Sir John Valentine Carden survives.

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It's really a moot point over the long term about using "borrowed" vehicles seeing as the supply of parts will soon dry up and the flood of trucks from Canada is under way.If you average Canadian production over the whole war you get 10,000 trucks a month and 38% of that went to the British forces leading to 80% of trucks in North Africa being from Canada.
One of the things I've been keeping an eye on is the convoys coming from Canada. One of the ships sunk had a load of motor vehicles. That's part of the equation. Yes, Canadian trucks will play a large part, as OTL, its just getting them to Egypt that is part of the problem.
Doing math in my head. Yes, you are right.
You can do math(s) in your head. I salute you, Sir! Thank God for the calculator app on the computer.
Sirte would be phenomenal, but I'm not sure they could get there in time to dig in. And even if they could, keeping them supplied would be difficult. Did Sirte have a port at this time?
Speculation about how far O'Connor might get is interesting. I suppose the question is what state he's in is another part of that.
Basically I'm going on Afrika Korps arriving as per OTL on 11 January earliest and how long it would take to drive from Tobruk to Sirte assuming Tobruk falls 3 January. In 1942 excluding battles that took 22 days. So say the WDF could be in Sirte by the end of January. Which would give the AK 20 days to form up and move down from Tripoli which looks about right. Anything else requires a tardier Rommel (unlikely) or a complete collapse of Italian morale (more likely but not a given)
I'm wondering about this too. Did Hitler hasten the deployment with the British victories, and therefore will he likewise hasten deployment because here the victories are sooner than OTL?
11th January was when Hitler issued his directive to send a blocking force to North Africa. It then took time to decide on who what where and when it would all take place.
The first DAK convoy did not sail from Naples until 8th February and IIRC Rommel was only told he was to command on 8th Feb.
The main striking force of the DAK , the tanks, did not arrive in Tripoli until convoys 8 & 9 docked on 10th and 12th March. PZ Regt 5 with 25 Pz I, 45 Pz II and 61 Pz III with 17 PZ IV was not available before then. It sailed from Naples on 5th and 7th March but was held at Palermo while the RN was conducting operations in the area.

Prior to that the HQ tanks of PZ Regt 5 had sailed from Naples on 27th Feb but they comprised only 2 Pz II, 3 Pz III and 2 PZ IV. The Divisional Recon unit had arrived with it's motorcycles and Armoured cars and I believe a Flak Bn had also arrived by mid Feb,
Which is actually an impressive piece of work by the Germans, getting the force sorted and moved.
One thing that is likely to slow the British down is simple wear-and-tear on the tanks, particularly the tracks. Somehow, I don't see them getting that much further than OTL, if only due to this.
There is an argument that the tanks began Op Compass in a better state ITTL than OTL. More A9 and A10 cruisers, less Mark VI. Less mileage on the clock and tracks on the tanks. The Valiant I* are all new, compared to the cruisers that were actually sent. Likewise 2nd Armoured Division. Plus the Valiant infantry tanks. But yes, 200 miles so far over rough ground will take its toll. It's another 250 miles to Benghazi.
the elephant in the room.logistics and maintenance.
You can say that again, and again, and again.
Yep. They'll do better to be sure, maybe getting as far as Ra's Lanuf before halting, the main part of 'do better' will be not breaking if/when the Germans attack, but instead, fending it off, and either forcing a stalemate, or causing a German retreat (preferably the latter).
From there then, it's a case of slowly building up for a later attack. Fortunately, the entire road is coastal, so any attacks can be aided by the RN, who I'm sure will be perfectly happy to help out, and won't in any way get the slightest bit smug about it.
The bigger problem to deal with, before the arrival of DAK, is the Luftwaffe. The arrival of Fliegerkorps X from Norway on 8 January changes things for the Royal Navy, and everyone else.
The italian 10th army was pretty much destroyed in operation compass.
The other italian army in libya, the 5th, had contributed a lot of units transferred to the 10th....
b) there was enough to be able to defend against exhausted troops in worn tanks who had outrun their supplies
The old problem as the Italians retreat towards their main base of operations things get better for them, as the British get further from theirs, things get harder for them.
The railway track grade steel will reduce track wear ITTL, plus the tanks are more reliable so maybe 25% further/sooner is realistic. Hard to put a number on it as there has been some domino tipping already. The water supply surviving at Bardia improves the logistic situation a great deal. Less truck journey miles to carry water amd fuel to carry water. More Italian trucks to help make those journeys. The harbour facilities intact is another departure from OTL. Faster use of ports - even minor ones, increase the ship leg of the supply journey from Alexandria.
Yes, here tracks are better, and tanks are reliable. When Rommel attacked the British armoured force was a joke. Here it won't be quite as funny. Bardia's water was same OTL TTL, the harbour facilities weren't intact, looking at you HMS Aphis.
The capture of other supplies - particularly POL will help matters as well. The British tanks run about 2/3 on petrol and the other third on Dieso. The Italians used both fuels IIRC. There would not have been time to destroy their POL dump at Bardia. It would have been captured intact which would have reduces some need to carry fuel from Egypt, forward.
As it was OTL, so it is TTL.
That means they may get to Homs - it's still a long way to Tripoli and the danger is a worm out WDF meeting fresh (but inexperienced) AK units on the road to Tripoli
Homs! Best part of 1000 miles. Doubt it.
There may be a POD here that could help. I did say the convoys were held up in Palermo while the RN carried out operations in the area. What if the harbour-masters decided it was safe to send a convoy across to Tripoli and the RN forces blundered into it. Bang goes about half of the DAK initial AFVs. Up to our esteemed author of course!
Tempting, very, very tempting. "Get behind me Satan" springs to mind.
However, as this whole Timeline is based on a tank designer surviving, I can see why the OP may want to ignore this. And I understand why he may want to keep the North Africa fanboys at bay. It is after all his vision of what a small matter can affect the future. Dare I say, for want of a nail? And he has followed this principle exceedingly well.
Thank you, I appreciate it. Sticking it to the Nazis is the best fun ever. (Well...you know what I mean). But this is my first foray into non-ASB, so I'm trying my best to keep it real-ish.
SO the British getting to Tripoli before the Germans isn't going to happen. No matter what there will have to be a halt somewhere. The British do have quite a lot going for them ITTL however.
As it stands we are 3 weeks ahead of OTL. If nothing else changes Britain will reach El Aghelia on the 19th of January. Not that other things wont change. The faster advance will likely catch Italian units and positions completely flat footed.
Interesting thing is what the Italians are thinking. It seems that their assessment of the British forces in Egypt is much greater than it actually was. The way they've lost so many many so quickly will probably reinforce that. So do they double down and try to reinforce defeat, or will they withdraw quicker here?
What does this all mean, well a quicker resumption of the advance. Britain can't just decide it is going to Tripoli and set off. Supply dumps and maintenance stations lines of communication etc need setting up on the way. How easy this is depends on what sort of resistance the Italians are able to mount. If they aren't able to mount any sort of serious and organised resistance the British will know. Patrolling will give the British an idea of what is in front of them and it likely won't be much. At that point while a large portion of the WDF may sit in place resting and refitting before the next big move I would not be surprised to see a smaller formation sent ahead to capture convenient locations for supply dumps etc. Think of it as a reminiscence in force that is laying the groundwork for the main force to move up behind. Then when the main force does mover it has supplies of food, POL and water ready to supplement those it is bringing with it. How far that advance force Might go depends but Sirte is as good a place as any to aim for and set up a more permanent base of operations to launch the next push from. It is pretty much half way from El Aghelia and Misrata so as a point to move the main force too before starting the next push it may well be considered convenient.
Wavell and Churchill will probably want to have their thoughts on this taken into account. Wavell is looking in February towards Sudan. Churchill is still looking at Greece. Just taking Cyrenaica is huge. And, despite things being better, Hutchison was given one month to plan for. Compass kicked off 8 December, that month is almost up.

This is where sorting out butterflies from OTL actions is interesting. The British, starting with planning a 5 day raid, go form Marsa Metruh on 9 December all the way to El Agheila on 9 February. It's a bit like the fall of France, O'Connor seems to roll a lot of sixes.
Here, it could be argued that things should go even better, since O'Connor is starting off from a better level of preparation and equipment. However, as @alfredtuomi mentioned the elephant in the room is logistics and maintenance. We'll just need to keep tuned to see what happens. I include myself in that, I have no idea, just making it up as I go along as usual.
Thanks again for your interest and support
Allan
 
I'm wondering about this too. Did Hitler hasten the deployment with the British victories, and therefore will he likewise hasten deployment because here the victories are sooner than OTL?
Counterpoint. Will the much faster British advance / Italian collapse make Hitler think why bother trying to bail out Mussolini, it's all going to be over before we can get there and besides we would have to do it all ourselves. Even a delay on the decision to review events means it is less likely to happen.
Interesting thing is what the Italians are thinking. It seems that their assessment of the British forces in Egypt is much greater than it actually was. The way they've lost so many many so quickly will probably reinforce that. So do they double down and try to reinforce defeat, or will they withdraw quicker here?
Probably the latter is far, far more likely right now. This becomes even more true if the Germans don't send help. The Germans not sending help is less likely if they think the Italians are on the verge of collapse. It becomes a big feedback loop until either the Italians do collapse or the Germans decide to bite the bullet. Every day that goes by however makes it a much bigger bullet to bite.
 
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Some wider thoughts on the whole North Africa, Greece geopolitics situation.

When the Decision was made by Hitler to send troops to North Africa on January 11th the British were camped outside Tobruk, where will they be ITTL. They could well be camped outside or even inside Benghazi or sitting at Beda Fomm or ElAghelia. The first question for Hitler then becomes how fast can we get there and how far can the British get. Let's face it, it's pretty pointless sending a force to Tripoli if the British get there first. If Britain has advanced 500 miles in a month then another 500 to Tripoli could well be possible. The second question is will it be worth trying to reinforce the Italians. If they collapse as we are on the way then we get left as bag holders for an Italian possession we don't care about. If the answer to one or both of those questions comes back in the negative for Germany then no intervention is sent.

How will the British react to that, because they will know. Ultra will let them know the Germans aren't sending anyone to help and that the Italians are likely about to collapse and possibly abandon ship. You might think then that troops will be pulled back and sent to Greece or the Sudan (or both) and I say no they wont. Think about it, Britain now has an open goal just sat there waiting for them, why would they pass up this opportunity. Churchill will know the propaganda value of conquering Italian North Africa will be massive. That is even more true if you can do it on the cheap because the Germans are not intervening and the Italians may be about to collapse. In this scenario Britain is going to Tripoli and going as soon as the tanks can bee filled with Petrol, or Diesel, you don't want to make that mistake. Then once those tanks have been photographed in Tripoli they get given some repair work and put on boats bound for Greece or Sudan. I fully believe that a Greek intervention will be delayed if this was known to be an option.

Now what does that mean for Germany though, they will still want to support Italy as there was a very real fear of Italy being knocked out of the war in 41. Yugoslavia and Greece happen sooner. Yes things aren't going well for Italy in Greece but the reasons Germany invaded Greece still stand. The fear of attacks on Romanian oil is still a real one for Hitler so preventing that whilst supporting Italy and not getting dragged into a lost cause in North Africa is a win win for everyone, well except the Greeks.

Just some thoughts on how things could well play out TTL. If Greece does get brought forward a month then the British may well find themselves in a position of only being able to send extra troops to Crete.
 
Aren't the Germans also already planing or about to start planning operations against Russia as well it will affect what they can cut loose to support the Italians as it did in OTL not sure how much it will affect their thinking in TTL though the Italians could make their involvement on that front contingent on Germany helping them out in North Africa.
 
How will the British react to that, because they will know. Ultra will let them know the Germans aren't sending anyone to help and that the Italians are likely about to collapse and possibly abandon ship. You might think then that troops will be pulled back and sent to Greece or the Sudan (or both) and I say no they wont. Think about it, Britain now has an open goal just sat there waiting for them, why would they pass up this opportunity. Churchill will know the propaganda value of conquering Italian North Africa will be massive. That is even more true if you can do it on the cheap because the Germans are not intervening and the Italians may be about to collapse. In this scenario Britain is going to Tripoli and going as soon as the tanks can bee filled with Petrol, or Diesel, you don't want to make that mistake. Then once those tanks have been photographed in Tripoli they get given some repair work and put on boats bound for Greece or Sudan. I fully believe that a Greek intervention will be delayed if this was known to be an option.

Now what does that mean for Germany though, they will still want to support Italy as there was a very real fear of Italy being knocked out of the war in 41. Yugoslavia and Greece happen sooner. Yes things aren't going well for Italy in Greece but the reasons Germany invaded Greece still stand. The fear of attacks on Romanian oil is still a real one for Hitler so preventing that whilst supporting Italy and not getting dragged into a lost cause in North Africa is a win win for everyone, well except the Greeks.

Just some thoughts on how things could well play out TTL. If Greece does get brought forward a month then the British may well find themselves in a position of only being able to send extra troops to Crete.
Ultra isn't all powerful. No means of disseminating German transcripts to Cairo and Wavell was in place until after the Germans had been sent to North Africa. And the only way that Britain realised they were coming was through intercepts from Italian communications (air force I think). So Britain is unlikely to get a negative confirmation of German intervention.

Having said that the point about whether or not the Germans choose to reinforce the Italians in North Africa is a valid one. The argument could be that it is a lost cause but given Hitler's later obsession about Tunisia you can't help but feel that he would have tried. And if he does try then probably we have a rerun of the Western Desert campaign in 2H 1941 but likely that the British are much better equipped and prepared.

In the off chance that Hitler does give up on North Africa then the addition of the two divisions of the Afrika Korps will make little or no difference to the Yugoslav / Greek campaign
 
One difference no North African campaign might make is to German logistics in Barbarossa. The number of trucks used to support Rommel's forces was totally disproportionate to their small size.
 
Basicly the british being in greece threatens army group souths flank and is unacceptable was the reason why the germans invaded greece outside helping the italians with their war and threateing their oil supplies with airforce bases in romania . They also had a casus belli of sorts with yugoslavia thanks to the coup and they might have not invaded them if that didnt happen and they just let the germans take over the railway they wanted to use to invade greece with wich the regent was planning on doing i think wich was also kinda the reason the coup happened .

I dont know about a month earlier but several weeks is possible for compass. And people seem to be forgetting the reason o`connor stopped in otl was logistics and this is still true here rather than resistance no matter how good things go with maybe extra 100 kilometers or something like that at best ? Probably should just find a good location to stop at wich can be held with minimal forces should be the suggestions by the topic while the rest of the 8th army is based around ports or hell egypt even while logisitics are built up at bengazhi / tobruk and as far forward as possible.

If greece happens maybe get o`connor to command it and have him be very stern with the greeks and keep the greece campaign with very limited goals thanks to the lack forces compared to what is needed . Basicly somehow have the greeks deploy bigger forces to defend the albanian front from flanking attacks from germans so that the bulk of the greek army could evacuate south is the most realistic modification of otl plans i can come up with since most of greek army ended up surrendering in albania in otl? This way the southern defense lines might delay the germans alot more than otl and you would have a week or two extra to evacuate ? This could get you like 100 k greek troops and maybe more equipment evacuated by the brits atleast compared to otl? 100K greek troops could be a massive butterfly ? This could be like 6 infantry divisons and a armored divison or two for a entire freaking army ! And ofcourse hold crete please . This could make a greece adventure in 1944 possible ?

Even if rommel comes , it wont be enough if greece is canceled by the brits since there is a 2nd armored divison being fitted out in egypt currently wich would be enough to defeat him with sheer numbers. But it probably gets diverted to greece so it isnt as important as people think altough here the 7th divison isnt giving away a freaking brigade for the greece adventure so they should be able to fight rommel decently i think when he attacks atleast should still be change from otl anyway .

But more interesting are the discussion if the germans dont bother with north africa , apparently the army high command was rather against diversions since they were already planning barbarossa and the desert shallowed up precious new panzers for like 2 years while here they could be sent as replacements to the eastern fronts where they could do more work . And as i have said , they could pass on occupying greece to the italians and free up some troops for either occupying work wich the troops did in otl in the soviet union or just just as replacements for casualties even wich would help alot to be honest since the germans were planning for a 1941 campaign wich was rather optimistic.

Also was rommel being in north africa part of the reason why there wasnt a followup to compass and they got distracted with greece ? I know it was mainly political reasons but i do think it might have been a factor of sorts right ?
Cause asfar i can tell the local army commanders werent thrilled with greece at all and had to be talked into it and this is literally the only pod here to exploit thanks to the more succesful compass , have the local commanders in wavell and o`connor and the australians be even more unhappy with the idea when eden comes to discuss things at the end of compass and he somehow convinces chruchill when he goes back to london . He basicly had to talk them into greece at the meetings and the commanders kinda went along with it but they werent happy at all asfar i can tell , here instead have them insist that if greece isnt sucking up the divisons and even worse the logistics we could instead clear italian north africa and hell italian east africa aswell if greece doesnt happen since the commanders will know that we wont be able to commit enough forces to defend greece with - i think they wanted 20 divisons and greek would be able to provide like 10-12 of them but that still would need atleast a BEF sized formation and this just isnt available without the brits sending another army from the home islands. Hell you could send atleast another divison maybe two to east africa if greece doesnt happen wich could help altough it was also very logistical limited campaign rather than fighting based so dont how much that would help actually ?
 
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marathag

Banned
The number of trucks used to support Rommel's forces was totally disproportionate to their small size
Most were of Italian make(taken from Italian units, that screwed them over) and good numbers of captured British trucks.
Rommel in Russia? Will likely have to make do with lower numbers of good German trucks, and a variety of French trucks, some good, some not so much.
 
Not sure if I brought this up on this forum before.
OTL, 9 Feb 1941, Italian steamers IV NOVEMBRE (61 GRT), TENAX (115grt) and ROSANNA ( 205 grt) were lost in stranding on the Sirte Coast.
Italian Steamer EMILIA GUIDI (472grt) and TERESUCCIA (313 grt) were scuttled at Mersa El Braga.
This may suggest how small the harbours were along this stretch of coast. IIRC, grt is a volume measurement and not a weight measurement. 100 cubic feet = 1 GRT??? So this suggests the harbours along this coast were used to coasters that carried an average of 100grt with the larger (?) harbours capable of taking up to 400 grt. But with waht handling equipment?
GRT can be deceptive for cargo vessels especially coastal ones.GRT is a measure of enclosed volume and is used to calculate harbor dues so if one carries a deck cargo that volume is not charged for harbor dues.Devious.
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
Greece, much has been said about the British intervention in Greece, and the effects it had on the campaign in North Africa. Before we enter the world of the British intervention, we need to look at some history. The British establishment had developed a great fondness for Greece, having a somewhat romantic attachment of it. Countless generations of British upper and middle class schoolboys had studied Ancient Greek, and it was a well regarded degree course at British universities. Britain had supported Greek independence from the Ottoman Empire, in the mid Victorian age, and continued to support it to the present time in this TL. The fact that by 1940, Greece was a very poor nasty dictatorship, with major internal problems was overlooked. For the British Greece wasn’t a major priority, other than political, military its a disaster about to happen. If Britain had had no other commitments, and had been able to deploy all its military forces to the defence of Greece, it would still have been a disaster. Given the poor infrastructure, the lack of local resources, and the ground conditions, and the poverty of the Greek forces, the Germans would always have the advantage. Britain’s intervention never made military sense, it always was a strictly political decision. Winstons rhetoric about defending the cradle of democracy, was just that rhetoric, to justify a cold hard political decision.

Winston has a problem, both domestically and internationally, domestically he has thousands of establishment voices calling for a British intervention in Greece. Internationally he can not afford to make the same mistake that his predecessor Chamberlain made, he can not write a cheque that he isn’t prepared to honour. Chamberlain folded his good hand against Hitler over Czechoslovakia, then tried to bluff over Poland, when his bluff was called, he declared war, then did nothing. Not that there was anything he could do, without the complete cooperation of the French, which was never going to happen. Winston if as he is, is making guarantees to the Greeks, has to put the boots on the ground, to back up the guarantee. It doesn’t matter if he loses, he just has to be seen to make his best effort.

Hitler is pissed, his little chum Benito, is dragging him into a conflict he really could do without. This side show, is distracting from his important, the destruction of the the Communist State , next move. Benito puffed up with his own importance, desperate to grab a few crumbs from the table, has jumped in and made things worse. Here we see a major failing of the Axis powers, they were a bunch of children scrambling in a sand pit each trying desperately to grab the most, and not sharing their toys. Unlike the Anglo Americans, who to a large extent combined their command process, and tried to combine logistics efforts, as far was practical. Had Benito done the sensible thing and stayed out of the the war, until Germany had successfully invaded Britain. He/Italy could have been the larger neutral entry port for the Germans, and enable the Germans to get hold of some of the vital strategic materials that they lacked. Using Italian ships, you could load them with second hand French equipment, such as tanks, ship them to Japan, then collect large amounts of rubber from FIC, and ship it back to Italy, for onward transshipment to Germany. Italian ships can travel to South America, full of proto Fascists dictatorships, who would be more than happy to trade with Italy/Germany. The only problem is that due to how fucked up both the German and Italian economy was they don’t have the foreign exchange to pay for this.

Germany/Hitler doesn’t want the British in Greece, able to launch bombers against the Romanian oil industry. Had the Italians not invaded Greece, the British would not have been able to get established in Greece, the Greeks basically just wanted to be left alone. And knew that allowing the British in, would be just the excuse that the Germans needed to invade. And the biggest problem is both Greece and North Africa, are areas that play to British strength and Germany weakness. Germany had a lot of steel and coal, but very little oil and rubber. Britain at this time was not short of ether oil or rubber, it can import all the basic oil products it needs from its own extensive oil refineries in the Middle East. There is a problem in the transport of the oil and the provision of aviation fuel. It will take time to switch the refineries to producing high quality aviation fuel, but it will happen as it did IOTL. The transport problem is being addressed, the switch from two gallon flimsies to five gallon Jerrycans, has already started and with a ramp up of Jerrycans production in India, will soon be solved.

Greece will be a military disaster for the British, but will be a political success, and there is a possibility that Crete might be successfully defended. It was a dam close run thing IOTL, and it would take very little to change the outcome. As has been pointed out by others, given the success that the British ITTL, the Germans might not decide to intervene in North Africa. If they don’t you will end up with a very different dynamic in the Mediterranean by the time that of the Japanese intervention in WWII. In the long term Winston will need to be sat on heavily, to prevent his romantic inclination to get more involved in Greece. Turkey will be looking very carefully at all the events in Greece, and taking note of the outcome. A strong British effort will reenforce their own inclination to resist the Germans in their efforts to become involved in Turkey, and bring them into the war.

RR.
 
Greece will be a military disaster for the British, but will be a political success, and there is a possibility that Crete might be successfully defended. It was a dam close run thing IOTL, and it would take very little to change the outcome. As has been pointed out by others, given the success that the British ITTL, the Germans might not decide to intervene in North Africa. If they don’t you will end up with a very different dynamic in the Mediterranean by the time that of the Japanese intervention in WWII. In the long term Winston will need to be sat on heavily, to prevent his romantic inclination to get more involved in Greece. Turkey will be looking very carefully at all the events in Greece, and taking note of the outcome. A strong British effort will reenforce their own inclination to resist the Germans in their efforts to become involved in Turkey, and bring them into the war.
Crete as you said can be held with some small changes ITTL as you have said which would have major effects since the Royal Navy won't take as many casualties in the Eastern Med so fewer ships will need to be pulled from Home Fleet and other station to make up for the losses in that happened in the OTL fall of the Island. The hardest part will be sitting on Churchill its one of the great skills of Alan Brooke that he was able to both sit on the Prime Minister and redirect him as needed.
 
If Crete is a win, that'll probably means HMS Formidable remains undamaged, so ought to be free to be deployed east with Force Z, along with maybe either HMS Warspite of HMS Barham, which ought to significantly improve matters, even if the latter battleship is are judged to be incapable of keeping up and is left to sit in Singapore harbour.
 
If Crete is a win, that'll probably means HMS Formidable remains undamaged, so ought to be free to be deployed east with Force Z, along with maybe either HMS Warspite of HMS Barham, which ought to significantly improve matters, even if the latter battleship is are judged to be incapable of keeping up and is left to sit in Singapore harbour.
It always comes back to Singapore! Still a year away yet. At the rate I'm going, Victor tanks will have rolled down Unter Den Linden by then.
 

Orry

Donor
Monthly Donor
It always comes back to Singapore! Still a year away yet. At the rate I'm going, Victor tanks will have rolled down Unter Den Linden by then.

In which case the Japanese will be reconsidering their actions.

It was the impression of weakness that the fall of France and further defeats gave that empowered the Souther plan war lobby.

Full on Victory desease came later
 
When looking at what is likely to go on in and around the Mediterranean, in particular what the Germans and Italians will do it is important to not look at what we know of the British situation. Instead you have to try and look at the situation from the point of view of the Germans and Italians.
Just because we know that by the time the British get as far as El Aghelia they will either be at the end of their current logistical tether or if not still in need of a rest and refit does not mean the Italians and Germans know that. Also what size force do the Germans and Italians think that the British have in North Africa. Is it a force they want to keep fighting given what has happened so far.
For Italy do they
You also then have the question for Germany of do they want that same British force to turn around and head to Greece to carry on where they will leave off with the Italians. British Bombers in Greece is something Germany can not accept. They also don't want an Italian collapse, that was a real fear for Germany in late 1940 and early 41 and helped contribute to the decision to intervene in North Africa and Greece. ITTL if North Africa is looking like a lost cause or to not be worth the effort then Greece is pretty much the only way to keep Italy going.
For Italy how badly do they think the situation is in North Africa. For them they could see it as being anything from salvageable on their own (they wont be thinking this) to being a salvage operation to get out as much as possible before the British capture it all. Realistically Mussolini needs a victory and if North Africa looks like being a bad loss at best and a disaster at worst then cutting his losses and going somewhere else for good publicity is not the worst Idea, especially if the Germans are there to do the fighting for him.
Now for Britain. As @Ramp-Rat points out some intervention in Greece is happening, it cant be avoided for Churchill. There are differences both already in place and probable ITTL that make the events that happen there very likely different. Firstly if North Africa looks like an open goal because of scouting from the WDF in mid January after Cyrenaica has fallen to the British than it will be a hard thing to pass up. Churchill still needs victories and British tanks in Tripoli is great propaganda, both at home and in America where it might help make it clear that Britain isn't finished just yet. Another thing that may well play into letting O'Connor get on with things is that Britain has equipped forces at home to send. We have already had a post about an armoured formation, I forget which, being fully equipped with Matilda II's. As a token force to be the Vanguard of a much larger intervention it isn't a bad place to start. It also buys time for things to finish off in North Africa before those troops then get sent to Greece.

Just some things to consider, whilst we know what was done and what is at play for the British we can't overlook what is happening with the Germans and Italians. Things have the potential to go very differently ITTL based on a few small changes. That is not to say what I am talking about above will happen, its as likely not to as to happen.
 
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I just don't see how all this nonsensical talk of North Africa has anything to do with Allan's fine thread on Singapore.... :cool:
 
Operation Compass, Part 6. 1-7 January 1941.
Operation Compass, Part 6.

1-7 January 1941.

On 1 January 1941 the Western Desert Force was officially renamed the XIII Corps, recognising the expansion of the British Troops in Egypt. General O’Connor was confirmed as General Officer Commanding, but it didn’t affect him materially, he was still facing Tobruk with the forces already under his command.

For three hours in the early morning 3 January, two squadrons of Wellington bombers were over the Tobruk area, bombing and drowning the noise of the assembling tanks and artillery. These followed the bombardment from 00:00hrs to 02:00hrs when HMS Terror, with two gunboats and a minesweeper, focussed on the inner defences. Three Royal Navy destroyers stood ready to intercept the damaged Italian cruiser San Giorgio should she try to break out.

The artillery barrage had opened up so that at 05:40hrs the 2/3rd Battalion 16th Australian Brigade, crossed their start line and advanced to the attack. The Royal Navy and the RAF had provided cover for the engineers, who had been working from just after midnight to disarm the booby traps, clear the mines and make passages through the wire and over the ditch. Within an hour the 16th Australian Brigade, with eighteen Valiant tanks, had punched a hole a mile wide and a mile deep in Tobruk’s defences. The Australians found, once again, that Italian resistance varied from the negligible to the very stubborn.

The very stubborn defenders discovered that the Australian troops tended to do two things. Firstly, they would pause while one, then up to three, Valiant tanks would appear, and support the approach of the infantry with their main and co-axial guns. If that didn’t work, then, within a short time, very accurate artillery fire would start to rain down on the Italian position. At that point the tanks, often now reinforced by a Close Support tank, would then reappear and pummel the Italian position, often at point-blank range. While the 2-pdr gun on the Valiant had no HE capability, the tank gunners were getting very good at using the AP shots to knock away the defensive structures and knock splinters of rock and concrete onto the defenders. Very rarely did the Italian machine gunners have clear shots at Australian infantry who had become very good at using the tank’s bulk as a movable shelter.

At 07:40hrs, while the 16th and 17th Australian Brigades were still fanning out to east and west picking off the defence posts from the flanks and rear, the British 16th Brigade, with 48th Bn RTR, took up the advance northwards towards the heart of the Italian position. This was covered by a heavy barrage, with the Royal Artillery’s guns moving their aim forward 200 yards every two minutes. Those batteries not providing the rolling barrage concentrated on pre-determined Italian artillery battery positions.

The first main resistance to 16th British Brigade came at the Bardia-El Adem road junction, where dug-in tanks armed with machine-guns held up the 2nd Bn Queens Royal Regiment. C Squadron of 48th Bn RTR, supporting the Queens, concentrated, and the Italian tanks, armed only with machine guns, had no defence against the Valiants’ 2-pdr guns. As soon as the resistance was overcome Brigadier Greenfield’s brigade resumed its advance. Once more on the right and in the centre little opposition was met, but again the Queens battalion ran into trouble. The Italians had a large number of tanks within the perimenter, but very few of them were actually mobile, hence the dug in tanks at the road junction. The Italian commander had kept the tanks that were capable of moving as a counter-attack force. So, seven M13/40 medium tanks accompanied by some infantry covered by a barrage, were given orders to counter-attack, which they did with great courage. This was routed by the presence of six Valiant tanks, which destroyed the M13/40s within minutes. More stubborn resistance near Fort Pilastrino was overcome when the Royal Artillery observer with the Queens’ Battalion HQ was able to direct fire through the radio link provided by the tanks. Followed up quickly by a Company of infantry and a Troop of tanks, the Italians gave up in the face of overwhelming odds.

The Solaro area was captured by the Leicestershire Regiment, and with it the Fortress Commander, General Pitassi Mannella. Despite the strongest protests from his capters, he insisted that his own capture did not mean that the rest of the defenders of Tobruk would have to follow suit. The attacking forces were tiring fast, many had had a long march to the start line and then had been fighting for most of the day. Two lessons from the fighting at Bardia had been introduced. The carrier platoons from each Battalion were used much more for bringing forward ammunition for the men and carrying out the wounded. The walking wounded, rather than able bodied men, were tasked with moving the Italian prisoners, often with a carrier on overwatch.

In the same way the Tank Brigade had ‘acquired’ some Italian tankettes which they used for resupply. While the diesel engine of the Valiant Mark I had sufficient fuel for most of the day, the expenditure of both main and machine gun ammunition was prolific. The armoured resupply vehicles were able to come forward almost to the front line, so that the tanks accompanying the infantry didn’t have to withdraw too far to be resupplied. This also gave the infantry Companies time to get their own ammunition and water replenished.

It was the Australian 6th Division Cavalry Regiment that put the final gloss on the day’s action. With their captured Italian tanks, they raced ahead of 16th Brigade and made straight for Tobruk harbour itself. A roadblock was cleared for them by the Italian defenders who didn’t seem to recognise the significance of the kangaroos painted on the side of the tanks. On arriving at the harbour, the Australian tanks and accompanying infantry in carriers ripped into the heart of the efforts to destroy ammunition and fuel dumps. Once the naval garrison of 2000 sailors at the harbour, commanded Admiral Vietina, realised that they had been tricked and were incapable of doing anything about it, Vietina offered the Australian Captain in command his personal weapon and surrendered the facilities. The Australians insisted on stopping any further attempts at demolition of stores or facilities, which was agreed, and one enthusiastic Australian raised his bush hat on the flag pole to mark the change in ownership. The Cavalry commander fired off Very Lights to let the Royal Navy and the rest of 6th Australian Division know they'd captured the port.


As night fell most of the defended area had been captured, and it was clear that the battle had been won. The perimeter was so long that many of the outlying posts, with communications cut off, didn’t realise the full extent of their position. The 7th Armoured Division and its Support Group continued to press against the western edge of the Tobruk garrison all day, holding the attention of the forces at that end of the perimeter

The Australians had found a barbed wire enclosure, obviously intended for themselves, which they used it to collect the large numbers of Italian prisoners they’d captured during the day. During the night the Italian Air Force finally responded to the requests for help from the garrison. The Italian prisoners in the POW compound had lit fires to keep themselves warm during the night, and it was here that the Italian bombers concentrated their efforts. The number of prisoners killed was reported at somewhere between 50 and 300; the Italians were huddled together and the effect of the bombs was appalling.

At dawn on 4 January Major-General Della Mura, commanding 61st Sirte Division, surrendered, with several thousand officers and men of his Division to the commander of 16th Australian Brigade. At 10.45hrs the last strong point had surrendered. It still took most of the day for the Australian and British troops to occupy the whole area and disarm the garrison.

The defeat of the Tobruk garrison included 25,000 prisoners, and the capture of 208 field and medium guns and 87 tanks. The total casualties in 13th Corps were just over 300, 2nd Bn Queens Royal Regiment having suffered the worst.

Arrangements had been made to take over the port installations as rapidly as possible, and it was a great relief to find that the demolitions had been confined chiefly to guns and ammunition. The planned demolition of a naval fuel plant and the floating crane had been forestalled by the 6th Division Cavalry Regiment. Some of the jetties were damaged but usable; the power-station was in working order, with 4,000 tons of coal on hand. There was a complete bulk petrol storage installation; a refrigeration plant and a distillation plant all found to be undamaged; and 10,000 tons of stored water was found. The Royal Navy’s Inshore Squadron began at once its task of sweeping for mines and on the morning of January 6 the harbour was ready to receive shipping.

Once more, having learned from the experience of Sidi Barrani and Bardia, the Royal Navy assisted with the relocation of the Italian prisoners. As the lighters and coastal vessels, which had been waiting for the capture of Tobruk, came in and unloaded their cargos, they left crammed with Italian soldiers and sailors bound for a more convenient captivity, 1500 to 2000 were shipped out every second or third day.

Back at Bardia, the first elements of the 7th Australian Division started to arrive from training in Palestine. The 21st Brigade arrived to take over from 19th Brigade, now fully equipped, though with an Italian flavour, these arrived in Tobruk on 7 January.

General O’Connor already had his eyes on the next phase of the operation, and with 7th Armoured Division able to meet their fuel, food and water requirements from Tobruk’s resources already had them on the road east. General Mackay’s 6th Australian Division, with the arrival of 19th Brigade was a completely Australian outfit, and, despite its exertions, was ready for whatever came next. The 16th British Brigade were left to police Tobruk. Trying to sort out the prisoners was a difficult task, and great efforts had to be made with regard hygiene. The POW cage had been expanded to deal with the numbers, but providing latrines, and enforcing their use, took a lot of effort on the part of the Argylls, who’d been handed that particular role.

NB Text in italic differs from OTL. This goes pretty much the same as Bardia. Looking at Rommel's capture of Tobruk, where he had plenty of tanks within the perimeter it still takes a day and a half. Although the Italian garrison in Tobruk is much smaller than Bardia's the perimeter is much longer and so takes a lot of marching to get it all together. The Australian Cavalry did capture the port, but the next morning. I've taken liberties because I wanted the floating crane to survive. The use of Italian tanks is a bit of a ruse de guerre here, but it is in italics so it isn't real. Once again the presence of many more infantry tanks gives the 6th Australian Division a much stronger hand to take Tobruk, in roughly the same time frame, it is a large area to capture, but with roughly a quarter to a third less casualties.
 
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