With an unpopular Prime Minister and the economy contracting, Labour activists were demoralised
“Months after winning Buckingham for a second time, a major new poll has found support for Labour is collapsing across the country. The latest study from YouGov of over 11,500 voters has given the Conservatives a lead in every English region apart from London, the North East and North West. The figures will come as a boost for the Conservatives, whose party now leads the polls in former Labour heartlands. The Conservative lead in the regions is driven by plummeting support for Emily Thornberry’s party, who have dropped 11 points since 2017 to 25%. Despite not having a Lead Candidate, the Conservatives are polling at 39%, a 14 point lead. The collapse in Labour's fortunes is surprising considering their victory a few short months ago. The figures also show a boost in support for the Lib Dems, whose merger with United for Change has driven up their poll numbers across the country. The party has secured an eight-point boost to 18%. Nigel Farage's Brexit Alliance meanwhile sits on 8%, a five-point decrease from its vote share in the 2019 Presidential Election.” - Major new poll finds support for Labour collapsing, John Johnstone, PoliticsHome (2019)
With the Government seeming to be constantly on the verge of collapse and Labour collapsing in the polls, the Conservatives decided they would get their house in order, recruitment for a replacement to the embattled Amber rudd began. The party’s national committee announced their leadership election would take place at the end of September. Nine candidates initially emerged; Anglian Premier Steve Barclay, South West First Minister Robert Buckland, Anglians MP Therese Coffey and Liz Truss, Former Education Secretary Michael Gove, Former International Development Secretary Jeremy Hunt, East Midlands MP Robert Jenrick, Deputy Parliamentary Leader Rishi Sunak and Barnet Mayor Theresa Villiers.
Gove's Presidental campaign had been a disaster, he wanted to repair his reputation
Many expected whoever led the Conservatives would take Downing Street, considering Labour’s dire polling. Every Tory MP with an ounce of ambition wanted to become the party’s lead candidate, leading to a huge field of nine candidates. This field would quickly narrow however, both Jenrick and Villiers, fairly unknown players, dropped out due to a lack of funds and support amongst the Conservative caucus. Coffey too was also forced to drop out after she was criticised for defending a Member of the Welsh Parliament who said people on the Channel 4 TV show “Benefits Street” should be “put down”. For those candidates who stayed in the race, they quickly found themselves overshadowed by the big beasts of the campaign.
Anglian Premier Steve Barclay was one of the drowned out candidates
“Sunak’s professional background is also uncommon for British politics. He had a distinguished career in investment banking before entering politics, despite his young age. Banking experience might seem “appropriate” for a Tory but it’s not a common background for British politicians. The position of Parliamentary Leader or Prime Minister is indeed often a stepping stone to the Presidency. But Sunak lacks an independent political base. Unless he is a political genius, it seems unlikely that he could become the next President. Yet, there is a different possible interpretation of these facts. Here is a politician who rose to the limelight very quickly. Colleagues admire his analytical ability. He was loyal to Amber Rudd – one might wonder why a Eurosceptic hawk-like him aligned with her. Importantly, too, he already seems to appeal across party lines. Sunak could be the man who will change British politics.” - Can the Tories’ bright young banker change British politics?, Lecture by Despina Alexiadou, University of Strathclyde (2019)
The two main candidates were Deputy Leader Rishi Sunak and Former Secretary Jeremy Hunt, with Former Secretary Michael Gove in a strong third. Despite serving as Rudd’s deputy, Sunak was seen as the change candidate, having been appointed as Deputy to balance the party as a eurosceptic from the right. If he won Sunak would be the first BAME Leader of a major party, aged 37, Sunak would be one of the party’s youngest leaders in history. Sunak called for a clear break from the tactics of Osborne and Rudd, saying that by tacking to the centre, the party lost support to UKIP and the Brexit Party, and reaped no benefits as the Liberal Democrats would always prefer Labour. Telegenic and popular, Sunak was a strong favourite.
Sunak called for a clean break with the Rudd era
For the Osbornite moderate faction, there was Jeremy Hunt, hot off a failed Presidential bid, Hunt made the opposite argument to Sunak, highlighting May’s poor performance amongst vote transfers and the party’s decline in traditionally Conservative areas, such as the more middle-class cities in the South East and London like Reading and Wandsworth. Hunt argued that with the Government on the verge of collapse, the Tories needed to work with the Liberal Democrats and the rump of United for Change to create a broad-church centre-right Government.
“Imagine for a moment that you’ve got a new job as the new Tory Leader's director of strategy, or chief of staff, or whatever title you like. Your brief is to plot a course to the victory of the Tory party at the next election. You’d immediately take a look at your political inheritance and conclude that you had a lot of problems, but two major assets. Firstly your party is still more trusted to manage the economy. Secondly, "generic Conservative" is, more often than not, preferred as Prime Minister to Emily Thornberry. Assuming that advantage continues for the next Leader, you keep a useful political advantage – and a not insignificant hope. When the polls have been wrong about voting intention, the beneficiary of the error has been the party that leads on leadership. The important thing about the question of “Who is the best Prime Minister?” is it is a comparative, not an absolute one. The judgement that voters will make about Sunak or Hunt is partly about how they feel about one candidate or another in a vacuum, but also about how they feel about the choice they are making.” - Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt’s political inheritances, Stephen Bush, New Statesman (2019)
Hunt argued he was the best qualifed candidate to become PM on day one
Gove ran as a compromise unity candidate, pointing to his experience in Government. However his detractors pointed towards his unpopularity amongst the country, and his disastrous Presidential campaign, during which he dropped out before the vote even took place. Whilst Gove had loyal followers across the Tory Party, most Conservative MPs were desperate to win and wanted to either play it safe with Hunt or take a risk with Sunak. Compared to those two, Gove might have been a compromise, but he was a bad compromise. As he travelled around Westminster trying to drum up support, he found most Conservative MPs giving him the cold shoulder.
South West First Minister Robert Buckland ran on his experience as a First Minister
The minor candidates struggled to make any headway. Robert Buckland was the only candidate who got any sort of media attention, pointing towards his multiple electoral success as South West First Minister, Barclay, on the other hand, languished in obscurity. Liz Truss had been expected to do well as the only woman in the race, but much of her support had been eaten up by Rishi Sunak and she was ostracised after posting a photo of women Conservatives alongside pro-Putin Russian Oligarch Lubov Chernukhin with the caption “#ladiesnight”. The major gaffe raised eyebrows in the intentional community and gave Labour an easy avenue of attack, essentially dooming Truss’ campaign.
As the campaign took place over a matter of weeks, not months there was little space or time for outsider candidates to breakthrough. Sunak and Hunt were locked in a pitched battle as the minor players fell to the wayside. Polls showed Hunt as narrowly ahead amongst Tory MPs, but through one good speech after another Sunak began to pull level with Hunt. Sunak’s big moment came when former President Michael Howard offered up his endorsement. Howard still held a place of esteem amongst many Tories as the only majorly successful post-Commonwealth Conservative politician, with Howard’s endorsement Sunak serged, the race was on a knife’s edge.
After a brutal race, the Conservatives met at their conference in Bradford to unveil their candidate for Prime Minister. The ballot of MPs had been closely guarded and most journalists predicted a toss-up. Eventually, the waiting was done, National Committee Chair Paul Scully announced Sunak had won with 52% of MPs to Hunt’s 48%. Sunak was the youngest major party leader in recent history, and he was the most right-wing Conservative Parliamentary Leader since David Davis led the caucus in 2005. With its new young charismatic leader at the helm, the Conservative Party was about to radically change, but not everyone in the party was happy.
“We can unite our country, we can unleash the potential of this whole country and take it forward. I said before. I had a campaign slogan which was to deliver a referendum, unite the country and defeat Emily Thornberry. I didn't say which order I was going to do it in. We will defeat Emily Thornberry, we are going to deliver a referendum and we are going to unite our country and take it forward. And we are going to energise our country. So thank you all very much. You deserve a massive, massive congratulations. I am not going to single out anybody in particular. But thank you CCHQ, everyone who volunteered, everybody who has worked together, all our troops around the whole country. You have done an amazing job and you should be proud of what you have achieved. So I hope you will allow yourself some brief celebration because the work is going to begin very shortly." - Rishi Sunak’s victory speech (2019)
“To what extent did Rishi Sunak’s leadership represent a clean break from the Amber Rudd era? (30 Marks)” - A-Level Politics Exam