If Hinckley has succeded killing Reagan how would the effect be on the Republican conservative movement? Remember, Bush Sr was not all to keen on being friends with evangelicals etc that now dominate the Republican party. Will the Republicans be a more fiscal responsible party without evertyhing Reagan brought to the table?
How does Reagan assasinated affect the conservative movement?
- Thread starter mattep74
- Start date
I think Religious Right and GHW Bush would make their peace in short order, especially if the Democrats of TTL's early 1980s are still viewed as the party of Jesse Jackson and Sister Boom Boom.
Let's not forget, Bush sr. was the guy who railed against flag-burning, and sent Clarence Thomas to the top court. (And even Souter was expected to be more right-wing than he ended up.) Sure, he was at bottom an easygoing Episcopalian, but I suspect that Falwell and Robertson knew, in private, that Reagan's faith wasn't all that fiery either.
It would still be a powerful force in the GOP but without Reagan you would have less rhetorical support from the White House. I agree with @overoceans that Bush would still undertake certain conservative initiatives in order to satisfy the right, though probably not to the same extent as Reagan. (Would Bush try to appoint Bork to the Supreme Court, for example?)
Using Thomas as our template, an early 80s Bush would likely nominate someone in the same ideological ballpark as Bork, but maybe without quite the high-profile "brand" that Bork had.
Granted, if the alt-Bush's appointment turned out to be more Souter than Thomas, he probably wouldn't lose too much sleep over it.
Last edited:
Considering that Bush Sr. arguably lost the 1992 election because of raising taxes I doubt a tax cut would be coming
The deficit in 1981 wasn't what it was in 1990, plus how else would Bush appease the Reaganites in this TL?
He would anyway, he vehemently rejected the "Voodoo" advice of Reagan's economic advisers and would've pushed the same fruitless policies that he pushed in 1988. The Great Malaise would continue or worsen, and he'd lose to Hart or Jackson or whoever.
Perhaps Jack Kemp becomes more prominent? He was one of the most ardent proponents of "Reaganomics" and was the darling of the New Right in the 80s. Perhaps he's the GOP candidate in 1988?
I think Bush would probably follow most of Reagan's policies, at least those that had been publicly announced, in the first term but take a more moderate tack going forward. So you still would have seen a tax cut, since that was a campaign promise, but it might be smaller than IOTL. In terms of the Religious Right, I think Bush would have emphasized general social conservative themes such as the War on Drugs and criticizing rock music/Hollywood, but not have explicitly tied himself to evangelical Christianity to the same extent as Reagan.
Ironically, GHW Bush--at least until elected in his own right in 1984--might have to be more conservative than Reagan to avoid potential conservative primary opposition (perhaps from Jack Kemp) and deflect charges that he was "betraying Reagan's legacy." Reagan could make all sorts of compromises without much complaint from the Right because, well, he was Reagan. Reagan offset some of his tax cuts with TEFRA. Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 - Wikipedia It's not clear to me that Bush could have done the same--precisely because he had his "voodoo economics" comment to live down.
Last edited:
I think it's possible that Bush could have prevented conservative opposition by appointing a Reaganite Vice President, possibly Kemp or Phil Crane
One point not yet addressed - the perception of Reagan's death. There may be some mainstream, well-adjusted conservative voices who are publicly unconvinced that the perpetrator were just one crazy guy looking for a girlfriend. Many would suspect Soviet involvement.
Bush was hardly an ideologue, and there's no reason to think he wouldn't pursue the same things Reagan would (if anything, he'd be more conservative, given the pressure of Reagan's legacy - just look at how LBJ practically went above-and-beyond on JFK's antemortem plans). He certainly didn't care about refashioning his image when necessary-- just take a look at the 1988 primaries. Bush would very likely pursue supply-side economics -- yes, the same stuff he once called "Voodoo Economics" -- and lead a lot like Reagan IOTL lead.
So after looking at the responses, I think Bush ends up being similar to Reagan but evangelicals keep some distance as does Bush. However they won’t go Democrat.
By 1988 Jack Kemp runs and beats Dukakis and it’s mostly the same and we also see the gop under kemp become more inclusive of minorities, at least in theory. Kemp beats Clinton in 92 though after 16 years of GOP rule, Al Gore beats VP Bob Dole in 1996 and beats Jeb Bush in 2000. It’s 2004 where we see evangelicals get more represented as dark horse Rick Santorum gets 2nd to John McCain and by 2008 we see Mike Huckabee become the nominee, beating out Mitt Romney and upsets John Kerrey. By 2012 however, it seems as if Huckabee can’t win. Some say he’s too out of touch with the economy and only helping billionaires while those on the left call him a bigot and he loses to Obama. Obama does well but has a scare from Donald Trump who is similar to otl except not as courting of Christians though they support him. However he loses and still takes over the GOP after a fierce 2020 primary.
By 1988 Jack Kemp runs and beats Dukakis and it’s mostly the same and we also see the gop under kemp become more inclusive of minorities, at least in theory. Kemp beats Clinton in 92 though after 16 years of GOP rule, Al Gore beats VP Bob Dole in 1996 and beats Jeb Bush in 2000. It’s 2004 where we see evangelicals get more represented as dark horse Rick Santorum gets 2nd to John McCain and by 2008 we see Mike Huckabee become the nominee, beating out Mitt Romney and upsets John Kerrey. By 2012 however, it seems as if Huckabee can’t win. Some say he’s too out of touch with the economy and only helping billionaires while those on the left call him a bigot and he loses to Obama. Obama does well but has a scare from Donald Trump who is similar to otl except not as courting of Christians though they support him. However he loses and still takes over the GOP after a fierce 2020 primary.
Imo more likely is Laxalt -- aside from being close to the Reagan family, he's also fiscally conservative and relatively acceptable to evangelicals. Another choice is Al Quie; he's closer to evangelicals and very anti-abortion, although he has a moderate record otherwise. The problem with Kemp is that he has a base of his own, while Crane is considered a bit of a loose cannon.
Given how Reagan would come to reverse his heavy tax cuts in his first term along with keeping the guy Carter had who basically wrestled with inflation and interest rates, perhaps Reagan's assassination would open up the gashes made by the tax cuts and cause a longer period of financial instability that Bush Sr would have to try and fix. This may mean that he could lose in 1984 to a more prominent lefty Democrat. Ted Kennedy could try again though Gary Hart I could see as well.