How does that follow? Even if you end up with a larger population of ethnic Japanese, why would you get any significant influx to Korea? That peninsula would still be a substantially poorer area than metropolitan Japan, with an abundance of unskilled labour and a rising class of trained native professionals and a reputation as being home to people who are surely not Japanese. What would be the incentive for more Japanese to move there? If anything, you would be much more likely to see more net migration from Korea to Japan.
If World War 2 doesn't happen, how long would Japan have held onto Korea and Taiwan?
- Thread starter mauriceq
- Start date
That was always the Japanese colonial plan. They even had plans to settle Manchuria with Japanese because they believed at the time that the population would grow far too large for the home islands to hold. I believe that Imperial Japan had already sent about 2 million settlers to Manchukuo by the end of the empire. They managed that in only around a decade or so. I don't see why they wouldn't use that same plan for their other colonies.
Manchuria was a prosperous territory with an abundance of land and resources, undergoing rapid industrialization. There was a niche for Japanese migrants. A Korea with a superabundance of labour is not so attractive.
I cannot find Japanese colonization numbers for Korea at the end of the Japanese Empire, but I have found that in 1910 (the year Korea was annexed) there were already 170,000 Japanese people in Korea. I would assume that number would only expand dramatically over the next three decades of Japanese rule. Something like 95% of all factories in Korea were Japanese owned and something like 50% of all arable farmland in Korea was Japanese owned by the start of the second world war. As Japan's population continues to skyrocket, do you expect migration to Korea to slow down? Mass colonization was always the plan for Imperial Japan, thats what they were going to do.
Only made up 3% of the Korean population in 1940
Demographics of the Empire of Japan - Wikipedia
Lots of good points made above, but I think that statement of "If World War 2 doesn't happen" needs more of a POD to properly debate the potential butterflies. If it a WW2 where European War never happens, or does it also include the Asia-Pacific War?
Some of the possible variations that would impact:
-What is happening in Europe?
-What is happening in the Soviet Union?
-What is happening in the USA?
There are so many different interpretations of what could happen, that someone could equally argue 1960 as 2060 as end of Japanese Empire, depending on the context.
This isn't intended as an attack on the question, because I think it is a good discussion! Sorry if it sounded unduly harsh!
IIRC, they only managed to settle about 500,000 (the 2 million figure might include military personnel), will have to dig up the article.
Such an agreement was made in the past, where Japan surrendered Sakhalin (karafuto) in exchange for the whole of the Kuril islands (chishima), but southern Sakhalin was taken after the Russo Japanese war.
Thus, it makes zero sense for Japan to trade off the Kuril islands.
It looks like the European colonisation of Africa: mainly civil servants, soldiers, planters, small industrialists and missionaries (OK, they weren't effective at propagating Shintoism).
The highlighted bits are only true if you round off. As mentioned above, there were ethnic minorities in Korea in 1910.
Even if you ignore any Koreans that had migrated elsewhere by 1910*, there were (and still are) also ethnic Koreans in neighbouring parts of Manchuria.
*Such as the Korean labourers in Hawaii, or the Pacific coast of the mainland US.
Korean Americans - Wikipedia
So the main concern is no Japanese invasion of China, no invasion of Manchuria either since that would lead to an overall war with China when it reunities. I am not sure about Europe, as I think Nazis would inevitable start wars once in power. Perhaps preventing both Japan and Germany from becoming fascist would be necessary but not sure the POD. I do know though both had some veneer of democracy that failed, so those could be more successful ITL. The USA might still be isolationist regarding Europe and only intervene in its own hemisphere, and not sure about the USSR. I don't think Stalin would pick a battle with the WAllies in this case, as he waited for the UK and France to be distracted before invading Finland, Eastern Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and parts of Romania IRL.
Barry Bull
Donor
Imperial Japanese Government viewed mass rural population migration as a solution to the crisis in the rural areas of the Home Islands.
https://apjjf.org/-Mori-Takemaro/1810/article.html
Korea is actually quite attractive as a destination for migration, thought less than Manchuria.
The Japanese also free up the Korean land by population displacements and force nationalization.
https://web.stanford.edu/class/e297a/Japan, Korea and Colonialism.doc
https://www.asj.upd.edu.ph/mediabox...e-colonialism-korean-economic-development.pdf
@Pelranius
If Japan did avoid the Second World War, that requires the military factons which took the US into it did not take power. You would have a civilian government, one that would be at least somewhat democratic.
Democracies can do terrible things, but a Generalplan Ost is not likely. This is especially the case since Japan seems to have aimed for the assimilation of the Koreans; their extermination or reduction to a slave caste, IIRC, was not brought up before the Pacific War, if it was then.
I think that the rising numbers of Japanese in Korea has to be seen in the context of rapid growth migration both ways past Tsushima: The numbers of migrants from Japan to Korea grew at least much as the migration of Koreans to Japan.
It is also noteworthy that the number of Japanese in Manchukuo grew very rapidly, quickly exceeding the numbers of Japanese in Korea. This is despite the fact that Manchukuo was under Japanese control for a much shorter period of time than Korea, and despite the fact that the existence of Japanese Manchukuo was challenged—by its subjects, by neighbours—to an extent that Korea was not.
Arguing that the rapid growth of the Japanese population means that there would have had to have been extensive Japanese immigration to Korea overlooks the need for there to be economic incentives. How would most potential Japanese migrants obviously better themselves by moving to an economically poorer territory? That Manchukuo boomed so much despite its problems shows how there was a lack of incentives for very substantial Japanese immigration to Korea.
Democracies can do terrible things, but a Generalplan Ost is not likely. This is especially the case since Japan seems to have aimed for the assimilation of the Koreans; their extermination or reduction to a slave caste, IIRC, was not brought up before the Pacific War, if it was then.
I think that the rising numbers of Japanese in Korea has to be seen in the context of rapid growth migration both ways past Tsushima: The numbers of migrants from Japan to Korea grew at least much as the migration of Koreans to Japan.
It is also noteworthy that the number of Japanese in Manchukuo grew very rapidly, quickly exceeding the numbers of Japanese in Korea. This is despite the fact that Manchukuo was under Japanese control for a much shorter period of time than Korea, and despite the fact that the existence of Japanese Manchukuo was challenged—by its subjects, by neighbours—to an extent that Korea was not.
Arguing that the rapid growth of the Japanese population means that there would have had to have been extensive Japanese immigration to Korea overlooks the need for there to be economic incentives. How would most potential Japanese migrants obviously better themselves by moving to an economically poorer territory? That Manchukuo boomed so much despite its problems shows how there was a lack of incentives for very substantial Japanese immigration to Korea.
How was the structure of land ownership? Was it yeomen, latifundists or absentee landowners? And how would have the Korean natives reacted to this creation of a Japanese Ascendency like in Ireland, born out of the spoliation of the local peasants? Would Korea get enough industry to occupy natives and potential settlers?
A poorer tetrritory might have some prospectives of growth, but maybe there weren't enough space in Korea to settle.
The problem Japanese migration to Korea creating a "Shinto Ulster" was that eventually as Japanese industrialization speeds up, the Japanese migrant population would decrease (assuming that the Japanese colonists receive superior education and employment preferences compared to the natives) as the Japanese go back to the Home Islands for superior economic opportunities (or the urban areas of Korea).
I do not doubt that the Japanese government of the time would have loved millions of Japanese to move to Korea. I just think that expectation was unlikely; Korea was not that attractive.
What is more likely, I think, is Korean migration to Japan. That had already begun on a large scale before the Second World War, and would have accelerated if Korea shared a country with Japan.
And what about migration to other colonies? After all, some Koreans still are living in the former Karafuto, and some Korean industrialists were investing in Manchuria.
Quite. There were all sorts of potential networks that had only started up before the Pacific War. Agreed that Manchukuo could have become big.
Depending on the government's policy. If the Japanese government had started its 皇民化とも言う or Japanization as in the OTL, most Korean and Taiwanese would identify themselves as Japanese like residents of Okinawa.
Otherwise, Japan would have given up these colonies in late 60s or early 70s to avoid heavy military casualties and high costs.
Otherwise, Japan would have given up these colonies in late 60s or early 70s to avoid heavy military casualties and high costs.