Olaf II of Denmark lives another 30 years and marries Hedwig of Anjou, making him ruler of both the Kalmar Union and Poland. How can we through this scenario end up with a union of Poland and Denmark?
Polish Pride: A Union of Poland and Denmark
- Thread starter Kaloryferowy
- Start date
Why Hedwig is going to marry Olaf? It is more likely, that Hedwig's daughter would marry Eric of Pomerania.
I mean wedding her with Olaf does seem to bring some immidiate positives to poles. Danish army could easily join with poles to get rid of the Teutonic Order. While smaller then its lithuanian counter part, it was better trained, plus you could use the danish fleet to block teuton trade routes. Not to mention Jagiello joined the election late in the game so early Olaf would have to compete with the mildly unpopular William of the house of Habsburg and the local duke Ziemowit. Both of these guys had some considerable opposition. Olaf doesnt have the same problem. Olaf like Habsburg brings with him an army, but unlike him there is no threat of germanization. He's the perfect candidate. Benefits for Olaf is having yet another realm in the Kalmar union.
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Olaf was squarely in his mother’s shadow until at least 1387 (when he died otl) and she was mainly concerned with the north. It’d take a major shift for her to try something like this, especially in the mid-to-late 1380’s when the chance to acquire Sweden came along. It’s a cool idea though.
First thing: expansion into Ruthenia and stopping Lithuanian raids was seen as more important thing that regaining Pomerelia by Polish elites of the time.
Second thing: Teutonic Order was not seen as enemy in 1380s, Jogaila did great job to convoince Poles, that TO is their mortal enemy. TO was after all aCatholic institution and fighting it was seen as sin.
I dont agree that the poles didnt perceive the order as a threat. Since the fragmentation of Poland the main policy of the nation was getting back the land lost back then. It was employeed by Wladyslav Elbow-high and then by his son Casimir (the union with Hungary put that on the back burner but it was still there - Ziemowit gathered his support by claiming he will regain danzig after getting elected). There was a reason why poles tried to appeal their case in front of the pope so many times - they wanted danzig back. So with Jagiello or without him Poland will strike at the order sooner rather then later. If it truly were a sin PLC wouldnt get such a PR boost after Grunwald. Not to mention you could still try to stop the lituanian raids by baptising Jagiello (the lithuanian king had to choose to be either baptised by poles or the order or go orthodox) being catholic brought him most benefits so i believe he would still go for it.
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Yeah, this is a cool idea. It really requires maneuvering around some serious issues.
I'm less familiar with the Polish side of things during this election and the marriage game for Jawiga's hand, but they had issues with both the TO and Lithuania. What happened with Lithuania solved many of the problems with that country, and thus allowed them to team up against the TO. While I don't know how realistic teaming up with the TO against Lithuania was, there's still a certain sense to that as well. Not allying with Lithuania, thus allowing the raids to continue, and then attacking the TO seems the worst of both worlds. So I don't think any such marriage could be rooted in a desire to attack the Teutonic Order.
On the Danish side, there are several issues.
1) As Atterdag said, Queen Margaret is the one ruling even if Olaf is reigning. Olaf is justfifteen fourteen for most of 1385, and hasn't even assumed his majority. Margaret's concerns and focus are not at all concerning the other side of the Baltic. She's looking at Sweden, focusing on ensuring the Hansa returns the Skane castles it was due to that year, or politicking in Denmark as she's still trying to strengthen the crown. Making her reconsider basically requires changing the entire political landscape she was dealing with. It should also be noted that when it came to marry Eric the I, Margaret specifically decided to not seek a bride for him from the Baltic entities. The situation was too delicate there, and a marriage could have thrown things off.
2) I also doubt that Denmark would at all be an option against the TO at this time. Denmark's fleet wasn't insignificant, but it wasn't the dominant naval power in the Baltic. The Confederation of Cologne against King Valdemar also started forming when he confiscated Prussian Hansa ships, thus angering the TO and thus encouraging a widespread alliance of Hansa cities against Denmark. Margaret not only is focused on Sweden at this time, but her general strategy against the Hansa was deflection, dividing, negotiation, etc. Attacking Prussia would basically be handing the Hanseatic cities she was focusing on an easy method of encouraging another widespread Hanseatic coalition against Denmark.
If you wanted a Polish-Danish personal union due to marriage between Olaf and Hedwig in 1385, you have to have started changed years before. Create an international situation where Margaret is in a position of looking for allies in the Baltic. Like, Albert pisses off the Swedish nobility earlier, they offer the crown to Olaf, and Sweden is taken basically without a fight and Mecklenburg doesn't unleash the Victual Brothers (Albert and his son die in a shipwreck or something). All before Hedwig marries. Without that issue, a Margaret where Olaf's rule is fully secure over the three kingdoms might be willing to entertain a marriage like this that drastically ties Danish policies with Poland's.
I'd think a slightly more realistic option probably requires Hedwig to marry Jogaila in 1385, only for the latter to pass away at a suitable time. Vytautas would likely succeed Lithuania if Jogaila died childless, and he is married. With the union with Lithuania broken, it would open the chance for Olaf to become her second husband. The Teutonic Order taking over Gotland like OTL, but in worst circumstances or handling the aftermath worst, could serve to direct Margaret/Olaf's attention against the TO. That might be enough to push Poland towards that marriage.
I'm less familiar with the Polish side of things during this election and the marriage game for Jawiga's hand, but they had issues with both the TO and Lithuania. What happened with Lithuania solved many of the problems with that country, and thus allowed them to team up against the TO. While I don't know how realistic teaming up with the TO against Lithuania was, there's still a certain sense to that as well. Not allying with Lithuania, thus allowing the raids to continue, and then attacking the TO seems the worst of both worlds. So I don't think any such marriage could be rooted in a desire to attack the Teutonic Order.
On the Danish side, there are several issues.
1) As Atterdag said, Queen Margaret is the one ruling even if Olaf is reigning. Olaf is just
2) I also doubt that Denmark would at all be an option against the TO at this time. Denmark's fleet wasn't insignificant, but it wasn't the dominant naval power in the Baltic. The Confederation of Cologne against King Valdemar also started forming when he confiscated Prussian Hansa ships, thus angering the TO and thus encouraging a widespread alliance of Hansa cities against Denmark. Margaret not only is focused on Sweden at this time, but her general strategy against the Hansa was deflection, dividing, negotiation, etc. Attacking Prussia would basically be handing the Hanseatic cities she was focusing on an easy method of encouraging another widespread Hanseatic coalition against Denmark.
If you wanted a Polish-Danish personal union due to marriage between Olaf and Hedwig in 1385, you have to have started changed years before. Create an international situation where Margaret is in a position of looking for allies in the Baltic. Like, Albert pisses off the Swedish nobility earlier, they offer the crown to Olaf, and Sweden is taken basically without a fight and Mecklenburg doesn't unleash the Victual Brothers (Albert and his son die in a shipwreck or something). All before Hedwig marries. Without that issue, a Margaret where Olaf's rule is fully secure over the three kingdoms might be willing to entertain a marriage like this that drastically ties Danish policies with Poland's.
I'd think a slightly more realistic option probably requires Hedwig to marry Jogaila in 1385, only for the latter to pass away at a suitable time. Vytautas would likely succeed Lithuania if Jogaila died childless, and he is married. With the union with Lithuania broken, it would open the chance for Olaf to become her second husband. The Teutonic Order taking over Gotland like OTL, but in worst circumstances or handling the aftermath worst, could serve to direct Margaret/Olaf's attention against the TO. That might be enough to push Poland towards that marriage.
At the time of Jadwiga's coronation peace between Poland and TO lasted from decades (and continued when Jadwiga was alive-she found it to be sin to fight against Catholic institution). Nobles of Lesser Poland (dominant Polish province) wanted access to the wealth of Ruthenia and wanted Lithuanian raids, which ravaged their estates, to stop.
Well, there wasn't much of election to begin with. William was not unpopular, he was simply ignored because he was insignificant and did not bring any benefits to Poland. And how exactly does he bring threat of germanization to Poland? Unless I missed something Austria does not share any common border with Poland. And Siemowit did not bother himself with any election, he simply forced nobles to recognize his claim to the throne (the acts made by Siemowit's supporters call him and his descendants "natural lords").
Okay so following CaedmonCouslands suggestion lets change the POD a bit
1385 things progress as normal. Hedwig marries Jagiello and Lithuania gets baptised. In 1410 the forces of poland- lithuania and teuton armies wage war on the plains of Grunwald. Jagiello provoked by the teutons decides to form an attack, a decision that will cost him greatly. Outnumbered teutonic forces mount a miraculous defence and halt the invading forces. As teutonic forces advance on Warsaw they are once again met with resistance near Czerwińsk. There polish lithuanian forces cleverly using the local forest to hide the cavalry, managing to suprise the enemy. The battle is won and the grandmaster of the order is captured. Ulrich is forced to surrender. The lands of samogita and the city of memel are ceeded to Lithuania while the rest of prussia is incorporated into the polish crown. This historic victory does however come at a cost. Jagiello while fleeing from plains of Grunwald is injured by a stray arrow. While his physicians attempted to treat the wound the infection began to fester. On february 1411 the king finally succumbs. As the country mourns its king Vytautas assends to the lithuanian throne and declares the separation of Lithuania from Poland. Once again Hedwig will need to marry. A new election will now have to take place.
This time there are only 2 candidates to the polish throne. The previous candidate - the masovian duke Ziemowit and a newcomer - Olaf the second. The danish king wins the election promising to use the danish force to beat prussians into submission (after PLC split many prussians rebelled against their polish vasals after sejm imposed a tax to fill the nations coffers after the expensive war with the order)
What happens afterwords?
1385 things progress as normal. Hedwig marries Jagiello and Lithuania gets baptised. In 1410 the forces of poland- lithuania and teuton armies wage war on the plains of Grunwald. Jagiello provoked by the teutons decides to form an attack, a decision that will cost him greatly. Outnumbered teutonic forces mount a miraculous defence and halt the invading forces. As teutonic forces advance on Warsaw they are once again met with resistance near Czerwińsk. There polish lithuanian forces cleverly using the local forest to hide the cavalry, managing to suprise the enemy. The battle is won and the grandmaster of the order is captured. Ulrich is forced to surrender. The lands of samogita and the city of memel are ceeded to Lithuania while the rest of prussia is incorporated into the polish crown. This historic victory does however come at a cost. Jagiello while fleeing from plains of Grunwald is injured by a stray arrow. While his physicians attempted to treat the wound the infection began to fester. On february 1411 the king finally succumbs. As the country mourns its king Vytautas assends to the lithuanian throne and declares the separation of Lithuania from Poland. Once again Hedwig will need to marry. A new election will now have to take place.
This time there are only 2 candidates to the polish throne. The previous candidate - the masovian duke Ziemowit and a newcomer - Olaf the second. The danish king wins the election promising to use the danish force to beat prussians into submission (after PLC split many prussians rebelled against their polish vasals after sejm imposed a tax to fill the nations coffers after the expensive war with the order)
What happens afterwords?
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And Hedwig just agrees to this despite of Vytautas being HER vassal whom he kinda was since https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ostrów_Agreement? I think that instead of war with Prussians, the war with Lithuania would be more probable since Hedwig would want to beat Vytautas into submission (she didn't really care about his opinion, she demanded even him to pay taxes to her). And I don't think why this TO invasion of Poland is needed, the war could go as IOTL with Poles capturing Marienburg and Jogaila dying shortly after the capture, they'd hold Prussia anyways on the basis on right of conquest. Prussian estates (since Old Prussians were politically irrelevant peasantry by the time) would probably ignore change of their overlord, they were quite passive as far as politics was involved in 1410s-early 1420s. And didn't Jogaila and Jadwiga have any intercourse between 1399 and 1410?
Because they had a daughter, Elizabeth Bonifacia born in 1399, so if Jadwiga survived, her daughter should as well since they both died bc of troubles related to childbirth, with possibly a son or more.
And in 1410s Sejm didn't have any established powers, much less the power to decide about whole tax shtick, and it even wasn't called Sejm yet. Ziemowit is already married and no one would question Hedwig's right to the throne. She's also an adult woman, she would choose husband on her own, her first husband was chosen by nobility only because she was an scared child and Wilhelm Habsburg was an weakling with no political power.
And what became with Hungarian crown? Hedwig has a claim for it and I hardly could imagine that imprisonment of Sigismund of Luxembourg done by that guy https://hu.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kanizsai_János going as IOTL - either Sigismund would be offed by conspirators, or sent to Kraków and released only under condition that he'd abdicate Hungarian crown.
So sovereign Queen of both Poland and Hungary would be free to marry at her own choosing and I don't think that she'd choose someone significant, much less some reigning monarch like Olaf.
The different outcome of the grunwald battle was made mostly because i liked the image of a fleeing king getting shot with a stray arrow. It doesnt change to overall course of events so i indulged myself. I admit i dont know much about the state of the hungarian crown but would the hungarian nobility accept her as queen? They certainly didnt want her a couple of years back when her father snuffed it. I imagine they would want her even less now that she is king of poland. And would she have the resources to battle the lithuanians so soon after the battle with the teutons (with hungarys help sure but without their backing im not optimistic about her chances). As for her choosing a candidate we can tweak her character a bit so she is willing to go the extra mile for the good of the nation.
So what if the scenario goes a bit like this? Jagiello dies and lithuania rebells. Sigmund is offed, Hedwig tries to get into the hungarian throne however faces hard opposition and is thus unsucessful. She decides to attack Vytautas with the forces of poland alone but is quickly outmaneuvered. She loses, lithuania takes red ruthenia and goes back to being its own nation (only catholic this time). Poland meanwhile desperatly needs to rebuild its strenght. Pressured by nobles she decides to enter a political marriage with Olaf the second making poland part of the ever expanding kalmar union.
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They didn't have a choice. The consensus among historians is that the story about Hedwig being Louis's chosen heir in Hungary is just outright bullshit. Louis I intended all his lands and titles to pass to Mary of Anjou and Hungary indeed did. Poland was another story, but it was mainly because a lot of people didn't recognize Angevins as heirs and supported Siemowit of Mazovia hereditary claim (the acts of allegiance which Siemowit received from his supporters involved swearing oath to him and his heirs) and that's why the civil war begun in the first place. Nobility started making unreal demands to Mary - like living in Kraków constantly, and Sigismund didn't help in convicing the nobility not to support Siemowit by meeting with Grand Master of Teutonic Order instead of Greater Poland nobles, Elizabeth of Bosnia wanted Sigismund's position to be curbed, so she forbade Polish cities from showing any sign of obedience to Sigismund and than she had the idea to nominate Hedwig (betrothed to William Habsburg, political non-entity - so not threatening to her interests in the same way like Sigismund was - elector of Brandenburg, emperor's brother and someone with plausible claim to Poland on his own - being a great-grandson of Casimir the Great) as heir to Poland to curb Sigismund's position and than Jogaila stepped in with his offer and Elizabeth thought that he'd be as easy to manipulate as William was (she saw him as mere "barbarian") so she agreed. After her sister's death, there was an stillborn uprising in her favor in Upper Hungary (modern-day Slovakia) and the conspirators who imprisoned Sigismund in 1401 intended (IOTL) to make Jogaila himself (even without her, an rightful heiress) king. The council of barons with bishop Kanizsai at it's head ruled Hungary for like 2 weeks "in the name of Holy Crown" after Jogaila refused their offer, because he was insecure that he'd lose Poland as well and didn't want to rule Hungary. In reality, when Hedwig is alive convincing the conspirators to release Sigismund at all would be a lot harder and it's probable that conspirators could kill Sigismund (if they'd be willing to go as far as regicide is involved) or send him to Kraków as their hostages. Either way Hedwig would have supports of conspirators - so the most prominent Hungarian archbishop, archbishop of Esztergom who had right to crown Hungarian kings and a lot of poweful lords and the persons who could put up a meaningful resistance are - Stibor of Stiboricz (Pole, might be concerned with his relative's lives), Sigismund's cousins who were awarded a lot of grants in western Slovakia, count of Celje and Albert IV of Austria, but they're neutralized by the fact that Sigismund is either captive or simply dead. Under these circumstances, Hedwig is almost guaranteed to take that crown.
Vytautas's army had size of only 1/4 of Polish army mustered at Tanneberg campaign and lost it's operative ability after siege of Marienburg. Do you think that it'd be possible for Vytautas to win in such an conditions? Especially when Hedwig has whole TO's land (and unlike OTL 13 year war, she doesn't need to grant any concessions to locals) ?
Okay lets tackle the problem of Vytautas. So since i already wrote about a Grunwald defeat lets make use of that, Since there isnt one agreed army count of Grunwald battle i am gonna algo with those number: 10 500 polish troops, 6000 lithuanian and 11000 teutonic. Lets say that while retreating from Grunwald the force that holds the advancing teutons while others retreat is mostly polish. Due to this defeat the PLC looses 2000 troops (1500 polish 500 lithuanian) 20% mortality rate which is more or less realistic death toll for battles like this. If later in Czerwińsk victors have a casualty rate of around 5% that gives us 13775 troops alive and kicking. Again assuming around half of those dead are polish that gives us around 8600 troops left against Vytautas's 2600 which is still frankly not enough for my scenario. If we tweak the scenario one more time making Vytautas more patient and resourceful he could propably recruit around 4400 in total (instead of staging the previous rebelions he bides his time and makes powerful friends). The siege of Marienburg doesnt happen because the plc has captured the grandmaster making sieging the castle pointless. With a bit of luck and a really good strategy he could win against Poland. But that still lives additional forces from both Prussia and potencialy from Hungary. Anybody has any ideas how to take care of them? Or how many troops Hedwig can reasonably collect from prussia. The teutons managed 11000 but they were expelled and there wasnt enough time for the poles to organize their own system of collecting levies from there so my guess would be a liberal 2000-3000 troops (do correct me if i am horribly wrong about this)
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Poland-Lithuania is more time-appropriate name, since PLC was only created in 1569 and the union of Krewo made Lithuania part of Polish crown.
That would not lead to the result you're expecting. At first, first Vytautas's rebellion was before union with Poland and was practically unavoidable - it was the part of Lithuanian civil war fought even earlier between Jogaila and his paternal uncle Kęstutis - Vytautas's own father. And avoiding this civil war makes very marriage of Jogaila and Hedwig doubtful - Kęstutis was against christianisation of Lithuania at all, so if Jogaila still married Hedwig - well, that would result in civil war you wanted to avoid, so I would go with scenario which is at least somewhat believable - avoiding Vytautas's second rebellion - so there would no Lithuanian Civil War fought from 1389 to 1392. But this wouldn't bolster Vytautas's position - he'd remain mere duke of Lutsk, maybe he'd get Vitebsk after Svitrigaila rebellion of 1393 would be defeated - but still nothing close to full power in Lithuania. Jogaila's governor of Lithuania (he didn't even have title of Grand Duke) was his brother, Skirgaila. Skirigaila was poisoned in Kiev, when he was supposed to become Duke after ousting another brother of him and Jogaila from power. Now, he would remain in Vilnius, so probably outside of reach of his OTL murderers. He was loyal af to Jogaila & Hedwig - so a lot of Vytautas-connected problems would not take place, economic blockade of TO won't be lifted in 1397, Vorskla campaing would not take place. By erasing Vytautas's second rebellion you only made him semi-irrelevant duke in Volhynia (he knew that as well, that's why he even rebelled in the first place). Not to mention that a lot of people would survive here - Jogaila's and Skirgaila's another brother (yes, there were plenty of em') Karigaila or Spytko II of Melsztyn, duke of Podole (who was killed during battle of Vorskla IOTL) and their survival might impact campaign against TO.
Okay so stoping the rebelions is a bust. How about Vytautas while he declares independence from Poland also decides to convert to orthodoxy, he promises a few russian principalities a small part of lithuanian eastern lands in exchange for their military support. This should be enough to get his army number to 4400
This would cause Lithuanian boyars to cease to support him, they despised Orthodoxy and giving away any land to Moscow (as it was only principality able to give serious help to Vytautas) would be extremely unpopular. Look how Svitrigaila's support quickly melted after he started showing favors to Orthodox people and Poland was a lot weaker than it is here. IMHO, for Hedwig marries Olaf scenario, your best shot would be Jogaila dying between 1395 and 1399.
Okay but if we adjust it and say he dies in that timeframe that still leaves a problem. As it has been pointed out the country of Poland and its ruler Hedwig would both be in a very fine position. Lithuania likely wouldnt split from Poland even if Jogaila died because they still need that alliance to defeat the teutons. And because Poland is in a great position Hedwig can afford to marry someone she actually wants to marry. I doubt a danish ruler would fall into that category.
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But it'd be a lot worse position than your previous scenario - with TO intact, Sigismund in Hungary and Vytautas not suffering the consequences of Vorskla, it's possible that Hedwig would actually want to marry Olaf as a someone who could help her in the task of protecting her inheritance. It's not ideal scenario, but best-positioned to achieve your result.
Okay lets try something different entirely. I did read that Wilhelm Habsburg managed to enter Wawel before the marriage between Hedwig and Jagiello took place. If the polish nobles reacted a bit slower in chasing him out Wilhelm could have had enough time to kidnap Hedwig and marry her. Her mother Elizabeth already agreed to the union, pressured by the Habsburgs so if Wilhelm managed to marry her she wouldnt oppose this union. Needless to say in such a scenario Poland is not gonna have a good time. Choosing a Habsburg means pols dont get any additional troops and unlike with Ziemowit the position of the monarch in the country is far weaker. All diplomatic actions that focused on improving relations between Poland and Lithuania would have been thrown out the window by this development. The raids that plagued the eastern portion of Poland would continue. Jagiello himself would most likely have to declare Lithuania either a vassal state of the TO or accept orthodoxy and marry the daughter of Dmitry of the Don (unlike with Hedwig he wouldnt have gained a crown). I do want your opinions about which way he would go. Either way in 1395 Wilhelm dies from some wound infection. Hedwig, once again being in the role of the king of Poland now needs to look for powerful alliances to strenghen the polish crown.
Now on the other side of the fence we have Olaf the second. Turns out the danish king has a natural diplomatic disposition, a talent which his mother utilises to rally dissatisfied swedish nobles to his side. This combined with some clever political manouvering allows her to expel Albert of Mecklenburg much earlier. With the throne of the kalmar union safe and secure the new formed state turn its sight towards the Hansa cities and other enemies of the crown. In 1393 Margaret sees Poland as an easy gain and encourages her son to marry Hedwig. The messangers get to work and in the spring of 1394 the wedding proceeds. What happens then?
Now on the other side of the fence we have Olaf the second. Turns out the danish king has a natural diplomatic disposition, a talent which his mother utilises to rally dissatisfied swedish nobles to his side. This combined with some clever political manouvering allows her to expel Albert of Mecklenburg much earlier. With the throne of the kalmar union safe and secure the new formed state turn its sight towards the Hansa cities and other enemies of the crown. In 1393 Margaret sees Poland as an easy gain and encourages her son to marry Hedwig. The messangers get to work and in the spring of 1394 the wedding proceeds. What happens then?
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