What Would Have Happened if Mary I of England Named Mary, Queen of Scots, as her successor when she died?

I am fascinated by the idea that Mary, Queen of Scots, might have been Queen of England as well. What would have happened to Elizabeth, and her marriage with the (I believe at the time?) Dauphin of France, Francis? Do you think she would have suffered as much as she did alone in Scotland?
 
I am fascinated by the idea that Mary, Queen of Scots, might have been Queen of England as well. What would have happened to Elizabeth, and her marriage with the (I believe at the time?) Dauphin of France, Francis? Do you think she would have suffered as much as she did alone in Scotland?
Mary was 16 when Queen Mary I died and in France. Unless she is raised in Scotland and not married to Francis II I doubt the English will accept her.

So the two scenarios are:

Mary of Scotland is raised in Scotland and unmarried when Bloody Mary dies, so she is accepted by the English with little struggle.

Mary is raised in France and comes to power with major struggle.

To make life easier I’d have Queen Elizabeth die of an illness in 1557
 
I imagine this would be a very messy timeline. There was fairly widespread opposition to a Scottish monarch reigning over England upon the ascension of James VI and I. Adding Mary's gender and her Catholicism on top of her Scottish ancestry -- to say nothing of her being raised in France -- and it is very easy to imagine armed opposition to this planned succession, with several possible claimants and factions. Elizabeth would have substantial support, and it's possibly Hastings could revive the Yorkist claim via George of Clarence. Hell, even that Neville could revive a rival Lancastrian claim. Depending on how seriously Elizabeth and Mary pressed their claims here, England is in for a civil war that combines succession crisis and war of religion with xenophobia and misogyny. War of the Roses 2.0, but much uglier.
 
I am fascinated by the idea that Mary, Queen of Scots, might have been Queen of England as well. What would have happened to Elizabeth, and her marriage with the (I believe at the time?) Dauphin of France, Francis? Do you think she would have suffered as much as she did alone in Scotland?
No way in the hell who Philip allow that to happen, unless Mary is already widowed and back in Scotland. The only true reason for which Elizabeth Tudor was able to become Queen was the fact who Philip II protected her and supported her claim for preventing the succession of Mary Stuart and her French husband. Kill off Francis II and Henry II and send Mary back in Scotland and once she agreed to marry someone suggested by Philip, Elizabeth’s chances to get the English crown are zero
 
Last edited:
I imagine this would be a very messy timeline. There was fairly widespread opposition to a Scottish monarch reigning over England upon the ascension of James VI and I. Adding Mary's gender and her Catholicism on top of her Scottish ancestry -- to say nothing of her being raised in France -- and it is very easy to imagine armed opposition to this planned succession, with several possible claimants and factions. Elizabeth would have substantial support, and it's possibly Hastings could revive the Yorkist claim via George of Clarence. Hell, even that Neville could revive a rival Lancastrian claim. Depending on how seriously Elizabeth and Mary pressed their claims here, England is in for a civil war that combines succession crisis and war of religion with xenophobia and misogyny. War of the Roses 2.0, but much uglier.
Wasn't England still majority Catholic in 1558? I vaguely recall that fact coming up in previous discussions surrounding this topic.
 
I imagine this would be a very messy timeline. There was fairly widespread opposition to a Scottish monarch reigning over England upon the ascension of James VI and I. Adding Mary's gender and her Catholicism on top of her Scottish ancestry -- to say nothing of her being raised in France -- and it is very easy to imagine armed opposition to this planned succession, with several possible claimants and factions. Elizabeth would have substantial support, and it's possibly Hastings could revive the Yorkist claim via George of Clarence. Hell, even that Neville could revive a rival Lancastrian claim. Depending on how seriously Elizabeth and Mary pressed their claims here, England is in for a civil war that combines succession crisis and war of religion with xenophobia and misogyny. War of the Roses 2.0, but much uglier.
Mary being female and Catholic, considering who she will be successor of Mary I is unlikely to be a great cons against her. She has the strongest legitimate claim (as Elizabeth is illegitimate) and her greatest rival would be Elizabeth Tudor (Margaret Douglas‘ claim can not stand against Mary’s and the Grey are well relatives of an usurper)
 
Wasn't England still majority Catholic in 1558? I vaguely recall that fact coming up in previous discussions surrounding this topic.
I believe that was true of the general population, but less so of the aristocracy. And since it is they who have the power and resources to oppose a monarch ...


Mary being female and Catholic, considering who she will be successor of Mary I is unlikely to be a great cons against her.
We already saw in OTL the conspiracy to put Jane Grey on the throne. Surely there would be a number of magnates plotting against this succession as well, and would have learned from their mistakes last time. We also need to consider also how unpopular Mary had become within the political establishment by the end of her. I think Mary attempting to put another Catholic woman on the throne after her would indeed be a major obstacle.
 
No way in the hell who Philip allow that to happen, unless Mary is already widowed and back in Scotland. The only true reason for which Elizabeth Tudor was able to become Queen was the fact who Philip II protected her and supported her claim for preventing the succession of Mary Stuart and her French husband. Kill off Francis II and Henry II and send Mary back in Scotland and once she agreed to marry someone suggested by Philip, Elizabeth’s chances to get the English crown are zero
If it happens close enough to Mary’s death Philip would probably marry Mary of Scotland himself
 
Thank you for all your replies - so interesting!! I read a book on Mary QoS the other day and my sympathies went to her very much so, so sad that she lost her head in the end lol.

Do you reckon then if Elizabeth Tudor was dead and Francis and Mary QoS had produced an heir (male because of france’s tiring salic law) there would be no way in hell of her become Queen of England? Do you think she would have still been forced to relinquish her throne?
 
Thank you for all your replies - so interesting!! I read a book on Mary QoS the other day and my sympathies went to her very much so, so sad that she lost her head in the end lol.

Do you reckon then if Elizabeth Tudor was dead and Francis and Mary QoS had produced an heir (male because of france’s tiring salic law) there would be no way in hell of her become Queen of England? Do you think she would have still been forced to relinquish her throne?
Mary I would have named someone else as her heir and Spain would have supported that claim but Mary Stuart would have claimed the crown of England and is not unlikely who she would get it in the end
 
Philip would (If Mary I did declares Mary of Scotland her heir), have full intentions to marry Mary of Scotland
For that, you have to change the timeline.
In OTL, when Mary of England died, Mary of Scotland was already married to the future Francis II and, when said Francis II died, it was Philip who was already married to Francis' sister Elizabeth.
I guess Philip could propose his son Don Carlos as a potential husband for Mary. The problem is that Don Carlos was... You know... Don Carlos.

Mary I would have named someone else as her heir and Spain would have supported that claim but Mary Stuart would have claimed the crown of England and is not unlikely who she would get it in the end
If we assume Mary is still married to a surviving Francis and/or has a son by him, I don't think it would be possible for her to win the English throne despite Philip's opposition.
Is there a way for Francis and Mary to find an agreement with Philip? After all, the Italian Wars were over and Philip was Francis' brother-in-law.
Obviously, they should give him Burgundy but that would not be enough. Maybe they could support his claim to the Portuguese throne after Cardinal-King Henry's death.
 
For that, you have to change the timeline.
In OTL, when Mary of England died, Mary of Scotland was already married to the future Francis II and, when said Francis II died, it was Philip who was already married to Francis' sister Elizabeth.
I guess Philip could propose his son Don Carlos as a potential husband for Mary. The problem is that Don Carlos was... You know... Don Carlos.
Yeah but with knowledge that this younger Mary is going to become Queen he’s probably just wait, keep in mind the only way Mary is going to become Queen of England is if she doesn’t marry Francis II. So let’s have the POD be that Francis II dies in 1556 and Mary returns to Scotland In 1557. That way we have an unmarried Mary who can marry Philip. Plus Don Carlos could marry Elisabeth of Valois. Also if Mary is Queen of England and Scotland I don’t think Don Carlos could do much to hurt her, at least not without consequences.
 
Yeah but with knowledge that this younger Mary is going to become Queen he’s probably just wait, keep in mind the only way Mary is going to become Queen of England is if she doesn’t marry Francis II. So let’s have the POD be that Francis II dies in 1556 and Mary returns to Scotland In 1557. That way we have an unmarried Mary who can marry Philip. Plus Don Carlos could marry Elisabeth of Valois.
In this POD of an earlier death for Francis, it becomes possible.
However, Mary would still be in France at the time of Francis' death.
I don't think Henry II and Catherine de Medici would simply let the queen regnant of Scotland and England go away to marry the king of Spain. I guess they would want her to marry the future Charles IX.
Also if Mary is Queen of England and Scotland I don’t think Don Carlos could do much to hurt her, at least not without consequences.
Without consequences, obviously not. With consequences, yes.
 
In this POD of an earlier death for Francis, it becomes possible.
However, Mary would still be in France at the time of Francis' death.
I don't think Henry II and Catherine de Medici would simply let the queen regnant of Scotland and England go away to marry the king of Spain. I guess they would want her to marry the future Charles IX.

Without consequences, obviously not. With consequences, yes.
Henry II yes, Catherine no. A better POD is Mary Tudor living longer so don Carlos married Elisabeth (as originally planned), Henry II still die during the tournament for Elisabeth’s wedding (the different name of the groom can not change things here), Francis II die shortly after becoming King, Marie Stuart return at home, promise to marry someone chosen by Philip and Mary Tudor in exchange of being named as heiress of England, then Mary Tudor die and Philip remarry some months later to Mary, now Queen of England and Scotland.
 
Henry II yes, Catherine no.
I don't know.
Sure, Catherine did not want a marriage between Mary and Charles in OTL but, if Mary is offered the throne of England, the situation is quite different and Catherine might see things differently. After all, in OTL, she wanted to have England as a ally, even proposing Elizabeth Tudor to marry one of her sons. She would probably be unpleased by the idea of Mary becoming queen of England as Philip's puppet.

Henry II still die during the tournament for Elisabeth’s wedding (the different name of the groom can not change things here)
Why?
Henry II's death is likely to be butterlied away by basically any POD taking place before it.
This death implies both Henry II and Montgomery launching their horses at the exact same speed, Montgomery rising his spear at the exact same height, Henry II having his head at the exact same place at the exact same time...
It is quite unlikely.
And even assuming it still occurs, Catherine might want to keep Mary in this ATL.

don Carlos married Elisabeth (as originally planned)
If Elisabeth marries Don Carlos as initially expected, that can have quite important consequences.
Don Carlos was heir apparent to the throne of Spain and heir presumptive to the throne of Portugal (coming even before Cardinal Henry).
Does he still die in the same obscure circumstances as in OTL?
Does he have children with Elisabeth? If so, are they successors to Sebastian I and later Philip II?
 
Does he have children with Elisabeth? If so, are they successors to Sebastian I and later Philip II?
Here’s an idea, Don Carlos has a posthumous daughter born around the same time as a son of Philip II and Mary of Scotland and the two are married to one another to prevent any split.
 
I don't know.
Sure, Catherine did not want a marriage between Mary and Charles in OTL but, if Mary is offered the throne of England, the situation is quite different and Catherine might see things differently. After all, in OTL, she wanted to have England as a ally, even proposing Elizabeth Tudor to marry one of her sons. She would probably be unpleased by the idea of Mary becoming queen of England as Philip's puppet.


Why?
Henry II's death is likely to be butterlied away by basically any POD taking place before it.
This death implies both Henry II and Montgomery launching their horses at the exact same speed, Montgomery rising his spear at the exact same height, Henry II having his head at the exact same place at the exact same time...
It is quite unlikely.
And even assuming it still occurs, Catherine might want to keep Mary in this ATL.


If Elisabeth marries Don Carlos as initially expected, that can have quite important consequences.
Don Carlos was heir apparent to the throne of Spain and heir presumptive to the throne of Portugal (coming even before Cardinal Henry).
Does he still die in the same obscure circumstances as in OTL?
Does he have children with Elisabeth? If so, are they successors to Sebastian I and later Philip II?
Marie Stuart has ZERO chances to get named as heiress by Mary Tudor while she is tied to France.
 
Top