 dive bombers total, scoring 25 hits on moving ships and 12 on a helpless one. Discounting the 30 that bombed the California, that is 60 bombers scoring roughly 45% hits, which is within reason (and some lucky dice too for the Germans when I gamed it). In the dive bombing attacks, the Germans were unopposed by fighters as their fighter cover held off the Allied fighter cover. The torpedo bombers consisting of 25 aircraft lose roughly 15 going in but 20 manage to drop their fish, scoring 4 hits (20% accuracy). Which is in line with World War II experience elsewhere. Only a quarter of those aircraft remain flyable after the battle. Which is again in line with World War 2 experiences elsewhere. The 12 float plane torpedo bombers have yet to attack, and although not yet mentioned, managed to fail to find the enemy and have returned to refuel.
x. Have commented on the Crete data.
Rough day for the torpedo bomber crews though

the 5/25 and 3 inch guns just cannot train quickly enough on dive bombers to get many hits leaving the heavy machine guns as the only point defense (and are too short ranged). The US Navy is at a historic weak point for its AAA defense. That changes massively of course
y. Not according to Pearl Harbor results.
So the British carriers up up their fighters, but the U.S. carrier did not? To have 36 Fulmars over Force Z the Victorious would need to launch her entire airwing, and be reinforced by six fighters from Ark Royal (or some combination of aircraft from the two decks since Victorious is carrying 30 Fulmars, and Ark Royal has 18 on board for a total of 48 Fulmars). Both Wasp and Yorktown have full Wildcat squadrons on board (27 aircraft in each), the Wildcat has marginally better range than the Fulmar clean and close to double the Fulmar with a pair of drop tanks (which the F4F-3 was plumbed for), and the Grumman is 50mph faster.
z. I kind of find that math puzzling especially as that is not usual FAA practice. Nor would the USN CTF sail into battle without a F4F and SBD CAP of its own. See my previous comments.
As an aside, I have a hard time seeing FAA fighter pilots scattering and running, outmatched or not. There is zero chance a USN/USMC squadron would do that, as can be seen by the Marines flying the F2A over Midway against A6M, or an RAF Fighter Command squadron scattering even if to was outnumbered 4:1 and flying Hurricanes against Fw-190s. Hell, the FAA pilots took Gladiators up against the Luftwaffe.
a1. Agreed.
 
The US Navy at War October-December 1941
Battle of the Atlantic October-December 1941
Nimitz, commanding Atlantic Fleet, is a persuasive and charismatic man, and has an easier time with Roosevelt and the Army than his predecessor King had. By October he has managed to trade the Army Air Force access to long range bombers immediately for the Air Force getting out of the ASW mission,, and that has netted him 30 B17s (plus 9 more transferred back from the British), plus Army Air Force strips the 6th, 43rd and 30th Bomb Groups of their LB30/B24s (nearly 100 in all) for the Navy to use, and by late November sufficient air crew have been trained in their use for some of them to begin patrols in the Caribbean and near Iceland. Another 200 B18 Bolos leave the Army and although initially using borrowed Army crews, can begin local patrols off the Atlantic Coast right way. Another 300 of the Martin Baltimore which had been slated for Lend Lease are transferred to the Navy for ASW work, along with the entire production run planned for the PV2 Harpoon. Most of these aircraft will not be available before 1942, and indeed another 1,000 B24s will join the Navy as well, but most will not show up before late 1942 and early 1943. But by the end of December, over 400 aircraft are available to patrol American coastal and regional waters and provide some support into the Atlantic. The Army even gives the Navy the B18s currently in Hawaii for local patrols. Most of the Army personnel will go to other groups working up, are reequipped with medium bombers as they become available. Hap Arnold is relieved to be able to concentrate on what he thinks is important, the eventual strategic bombing offensive against Germany.

The US Navy has other forces available as well. The US Coast Guard provides 21 cutters (basically equal to a British corvette or sloop depending on size), and 61 submarine chasers (useful for inshore patrol and rescue work), with 6 more cutters commissioning or working up and 30 armed yachts fitting out and working up (which adds another 36 sloop types). Additional yachts are being acquired, and the Coast Guard has plans to lay down additional (and more modern) cutters as well. This provides 82 escort ships for Iceland, the Eastern Sea Frontier plus the already 41 obsolete but useful Wilkes/Clemson class and 56 minesweepers already assigned to those areas (although 4 of the destroyers are usually patrolling the Pacific side of Panama) plus the 4 light cruisers patrolling the Pacific side and 4 additional old destroyers that escort them. By December Nimitz has managed to end attacks on US coastal shipping in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean is only seeing sporadic attacks. After November and the end of Operation Chariot, an additional 9 destroyers joins the Atlantic Fleet from US Forces Europe, and he has all but relegated the old battleships New York and Arkansas to training ships in Chesapeake Bay to free up large numbers of useful experienced personnel. Both of his carriers have been sent to US Navy Europe, along with their escorts, and he has to say good bye to the Yorktown and its escorts in December when it is sent to the West Coast. However that still gives him around 45 destroyers for Atlantic duty of which 30 are usually available (the rest refitting). German Uboats sink only 90 ships (around 500,000 tons total) during the Fall, in part due to poor weather but also because of the distraction of Operation Chariot and improved American defenses.

All of these extra ships and aircraft make the creation of coastal convoys practical and routine by October and losses plummet as targets have been hardened in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and American Atlantic Coast. Once again the convoy shows its value.

On December 1, 1941, Admiral Nimitz is promoted out of his job as commander of Atlantic Fleet and made Chief of Naval Operations and Commander in Chief US Fleet after Admiral Stark is sent to replace Admiral Kimmel in Britain and Admiral Pye is given command of Battle Force Atlantic, which has only 6 battleships (all under repair or refitting) and responsibility for overseeing their modernization. The first thing Nimitz does is request Admiral Thomas Hart as Commander, US Submarine Forces and have him sent to Washington to take charge of this critical arm. The previous commander retires and is placed on the Navy Board.

The Pacific Fleet Fall 1941
Admiral King is gravely alarmed at the weak state of the US Navy in the Pacific but is careful in his criticism and requests. He does manage to get the carrier Yorktown along with Admiral Newton and 4 cruisers and 9 destroyers sent to the Pacific, as well as 18 newly completed, commissioned and worked up destroyers as they become available October-December 1941 (although several arrive in January 1942) and every available fleet oiler. His biggest coup however is the disestablishment of the Asiatic Fleet, and creation of US Naval Forces Far East which is a much smaller in size and authority, and which also falls under his operational command. He immediately orders 23 Fleet submarines to Pearl Harbor as he feels Cavite is hopeless to defend in the event of war, and also orders the CA Houston and 4 light cruisers back to Pearl Harbor, along with their 4 destroyers. Along with them 2 tankers and 2 gunboats (both of those are sent to Samoa), and the remaining 21 S Boat submarines are placed under the command of RAdm Thomas Rivers (who supercedes Captains John Wilkes who is slated to take over Submarine squadron 20). This leaves only the heavy cruiser Chester in the far Pacific, and it is operating with the British out of Singapore. He also ruthlessly strips the Philippines of trained personnel (reducing the gunboat crews to less than half strength or less) as well as the 4th Marine Regiment which he sends to Samoa. Admiral Hart is initially angered by this move but his new job overseeing the entire US Navy Submarine Force is a more than a token and he rapidly dives into the role, making his first visit to Pearl Harbor on December 5, 1941.

Vice Admiral Robert Ghormley is made commander US Naval Forces Far East, and also given the principal job of coordinating between the US Pacific Fleet and British and Dutch naval forces in the Far East. Commander of the 16th Naval District, RAdm Thomas Rockwell remains in tactical command of the forces directly assigned to defend the Philippines (gunboats, minesweepers and PT Boats), while a new commander of the submarines based at Pearl is plucked from his job as naval attache in London and RAdm Charles Lockwood arrives in Pearl Harbor with his boss Admiral Hart on December 5. Hart withholds appointing a new ComSubPac for now, letting the current officer, R Adm Henry English keep his job which is to organize and plan a submarine campaign against Japan when war comes as Hart and King feel certain will be at any moment.

The other problem King has is aircraft. He has only around 40 aircraft available for the Philippines, and only (including newly transferred Army bombers) around 100 for Pearl Harbor to conduct patrols with. No more are likely to be forthcoming at present as the Atlantic Fleet has first call until more units are trained up and equipped. However with 4 carriers he is much more confidant about defending the Hawaiian Islands, Alaska and approaches to Panama and feels reasonably certain he can defend the sea lanes to Australia if war breaks out. He is also promised all of the new fleet carriers and new battleships as they are worked up, and indeed within 14 months he will have 6 carriers and 6 fast battleships, enough to fight the Japanese with and even conduct an offensive. King continues to ruthlessly train his ships and crews who spend weeks at a time at sea (mostly in the waters between Hawaii and California) and conducts a fleet problem in late November near Panama. He is still reviewing the initial report of Operation Chariot when the Japanese launch their massive carrier air strike on Wake Island on December 8, 1941.
 
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authors notes: KIng keeps his job as FDR wants someone he trusts in the a Pacific and its important that the CNO can play well with others... so Nimitz gets the job. Hart is kind of authors fiat, but I always felt he got screwed. Which is part why Nimitz gets CNO instead of King. I found a new way to abuse Ghormley Trying this timeline to not forget the US Coast Guard, who I have always had a soft spot for.

With war against Germany underway, Roosevelt has fallen back to War Plan Orange and hopes the Japanese are not going to be foolish. Plus sending the battleships back to the Pacific is no longer an option. Stark takes the fall for that and is sent to the UK, where he will have 4 BB, 2 CV, and some cruisers and destroyers to escort Arctic Convoys with alongside the RN. Stark did well in this role as USN Europe so he keeps his job from OTL.

Yeah, the US is pretty naked in the Far East... but Germany First and that war is already underway.
 

CalBear

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Bear in mind that this is opinion. YMMV and it should.




One knows that Wurzburg and Freya had surface search mode? CVs put up a CAP they will be seen in real time?

Here are a few klinkers.

a. Fulmars instead of Wildcats for CAP?
b. It was common USN practice to use the Dauntless as part of an anti-torpedo plane patrol at low altitude, while saving the limited Buffaloes and Wildcats for dive bombers. The Dauntless was designed to be used that way.
c. What is the sea state in the Bay of Biscay? What are the prevailing winds? This missing data is important as I have rarely seen any flattop in WWII do book flank in the Atlantic without serious pitch and yaw issues for wind and wave are rarely parallel there. For example, the USS Ranger rarely exceeded 25 knots in a speed run into the wind. She tended to banjo.
c. No way to get that 35 TBD and 36 SBD over Cerberus Force after a touchdown and refuel? It would be a good way to retrieve this operation if Ciliax can be hammer and anvilled just off Calais.
d. Beaufighters? Why are they out"? Hudsons for ASW probably need single engine fighter cover (Wildcat?) that is better than a Beaufighter *(Suggest Mosquitos if available if using RAF assets for that mission.). The Beaufighter is AShW oriented. Blenheims? Ugh. LW meat on the table. Spitfires have 90 minutes tops air endurance. They lack reach.

e. I have yet to see at this stage of the war, a RIKKO and SAG operate together. I am simming in an ATL for such an operation for Operation Merry Christmas You Bastards. There are real world problems with rendezvous times, radio communications, target identification, recon, navigation and just interoperability air to sea that makes the op very iffy. Expect limited success at best. Hit Ciliax with air power, clear the boards and then send in the PT boats and destroyers to kill the cripples. Also, drop mines in front of the Germans!
f. Time from Scapa to Dover is 30 hours at 28 knots. Tovey will be out of fuel when he gets there and Ciliax will be past him off the Dutch coast headed for German waters.
g. Dudley Pound is incompetent. He will okay f.. Tovey was not an idiot.

h. Crete success was based on motionless targets or straight running non-maneuvering ships. The Pacific War showed that maneuvering ships were hard to hit. US dive bomber pilots, the BEST on Earth, were getting 15% PH against aircraft carrier-sized targets in 1942. German torpedo bombers in 1941 were a joke. Any Italians present?

i. Radar. St Nazaire site should detect Standards out to 40 km. Need to also remark that CVs putting aircraft up means 160 km and the Germans should be scrambling anything with wings that they have local. Of course the seacoast gun defenses will be manned and ready.

k. While the Fulmars will be slaughtered, I expect the FAA pilots will RAM if they have to, to defend their charges below. USN pilots would and did. I expect no less from the RN FAA.
l. Pushover for a Stuka was about 4,000 meters and pull-out was about 1,000 meters (60-70 degree dive). That is .50 cal range at pullout. Worse is that the dive is 30-45 seconds depending on angle of dive. A Standard in a hard turn can in 30 seconds throw the aim point out by 240 meters. The Stuka was not noted for Dauntless like flap and tail control correction. The Stuka is a land warfare bird after all. The Ju-88 is even worse. Those birds have a shallower attack angle, are longer in the dive (60 seconds at about 45 degrees) and far more vulnerable to mid band AAA which is what the US 5/25 was designed to defeat.
m. German aerial torpedoes have a 50% dud rate until improved in 1943.
n. From Pearl Harbor, a Standard yoked up, should be able to take three to four LW type torpedoes and still stay afloat. I account the USS California's loss due to her incompetent captain and damage control officer. Both I presume will be court martialed, as they should have been at Pearl Harbor.


o. Note that I have found no incident on WWII record to show such a result against maneuvering ships, barring GUIDED WEAPONS. Even the German Fritz X attacks did not achieve these results.

p. Hmm. RAF tactics are incompetent. Send in a wave of fighters ahead of the torpedo bombers to strafe and suppress the German shipboard AAA (Blenheims?). The Alpha should have been flak suppressors followed by the TBs and with Spitfire top-cover all as a single package. A strike coordinator would have marked the flag or failing that option, would have gone for Gniesenau and swamped her, sunk her and then RTBed for another go at Scharnhorst in a second package. Boy, the allies are incompetent. In the interlude, British PTs and destroyers should have a go.

q. Score one for USS Mississippi.

r. Hmmm. I think 2500 high capacity shells would have been better spent on smashing up the harbor infrastructure. Also the Americans are cycling 14 shells per minute from 18 barrels. That is unusually fast for shore bombardment.

s. Admiral Pye, if that drydock was only shelled, should be court martialed. Drydocks are difficult targets to neutralize by bombs or gunfire. Pearl Harbor lesson learned. There was a reason, the British packed a four stacker to the gunwales with explosives, rammed the drydock gate and blew it all up.

t. Depends. At terminal at 25,000 to 40,000 meters the plunging fire can penetrate 75 mm of deck armor.

u. Musashi and Yamato. Burn down and kaboom. Torpedoes hurried it along, but they were kaput from dive bombing.

v. ??? Most of the sinkings in the Battle of the Philippine Sea and a significant % of Leyte Gulf were submarine kills as mentioned. And there is the I-19 which had the best day, any IJN sub ever had.

w. Kimmel will be cursed for the incompetent fool he is in this action.

x. Have commented on the Crete data.

y. Not according to Pearl Harbor results.

z. I kind of find that math puzzling especially as that is not usual FAA practice. Nor would the USN CTF sail into battle without a F4F and SBD CAP of its own. See my previous comments.

a1. Agreed.
It is a good point about the SBD, although I can also see a decision to send them north to get a better chance at the enemy fleet. The SBD as a heavy fighter lasted until they ran into escorted Kates, that was an expensive lesson.

The airwing of the Wasp was already pretty screwy with 45 fighter (27 F2A and 18 USMC F4F-3), and 36 TBD with no scout or bombing squadrons at all.
 
Bear in mind that this is opinion. YMMV and it should.




One knows that Wurzburg and Freya had surface search mode? CVs put up a CAP they will be seen in real time?

Here are a few klinkers.

a. Fulmars instead of Wildcats for CAP?
b. It was common USN practice to use the Dauntless as part of an anti-torpedo plane patrol at low altitude, while saving the limited Buffaloes and Wildcats for dive bombers. The Dauntless was designed to be used that way.
c. What is the sea state in the Bay of Biscay? What are the prevailing winds? This missing data is important as I have rarely seen any flattop in WWII do book flank in the Atlantic without serious pitch and yaw issues for wind and wave are rarely parallel there. For example, the USS Ranger rarely exceeded 25 knots in a speed run into the wind. She tended to banjo.
c. No way to get that 35 TBD and 36 SBD over Cerberus Force after a touchdown and refuel? It would be a good way to retrieve this operation if Ciliax can be hammer and anvilled just off Calais.
d. Beaufighters? Why are they out"? Hudsons for ASW probably need single engine fighter cover (Wildcat?) that is better than a Beaufighter *(Suggest Mosquitos if available if using RAF assets for that mission.). The Beaufighter is AShW oriented. Blenheims? Ugh. LW meat on the table. Spitfires have 90 minutes tops air endurance. They lack reach.

e. I have yet to see at this stage of the war, a RIKKO and SAG operate together. I am simming in an ATL for such an operation for Operation Merry Christmas You Bastards. There are real world problems with rendezvous times, radio communications, target identification, recon, navigation and just interoperability air to sea that makes the op very iffy. Expect limited success at best. Hit Ciliax with air power, clear the boards and then send in the PT boats and destroyers to kill the cripples. Also, drop mines in front of the Germans!
f. Time from Scapa to Dover is 30 hours at 28 knots. Tovey will be out of fuel when he gets there and Ciliax will be past him off the Dutch coast headed for German waters.
g. Dudley Pound is incompetent. He will okay f.. Tovey was not an idiot.

h. Crete success was based on motionless targets or straight running non-maneuvering ships. The Pacific War showed that maneuvering ships were hard to hit. US dive bomber pilots, the BEST on Earth, were getting 15% PH against aircraft carrier-sized targets in 1942. German torpedo bombers in 1941 were a joke. Any Italians present?

i. Radar. St Nazaire site should detect Standards out to 40 km. Need to also remark that CVs putting aircraft up means 160 km and the Germans should be scrambling anything with wings that they have local. Of course the seacoast gun defenses will be manned and ready.

k. While the Fulmars will be slaughtered, I expect the FAA pilots will RAM if they have to, to defend their charges below. USN pilots would and did. I expect no less from the RN FAA.
l. Pushover for a Stuka was about 4,000 meters and pull-out was about 1,000 meters (60-70 degree dive). That is .50 cal range at pullout. Worse is that the dive is 30-45 seconds depending on angle of dive. A Standard in a hard turn can in 30 seconds throw the aim point out by 240 meters. The Stuka was not noted for Dauntless like flap and tail control correction. The Stuka is a land warfare bird after all. The Ju-88 is even worse. Those birds have a shallower attack angle, are longer in the dive (60 seconds at about 45 degrees) and far more vulnerable to mid band AAA which is what the US 5/25 was designed to defeat.
m. German aerial torpedoes have a 50% dud rate until improved in 1943.
n. From Pearl Harbor, a Standard yoked up, should be able to take three to four LW type torpedoes and still stay afloat. I account the USS California's loss due to her incompetent captain and damage control officer. Both I presume will be court martialed, as they should have been at Pearl Harbor.


o. Note that I have found no incident on WWII record to show such a result against maneuvering ships, barring GUIDED WEAPONS. Even the German Fritz X attacks did not achieve these results.

p. Hmm. RAF tactics are incompetent. Send in a wave of fighters ahead of the torpedo bombers to strafe and suppress the German shipboard AAA (Blenheims?). The Alpha should have been flak suppressors followed by the TBs and with Spitfire top-cover all as a single package. A strike coordinator would have marked the flag or failing that option, would have gone for Gniesenau and swamped her, sunk her and then RTBed for another go at Scharnhorst in a second package. Boy, the allies are incompetent. In the interlude, British PTs and destroyers should have a go.

q. Score one for USS Mississippi.

r. Hmmm. I think 2500 high capacity shells would have been better spent on smashing up the harbor infrastructure. Also the Americans are cycling 14 shells per minute from 18 barrels. That is unusually fast for shore bombardment.

s. Admiral Pye, if that drydock was only shelled, should be court martialed. Drydocks are difficult targets to neutralize by bombs or gunfire. Pearl Harbor lesson learned. There was a reason, the British packed a four stacker to the gunwales with explosives, rammed the drydock gate and blew it all up.

t. Depends. At terminal at 25,000 to 40,000 meters the plunging fire can penetrate 75 mm of deck armor.

u. Musashi and Yamato. Burn down and kaboom. Torpedoes hurried it along, but they were kaput from dive bombing.

v. ??? Most of the sinkings in the Battle of the Philippine Sea and a significant % of Leyte Gulf were submarine kills as mentioned. And there is the I-19 which had the best day, any IJN sub ever had.

w. Kimmel will be cursed for the incompetent fool he is in this action.

x. Have commented on the Crete data.

y. Not according to Pearl Harbor results.

z. I kind of find that math puzzling especially as that is not usual FAA practice. Nor would the USN CTF sail into battle without a F4F and SBD CAP of its own. See my previous comments.

a1. Agreed.
Regarding the fighters.. they didn't scatter. My reading of World War II fighter battles is one minute the sky is full of airplanes and shortly after its "where the hell did everyone go!" in effect the fighters engage, they fight but the circumstances of a furball prevent them from aiding the bombers any longer. Luckily the Germans also concentrated on their fight and target fixation neutralized them from beating up the bombers too much. They Allied fighters did their job, they covered the aircraft they were escorting and the only failure was in part to the very communications issues that Calbear and you mentioned. RAF fighters covering a US task force have problems due to communications.

It should be noted that the Vals in the Indian Ocean attacks on 2 fast moving desperately manuevering heavy cruisers got 80% hits. The German pilots here got nothing like that, but are for the most part the very same pilots from Crete (attacking fast moving destroyers as well as a carrier and a pair of battleships) and at Crete they got mission kills on the carrier and both battleships.

It seems possible the German aviation losses might be higher but I got the results I game with (used a modified wargame /board game version of Bismark/Midway...old Avalon Hill games and second checked them with World In Flames which is strategic World War II with excellent naval/air interface combat system).

As to the drydock, likely the Americans are wrong and it is repairable, but it won't be as the Tirpitz will never be coming and thus in the views of the people in TTL, the mission is a success. Losing the Oklahoma costs Pye his chance at CNO, and Stark lost his job because of the damage suffered and Kimmel got himself killed. Publically this is a great albiet costly victory. Roosevelt is privately less enthused of course. Churchill is happy as he didnt lost any ships of importance and half the German surface fleet is gone.

As to the firing rate.. Pye has only 3 hours to do as much damage as he can and then run away. I might be off somewhat in rounds fired, but the Battleships would have shot as fast as they could only slowing to prevent overheating the barrels and because crew exhaustion is a thing.

To be fair, until late war and Kamikaze attacks (and defending with massively powerful AAA), the Standard battleships never experienced any kind of serious attack after Pearl Harbor. At Pearl Harbor only the Nevada was attacked by dive bombers (18 dive bombers got 5 hits) and there she was in confined waters and unable to manuever. but that is a 30% hit rate while the entire US Navy at Pearl Harbor (and a few Army guns) where shooting at them. Speaking of Pearl Harbor, I did use that in part for a guide to likely German losses based on Japanese losses during 2nd Wave (excluding the attacks on the airfields and what American fighters managed).

I did review Freya radar pretty closely. Although by the time the radar gunners picked up Force Y they already new about it from a patrol plane. The Carriers were far enough out that their launches may have been noted but considering what their aircraft were doing, it didnt matter what German gunners in France were preparing for them. The Luftwaffe provided what escorts it could for its complicated mission day and for the most part, until the attack on Force Y (and interference from above) they did their job, just as the Allied escorts did.

Overall not perfect but I feel comfortable with the results and losses based on gaming it out. Sure games are only as good as the designer (which is why I use more than one) but they give me sufficient confidence to go with the results. The details may differ but the overall picture seems right.
 
It is a good point about the SBD, although I can also see a decision to send them north to get a better chance at the enemy fleet. The SBD as a heavy fighter lasted until they ran into escorted Kates, that was an expensive lesson.

The airwing of the Wasp was already pretty screwy with 45 fighter (27 F2A and 18 USMC F4F-3), and 36 TBD with no scout or bombing squadrons at all.
that should be 18 TBD and 16 SBD (the Scouting squadron). The VB squadron stayed at home so the fighters could fit.
 
that is probably it for today... reviewing what the Japanese will do, what the British will do to shore up Asia, and what the US Army is doing

But Montgomery is going to Singapore and Alexander is going to North Africa has already been determined. Percival gets Burma.
 

CalBear

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After the losses the fleet took I doubt stark would be retained in a major command.
Kimmel, in this ATL as well as IOTL makes a handy scapegoat (at least behind closed doors, I'm betting on The Medal for Kimmel publicly, a la Admiral Kidd IOT whose WW II lasted about 10 minutes before the Arizona was blown out from under him). Same for the CO of the California and Oklahoma.

Admiral Kidd's MoH citation.

Rear Admiral Isaac Campbell Kidd United States Navy


For conspicuous devotion to duty, extraordinary courage and complete disregard of his own life, during the attack on the Fleet in Pearl Harbor, by Japanese forces on 7 December 1941. Rear Admiral Kidd immediately went to the bridge and, as Commander Battleship Division ONE, courageously discharged his duties as Senior Officer Present Afloat until the U.S.S. Arizona, his Flagship, blew up from magazine explosions and a direct bomb hit on the bridge which resulted in the loss of his life.

Kidd was a fine officer, but I've never quite figured out why he and the Arizona's CO Captain Van Valkenburgh were awarded The Medal.
 

CalBear

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authors notes: KIng keeps his job as FDR wants someone he trusts in the a Pacific and its important that the CNO can play well with others... so Nimitz gets the job. Hart is kind of authors fiat, but I always felt he got screwed. Which is part why Nimitz gets CNO instead of King. I found a new way to abuse Ghormley Trying this timeline to not forget the US Coast Guard, who I have always had a soft spot for.

With war against Germany underway, Roosevelt has fallen back to War Plan Orange and hopes the Japanese are not going to be foolish. Plus sending the battleships back to the Pacific is no longer an option. Stark takes the fall for that and is sent to the UK, where he will have 4 BB, 2 CV, and some cruisers and destroyers to escort Arctic Convoys with alongside the RN. Stark did well in this role as USN Europe so he keeps his job from OTL.

Yeah, the US is pretty naked in the Far East... but Germany First and that war is already underway.
Wow! Chester REALLY got jumped, makes OTL look mild. From a Two Star to CNO/Commander U.S. Fleet.

Ghormley will probably have to be medically out of the the PI. He saw disaster at every turn anyway, now his is hip deep in one, sharing an Island with Doug. Hopefully he can get his teeth dealt with.
 
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