Hello all! I'm working on a new TL where World War One doesn't start in 1914, due to Germany not issuing the Blank Cheque to A-H and eventually a conference is called between Germany, A-H, Russia, and Serbia to settle the matter. What are some of the effects of this? Off the top of my head I'm thinking that Germany continues to build up its naval strength until eventually becoming Britain's equal, Russia industrializing and becoming a genuinely powerful nation by the mid-1920s, and I've heard that France was looking to demobilize its massive military to a purely defensive force. How would the European powers react to the collapse of China ITTL? Do they divide it up, and if so how? If not, what do they do instead? Most importantly, what is the most likely way WW1 does start ITTL (assuming that it does start at all)?
WI No WW1 in 1914?
- Thread starter RodgerThat
- Start date
Not a chance. Germany was in the process of pulling back from the naval arms race in 1914. The below list is the capital ships laid down in each year between 1910 and 1914. Germany would need to continue building at 1911 levels to continue to rival the British but instead their building fell. The German chancellor at the time feared Russian and French military spending and diverted funds towards the army. This led to a major fall in capital ship building allowing the British to pull ahead massively.
1910; 4BB;
1911 3BB 1BC;
1912 1BB 2BC;
1913 2BB 1BC;
1914 1BB
so Britain then would be the undisputed master of the sea in any future war with Germany?
Most likely.
It all depends on events though. A civil war in Ireland could see the British Government slash naval spending to the bone (for example). Or the Germans could seek to alter the naval balance of power by convincing the Japanese to break the Anglo Japanese alliance and instead ally with the Germans.
Without something major like that happening before a war we are much more likely to see the Royal Navy in a more dominant position compared to the Germans in a later ww1 than we saw in our timeline.
for Ireland, most of the Irish (except for lime a few diehard nationalists) were in favor of the Home Rule bill, and the only reason it wasn't passed was because World War One was a more pressing concern. Without this occuring I think Ireland is much more likely to separate peacefully from Britain or even remain a British dominion.
I could see Japan doing this in response to a further strengthening of ties between London and St. Petersburg, causing Japan to decide that the Germans will help them against Russia more than the British will.
this could very easily cause a much stronger blockade and a quicker defeat of Germany, especially if combined with a more-industrialized Russia
We are more likely to get a civil war based on the "unionists" fighting to avoid home rule than the nationalists trying to get independence if ww1 doesn't happen.
wasn't part of the bill that Ireland would be split between Ireland and Northern Ireland so as to avoid that?
The unionists saw the temporary exclusion from partition to be a temporary matter and planned to protest home rule because eventually they were to be added to it.
Who knows what would have happened.
Whew, lot to unpack here... it is indeed fascinating to conjecture what might have happened had the diplomats, generals, and certain leaders not been so infernally stupid in August 1914...
But no, Germany never hoped to equal the RN at sea. That ship had sailed (sorry!
) long before... not only would it be a major provocation and less of a blatant excuse for certain English sabre-rattlers, but it would be godawful expensive, far more so than the Reichstag would bear, and frankly beyond the Empire's shipbuilding capacity at the time. Not to mention that it would be essentially confined to the Baltic as the world's largest fleet-in-being... one would be able to stand on, say, Bornholm and not be able to spit without hitting a battlecruiser
Russia would indeed be much more powerful and effective a military power after around 1917, thanks to French loans, and that would've probably thrown the fear of God into everyone - including the UK and Japan. But could they hold together long enough? My guess is that the social issues that started coming to the fore in 1904-06 would continue, with or without a disastrous war, but would just take a few years longer to reach boiling point...
France? Not so sure... a massive draw-down seems unlikely so long as the German Heer remains the strongest force in continental Europe.
What happens in the Far East without all the major powers distracted by a massive war is a real crap shoot... Presumably Japan (which probably would've issued its Twenty-One Demands or something similar regardless of what was happening in Europe) would continue to press its interest in China, which would run afoul of the UK, Russia, essentially all the European powers with interests in China plus the US... all eyes might would be on Manchuria and the surrounding lands rather than the Balkans as the most likely "powder keg"...
But no, Germany never hoped to equal the RN at sea. That ship had sailed (sorry!
) long before... not only would it be a major provocation and less of a blatant excuse for certain English sabre-rattlers, but it would be godawful expensive, far more so than the Reichstag would bear, and frankly beyond the Empire's shipbuilding capacity at the time. Not to mention that it would be essentially confined to the Baltic as the world's largest fleet-in-being... one would be able to stand on, say, Bornholm and not be able to spit without hitting a battlecruiser Russia would indeed be much more powerful and effective a military power after around 1917, thanks to French loans, and that would've probably thrown the fear of God into everyone - including the UK and Japan. But could they hold together long enough? My guess is that the social issues that started coming to the fore in 1904-06 would continue, with or without a disastrous war, but would just take a few years longer to reach boiling point...
France? Not so sure... a massive draw-down seems unlikely so long as the German Heer remains the strongest force in continental Europe.
What happens in the Far East without all the major powers distracted by a massive war is a real crap shoot... Presumably Japan (which probably would've issued its Twenty-One Demands or something similar regardless of what was happening in Europe) would continue to press its interest in China, which would run afoul of the UK, Russia, essentially all the European powers with interests in China plus the US... all eyes might would be on Manchuria and the surrounding lands rather than the Balkans as the most likely "powder keg"...
Archduke Franz Ferdinand is assassinated so there's no trigger to the powder keg of Europe.
things that will most likely happen without a war sparking in my personal opinion if you delay the war into the 1920s it's not going to happen many of the powers of Europe will be going into a time of rebellion and political change by the mid or late 1930s we're probably looking at a good chance of a World War happening
German and British Empire divided Portuguese Empire amongst themselves. most likely souring French and British relations.
though I believe it's more likely the British and Ireland separate peacefully there is still a chance things go horribly in Ireland.
by 1916 or 1918 I believe Germany will give up on its massive Navy and focus on the Army again because of the increasing power of the Russian Empire.
by the 1920s believe the alliance system will shift the British will pull out of the Triple Entente attempting to maintain the Power Balance in Europe. probably being replaced by Italy
Austria-Hungary will still be around and might be more stable than we think but it's not going to Grow in Power that much Germany will be shopping around for another Ally the Ottomans will probably be their only choice.
Triple Entente will be the Russian Empire French Republic and the kingdom of Italy
Central Powers will be the German Empire Austria-Hungary and Ottoman Empire
with the British and japan playing kingmaker forcing both sides to play nice
problems that could possibly happen in the 1920s or 30s
Russia being bogged down in a large-scale Revolt I see the monarchy being able to squash any Rebellion but being forced to become more democratic
the Ottoman Empire being under minded by Foreign Nations trying to destabilise it leading to a large-scale Arab and Mesopotamian revolt being taken advantage of by the European powers
China being further divided by the European Empires and the Japanese
a good chance at Austria-Hungary collapses in the early to mid 1930s possibly leading to what we would call the first World War cuz by Italy Germany Serbia Romania and a big maybe Russia attempting to attempting to seize territory from the collapse Nation
things that will most likely happen without a war sparking in my personal opinion if you delay the war into the 1920s it's not going to happen many of the powers of Europe will be going into a time of rebellion and political change by the mid or late 1930s we're probably looking at a good chance of a World War happening
German and British Empire divided Portuguese Empire amongst themselves. most likely souring French and British relations.
though I believe it's more likely the British and Ireland separate peacefully there is still a chance things go horribly in Ireland.
by 1916 or 1918 I believe Germany will give up on its massive Navy and focus on the Army again because of the increasing power of the Russian Empire.
by the 1920s believe the alliance system will shift the British will pull out of the Triple Entente attempting to maintain the Power Balance in Europe. probably being replaced by Italy
Austria-Hungary will still be around and might be more stable than we think but it's not going to Grow in Power that much Germany will be shopping around for another Ally the Ottomans will probably be their only choice.
Triple Entente will be the Russian Empire French Republic and the kingdom of Italy
Central Powers will be the German Empire Austria-Hungary and Ottoman Empire
with the British and japan playing kingmaker forcing both sides to play nice
problems that could possibly happen in the 1920s or 30s
Russia being bogged down in a large-scale Revolt I see the monarchy being able to squash any Rebellion but being forced to become more democratic
the Ottoman Empire being under minded by Foreign Nations trying to destabilise it leading to a large-scale Arab and Mesopotamian revolt being taken advantage of by the European powers
China being further divided by the European Empires and the Japanese
a good chance at Austria-Hungary collapses in the early to mid 1930s possibly leading to what we would call the first World War cuz by Italy Germany Serbia Romania and a big maybe Russia attempting to attempting to seize territory from the collapse Nation
Given that even with the build up to WW1 the UK was still thoroughly engaged with trying to even draw up where the "border" was meant to be, I wouldn't make the assumption that violence would be prevented on the island.
would this mean perhaps Britain and Russia going to war with Japan over issues in China, while Germany backs up Japan, causing France to declare war on Germany, and the whole world order collapsing into a war?
Hmmm... I've been trying to think of ways to get Japan into the "CP Camp" for a while now, but not so sure about the UK's involvement.... I think that Japan would go out of their way to reassure the Brits (possibly not successfully) that their interests in China do not conflict with the UK's interests in China - so as not to upset the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. The UK may realize that their interests do NOT coincide with Russia's interest.
France will of course support the Russians... which could lead to bad things (for the French, at least) in Indochina well before 1941....
Fun thing is, if you butterfly away the onset of World War in 1914, the field really becomes wide open....
The Naval Race wasn't over or 'given up'. It was at 8:5 and accepted by both sides as such. Germany still had the Naval Law which requires 41 Battleships under 20 years of age. Germany had successfully pegged the RN's lead from 2 down to 1.6.
The Anglo-Japanese Treaty was to keep Japan focused in Northern Asia leaving Southern Asia as a British sphere. Germany can't make a better deal for Japan.
Ireland will be permanently split but without the permanent animosity between the two. They could probably exist as two Dominions within the Empire with the option to unify if they ever chose to - like NZ and Australia.
By various measures the war knocked about 15 years off European development and growth.
The Anglo-Japanese Treaty was to keep Japan focused in Northern Asia leaving Southern Asia as a British sphere. Germany can't make a better deal for Japan.
Ireland will be permanently split but without the permanent animosity between the two. They could probably exist as two Dominions within the Empire with the option to unify if they ever chose to - like NZ and Australia.
By various measures the war knocked about 15 years off European development and growth.
Germany could assure Japan control over all of Asia in return for assistance against Russia (and Britain)
does this mean Europe is slightly more advanced ITTL? and is this technological, social, political, or economic development?
These are basically the same thing, as political, social and Economic developments are all tied together
Japan would never try to piss off all the western countries at once, especially before 1919. Before the WW1 they were trying to be accepted as an equal partner by the great western Powers. They understood this very well in 1905 when France, the UK and Germany forced them to give up on some of their claims in chinaWhew, lot to unpack here... it is indeed fascinating to conjecture what might have happened had the diplomats, generals, and certain leaders not been so infernally stupid in August 1914...
But no, Germany never hoped to equal the RN at sea. That ship had sailed (sorry!
Russia would indeed be much more powerful and effective a military power after around 1917, thanks to French loans, and that would've probably thrown the fear of God into everyone - including the UK and Japan. But could they hold together long enough? My guess is that the social issues that started coming to the fore in 1904-06 would continue, with or without a disastrous war, but would just take a few years longer to reach boiling point...
France? Not so sure... a massive draw-down seems unlikely so long as the German Heer remains the strongest force in continental Europe.
What happens in the Far East without all the major powers distracted by a massive war is a real crap shoot... Presumably Japan (which probably would've issued its Twenty-One Demands or something similar regardless of what was happening in Europe) would continue to press its interest in China, which would run afoul of the UK, Russia, essentially all the European powers with interests in China plus the US... all eyes might would be on Manchuria and the surrounding lands rather than the Balkans as the most likely "powder keg"...
Agreed, particularly as regards the UK....
It's not that they would be trying, per se... but the Twenty-one Demands managed to piss off everyone in OTL, despite Japan having already joined in on the Entente side in earnest...