Alternate Electoral Maps III

Hawaii could go either way.
California looks like a narrow GOP win.
Oklahoma definitely goes GOP and I’d bet by double digits - Oklahoma and Tulsa counties are R >60%.
West Virginia is probably a narrow Kucinich win.
Wisconsin also looks like a close Kucinich win.
Kucinich definitely wins Michigan.
Maryland is an R win, looks just like the 2014 Governor election.
Kucinich obviously wins DC, and Rhode Island where he sweeps every county.
For the most part, this is right, although WV and Wisconsin would actually be close Romney wins (I based Wisconsin off Bush 2004 if he had won the state by mid single-digits). Hawaii would be a Kucinich win by a narrow margin. What would the overall state map look like?
 
So how would I apply this swing to the counties? Do I halve it again and I apply the swing to the county results of 04 or 08? I do want to make a county map of this result and I'd rather make sure I do it right the first time.
You can either use 2004 as a starting point or do the actual 2008 results, but it probably makes more sense to do 2008 since you’re specifically trying to show Obama winning by that margin. if you do use 2008 as a starting point, you would do a roughly 25 point swing to Obama since he already got a roughly 10 point swing from 2004, so add 12.5 to Obama in every county and subtract 12.5 from McCain in every county
 
You can either use 2004 as a starting point or do the actual 2008 results, but it probably makes more sense to do 2008 since you’re specifically trying to show Obama winning by that margin. if you do use 2008 as a starting point, you would do a roughly 25 point swing to Obama since he already got a roughly 10 point swing from 2004, so add 12.5 to Obama in every county and subtract 12.5 from McCain in every county
Alrighty thank you so much!
 
Here's the third revised map for the Ferguson Scenario: the 2012 election between Ferguson and Romney.
2012 Election Results by County (Arkana Template).png

Again, what is the state by state map? I don't think anyone got 2008 definitely right.
 
Here's the third revised map for the Ferguson Scenario: the 2012 election between Ferguson and Romney.View attachment 629725
Again, what is the state by state map? I don't think anyone got 2008 definitely right.
I think I'll try to guess a few states.

Well, Romney likely wins Utah, Idaho and Wyoming. It looks like he'll also win Nebraska, Kansas, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama and Mississippi.

I'm pretty sure Ferguson wins the remaining states but that's just my guess.

I wonder what caused Mitt Romney to lose this badly.
 
The Ferguson Scenario is all about recreating that sweet spot in the '60s and '70s where the party coalitions weren't as firm as they are now, meaning more swing voters. Strangely enough, they focus on the blowouts instead of the ones I like- the close elections where weird states like Illinois or Missouri decide the election.
 
The Ferguson Scenario is all about recreating that sweet spot in the '60s and '70s where the party coalitions weren't as firm as they are now, meaning more swing voters. Strangely enough, they focus on the blowouts instead of the ones I like- the close elections where weird states like Illinois or Missouri decide the election.
The Ferguson Scenario does include a close election-that of 2020, although that falls within Current Politics, and is a map that I'll post in the Chat board. 2004 is a variation of the 1996 election; 2008 is a Republican landslide that resembles George H.W. Bush's 1988 victory in many (but not all) respects; and 2012 is a Democratic landslide. The 2016 election will be even more so.
 
I think I'll try to guess a few states.

Well, Romney likely wins Utah, Idaho and Wyoming. It looks like he'll also win Nebraska, Kansas, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama and Mississippi.

I'm pretty sure Ferguson wins the remaining states but that's just my guess.

I wonder what caused Mitt Romney to lose this badly.
This is mostly correct, though Romney wins one other state in addition to the ones you've listed. Which one is it?
 
To stimey my sanity somewhat on making the county map for that 2008 Election with 1932 Swing, I made a sequel with the 2012 Presidential Election map adding the swing of 3.4% of 1936 onto the previous one. Many ways it makes sense in this scenario that Utah would be the stickout especially if Romney is the nominee again.
1614668069972.png


Also I decided to make a Senate election map of 2006 reflecting the 1930 Senate election, no with such things like jim crow it is a bit difficult to apply a proper swing so instead decided to simply have the net gain of the Democrats be equal, net 8. Decided to flip Tennessee, Nevada, and Mississippi. Despite Arizona being the closest flip after Tennessee, in trying to come up with what scenario this is, I'm somewhat settling on Cheney becoming President following a Bush assassination and a combination of failure to act on the economy leading to a 2nd Great Depression possibly starting another war leads to some different candidacies, like Trent Lott not running for reelection in 2006 and Oscar Goodman running in Nevada.
1614668838505.png
 
To stimey my sanity somewhat on making the county map for that 2008 Election with 1932 Swing, I made a sequel with the 2012 Presidential Election map adding the swing of 3.4% of 1936 onto the previous one. Many ways it makes sense in this scenario that Utah would be the stickout especially if Romney is the nominee again.
View attachment 629833

Also I decided to make a Senate election map of 2006 reflecting the 1930 Senate election, no with such things like jim crow it is a bit difficult to apply a proper swing so instead decided to simply have the net gain of the Democrats be equal, net 8. Decided to flip Tennessee, Nevada, and Mississippi. Despite Arizona being the closest flip after Tennessee, in trying to come up with what scenario this is, I'm somewhat settling on Cheney becoming President following a Bush assassination and a combination of failure to act on the economy leading to a 2nd Great Depression possibly starting another war leads to some different candidacies, like Trent Lott not running for reelection in 2006 and Oscar Goodman running in Nevada.
View attachment 629835
How did Indiana stay red when it flipped otl?
 
Hi! So I've remastered :)P) the maps so that they've got a more in-timeline aesthetic, and I'm kinda proud of how they ended up looking. So here's the first three elections of the US in my timeline again
New election in my timeline, If You Can Keep It, and the first that gets really messy! The Election of 1812, ran in the middle of the insurgency by Aaron Burr against the Federal government, saw the almost-unanimous re-election of James Madison and George Clinton, with only a single elector instead voting for Aaron Burr, who claimed to be the legitimate President of the USA:

election-of-1812-iycki-png.629905
 
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I’ve never done a 50 state Democratic landslide based on a uniform swing from an actual election before, so here’s 1992 if Bill Clinton had won all 50 states - I chose 1992 because it was basically the only election where I could have a Democrat win all 50 states on a uniform swing without them winning the NPV by more than 26%, the record set by Warren Harding in 1920. as such, Clinton wins the PV by 25.5 points over Bush, with the closet state being Utah which Clinton wins by a 1.27 point margin. I will also be posting a county map for this soon.

genusmap.php


Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Al Gore (D-TN) 537 electoral votes, 53.01% popular vote

George H.W Bush (R-TX)/ Dan Quayle (R-IN) 1 electoral vote, 27.45% popular vote

H. Ross Perot (I-TX)/James Stockdale (I-IL) 0 electoral votes, 18.91% popular vote
 
For the most part, this is right, although WV and Wisconsin would actually be close Romney wins (I based Wisconsin off Bush 2004 if he had won the state by mid single-digits). Hawaii would be a Kucinich win by a narrow margin. What would the overall state map look like?
Well, here is the 2008 state map for the Ferguson Scenario:

2008 Map by State.png


W. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/J. Edward Sununu (R-NH)-55.90%-479 EV
Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)/Howard Dean (D-VT)-43.44%-59 EV
Others-0.66%-0 EV
 
I’ve never done a 50 state Democratic landslide based on a uniform swing from an actual election before, so here’s 1992 if Bill Clinton had won all 50 states - I chose 1992 because it was basically the only election where I could have a Democrat win all 50 states on a uniform swing without them winning the NPV by more than 26%, the record set by Warren Harding in 1920. as such, Clinton wins the PV by 25.5 points over Bush, with the closet state being Utah which Clinton wins by a 1.27 point margin. I will also be posting a county map for this soon.

genusmap.php


Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Al Gore (D-TN) 537 electoral votes, 53.01% popular vote

George H.W Bush (R-TX)/ Dan Quayle (R-IN) 1 electoral vote, 27.45% popular vote

H. Ross Perot (I-TX)/James Stockdale (I-IL) 0 electoral votes, 18.91% popular vote
The county map:
5laBeeI.png
 
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