Rebirth of an Empire "O Renascimento de um Império" v2.0

The Death Penalty remained legal throughout the early Josephine Period, however. It would only be officially outlawed by Joseph II in 1787, during the Mid Josephine Era.

So decades earlier than OTL. Will this led to additional changes to the penal system, such as no judicial torture, pillory and others?

The four foreign fads of ideas and influences had a lasting impact in post-Pombaline Portugal to the point that much of the architectural development occurring in areas throughout the mainland in these decades was themed around the strongest foreign influence in the respective area, or simply by the liberation of minority rights passed by Joseph II at the start of the 1780s. The inner territories saw a lot of transformation towards the synagogue and Sephardic architectures in particular, since many hidden Jews had lived there in secrecy away from the scrutiny of city persecutors.
It would be interesting to see Portugal, from importer of ideas, become an exporter, whether in terms of religion, politics and culture. If Portugal became way more powerful TTL, compared to OTL, then its ideas might export more easily, especially if they produce positive results (more freedom, knowledge and wealth).
With the collapse of slavery in non-Brazilian Portugal, the debate over the citizens status only became hotter. Striking differences between Portuguese and Brazilian mentality began to surface, putting cohesion in the population in danger. Without a united outlook on what it meant to be a citizen in the country, King Joseph II believed that the colony he grew up in was destined to sever its ties with the motherland in the near future, following the American example.
Let's hope Brazil will not revolt for protecting slavery "kingdom's rights." Speaking of which, how much overseas intellectuals are involved in the intellectual life of the Empire? IT might be a way to unify these territories, like when French notables OTL spoke French instead of their local languages.
In 1780, the free masonry in Brazil and the one in Portugal were intrinsically tied, motivated by both their commerce and their mutual distaste for Pombal’s government. The collapse of the Inquisition had allowed these men to act even more freely and the signing of the Tagus Declaration gave them unprecedented mainstream liberty and power. The Grand Orient of Lusitania was officially formed somewhere along the 1769s.[10]
Will they be more continental (i.e. anti-clerical) or Anglo-Saxon (more accepting from religion, which might be easier thanks to the Verneist church)? Depending from the Masonry's size, it might influe on the Portuguese intelligentsia.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Let me be the first to say that this chapter is pure written gold and perfektion, very nicely done! :D

Thanks. It could be better, though.

Maybe it could, but I wish mine were as good as yours are allready.
This section along with entire 1783 section is one of the best sections. Both the knowledge, insight and ability to provide readers with detailed and in-depth analysis of the state of country at a particular time.

For we are able to link the outcomes and reactions to many different stories and look at the overall picture of the country, its people and society.

While as authors we may never be truly satisfied, Thrudgelmir2333 please accept this praise from all the readers of the TL. Thanks.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I'm an Advocate for the death penalty in extreme cases having personally seen far too many creatures not deserving the term human but hey, the ignorant and naïve are gonna be ignorant and naïve.

There are some that would assign ignorance and naivety to the notion of pinning the permanent fate of a human life to an assumption that a state and its criminal prosecution is and can be impartial and flawless.
Hi there the Portuguese move to be against capital punishment came about as a result of the changes in society to look upon all people living in the country as fellow human being. Now we talking 18th century concept not modern concepts. This led to great discussions advanced by Portuguese philosophers about the sanctity of life. The country had just condemned the inquisition and auto-fe and from that things expanded. So while there are some very despicable people in the world that as indicated "deserver" to be killed the country soon came to understand that it was not their place to do it. Now some Portuguese prisons are more akin to hell and some of those sent there might of wished they been put to death. (That is for future generations to reform)

What we can take from it, is that it made the Portuguese stand out and changed the perception of its people by other (not always in positive way) but nonetheless it was one of many things that made the Portuguese stand out and while many people were afraid of the Portuguese reforms and thought them "mad" and not to be trusted the Portuguese actions and attitudes would set the country boldly apart from other countries especially in the late 18th and early 19th century as some countries would go out of their way to execute entire class of people. The disgust at the taking of the human life would make many look at the Portuguese with admiration after so many had condemned them previously for all of the Portuguese reforms they seemed so tame and enlightened when compared at the depravity inflicted on so many.
Great Update dealing with more intellectual affairs, it's great to see the Portuguese create their own philosophical thought and way of doing things.
Yes the Portuguese philological and religious would become an example for both to be emulated and hated. It all depended on the person station in life. Many of disadvantaged would try to copy and follow Portuguese while others who had a stake in maintaining their existing standard of living would view the Portuguese with their dangerous ideas as people that were needed to be resisted.
So decades earlier than OTL. Will this led to additional changes to the penal system, such as no judicial torture, pillory and others?

It would be interesting to see Portugal, from importer of ideas, become an exporter, whether in terms of religion, politics and culture. If Portugal became way more powerful TTL, compared to OTL, then its ideas might export more easily, especially if they produce positive results (more freedom, knowledge and wealth).

Let's hope Brazil will not revolt for protecting slavery "kingdom's rights." Speaking of which, how much overseas intellectuals are involved in the intellectual life of the Empire? IT might be a way to unify these territories, like when French notables OTL spoke French instead of their local languages.

Will they be more continental (i.e. anti-clerical) or Anglo-Saxon (more accepting from religion, which might be easier thanks to the Verneist church)? Depending from the Masonry's size, it might influence on the Portuguese intelligentsia.
Yes you are right that Portuguese penal, judicial and other legal system will change and be at the forefront of change and advancement decades earlier. Some historians have stated that had the anarchy and chaos of the early 19th century not consumed the nation it might of been implemented earlier.

As iOTL France was regarded as one of the most cultured and advanced countries in the world even while it was displaced on the world stage by others, it will be interesting to see if Portuguese influence regarding religion, politics and culture along with a continued strong empire translates to changed world that is decades ahead in terms of freedoms, liberty and human rights. It is a reasonable expectation, for the Portuguese have already moved decades ahead of any other great power in outlawing slavery (outside of Brazil). Even in Brazil the anti-slavery movement is growing (on its own accord) without push or direction from Lisbon as the people once exposed to an idea have firmly taken ownership of it and pushing it.

While some people looked at the ideals that young nation of USA stood for the Portuguese surpassed in real and actual implementation of those ideals.4

As for language and sharing of ideas we will have many post on this topic. We can look at how the French were able to supplant many different dialects and languages within its borders with Parisian French, EDUCATION. If the Portuguese can spread the education opportunity throughout the empire both primary, secondary and post secondary then Portuguese language become the language of trade, power, administration, intellectual conversation and more importantly everyday conversation. All of this of course cannot happen if people are excluded from these institutions because of the color, background or ethnicity.

As for situation of slavery in Brazil and the rights of non-Europeans throughout the empire, the seed has been sown and as time goes both the anti-slavery and the rights of non Europeans will slowly advance. It may take few decades but still be decades and century ahead of iOTL. I think the pressure will come from several fronts and not from those in power (although there might be some guidance)

The Free Masonry and later other similar organizations would include some aspects of religion as religion has not completely disappeared and still will guide many of the country's moral and physiological ideas. I think it be more of a hybrid between the two.
 
King and Country (1783) (4 of 4)

Lusitania

Donor
King and Country (1783) (4 of 4)

Politics & Imperialism


The end of the Three Years War brought an undeniable victory to the Portuguese Empire and this had obviously very important effects in the colonies. The 1st Luso-Mysore War of 1777 and the 4th Luso-Kongo War of 1778, not to mention the campaigns against piracy between 1775 and 1780, also brought many military victories that accounted positively to Portuguese imperialism. The early Josephine Era, therefore, despite conquering less territory by square miles than the late Pombaline Era, was a net positive to jingoists and imperialists.

The Movements of the 1780s


As already detailed,[1] due to his increasingly smaller involvement in politics, Pombal’s power, influence and charisma had been decreasing amongst the public, leading to the decline of supporters of Pombalism, the collective ideas about forceful reformation that characterized the country between 1755 and 1777. The idea in itself never held majority of favor, being supported mostly by younger elites, the king, the enlightenment absolutists or the ‘estrangeirados’ who sought to supplant the older order of affairs.

Concerns and movements in the early years of the decade of 1780 were influenced by:

  • The ongoing American Revolution;
  • The ongoing Three Years War;
  • The effects of Joseph II’s early stewarding of the state;
  • The straining of relations with the Spanish Empire;
  • The return to prominence of the navy and the army;
  • The reforms made in decentralized administration in many areas;
  • The cooling off of the Mini-Boom;[2]
  • The advances in philosophy, politics and fads;[3]
As a result, most of them were characterized by a desire to decentralize the nation even further and bring about representationalism, increasingly seen as the best way to stave off future unrest or tyranny and grow closer to European societies perceived to be more advanced. A lesser half of these movements even supported minority rights. The bourgeoisie were heavily in favor of making King Joseph’s emancipation of Jews permanent and the rights he extended to Mirandese speakers unalienable.

Going from right to left, the political beliefs beginning in the 1780s were listed as followed:

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The departure from the 1780s onward would be of a population commonly concerned with formalization of law and codes. This was a direct result of the volatile nature of previous decades and the concerns of the ‘Confused Generation’ combined with those of the previous ‘Earthquake Generation’. It was fairly likely that even without the influence of French liberalism, the country would soon be in upheaval or simply backwards in political terms once again unless the government decided to formalize the separation of powers and evolve the state machinery to its next level.

The political needle of the population also seemed more firmly set on center, moderate policies as opposed to the either violently traditionalist or violently progressive times of the early 1770s when Verney began his campaign against Rome and the Portuguese aristocrats of the Enlightenment conspired against their more powerful and entrenched cousins. Partly in thanks to the anxiety of the Three Years War, there was a lack of desire in involving the territory into further upheaval, so progressivism cooled down to a more slothful, code-oriented form.

The mini-boom also had impact by increasing population density and the percentage of immigrant communities in cities, where politics were decided. Part of what fueled new representationalism and constitutionalism was the common understanding that Irish communities had been for the most part harmless and had visibly participated in defending the seas during the Luso-Franco Maritime War. The solidification of minority communities in certain locations, like the Mirandese line in the Bragança eastern border or the Jewish outcroppings in Beira Interior, had created open ethnic strongholds that could not be ignored in their respective regions.

This kind of settling was an optimal condition for a constitution to be peacefully drafted, fueling further desire for it. It also increased desire for a formal and modern law codex in equal proportion. Even the most conservative elements seemed to agree that, for their own protection, a common and comprehensive law and constitution was required.

The conversation about state powers, a critical aspect of any constitution or law drafting, was, however, still a controversy. Depending on whom you asked certain elements of certain sectors believed the cabinet and the king should have more or less powers during this age. Many still believed in the virtues of Absolutism tempered by the Enlightenment, believing it to be a great way of enforcing reformation. The generations that lived through it, however, tended to want a more liberal approach in government initiatives and lawmaking. Tax policy was another big controversy, with most people considering it to be an evil to pass on to others, so there was still lacking an educated, non-politicized understanding of how and to whom it should be applied. This was a contrast to more dedicated revolutionary societies, like the American one, who fully understood taxes to be a bane to be curtailed.

Naval jingoism, on the other hand, was a result of military and colonial victories of the latest two to three decades combined with a general militarization of some aspects of society. Politicians seemed more eager to argue in favor of naval assaults as a problem-solving answer to a level unseen since the apex of the first empire. Land jingoism was still tempered, but growing a few advocates that believed it was necessary, for example, to press national claims on Brazil and Nova Zelândia.

But lacking a platform to give power to their conversations, like a parliament, these many movements lacked organization and identity in the formal sense. To this day the most commonly recognized mentality was the Pombalist one, which not only was in decline and with its needle moving further and further to the right as a conservative movement, but derived its identity around a central, dying figure, the Prime Minister Sebastião de Carvalho e Melo. It was unlikely that with Pombal dead there would be a grand ideology to dominate the affairs of the public.

The political future of Portugal in 1783, therefore, was an incognita to most people. It could either revert to its old ways of traditionalism, now that the main proponent of progressivism had passed away, it could attempt to continue his efforts, or it could go an entirely new direction, perhaps in line with the ongoing American Revolution or the soon-to-explode French Revolution. Unbeknownst to the debaters, the following era would actually be dominated by the influence of the meek king himself, Joseph II, who after instituting the Ministry of Justice and formalizing the beginning of the process to constitutionalize the country would go on to act as a much more effective monarch and impact events from the aftermath of the Three Years War to the Treaty of Vienna.

The Iron Jewel of India


In 1783, Portuguese India was a multi-branched trade-steering parasite on the western Indian Coast, or, as the Portuguese preferred to refer to it, a “collective of trade outposts enclaves politically centralized in Goa and strengthened by fortified bastions in Greater Damão and Greater Diu”, these last two now legitimate provinces of their own. The main exportations to Lisbon and Rio, asides from obvious treasuries and spices, consisted of iron, gunpowder, rocketry, sugar and dyes locally produced and a collective of Indian manufactured goods pulled from the ‘native mainland’.

As a result of the Three-Years War, Goa now dominated the entire western India Coast, as far as European colonies went. While Bombay and Surat were in British hands, Diu and Daman were so physically bigger while able to maintain the same naval power projection that these two British colonies were growing increasingly less valuable. Surat in particular was growing less and less profitable, largely in part of Bombay being a superior headquarters for the British. The strenuous relationship between the Calcutta office and the Bombay office was also prejudicial.

Proof of this dominance was that it was now politically impossible to not involve the Portuguese in any matter related the status of the Western Coast. Every region of it had either a full province or an ‘Old Port’ with special trade privileges that could be consulted by the many rivalling Indian political groups. The heavily populated region of Travancore was also now littered by Portuguese outposts re-conquered from the Dutch, meaning the Navy acted with full liberty along the entire length of the sub-continent’s western outline. While the Dutch were now much stronger in their confinement in Ceylon, the less segmented demarcation of India to different European powers was contributing to a stranglehold despite the fact that the Portuguese were numerically outnumbered.

This is to say that the Portuguese weren’t strong, but thanks to the new demarcations they probably didn’t need to be, as it was now much harder for the Indians to pit the Europeans against one another. In fact, Tipu Sultan feared that the trend would be that the Dutch, British and Portuguese would now work together to initiate a massive, decade-long political assault on their preferred slices of India, a notion that made every Indian ruler shudder. The Dutch and the Portuguese were now even allied for the first time in history. Prospects for the future seemed grim, indeed, for native independence.

Meanwhile Goa itself grew richer. With almost full naval dominance over the Gulf of Cambay and an open road to Indonesia, its political and financial power grew along with its investors. Panjim would never grow as much wealth as it would in the final years of the 18th century and its burgher class increased in numbers, forming parties to oppose the interests of the Dutch Burghers in Malabar. The caste system and indentured servitude, however, not only continued but grew in equal proportion to the wealth. The enlarged territory of Greater Goa, Daman and Diu had grown from a population of approximately 160,000 in 1750 to 300,000 in 1780.[4] This was the result of very significant conquests around the three original main colonies as well as influxes of both European and Indian people. This also meant, however, large numbers of people maladjusted to an economy not meant to favor them.

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While Portuguese India developed immensely, racial inequality remained solid, strengthened by the culturally entrenched caste system

It was understood by European settlers that the Indians only tolerated their situation in Portuguese colonies due to common faith, in some cases to common language and to a general lack of better conditions in native kingdoms. The caste system native to Indian cultures enforced the hierarchy passively. The situation in Portuguese India pushed the white settlers to a superior ‘Casta’, as they comprised the richer, politically advantaged citizens, whether they were actual nobility, plutocrats or even simple peasants and fishermen from the army.

The religion-based versions of the jāti were outlawed by the Verneyist’s church doctrines. Goan Patriarch Manuel went to extensive lengths to fight this particular form of caste. The Portuguese policy of miscegenation also opposed jāti’s general rules against marriage between sectors. The natives, however, especially those advanced over others by the caste, believed the system provided identity, stability and status to their groups.

There wasn’t a unified stance against the caste system amongst the whites, moreover, because in many situations it favored them for there to be a culture amongst the natives where they accepted the racial hierarchy. The settlement outpost of Cascata, in southeastern Greater Goa, had been formed by disadvantaged Indians resettled into the area that had no power to oppose Portuguese law, but when the Vice-Roy had been fomenting anti-Mysore sentiments based on how Tipu Sultan threatened to exterminate Goans due to their religion, it became hard to believe that the Portuguese were true to their consistency. This was an even bigger problem in Daman and Diu, where control over vast majority of the lands was very recent and Muslim population percentage was much higher.

The influence of Dutch colonial practices suggested that a hands-off attitude was best to follow. Neo-colonialists, who based their beliefs on the examples of England and Netherlands, not to mention the ones set by explorer scientists Barbosa, Ferreira and, later on, Lacerda, wished colonial policy to be based on scientific interests and statehood, not brutal conquest. They argued that the three main colonies of Portuguese India were only stable and profitable thanks to toleration and a focus on magistracy.

Political power was still undeniably in its apex, and Portuguese India slowly became known less and less as the “Great Enclave” and more and more as the “Iron Jewel of India”. It was the second biggest European possession in India, the most commercially successful per square mile, the number one political power in the western coast and more competitive than pre-Earthquake Goa had ever been. It was also likely to single-handedly dominate the strategic Cambay Gulf by the end of the century. With the alliance with Dutch Ceylon and the British Calcutta Office, not to mention the state of Hyderabad, Panjim could pull enough strings to defeat any singular Indian state should it be invaded.

This left Vice-Roy Frederick Holstein in a position of almost absolute victory in his term. He had set out to make Goa the undisputed power in the coast and, in many respects, he succeeded, even if it was partially thanks to policies and feats from his subordinates that went against his own, particularly Governor Joseph de Almeida and the Brigadier General Gomes Freire de Andrade. Thus he surpassed the previous Vice-Roy in sheer advances even though Castro was remembered by natives more positively due to his limited expansion and pro-diplomacy policies, not to mention being the main contributor to ending the Goa Inquisition. Holstein was, in turn, going down as a jingoist conqueror viewed more positively by whites not maimed by the wars he caused.

Goa, however, faced intense geopolitical challenges in the near future. With Dutch and French competition driven away and the British East India Company growing bolder and fiercer, the colonization of the mainland was likely to be contested in the near future, not to mention that both the states of Mysore and the Maratha Confederacy had reasons to antagonize Panjim.

The Round-The-World Imperialism

The sun sets on the Portuguese Empire, but not for very long. When it rises, only a few people notice it ahead of time, but when it sets again the vast majority of us see it coming a mile away.
Silvestre Pinheiro Ferreira - Observações sobre o Narcimento de o primeiro Imperio Mudial[5]

The 4th Luso-Kongo War displaced an uprising Manikongo who sought to militarize the nation against European influence and replaced it with Pedro V, a candidate that was the closest thing possible to a Portuguese puppet. The reason for so was that not only the man himself was indebted to Luanda, but the changes caused to borders and commerce in the Treaty of São Salvador rendered the colony of Luanda as the main contact the Kongo region had with the international community, even if the province of Cabinda was an autonomous free trade outpost.

Less than a decade later, intense British invasions to Dutch possessions caused Kapstaad to become a Dutch colony under British protection. This brought the region of southern Africa to the competition table once more, since it meant that interest in conquering land there, European or native, was growing. As navies grew more sophisticated and European control over Asian territories increased, the importance of Kapstaad became more critical as a controlling lock on the shipping lanes between the Indic and Atlantic Oceans.

As it stood in 1783, France, Britain, Portugal and the Netherlands all possessed either islands or coastal port territories in the region and the investment in each area varied greatly depending on the zone. With the retying of Luso-Dutch relations, it seemed unlikely that the Portuguese would rekindle any desire to take Cape territories and instead focused on making Angolan and Mozambican ports viable by intensifying relationships, whether belligerent or commercial, with the Congolese or Rozwi empires. They were not particularly concerned with maintaining shipping lanes through the Cape since both powers contesting control over it were now allied to Portugal and for as long as the Second Colonial Accord held power (which could be as long as the British needed to complete colonization of their side of the bargain) it wasn’t allowed to give any two cents on it anyway.

With the scientific wing of the colonization department growing, however, some prestige was there to be gained by continuing exploration and annexation of South African lands north of the Cunene River. In any case, the colonization market seemed to be all of a sudden open for coastal possessions on southern Africa, instead of focusing on West Africa where all the rich Muslim African empires were located. A decision as a people had to be made then as to what were to become the national destiny in this region that had been tied to Portugal for more than 250 years.

The main concern seemed to be that Portugal was lacking in geopolitically critical ports, as opposed to Spain (Panama), Britain (Gibraltar/ The Channel) and Netherlands (Kapstaad/Batavia). The only ‘lock’ in Portuguese hands was Malaca, and it was one merely in name and in the context of the modern commerce in the empire, as Malaca could easily be replaced with many other ports in the strait, like Johor or even a fishing town like Singapore. This lead to commercial lanes which not only were very long during wartime, but susceptible to interception like it had occurred during the Nightmare at Sea.

Critics of this concern argued that European maritime law made any attempt to repeat the period where Portugal held Mare Clausum over certain seas to be folly and provocative. Critics of these critics argued that not maintaining critical ports spread out among powers was staying vulnerable to a future where perhaps one of the proponents of those maritime laws would simply bring back the concept in a highly hypocritical fashion after stealing the ports it needed for it.

With sea-based transportation still being by far the most efficient way of moving cargo, however, it was unlikely that this would change. Some theorized that Portugal should invest in the opposite direction; moving interests away from Africa and into the South Pacific, where a route to Nova Zelândia awaited. This, however, was a breach of the Treaty of Tordesillas, a point of agreement between Lisbon and Madrid that was still going strong between the two despite being ignored by virtually everyone else and prevented invasions based on colonial disputes (outside the Brazilian border).

Maintaining a limited, narrow-minded approach to maritime imperialism ran the risk of Portugal neglecting one of the two southern corners of its triangular empire; Brazil or the Africa-Asia colonial collective. Because of this, establishing new ports in Malaca and New Zealand had been critical, as it helped establish a round-the-world connection between the territories. Brazil was looking westwards not only to just its immediate borders with Spanish colonies, but also the Southern Pacific, where East Timor and North Island were located.

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With imperial possessions now maintaining a full around-the-world link and growing increasingly complex, the dynamics of imperialism in Portugal began to change and focus more on the central ring of commerce

The imperial organism thus ceased to be triangular and began to take a ring-like shape, with the metropolitan involvement in colonial affairs growing increasingly irrelevant. Brazil, Africa, Goa, Timor and finally New Zealand formed a perfect path of commerce along almost the entire equator and so politics began to evolve into a schism that threatened to alienate the metropolitan cog from the rest of the machinery. Exchange of goods was simply far more efficient along the ring line, as it connected a majority of the internal markets with a much smaller total travel interval (even if counting the new South Pacific lane).

Only Brazil and Angola maintained direct networks with Lisbon due to the shared ocean, making Luanda and Rio de Janeiro the only two capitals inside the empire in permanent natural direct contact with every one of their sister territories. This was a contrast to Britain, Spain and France, for example, all which had North American possessions, especially Canada, with which to balance the direction of the arteries with. Imperialism was therefore gradually being divided in twain in Portugal, with Lisbon being at the apex of an Atlantic Empire triangle and Rio de Janeiro being the jewel of a Southern Hemisphere (including Goa) Empire ring. With the Brazilian capital being the common city between the two, the importance of Lisbon as the imperial center in the distant future became in danger.

This even affected the development of new territories; Ponta d’Albuquerque was the center of North Island only in name, appointment and proximity to other possessions, as far more development was coursing into Bahia Nova in Tauranga from the Brazilian South Atlantic route (eventually Bracara-Beatriz and Nova Coimbra would surpass the two and Nova Lisboa, near the strait between the two islands, would become the new capital).

Thus, it seemed that the trend of the imperial gravity center shifting from Portugal to Brazil was continuing despite the mini-population-boom in the Metropolis between 1763 and 1783. It became more and more common for Brazilian elites, rather than Portuguese ones, to spearhead efforts of exploration, military leadership, decision making and business creation in Asia and Africa. This perhaps was a blessing in disguise, since it meant the Brazilians had a vested interest in the stability of the joint power, but also threatened the motherland status quo. How this situation would evolve would only unfold in the early 19th century, though.



[1] See Section: Death of Pombal – Decline of ‘Pombalism’.
[2] See Section: King and Country (1783) – Demographics & Culture – 1783 Josephine Census & The 20-year-Mini-Boom.
[3] See Section: King and Country (1783) – Philosophy, Religion & Ideology – Anglicanism, Germanism, Frenchism, Dutchism and Lusitanism.
[4] iOTL Portuguese India population in 1800 was approx. 210,000.
[5] Portuguese 19th century Philosopher, Author and Politician 1826 publication “Observation on the Birth of 1st Worldwide Empire”


With this post we have finalized the 1783 review. We wanted to provide a balanced overview that showed both the progress the country/empire had made since a virtual nobody was cast onto the largest stage the country could of provided. The individual did more than any king or commoner could of dreamed , he gave the Portuguese an empire they could be proud and that was establishing its place in the competitive imperialists' game, competing against countries much bigger than itself by redefining what it meant to be Portuguese and who could sit at the table. The country faces great challenges ahead while at same time has momentum on its side in the next phase of it existence; the post Pombal era.

Questions/ Comments???


Join us on January 24 ,2021 as we start posting the 1983-1799 Post Pombal Era.

 
Brazil may be powerful, but at best it is first among peers. The existence of Goa balances the scales. The rest of the territories (including Portugal) could form a small third block.

PS: A more developed Portugal would maintain a population similar or somewhat larger than the Netherlands (fewer people migrate to the colonies). Let's assume 17 million to 25 million at the most.

If Portugal includes Galicia and the Canary Islands, the population can easily be increased by another 5 - 7 million.
If Portugal includes the north and northwest coast of Morocco (the provinces of Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima, Rabat-Salé-Kenitra, Casablanca-Settat) it could easily increase its population by 10 - 14 million.

Due to Morocco's proximity to Portugal, the lands would become part of Portugal (specifically part of the Kingdom of Algarves, but it is only a kingdom in name)

Finally, a Portugal developed with Galicia, the Canary Islands and part of Morocco could reach 32 - 46 million inhabitants. This makes Portugal (by itself) a medium but important power in Europe. At the same time, a larger population would give Portugal representation in a "Confederation", because ten million is less population than Sao Paulo (It is preferable not to vote, when Portugal is so insignificant)

PS2: If a developed Portugal (with Galicia and the Canary Islands) were to annex Morocco in its entirety (and integrate the population), Portugal would have a total population of 60 - 65 million, which could put Portugal on a par with France or Great Britain (in terms of population). Of course, Portugal can annex overseas islands (such as Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe), but apart from the islands it is more difficult to annex the rest (far from Portugal and it is not an island).

PS3: London is still the second largest financial center in the world, it means that the size of the country and its population are not decisive. Lisbon could be the most powerful financial center within the Portuguese confederation, it does not necessarily have to be in Brazil or Goa.

PS4: Annexing Morocco gives access to its farmland, Morocco could be the granary of Portugal. Useful in case of war.
 
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Sorry for delay in responding, you present some very good insight and information.

The Portuguese have responded to a manpower deficiency by drastically changing the manner in which it trains, equips and manufacture its products.

Like is many areas the Portuguese started way behind the other countries and decided that bold moves were required. iOTL and iTTL Count of Lippe started the Portuguese down the path of modernization with proper officer training programs, modern warfare, coastal defenses. iTTL his vision and recommendations were not wasted and ignored but enhanced and enacted.

As the Portuguese armed forces continue to grow and modernize they will eventually be in a position that when Spain / France come against it they should have many advantages over less organized and well led adversaries.

what impact the Portuguese will have on the rest of Europe we not sure, it will depend on each country acceptance and ability to change. Also if they would accept the changes especially if they come from Portuguese. Some would study the Portuguese while others might reject anything the Portuguese simply for whom they are and their animosity towards them.

So if we apply Lanchester's laws the Portuguese could respond with less troops but due to combinations of factors (as indicated above defeat a larger enemy. We have already seen some of this as the Portuguese professional troops and professional troops with better weapons have overcome larger adversaries in Africa and India. This leads us to another factor in Portuguese favor. Like the British iOTL who had many officers gaining valuable experience in India and elsewhere in the world prior to the Napoleonic wars the Portuguese are in similar experience with both the empire and military benefiting from the ongoing conflicts in the world. Both troops and officers are gaining valuable experience that will be valuable later on.
I'm sorry to say, but much of this is rather irrelevant to my point, and is in any case redundant because you've already said it as part of the TL. I know that the Portuguese army has improved qualitatively, through both reforms and battle experience, but it's not hard to improve from absolute garbage, and there is very little chance it could exceed in quality, beyond a couple of minor gimmicks like rocket artillery, the army of Napoleon at its peak, filled by the largest country in Europe next to Russia, sculpted by the radical reforms of a historic military genius, and forged over years of almost constant fighting against all of the other Great Powers. And, as is my point, it is much larger than the army of Portugal, even more so when you add the Spanish Army to Napoleon's side, at a moment in military history where raw numbers are mattering more than ever before. We've seen in the sections detailing land wars in South America, Africa, and India of the Portuguese improvements directly leading to a capacity to exploit the tactical mistakes of their battlefield opponents, after which was simply the matter of taking and holding ground until their opponent is forced by circumstance (like a neighbour exploiting their sudden vulnerability) to submit to peace. But you don't win against Napoleon's army, certainly not against the man himself, with tricks and flukes. You win with strategy and lots of warm bodies, everything else, past the assurance of respectable levels of soldier quality, is window dressing. I did describe a few tricks that might be suggested by applying the Laws, but they are absolutely useless if they are not used as part of a wider strategy, which should be: 1. Reduce quantitative inferiority as much as possible, even if it strains every financial muscle in the nation to breaking point. 2. No matter the apparent stakes for doing so, absolutely refuse pitched battle against superior or even comparable-sized armies, only attack, if ever, with clearly superior numbers (France has numbers it can afford to lose if a battle turns into a mutual slog, Portugal doesn't). and 3. Divide the French army in Iberia as much as possible in service of Point 2. Either the Portuguese civil and military leadership come to understand this by being mindful of how war with Napoleonic France will be different from past wars, or they learn it with a painful battlefield defeat, their own Cannae which forces them to acknowledge that they can only avoid being conquered through long and hard sacrifice and effort. I refuse to believe that there won't be a significant faction in Portugal which, baulking at the inconceivable costs necessary for victory, will try to convince everyone that Portugal's victory against France in the Three-Year War proves that the country is mostly secure as it is. If the timeline doesn't prove them wrong via Portugal getting its arse kicked in the opening rounds of the war, then you need to justify why everyone adopts the needed consensus before such a disaster happens.
 
Well there is a lot of logic in your statement but countries weren’t led or governed using logic. Nationalism, grievances and anger clouded many of decisions. So we will see how Portuguese-Moroccan relationship plays out. Major future post in future. All I can say
In Chess, is there a difference between a victory gained by taking advantage of an opponent who blunders away their position and pieces, and a victory gained by creative and calculated forethinking which seals the fate of that opponent regardless of if they blunder or if they play well or even excellently? On one hand, there is no difference; a win is a win, and to be sure it's much more plausible for any random game to belong to the former category. But it's the latter kind of game which tends to go into the history books, it's that kind of game which Chess fans look back to and appreciate as being beautiful. I think most people reading this TL are not just reading it to watch Portugal "win the game", they're reading it to watch beautiful chess.
 
Going from right to left, the political beliefs beginning in the 1780s were listed as followed:
Good description of the political landscape of Portugal.
Interesting to see most are centrist: how will all this change with the Industrial Revolution? I bet there would be more left-wingers (factory workers and accrued urbanisation) and that the right-wing will be less traditionalist and more pro-business (much like the difference in France between the Legitimists, former Ultra-Royalists, and the Orleanists, or the evolution of the Tory party, from anti-imperialist and protectionist to free trade).

Maintaining a limited, narrow-minded approach to maritime imperialism ran the risk of Portugal neglecting one of the two southern corners of its triangular empire; Brazil or the Africa-Asia colonial collective. Because of this, establishing new ports in Malaca and New Zealand had been critical, as it helped establish a round-the-world connection between the territories. Brazil was looking westwards not only to just its immediate borders with Spanish colonies, but also the Southern Pacific, where East Timor and North Island were located.
This road will create much iocal center of trade, which could centralize trade, become in the long term ecoonomic places, and link it to this Colonial Ring. It might also create more links between colonies.
 
Interesting Update...it reflects the changes of the TL rather well and does lead to questions of how the 19th Century will go in Portugal. Could you provide an estimate on the numbers or percentages of each faction just to have a better idea?
 

Lusitania

Donor
It's reminding me more and more of the Dual Monarchy.
Well Lisbon will have its work cut out trying to convince everyone that they empire belongs to all not just Lisbon and that the concerns in the various regions are important. It has enacted some policies and laws that have provided them the first tools for them to develop and be part of empire and not be colonists. But more things will need to be done. More in future.

Brazil may be powerful, but at best it is first among peers. The existence of Goa balances the scales. The rest of the territories (including Portugal) could form a small third block.

PS: A more developed Portugal would maintain a population similar or somewhat larger than the Netherlands (fewer people migrate to the colonies). Let's assume 17 million to 25 million at the most.

If Portugal includes Galicia and the Canary Islands, the population can easily be increased by another 5 - 7 million.
If Portugal includes the north and northwest coast of Morocco (the provinces of Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima, Rabat-Salé-Kenitra, Casablanca-Settat) it could easily increase its population by 10 - 14 million.

Due to Morocco's proximity to Portugal, the lands would become part of Portugal (specifically part of the Kingdom of Algarves, but it is only a kingdom in name)

Finally, a Portugal developed with Galicia, the Canary Islands and part of Morocco could reach 32 - 46 million inhabitants. This makes Portugal (by itself) a medium but important power in Europe. At the same time, a larger population would give Portugal representation in a "Confederation", because ten million is less population than Sao Paulo (It is preferable not to vote, when Portugal is so insignificant)

PS2: If a developed Portugal (with Galicia and the Canary Islands) were to annex Morocco in its entirety (and integrate the population), Portugal would have a total population of 60 - 65 million, which could put Portugal on a par with France or Great Britain (in terms of population). Of course, Portugal can annex overseas islands (such as Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe), but apart from the islands it is more difficult to annex the rest (far from Portugal and it is not an island).

PS3: London is still the second largest financial center in the world, it means that the size of the country and its population are not decisive. Lisbon could be the most powerful financial center within the Portuguese confederation, it does not necessarily have to be in Brazil or Goa.

PS4: Annexing Morocco gives access to its farmland, Morocco could be the granary of Portugal. Useful in case of war.

We are talking about two major things the balancing of the empire so that one region does not dominate the country. We could see several regions grow and develop with some being located in Africa. As you stipulated Metropolitan Portugal will need to expand and grown both economically and population and to do so some additional territory may need to be added. How that transpires and which territory is acquired and "integrated" will be both interesting and a challenge on its own.

As for centers, there will be several and both commercial, financial and industrial centers this will be due to both the dispersal factor in population and no one center having a clear advantage over the rest of country. Note: I am discussing late 18th and early 19th century situation. For at this moment it be inappropriate to discuss beyond that.

FYI I do like your scenarios about greater metropolitan Portugal just not willing to speculate or endorse any one in particular.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I'm sorry to say, but much of this is rather irrelevant to my point, and is in any case redundant because you've already said it as part of the TL. I know that the Portuguese army has improved qualitatively, through both reforms and battle experience, but it's not hard to improve from absolute garbage, and there is very little chance it could exceed in quality, beyond a couple of minor gimmicks like rocket artillery, the army of Napoleon at its peak, filled by the largest country in Europe next to Russia, sculpted by the radical reforms of a historic military genius, and forged over years of almost constant fighting against all of the other Great Powers. And, as is my point, it is much larger than the army of Portugal, even more so when you add the Spanish Army to Napoleon's side, at a moment in military history where raw numbers are mattering more than ever before. We've seen in the sections detailing land wars in South America, Africa, and India of the Portuguese improvements directly leading to a capacity to exploit the tactical mistakes of their battlefield opponents, after which was simply the matter of taking and holding ground until their opponent is forced by circumstance (like a neighbour exploiting their sudden vulnerability) to submit to peace. But you don't win against Napoleon's army, certainly not against the man himself, with tricks and flukes. You win with strategy and lots of warm bodies, everything else, past the assurance of respectable levels of soldier quality, is window dressing. I did describe a few tricks that might be suggested by applying the Laws, but they are absolutely useless if they are not used as part of a wider strategy, which should be: 1. Reduce quantitative inferiority as much as possible, even if it strains every financial muscle in the nation to breaking point. 2. No matter the apparent stakes for doing so, absolutely refuse pitched battle against superior or even comparable-sized armies, only attack, if ever, with clearly superior numbers (France has numbers it can afford to lose if a battle turns into a mutual slog, Portugal doesn't). and 3. Divide the French army in Iberia as much as possible in service of Point 2. Either the Portuguese civil and military leadership come to understand this by being mindful of how war with Napoleonic France will be different from past wars, or they learn it with a painful battlefield defeat, their own Cannae which forces them to acknowledge that they can only avoid being conquered through long and hard sacrifice and effort. I refuse to believe that there won't be a significant faction in Portugal which, baulking at the inconceivable costs necessary for victory, will try to convince everyone that Portugal's victory against France in the Three-Year War proves that the country is mostly secure as it is. If the timeline doesn't prove them wrong via Portugal getting its arse kicked in the opening rounds of the war, then you need to justify why everyone adopts the needed consensus before such a disaster happens.
You bring up many valid points about Napoleon and the French, as you have mentioned the French do have numbers that iOTL the Portuguese could not equal what will the Portuguese number be in early part of the 19th century when the first round of the Iberian Peninsula war be, I cannot (or will not divulge) there will be several things on the Portuguese side: i) IOTL Napoleon disregarded the need to supply his troops and instead they were expected to rely on the "generosity" of the local people they passed or occupied. We can expect the same attitude and strategy which did two things force the occupying forces to disperse over large area since the generosity of the locals was ery limited and all major engagements were short term affairs since provisions were limited and troops need to "protect" the inhabitants. ii) the topography and lack of roads limited any army ability to wage war. When the French army arrived in Portugal in they were in despair and at end of their ropes, if the Portuguese royals had stayed and army attacked the rag tap army is desperate state, hungry and sick the French would of suffered a great defeat. How long that would of lasted is different matter. iTTL the Spanish have done nothing to copy the Portuguese royal roads and travelling in Spain with large numbers through hostile territory will both limit and hinder French forces. iv) Portuguese strategy, while we cannot get into the upcoming strategy at moment due to we still have over 20 years of history to cover and discuss, the Portuguese have already taken the first steps to strengthen their position by increasing their maneuverability, increase their industrial base, create a professional army and staff them with quality officers who are gaining field experience throughout the empire, build stronger navy able to defend country from the sea and keep trade routes open, construction of a domestic arms industry, doubling/tripling of Metropolitan population, creation of an advanced communication network and the building strategic modern defensive forts (ongoing).

With all these in place the Portuguese and Iberian Peninsula will be completely different campaigns but Napoleon will still face similar or even stronger opponents all around him. Nothing the Portuguese have or will do will change the other theatres Napoleon faced (other than strengthen them but that story for other day). Therefore I wanted to finish by saying that any war against the French will be a war for the very survival of the country and the Portuguese will need to utilize every means in their repertoire to first stop the French advance, then push it back from its borders and ultimately lead the war back to French soil. No easy task and one that will tax the country to its max.
 
I'm sorry to say, but much of this is rather irrelevant to my point, and is in any case redundant because you've already said it as part of the TL. I know that the Portuguese army has improved qualitatively, through both reforms and battle experience, but it's not hard to improve from absolute garbage, and there is very little chance it could exceed in quality, beyond a couple of minor gimmicks like rocket artillery, the army of Napoleon at its peak, filled by the largest country in Europe next to Russia, sculpted by the radical reforms of a historic military genius, and forged over years of almost constant fighting against all of the other Great Powers. And, as is my point, it is much larger than the army of Portugal, even more so when you add the Spanish Army to Napoleon's side, at a moment in military history where raw numbers are mattering more than ever before. We've seen in the sections detailing land wars in South America, Africa, and India of the Portuguese improvements directly leading to a capacity to exploit the tactical mistakes of their battlefield opponents, after which was simply the matter of taking and holding ground until their opponent is forced by circumstance (like a neighbour exploiting their sudden vulnerability) to submit to peace. But you don't win against Napoleon's army, certainly not against the man himself, with tricks and flukes. You win with strategy and lots of warm bodies, everything else, past the assurance of respectable levels of soldier quality, is window dressing. I did describe a few tricks that might be suggested by applying the Laws, but they are absolutely useless if they are not used as part of a wider strategy, which should be: 1. Reduce quantitative inferiority as much as possible, even if it strains every financial muscle in the nation to breaking point. 2. No matter the apparent stakes for doing so, absolutely refuse pitched battle against superior or even comparable-sized armies, only attack, if ever, with clearly superior numbers (France has numbers it can afford to lose if a battle turns into a mutual slog, Portugal doesn't). and 3. Divide the French army in Iberia as much as possible in service of Point 2. Either the Portuguese civil and military leadership come to understand this by being mindful of how war with Napoleonic France will be different from past wars, or they learn it with a painful battlefield defeat, their own Cannae which forces them to acknowledge that they can only avoid being conquered through long and hard sacrifice and effort. I refuse to believe that there won't be a significant faction in Portugal which, baulking at the inconceivable costs necessary for victory, will try to convince everyone that Portugal's victory against France in the Three-Year War proves that the country is mostly secure as it is. If the timeline doesn't prove them wrong via Portugal getting its arse kicked in the opening rounds of the war, then you need to justify why everyone adopts the needed consensus before such a disaster happens.
I agree with this for the most part.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I agree with this for the most part.
Yes and the difficulty in answering how the Portuguese will do in a war that will start in 20 years is very difficult or impossible to answer. What we can answer is what were the limitations and conditions of the campaigns and war at the time and speculate how Portuguese would react to them (tactically)

what shape the country be in and what forces the Portuguese have in such “hypothetical war” is not something we can discuss now. What we have tried to do is move the Portuguese to a position both economically, militarily, politically, and diplomatically that it will have different options than iotl.

how would a Portugal with potentially 6-8 million living in metropolitan area , an economy that might be 2x larger and empire that could be much stronger and powerful in 1805 compared to 1780 react and what it could do? Well we need to stick around and find out.
 
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Lusitania

Donor
Good description of the political landscape of Portugal.
Interesting to see most are centrist: how will all this change with the Industrial Revolution? I bet there would be more left-wingers (factory workers and accrued urbanisation) and that the right-wing will be less traditionalist and more pro-business (much like the difference in France between the Legitimists, former Ultra-Royalists, and the Orleanists, or the evolution of the Tory party, from anti-imperialist and protectionist to free trade).
Yes what we are seeing in Portugal is the begging game of different political thinking that is being expressed. While differences in political thinking have always existed the changes in political landscape and openness of government to allow such expressions to be expressed and not suppressed will allow for the formation of parties and greater demand for people to have a say in how the country be governed, which ultimately with the right guidance and support lead to an elected parliament and constitutional government. But that for future discussions what we have now is the growth in political thought.
This road will create much iocal center of trade, which could centralize trade, become in the long term ecoonomic places, and link it to this Colonial Ring. It might also create more links between colonies.
Correct, with several major economic center throughout empire each acting independent but also linked it makes the empire stronger and trade between different parts of the empire possible with Lisbon being involved thus increase the growth of empire and make people in different regions feel they have stake in empire and ability to influence it.
 
If Portugal TTL population rebounced to pre-earthquake levels in the last quarter of 18th century, and remain stable and prosperous enough to enter in the first industrial revolution, it may get the necessary manpower to retain and manage an Empire even bigger in the 19th century even if won't reach British, French, German or even Italian demographic levels, while sending enough colonists in its main colonies. Probably could even surpass Spain during 19th century even without Galicia... But sure, with Galicia and Morocco (post Napoleonic age?) assured it would be more easier.

Nonetheless, I can see the dual Portuguese-Brazilian monarchic equation the only possible way to keep the Lusitanian Empire a first rate power. Also because, if the flux of internal trade favours more Brazil than Portugal, an early industrial revolution started in the motherland could easily spread in the American colony and in a game of thumbs Brazil will prevail, so, yes Lisbon had to make all the possible to retain Rio de Janeiro into an union, whetever becoming a dominion or exploit a two nations, a throne - hence the Bragantine dynasty has to stand as long as possible. If Portugal parliamentarism succeeds in the 19th century, it might. Also monarchies are always cooler than republics.
 

Lusitania

Donor
If Portugal TTL population rebounded to pre-earthquake levels in the last quarter of 18th century, and remain stable and prosperous enough to enter in the first industrial revolution, it may get the necessary manpower to retain and manage an Empire even bigger in the 19th century even if won't reach British, French, German or even Italian demographic levels, while sending enough colonists in its main colonies. Probably could even surpass Spain during 19th century even without Galicia... But sure, with Galicia and Morocco (post Napoleonic age?) assured it would be more easier.

Nonetheless, I can see the dual Portuguese-Brazilian monarchic equation the only possible way to keep the Lusitanian Empire a first rate power. Also because, if the flux of internal trade favours more Brazil than Portugal, an early industrial revolution started in the motherland could easily spread in the American colony and in a game of thumbs Brazil will prevail, so, yes Lisbon had to make all the possible to retain Rio de Janeiro into an union, whatever becoming a dominion or exploit a two nations, a throne - hence the Bragantine dynasty has to stand as long as possible. If Portugal parliamentarism succeeds in the 19th century, it might. Also monarchies are always cooler than republics.
So we do have a Metropolitan Portugal with a population almost twice as big as iOTL, this as discussed was due to health initiatives, birth of industry and expanded agricultural production, the population also benefited from emigration from Europe as well as non-Europeans being brought to supplement labor shortage. Therefore we do have the basis for Metropolitan Portugal population to keep growing and at same time provide settlers to its colonies. Now a few additional areas of Iberian Peninsula and Morocco would enhance that ability.

You are right about Portugal needing Brazil and also Portuguese India to challenge the other 1sr rate empires in the 19th century. Just as the population of Metropolitan Portugal has grown so too has Brazil's and due to its geography and size the empire's population and future political control will move towards Brazil. What we could see is a larger Metropolitan Portugal, integrated Portuguese India will dilute brazil's power. If other areas such as Africa, East Asia, New Zealand also grow accordingly Brazil will be the largest part of the empire but not be overwhelming. Note: We sometimes talk about Brazil as though it is a single entity but as the region grows and develops each province is developing its own identity and at times have little in common with other provinces in Brazil. So we will need to see how the region and for that matter other parts of the empire including Metropolitan Portugal.
 
Growth of the Empire

Lusitania

Donor
AldEQzm.png


Rebirth of an Empire

Growth of the Empire
The 3rd book "Growth of the Empire (1783-1799)" coincides with the 1st half of the reign of Joseph II after the death of Pombal. The main sections of book 3 are as follows:
  • Growth of Empire (1783 - 1799)
    • The Mid Josephine Era (1783 - 1799)
    • Struggling Capitalism, Technology & Neoclassicism
    • Factory System
    • 1780 Proto-Economic Theories
    • Lusitanian Neoclassicism
    • Challenges of the Age
    • Portugal & the Patriottentijd (1784 - 1787)
    • To be expanded....
 
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