Depends on the price they want to pay really, militarily of course they could win if they were willing to use enough force, however in OTL the force used and some of the reprisals hurt them a lot both with the US and among the Dominions who were in contact with the Irish rebels and were trying to get London to agree a ceasefire (also the actions of units like the Black and Tans was pissing of the King as well).Would it be possible for Britain to win the Irish war of independence and keep Ireland as part of the UK.
What would be the impact.
Could the UK retain Ireland to the present day .
Without becoming a tyrannical nation the best circumstance for the British is to end up giving home rule (becomes Dominion status) and have an independent Dominion of Ireland.Would it be possible for Britain to win the Irish war of independence and keep Ireland as part of the UK.
What would be the impact.
Could the UK retain Ireland to the present day .
The IRA of the day was very decentralised, with most operating at townland level, at the very most county level, as you can see from the different tactics and capabilities that were used at the time, losing Collins would certainly hit Dublin operations and impact some wider aspects but the War would continue without him.Michael Collins, founder of “The Squad” and a major thorn in the side of British intelligence was actually caught at some point and simply let go because they didn’t have a picture of him and had no idea who they had in their hands.
I think he barely escaped capture on several occasions. How much success you want to put in the hands of one man is entirely up to your own story elements.
Given how Unions actively and pacifically acting against Crown Forces in Ireland and faced action from the UK Government, I'd agree. Of course added to this, if the UK is committed to either continuous action in Ireland or even just maintaining control afterwards, how much more unstable might the UK be in terms of the 20s?Trying to hold Ireland long term dramatically changes the UK. It would be a much more repressive country and the Scottish and Welsh nationalists would be come down on almost as hard as the Irish, as would any form of political dissent. Not a country I'd want to live in.
Would this look like otl’s troubles or something like the PKK-Turkish conflictIf Britain chooses to fight and win the war of independence and suppress all dissent in Ireland they could of course do so but Ireland would still be a hotbed of dissent for decades to come and Britian would have to garrison it heavily.
More than the OTLs Troubles anyway, remember by the end of the War UK control over huge chunks of Ireland was utterly gone, forces like the Black and Tans were brought in because the RIC just couldn't sustain operations. If you have even more aggressive British actions the RICand DMP forces will likely need permanent replacement. It's likely in such a case that the Irish Regiments would at best be "suspect", needing other forces deployed.Would this look like otl’s troubles or something like the PKK-Turkish conflict
...Republicanism remains a minority belief. After the war swiftly grant Home Rule (perhaps separately to the North and South of Ireland. Eventually Southern Ireland will progress to being a Dominion...
You'd need a POD well before the War of Independence to get that outcome however, by the OP a divided Ireland is already "precooked" into any solution that the UK will allow.Victory - a long term Victory is slightly subjective
IMO long term Victory for the UK = Peace in Ireland
Anything else is a failure
My first thoughts around keeping Ireland as part of the UK is that the people of Ireland would have to 'want to'
So sending in the troops is not going to achieve this - and the Easter rising executions was clumsy and short sighted.
Better to have imprisoned those men (and as seems to happen in these sorts of things later pardon them and involve them in finding a solution)
It would have to involve ensuring that the Irish people - all of them - enjoyed the same rights and as far as possible standard of living as the rest of the 'union'
Now this may end up as a form of self rule or dominion statues whatever ends up working the best - but my biggest issue with the OTL resolution was the partition of Ireland.
It should have remained as one entity/nation (like England, Scotland and Wales are) regardless of remaining as part of the United kingdom or not and not been split.
Personally while I would like to see Ireland to have remained a part of the UK the most important thing (for both teh UK and Ireland) was to have kept Ireland as a single nation and none of this draw lines on a map divide and conquer bullshit.
You'd need a POD well before the War of Independence to get that outcome however, by the OP a divided Ireland is already "precooked" into any solution that the UK will allow.
Well if you can manage to have the Reformation take in Ireland it would help.You'd need a POD well before the War of Independence to get that outcome however, by the OP a divided Ireland is already "precooked" into any solution that the UK will allow.
I’m sure some other reason would be found.Well if you can manage to have the Reformation take in Ireland it would help.
Wouldn't the War continue much longer without Collins? I know little about the political situation of the time, but wasn't Collins much more realistic in dealing with the British in negotiations? Also his vision for the country was not the rural one favoured by DeValera?The IRA of the day was very decentralised, with most operating at townland level, at the very most county level, as you can see from the different tactics and capabilities that were used at the time, losing Collins would certainly hit Dublin operations and impact some wider aspects but the War would continue without him.
It would depend on a lot of factors, would British Intelligence be able to function better in Dublin leading to more infiltration? Would there be more pressure from Dev for large scale attacks like that at the Customs House that was a massive failure for the IRA (not too mention does Dev go/stay in the US fundraising?)There's plenty of POD's depending on when/how Collins could have been killed and what shape the following Anglo-Irish talks might be.Wouldn't the War continue much longer without Collins? I know little about the political situation of the time, but wasn't Collins much more realistic in dealing with the British in negotiations? Also his vision for the country was not the rural one favoured by DeValera?