It’s not as easy as everyone is making it out to be.
Bush would be struggling a fair bit as he won his Electoral College and lost the popular vote, especially via a court case regarding vote counting being why he won. A delayed 9/11 means earlier scandals, like Enron and so on, come to be the prominent discussion in the forefront and be a defining factor for the time and his presidency.
Come 2004, it’s not looking too good. His tax cuts wouldn’t help the economy and likely be making it worse, the Enron scandal might taint him and it would overall look not too good for him.
Not sure who the Dems would run against him, but it’d have to be on the economy and so on. Gore I’m skeptical, but maybe. Clinton I don’t see and the others I don’t think so.
Polls said economy and healthcare were the big thing in OTL, so going with that, Howard Dean would make a good dark horse candidate and his support for healthcare would give him an edge. Granted, in OTL, he didn’t fare as good compared to the others, but that doesn’t mean it’d happen like OTL. Kerry may not run, all depends.
Then comes 9/11/2004
There is one big difference and that’s Bush in office. Unlike OTL, where he just became president, here, he’s been one for most of it.
That means that with the negative reputation he got, there’s a possibility he could be partially blamed via negligence.
Like, how the hell did they not see it coming? That’d be the question on everyone’s minds at some point when the shock wears off.
It’d all depend if they could trust him to go after Al-Queda and reassure the nation. Honestly, would also depend on Howard Dean and he chose for VP.
I could see Bush getting a large temporary boost, but when the patriotism panic wears off and people begin thinking, it’s gonna begins the backlash. Combined with the Iraq War happening years later and then in top of the Great Recession, it’s gonna be a clusterfuck for the GOP.
I don’t know how well it’d go for Howard Dean, though it would depend on who he would have for VP and his own response. Perhaps Kerry could be his VP and could remained focused on what needs to be done. I don’t think he’d drop out of the race though. They’d have to be tactful too.