Egypt + Western Levant gains independence during the (1768–1774) Russo-Turkish War, Impact on the rest of the Empire

[walmart]

Say Abu al-Dhahab remains loyal to Ali Bey al-Kabir and Egypt + Western Levant successfully breakaway from the Ottoman empire during the 1768–1774) Russo-Turkish War.

So What would be impact on the Ottoman Empire with the loss of Egypt and the Western Levant.

Would this led to increased rebellions in Ottoman empire .

Russo-Turkish War (1768–1774) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ali Bey al-Kabir - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Abu al-Dhahab - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

@John7755 يوحنا
@Osman Aga

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

Say Abu al-Dhahab remains loyal to Ali Bey al-Kabir and Egypt + Western Levant successfully breakaway from the Ottoman empire during the 1768–1774) Russo-Turkish War.

So What would be impact on the Ottoman Empire with the loss of Egypt and the Western Levant.

Would this led to increased rebellions in Ottoman empire .

Russo-Turkish War (1768–1774) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ali Bey al-Kabir - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Abu al-Dhahab - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What exactly do you mean by western Levant ? I’m going to say that would lead to the ottoman to start modernizing and reform earlier and stronger than OTL . I’m more interested in the PoD consequence in Egypt

 

[walmart]

What exactly do you mean by western Levant ?

I was thinking something around the Mamluk or Muhammad Ali borders

 

[ike225]

If those regions gain independence or rise up in revolt, the Orlov Revolt might succeed as well, due to Ottoman troops being to spread out. Leading to an independent Greece much earlier than OTL

 

[Osman Aga]

Say Abu al-Dhahab remains loyal to Ali Bey al-Kabir and Egypt + Western Levant successfully breakaway from the Ottoman empire during the 1768–1774) Russo-Turkish War.

So What would be impact on the Ottoman Empire with the loss of Egypt and the Western Levant.

Would this led to increased rebellions in Ottoman empire .

Russo-Turkish War (1768–1774) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ali Bey al-Kabir - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Abu al-Dhahab - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Will comment tomorrow

 

[raharris1973]

I guess this characterizes Iraq as "eastern Levant"?

 

[walmart]

I guess this characterizes Iraq as "eastern Levant"?

Yup

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

Yup

If so I think it would probably be better to just say Levant or western Mashrik / Fertile Crescent I was confused when you say western Levant because I thinked you meaned something like Palestine or specifically the coast of the Levant

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

Will comment tomorrow

?? I’m interested in your answer

 

[Osman Aga]

?? I’m interested in your answer

Lol I forgot about this. I will answer when I return from shopping.

 

[Osman Aga]

Say Abu al-Dhahab remains loyal to Ali Bey al-Kabir and Egypt + Western Levant successfully breakaway from the Ottoman empire during the 1768–1774) Russo-Turkish War.

So What would be impact on the Ottoman Empire with the loss of Egypt and the Western Levant.

Would this led to increased rebellions in Ottoman empire .

Russo-Turkish War (1768–1774) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ali Bey al-Kabir - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Abu al-Dhahab - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Mamluks are hardly a threat for the Ottoman military even in the late 18th century. Their revolt would not last to think that it would you need an earthquake that kills everyone in Istanbul including the Imperial Dynasty.

Theoretically speaking... the Ottomans will cut their losses in 1773 against Russia and avoid the remainder of the war (and thus thus the disaster in Kozludzha against Russia). The Ottomans will smash through the Levant while trying to bribe some of the Mamluk Emirs to betray the rebels in exchange of becoming Governor. The loss of Egypt, let alone the Levant is unacceptable for the Ottomans and they will not give it up without an actual attempt to restore it. A revolt in Morea (as OTL) + a revolt by the Janissaries is the best bet but not given. The latter depends on if they aren't paid or the Sultan wants to get rid of them. If the Ottoman attempts to break the rebellion lasts too long the Zands may try to invade Southern Iraq again (as OTL). Actual conquest might be unlikely but it could cause quite the trouble during a rebellion.

This brings me to the question how the Mamluk Rebels get the Levant when their rule was reduced to Egypt after 1517 and later formed in Iraq. Assuming they do I don't realistically see more success than Palestine and maybe Mount Lebanon and Damascus. Aleppo was a hotspot of the Janissary Corps and the Mamluks cannot really convince them to give up Northern Syria.