What if Napoleon had lived to age 85-90

[Remington 2.0]

What if Napoleon Bonaparte had somehow lived still the old age of 85-90 years old with full mental capabilities ?
Let's say he stay in shape and avoids caching any of the diseases or mental issues that cause his death in OTL or was assassinated as some people believed

 

[Mountain]

Would that butterfly the return of the French empire under his relative Napoleon III in 1852?

 

[Atterdag]

Would that butterfly the return of the French empire under his relative Napoleon III in 1852?

Even if it doesn’t it’d probably affect Franco-British relations once N3 takes power. As far as I understand there was an attempt on both the British and French side of improving mutual relations, so I wonder if the Brits wouldn’t let the old man go at last.

That is unless he manages to escape before that, which is fully likely. He probably can’t return to Europe but he might go to the Americas.

 

[Plundenoru]

What if Napoleon Bonaparte had somehow lived still the old age of 85-90 years old with full mental capabilities ?
Let's say he stay in shape and avoids caching any of the diseases or mental issues that cause his death in OTL or was assassinated as some people believed

Possibly he could move to the US as his brother Joseph had been living there for a while.

Would that butterfly the return of the French empire under his relative Napoleon III in 1852?

I don't think they would give him too much weight considering he would be in his 80s in 1852

 

[LNSS]

Maybe he accepts the crown of Mexico when Mexico was offering it to whoever wanted it.

 

[Lusitania]

The possibility of any person during the 19th century living past 60 was 1 in a million if not higher.

 

[Sicarius]

The possibility of any person during the 19th century living past 60 was 1 in a million if not higher.

Wellington lived to 83. Metternich 86. Lafayette 76. George III 81. It was not at all uncommon for wealthy and powerful people.

 

[redjirachi]

He would have words of advice and criticism for Napoelon III. If his nephew can get his direct support, it might help his cause

 

[Silver01]

there is this crazy rumor that san martin wanted to make napoleon king of peru in 1821 but he died if said rumors have a hint of truth to them then i dont think he would accept being king of the country IMO.

 

[mial42]

The possibility of any person during the 19th century living past 60 was 1 in a million if not higher.

What? In 1890, the life expectancy of white females in the US was almost exactly sixty if they lived to 10 years. Even in 1850 it was 57.2. In 1850, most white men who lived to twenty reached sixty (albeit barely). And this is averages! Well-off people with significantly better nutrition, healthcare, and environment, and less manual labor, would live longer.

 

[Atterdag]

The possibility of any person during the 19th century living past 60 was 1 in a million if not higher.

What were the odds of a person rising from minor nobility all the way to the rank of Emperor?

 

[Fletch]

That is unless he manages to escape before that, which is fully likely.

This is just totally untrue.

St. Helena is over 1,000 miles from the nearest landmass, Africa. In terms of topography, it is almost entirely surrounded by rugged cliffs with few safe landing spots, which were being kept constant guard, as was Napoleon by a garrison of British soldiers.

Further to this, it wasn't on the shipping lanes, so any foreign ship noticed approaching the island would be treated with suspicion.

Now even if a man in his fifties-eighties did manage to either somehow get past a garrison of soldiers at the few exit points or scale a hundred feet of volcanic cliff face, there was a further obstacle. From fear of escape, a further garrison was placed on Accession Island, between St. Helena and Europe.

So, unless Napoleon was an SAS Commando style Action Man, there was no way he was escaping.

St. Helena was chosen for a reason. If Elba was jumping a small gorge, St. Helena was jumping the Grand Canyon. With weights attached to you.

 

[Atterdag]

This is just totally untrue.

I mean it’s a hypothetical scenario in a hypothetical scenario, literally anything I can say about it is untrue.

But just about anything can happen in 30 years. Including security being softened, or getting lazy, or N making friends with someone inside his guard force and then smuggling him out. It’s not like I’m saying it’s a guaranteed or that it’d be easy, but stranger things have happened. Though I did say likely when I probably should’ve said “possible”.

 

[Fletch]

I mean it’s a hypothetical scenario in a hypothetical scenario, literally anything I can say about it is untrue.

But just about anything can happen in 30 years. Including security being softened, or getting lazy, or N making friends with someone inside his guard force and then smuggling him out. It’s not like I’m saying it’s a guaranteed or that it’d be easy, but stranger things have happened. Though I did say likely when I probably should’ve said “possible”.

The gripe I had was with the word likely. It would extremely unlikely, even if security was loosened. He would need to make connections with both the guards and the crew of a Royal Navy supply ship. And even then, evade the rest of the Royal Navy at a time of British Naval Supremacy when there is a garrison on the only nearby landmass stationed there in case he does escape.

Saying it's likely is a bit like saying Al Qaeda prisoners are likely to escape from Guantanamo. The only way I can see him getting out is if a deal was done between the French and British governments.

This begs the question why it would be in the interests of either, but as you said, it is over a period of decades so anything is possible.

 

[33k7]

in all likelihood he returns to France sometime in 1852 to 1853 by this point he's 84 and probably isn't going to become emperor again he's just going to live in Paris.

Marshal of France is probably the title given to him is he giving any control over the military maybe but it will probably be double check by his nephew. Napoleon was good at Logistics (yes even with the invasion of Russia he did make it to Moscow as the Russians burned everything in the Custer side to the ground.)so maybe if he's allowed to improve the French logistic system or at least lay the groundwork for a better supplied and faster mobilizing French army. The franco-prussian war might be a lot different

I wonder if the Crimean War in this scenario Napoleon the first might advise Napoleon the third not to meddle with Russia and focus on building up the French military.

on a side note you can bet that Napoleon the seconds body is resumed and brought to France so by the time Napoleon dies sometime in 1859 you can bet he is buried next to his son.

 

[funnyhat]

I would agree that he almost certainly does not get off the island unless the French government agrees to accept him. That will never happen under the Bourbons. Louis-Philippe? Uncertain. Maybe he would offer to take him in (under house arrest in France).

Louis Napoléon would certainly agree to it though, and by that point, the British would probably accept.

 

[jjstraub4]

The possibility of any person during the 19th century living past 60 was 1 in a million if not higher.

This Is super wrong. The biggest reason for low life expectancy in olden days is childhood disease/infant mortality. If you made it past early childhood you chances of making it to 60 were not that much worse than they were until very recently. There would have been many 80+ year old people around.

 

[Osman Aga]

in all likelihood he returns to France sometime in 1852 to 1853 by this point he's 84 and probably isn't going to become emperor again he's just going to live in Paris.

Marshal of France is probably the title given to him is he giving any control over the military maybe but it will probably be double check by his nephew. Napoleon was good at Logistics (yes even with the invasion of Russia he did make it to Moscow as the Russians burned everything in the Custer side to the ground.)so maybe if he's allowed to improve the French logistic system or at least lay the groundwork for a better supplied and faster mobilizing French army. The franco-prussian war might be a lot different

I wonder if the Crimean War in this scenario Napoleon the first might advise Napoleon the third not to meddle with Russia and focus on building up the French military.

on a side note you can bet that Napoleon the seconds body is resumed and brought to France so by the time Napoleon dies sometime in 1859 you can bet he is buried next to his son.

No France in the Crimean War means no Crimean War. France pressured it, the Ottomans acted because of French backing and it led to the occupation of the Danubian Principalities. Without that, the whole issue about the Church in the Holy Land would likely be followed in a pro-Russian manner.

 

[Lusitania]

This Is super wrong. The biggest reason for low life expectancy in olden days is childhood disease/infant mortality. If you made it past early childhood you chances of making it to 60 were not that much worse than they were until very recently. There would have been many 80+ year old people around.

Sorry but if we look at our society today we find that there is a much greater number of people who are over 60. To say that it the same is completely wrong when we factor health, environment and nutrition.

We simply have to look at life expectancy which slowly increased to now in the 70+ (western world).
FYI: when western world brought in old age pensions in the middle of the 20th century most used age 65 as retirement age. What is not known was that life expectancy at the time was 63.

 

[mial42]

Sorry but if we look at our society today we find that there is a much greater number of people who are over 60. To say that it the same is completely wrong when we factor health, environment and nutrition.

We simply have to look at life expectancy which slowly increased to now in the 70+ (western world).
FYI: when western world brought in old age pensions in the middle of the 20th century most used age 65 as retirement age. What is not known was that life expectancy at the time was 63.

There's a huge difference between "life expectancies were lower in the 19th century and there are more old people today" (which is true) and this:

The possibility of any person during the 19th century living past 60 was 1 in a million if not higher.

...which is completely and utterly false, as the US life expectancies I posted earlier in the thread show.