It was going to be a Pre-Election budget ready for the Labour Party to present their case to win a historic third general election. The impending third term for the Labour party looked more likely than ever for one simple reason the conservatives had imploded.As the budget began Gordon started with the economic figures with growth rates of 3% in 2005 , 3.2% in 2006, 3.1% in 2007 , 3.2% in 2008 and 3.3% in 2009 and 3.2% in 2010. He reported budget surpluses of £73 billions in 2005 , £80 billions in 2006 , £89 billions in 2007 , £95 billions in 2008 , £102 billions in 2009 , £110 billions in 2010. The Economic state of the country was one of a constant expansion.
Front Line services were the key part, then here was this the NHS Budget rose by £15 billion. This was to be directed in to the maintaining of the front line care. With NHS funding at £86 billions there was a genuine feel good factor along with the doubling in education funding from £44 billions to £88 billions.Brown pledged an extra £7 billion for education. The higher levels of spending on front line services was benifical and people did feel that their school was better and that their hospital had improved also the radical regulation of the rail and bus industry in reducing fares had helped.
The Taxation system had hardly been changed since 1997, the basic rate had been brought down fro 24% to 22%, The 10% lower rate of tax had been vital in being able to cut taxes for the lower paid. The Personal allowance had been raised to £8,500 and the 20% starting threshold would be raised to £25,000 but also the raising of the top rate of tax threshold from £45,000 to £50,000. It was a Pre-Election Budget that could very well win them the election.
It was the Final Prime Ministers Question before the Election, the 4 years that Bill Cash had been leader had been a torrid period with there being constant disputes over the policies and mainly there being fights on Europe, But the PMQs had never been his strong point though he had been a debater than many had thought. The Debate went like this.
'Mr Speaker in the last election the Prime Minister pledged not to raise National Insurance contributions, he then raised National Insurance contributions, so why should anyone believe him ever again' Blair robustly stood up and said 'We made specific pledges on Income tax and we have kept to that, his plans would to be paying for the NHS his plans would involve paying half of the costs there is no plan more absurd than that and we are proud that the money that goes into our NHS and at least under this government the National Health service is safe' Cash Stood up and asked his second question 'In 1997 they pledged not to introduce tuition fees and then they introduced tuition fees and in 2001 he pledged we will not raise tuition fees and have legislation to prevent them and then he raised tuition fees, so once again why should the people trust them ever again' . Blair fought back by saying 'It's perfectly true we did raise fees in order to allow us to meet the pledge of allow half of students to go into university in contrast to the 30% in 1997. But let's just remind these tories if they cared about education they wouldnt have voted 16 times against the rises in education funding'.
Cash continued by focusing on the record for Crime by saying 'Well he was asked about his broken pledges on top-up fees and national insurance and he says nothing about them in 1997 he promised to get a firm control over Immigration but since then Immigration has tripled so why should people ever trust them again' Blair fought back by saying 'Immigration controls are vital but lets look it this pragmatically that's if the right honourable gentleman the leader of the oppisition can do any form of pragmatism that the amount of immigration we must have must be how much our economy can take and I say on Immigration yes it is an issue and it should be taken seriously but it should be debated not exploited'. Cash continued by saying 'So here they are again in 1997 they promised to be tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime and since then crime has doubled so what's happend there' Blair was very pissed at the sugesiton that crime has risen so he decided to stick it to him 'Let me just remind him what the chief comissioner of wales said about the conservative party ad quite improperly seeks to say that there is rising crime when there is a clear fact that both crime has been falling locally and nationally for many years so we have the strongest economy, falling unemployment and investment in our NHS and our schools and that is in contrast which will put our economic stability at risk and have cuts in public services once people get that choice then I will know how they will choose'.
Cash went back saying 'He talks about his record but his Deputy chief election co-ordinator (Alan Milburn) says that his biggest fear is that this election will become a referendum on the labour party is that what the Prime Minister thinks to' Blair fought back saying 'I think it's a choice between a conservative party that wehn it was office had unemployment at 3 million, had interest rates at 10% for four years, had boom and bust recessions twice, that ended cutting spending our NHS and schools and I think eh choice and a labour government that has deliverd over the last 8 years economic stability , low morgatges , low inflaiton and record investment in our NHS and schools and when I think the public look at the record of the conservatives and the fact that there pledges are exactly the ones they rejected in 2001 then they would be able to look at the record and I know what choice they would choose'.
Cash starts back on his final question by saying 'The Prime Minister talks about his record I will tell him about his record 'Taxes Up, Crime Up, Immigration Up, MRSA Up, Waiting Times Up and now lets have a look at what's gone down, Take home Pay Down, Pensions Down, Productivity growth Down, Manufacturing Employment Down. Detection rates Down after eight years of Labour government we are locking up teachers not yobs and NHS system so bad that pensioners who can't wait for an NHS dentistery are pulling out their own teeth, Isn't it clear that the choice is clear between a out of touch Labour Government or a government that will care for hard working Britains'. The Final remark Blair made before the election campaign it went like this 'I think it's a choice, people remember the years before 1997 people remember the people that lost their homes in the recession, that lost their jobs in the recession. Who ended up paying on morgagtges that they couldn't afford. They remember the winter crisis ever year in the National Health Service, they remember the outside toilets and creaking classrooms in the schools. And what we will remind them between now and polling day is what we have now and what is therefore at risk because what we had now is the economic stability, the low inflation greater investment in our national health service and in our schools. And what I say to the British people is this economic stability is at risk you job is at risk the economy is at risk and therefore when you make that desicison on May 7th realise what you haev uner 18 years of a Labour goverment and realise that if these tories get back in they will destroy Britain'.
The PMQs had been the most fiesty yet with both leaders just fighting each other but with an election looking near certain it looked certain Labour will win.
The Manifesto was the third term and therefore the manifesto showed that they were capable of self renewal in order to change the Labour party and to win the next election:
To meet the NHS Funding Target by 2007 and reviewing the NHS Spending
Building 100 new hospitals by 2010
A new 16 week maixmum waiting targets.
250 new city academies by 2010
Uprating the Education Maintance Allowance to £40 a week by 2008
Re-Introduction of Maintance Grants of £3,500
A fundemental review in the University Education financing.
35,000 community support officers.
Tripling the Investment in drug treatment and rehabiltion centres
£4 billion more on defence spending
Introducing a new double lock on pensions to make sure they rise by Prices or 2% whichever is higher.
No rises in the Basic or Top rate of Income Tax
Raising stamp duty threshold to £150,000
Raising the number of sure start centres from 130 to 390 by 2012/13
Cutting Transport fares by 10%
65% cut in CO2 Emissions by 2025
Abolishing Hereditary Peers in the House of Lords
The Labour Manifesto was a logical path on building what a third term labour goverment will do for the country to an extent they did play it safe knowing that they were going to win the next election they could promise what they liked.
| Party | Result |
| Labour | 48% |
| Conservatives | 28% |
| Lib Dems | 24% |
| Party | Seat Forecast |
| Labour | 423 (+3) |
| Conservatives | 134 (-5) |
| Lib Dems | 61 (-9) |
The Manifesto with just a month till polling day presented a clear narrative that the tories were not going to win this election and that the question was on the size of the Labour Majority.
The Conservatives knew that they were starting from an incredibly weak position they were polling between 26%-33% and therefore though they had come from n exceeding low point of 139 MPs and it looked certain that they would gain the tories had an insanely bad 11 months since the summer of sleaze and nobody knew what would occour but as the manifesto was released. Bill Cash declared it a 'bold document'. Knowing he was gone in a month he decided to create a manifesto he would beleive in.
People should be allowed to go private and the NHS should pay 60% of the private costs
All Whitehall targets would be scrapped in relation to the Waiting targets and maximum waiting times
Introducing financial indepdence for all hospitals
1 million new school places by 2010/11
The abolsihing of the Independent Appeals Panels in order to enforce school discipline
No Student Fees but No Maintance grants
50,000 extra police officers
A 500% increase in drug treatment centres
The Introduction of Mandotary Minimum sentences
A state pension linked to earnings and prices
Private Insurance to fund social care
£1,000 cut in council tax
Cutting the top rate of tax to 30% by 2011
A In/Out referundum on the EU
Limiting Immigration to 50,000
Cutting the benifits on single parents
Cutting the number of MPs to 500
The manifesto had some good policies such as the relinking of pensions with prices and earnings, the hiring of 50,000 police officers and with a five fold increase in drug treatment centres. But there were policies which were abused the EU Referundum, the private social care insurance along with Labour called the 'Single mother tax' which was condemed as tory bigotry.
| Party | Result |
| Labour | 44% |
| Conservatives | 29% |
| Lib Dems | 27% |
| Party | Seat Forecast |
| Labour | 392 (-28) |
| Conservatives | 153 (+14) |
| Lib Dems | 72 (+2) |
The Labour Majority would come down but it would still be 138 seats. But the tories look no where near from coming into power.
Paddy Ashdown announced that this was going to be his final election though his ressurection of the Lib Dems had been monumental taking the part from 18 MPs in 1992 to 70 MPs in 2001. He decided to go out on a high with his final one.
- Introducing new 12 week waiting lists by 2009
- A new National Care service to make social care free
- Free eye and Dental treatment
- Reducing Presciription Charges to £5 and abolshing them
- Cutting class sizes to 20
- Making coursework the dominant factor wihin GSCEs and A-Levels
- Abolish Universtiy Fees
- 15,000 more police officers
- The legalisation of cannabis
- No Introduction of ID Cards
- Raising the state pension to £250 a week by 2015
- Abolsihing the Council tax in favour of the Local Income tax
- 50% top rate for incomes above £100,000
- £200 a week maternity pay for 12 months
- 75% cut in CO2 Emissions by 2025
- Cut transport fares by 8%
- Free transport for the Over 60s and Under 21s
- New Single transferable vote system for electoral reform
| Party | Result |
| Labour | 43% |
| Lib Dems | 30% |
| Conservatives | 27% |
| Party | Seat Forecast |
| Labour | 391 (-29) |
| Conservatives | 141 (+2) |
| Lib Dems | 85 (+15) |
Over the course of the next few weeks they are going to be very few opportunities for the leaders to reach a mass audiuence but this was one of them. All three leaders were going to be question for 40 minutes a piece lasting the full 2 hours. First up the leader of the Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown. Ashdown was going to fight his last election as the Leader of the Lib Dems. Ashdown was questioned on the issues of Tax, Health,Education,Crime and this is how it went.
When asked about tax, Ashdown was mainly asked about an increase in taxes with the top rate, Ashdown made a simple point he said
'Yes Labour have radically increased the funding for public services which by the way we voted for and the tories voted against. But in order to fully rebuild not just the NHS but our schools but our police and the welfare state then surely it is right that we then say ok those who can afford to pay more should pay more. And by the way you see we are Anti-Aspiration the tax rate we are proposing for the six figure earners is less than what Margret Thatcher had throughout the first 9 years of her time as prime minister'.
When It came to Health Spending the Liberal Democrats had pledged to invest an extra £13 billion a year saying
'Look in this country we have had underfunded health service and yes Labour have spent time properly funding it but we have hospitals that have not been refurbished in the last 20 years, we have doctors who are underpaid and overworked and we must reform the NHS but not just the whole physical element of it but also the entire social care element so that we have a properly funded social care system so that nobody has to pay for their social care',
When Moving onto Education the Lib Dems had promised to abolish tuition fees and re-invest substantially in secondary education, Ashdown did say that
'With education being the silver bullet to everything surely it would be vital for all of us to make sure that whilst we cut unemployment and re-invest highly in our public services but by radically increasing funding for our education system that would do a great deal to increase our education funding and solve the long term issues'.
When It came to crime policy, Ashdown had decided to focus on the concepts of rehabiliation whilst promising an extra 15,000 police officers. The use of the extra police officers along with the rapid increase in rehabiltaiton services Ashdown will allow us
'to tackle crime completley'
Bill Cash
As Bill cash came up he knew he was up against some serious odds against him, Cash was a hard right tory and therefore wasn't very keen on the pure one nation doctrine.And therefore decided to keep being asked about the quality of life issues which domianted the country what had been effective of the Labour Campaign is that they had made the election focused on the issues of health and education. The key points of this discussion between the audience and Mr Cash were health and Education and here is how it went.
When asked about how much money he would provide for the NHS, Cash didn't want to specify an actual figure saying
' health spending will rise but we will be far more economical in the way we spend it because we have pledged to make Britain far more economical in the way we spend money' asked about why he hadn't specified a cash figure he says
'Because cash figures have always risen and the event is to make sure that the spending is less than the growth in the economy' and David Dimbelby asked would you support real terms increase in the NHS he said
'Of course i would' and then he was caught out because he had just pledged two fundementaly contradictory things. Which Labour would exploit in the campaign.
The tories had also pledged to make people pay £10 for a GP appointment which had been 2 days after the manifesto, If there was a closer thing to political stupidity no one had come across it. Because this would be in effect dismantling the NHS when he was asked he then remarked an authentic view
'We need to recover from the sloppy socialism'. That was widely interperted as a means of dismantling the NHS and would be the key part of dwindling position of the conservative Party.
And as for Education well the main issue was over Grammar schools, the entire debate had been around the new tory policy to bring back more grammar schools. Throughout the last week the tories had made several policies on the go. The campaign had been atrocious and Cash had pledged to lift the ban on Grammar schools but the entire question time for him was a complete disaster.
Tony Blair
After running the country for 8 years, Tony Blair was still popular because of the growing living standards and the growing economy the use of the strong economy along with the rising expenditure in the front line services had helped in boosting his popularity but also a conservative party that was completely dominated by sleaze and hypocrisy and by shaping the election on labour terms on health and education which had helped Labour massively.
When it came to Health tony Blair was asked what can he forsee the future reforms to the NHS being dominated with Money or private reforms. He said
'Well look you cant simply change the NHS without cash, thats why we are investing £10 billion extra a year which has led to the hiring of 80,000 new nurses and 50,000 more doctors. And therefore we have to keep going in properly investing in our health service but though we have to keep the investment coming in unlike the toires which seem dedicated to the stupid concept of forcing people to pay for their healthcare which is utterly absurd and shouldn't be done (long applause) but when it comes to the reform let me explain with the walk in centres where people with less critical illness can be treated and this has cut the waiting lists by over a million so we can try and reform the NHS and put money in it'. The solid raise in NHS Expenditure had helped in radically raising the spending on front line services had helped in boosting the popularity of the government.
When asked about Education, there has been a key moment for years with the development in substantial of amount of cash in the state sector and he says in regards to education 'The reforms we have made over the last eight years in raising the funding for the state education system we are the party that also believes that in creating a society that has genuine opportunity for all because in that society of opportunity for all and by levelling up the entire country once and for all surely this is the best way of ensuring a greater level of economic stability and through greater levels of jobs is by creating an educated society'. The Domestic quality of life issues had been labour's strong point which is why they were still leading in the polls by substantial margins.
There were the two main discussion points which were the highlights and the Lib Dems had come out of that pretty well,Labour had come out well and the tories might as well have not shown up. Here is what the public made of it.
| Leader | Result |
| Tony Blair | 42% |
| Paddy Ashdown | 37% |
| Bill Cash | 20% |
| Party | Result |
| Labour | 43% |
| Lib Dems | 32% |
| Conservatives | 25% |
| Party | Result |
| Labour | 391 (-29) |
| Conservatives | 113 (-26) |
| Lib Dems | 106 (+36) |
Over the course of the final week the leaders were all interviewed by Jeremy Paxman. The first was indeed Paddy Ashdown, Ashdown was very good having talked about the NHS and Education and focusing his policies on winning over people who were on the centre left. However the momentum he had secured had faded a bit but they were still poling at 28%. The Conservatives had a torrid campaign constantly batling for second place. And Bill cash was far better at the interview but the polciies were still toxic and sleaze was still prominent. And as for the Prime Minister well he had successfully remained at the top of the polls throughout the last 11 years but this campaign had been fought on the traditional labour topics of health,education and Unemployment and he was defending well the record of the Labour Goverment.
| Party | Result |
| Labour | 44% |
| Conservatives | 28% |
| Lib Dems | 27% |
| Party | Result |
| Labour | 393 (-27) |
| Conservatives | 150 (+11) |
| Lib Dems | 74 (+4) |
DD-David Dimbelby
PS-Peter Snow
JP-Jeremy Paxman
AM-Andrew Marr
DD- Well Good evening and it's all over at last we will know wether or not if Tony Blair will be back in No.10 with a third term or will Bill cash win the election and defy the polls or will Paddy Ashdown finally be a kingmaker. Up there is Jeremy Paxman who will be interviewing the politicians as the results come in.
JP- Yes well up here we will be interviewing politicains and asking them what went right and what went wrong knowing that in 8 hours time they might not be in a Job.
DD- And up there is Peter Snow who will be looking at the results asz they come in and using his graphics to show what it means..
PS- Yes, David this time we will be more adventrous than we have ever been before showing how th evotes have changed in hour house of commons but also our traiditonal swingometer to show who is going to win the election and much more.
DD- And now to our exit poll, this was comisisoned by asking 33,000 people not how they intended to vote but how did they vote and here it is. 10 o clcok and we are predicting another labour landslide. And here it is, Labour have won 401 seats that is down 19 . The tories have 125 seats thats a. decrease of 14 seats . And the Lib Dems have got 91 seats that's up 21. And so a Labour Majority if our exit poll is right of a 156 . Andrew
AM- Well David If this poll is right and that is an IF, Labour will be celebrating an unprecented third victory in a row. With another three figure majority and therefore would be beaitng Mrs Thatcher's record on aggregate. But for the tories well once again they have lossed seats but this is atrocious because if these vote share figures are right they might actually have less votes than the lib dems. And if this Paddy Asdhown's final campaign well he's leaving it on a huge high with 91 MPs the Liberal Democrats have not only gained seats but also obtained their highest seats since 1923 and the highest share of the vote in 95 years.
DD- Thank you for that, Peter what have you got for us.
PS- Thank You David so here is the share of the vote Labour 43% of the vote, the Consevraitves 26% of the vote and the Liberal Democrats 30% of the vote. Which is a swing of 1% from Conservatives to Labour. But the big winners are the Lib Dems because if that poll is right they have actually obtained a 3.5% swing from the Consevratives to Labour and it looks like both parties could be giving seats to the Lib Dems.
| Parties | Seats | Votes | Percentage |
| Labour | 405 (-15) | 12,231,584 | 42.8% (-1.3%) |
| Conservatives | 115 (-24) | 8,102,561 | 27.5% (-1.7%) |
| Lib Dems | 101 (+31) | 9,883,561 | 32.5% (+6.4%) |
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The Labour party had undoubtedly won a third victory and had laid the foundations for a fourth victory, the tories had narrowly hung on to the position of the oppisiton party and the Lib Dems had won 101 MPs which was huge for them and this being Paddy Ashdown's final election he had taken the party from the 20 MPs in 1992 to 101 just thirteen years later. But now whats next.
Post Election Reaction
New Tory Leader
Pensions Reform
Labour Leadership?
Energy Policy
And Much More
