Germany could not win ww2?

Deleted member 1487

Assuming Germany took Moscow in 1941 and continued their onslaught successfully in 1942 would Stalin (or whoever was in charge) make a deal or would they retreat past the Urals and continue fighting?

Would a rump USSR with no European territory be able to effectively continue the war against a Germany that now controls virtually all of Europe?
Stalin probably wouldn't due to his paranoia about being couped and Hitler certainly wouldn't accept peace in victory. His goal was to fight an endless border conflict against the Soviets to maintain a hardened frontier population of German colonists (Wehrbauer). The Soviets basically could choose to continue fighting or retreat far enough to stay out of range. I doubt the average German colonist would be all that interested in continuing to attack and Hitler was planning to leave the Urals as the natural border between German Russia and Soviet Russia.

I doubt the Soviets would try to continue fighting if they could help it, they'd have WAY too much to do to survive besides fighting. They'd probably keep up the guerrilla war as much as possible, but avoid active fighting.

And the effects of Stalinism wouldn't have been so bad, if Trotsky had led the Soviet Union.
Not really disproving my point. If Hitler wasn't in charge, say through dying any number of ways that were barely avoided IOTL, you could have different policies in the east. It wasn't nearly as baked into the ideology as you think, it was baked into Hitler's views and sans Hitler different choices do become possible since Goering and others did push different ideas, but were shot down by Hitler.
 
they'd have WAY too much to do to survive besides fighting.
Can you elaborate on this?

Assuming Germany takes everything west of the Urals and the USSR is out of the war by early 1943 would the WAllies continue fighting or would they accept Germany as the ruler of continental Europe due to the massive casualties they’d face with no Red Army to bleed the Heer white?
 
Ultimately the war was won by Red Army manpower and American industrial production. Eliminate or delay either one and Hitler would survive. A lot have discussed various defeats of the Soviet Union so let me concentrate on the US. What if Hitler stood up in the Reichstag on December 10, 1941 and said "We peaceful Germans do not launch sneak attacks. We are not obligated to come to Japan's defense and we will not." Roosevelt would have faced overwhelming pressure to concentrate on defeating Japan. If Lend Lease continued at all it would have been at much lower levels. Roosevelt would have felt pressure to shift Navy ships to the Pacific; forcing the British and Canadians shoulder more of the convoy burden. Would this have been enough to allow Germany to defeat the Red Army?
 
Can you elaborate on this?

Assuming Germany takes everything west of the Urals and the USSR is out of the war by early 1943 would the WAllies continue fighting or would they accept Germany as the ruler of continental Europe due to the massive casualties they’d face with no Red Army to bleed the Heer white?

In this scenario a gift will be waiting for Germany in August 1945.
 
In this scenario a gift will be waiting for Germany in August 1945.
This has been discussed extensively in similar threads but a first generation nuclear weapon wouldn’t be a magic bullet against a Nazi Germany that controls everything from the Channel to the Urals.

With no USSR in the war and the numerous benefits that would come with only having to face the WAllies the German war machine would be much more powerful so any attempt to drop atomic bombs on European targets would be many times more difficult than dropping bombs on Japan in 1945 (the same country that stopped bothering to intercept single planes). The Reich would have much stronger air defenses and the Luftwaffe would be far more formidable with no Eastern Front and increased resources.

Even if the WAllies do manage to drop atomic bombs on Germany with no USSR after several intense and costly years of strategic bombing (which would also be much more difficult in this scenario) the war wouldn’t end magically overnight. Defeating a continental power would require an actual ground invasion like IOTL, take several years and cost millions of lives (the AANW TL is the best portrayal of this).

Hitler and the Nazi leadership didn’t surrender IOTL when Soviet troops were in Berlin firing 203mm howitzers into buildings at point blank range, numerous cities were destroyed, millions of German soldiers were dead or captured, millions of civilians were dead, starving, sick or displaced and most of Germany was occupied by enemy troops.

A few first generation atomic bombs wouldn’t change the minds of Hitler, Himmler, Goebbels etc in this scenario when they’ve accomplished their dreams of dominating Europe from France to the Urals and have an experienced, well armed and well trained military that’s still in mostly good shape.
 
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I think that the only conceivable scenario leading to Axis victory would be defeating the UK prior to attacking the USSR and certainly prior to declaring war on the USA. Even that is a heavy lift. The UK controlled a vast empire with enormous resources and manpower. As time went on, those resources were mobilized and it became harder and harder to defeat the UK alone.
 

Deleted member 96212

I feel like IOTL is actually best case scenario for axis.

Disagree. There are plenty of threads demonstrating that the Axis repeatedly missed opportunities or just got unlucky, either in a macro or micro sense. They did do exceptionally well, better than they should have honestly, but they absolutely could've improved upon OTL successes, avoided some OTL failures, and could've innovated in certain ways. Conversely, the Allies have plenty of room to fuck up more than OTL. I'm not saying it's a war winner, but the opportunities are there.
 
Ultimately the war was won by Red Army manpower and American industrial production. Eliminate or delay either one and Hitler would survive. A lot have discussed various defeats of the Soviet Union so let me concentrate on the US. What if Hitler stood up in the Reichstag on December 10, 1941 and said "We peaceful Germans do not launch sneak attacks. We are not obligated to come to Japan's defense and we will not." Roosevelt would have faced overwhelming pressure to concentrate on defeating Japan. If Lend Lease continued at all it would have been at much lower levels. Roosevelt would have felt pressure to shift Navy ships to the Pacific; forcing the British and Canadians shoulder more of the convoy burden. Would this have been enough to allow Germany to defeat the Red Army?
No-one in their right mind would believe Hitler on that. He has invaded several countries with sneakattacks, so no, it wouldn't make a big difference.
 
Going further east in 1942 if they hold Moscow wasn't a big challenge given that they'd hold the main rail hub of the USSR. The biggest problem with the 1942 offensive south was the dearth of rail lines, especially high capacity lines, to Stalingrad and into the Caucasus (plus of course the huge distances needed to be traveled, which were considerably further than from Moscow to the Gorki-Upper Volga region).

1). that assumes the Soviets don't wreck the Moscow rail hubs just like they wrecked the rail infrastructure in the west. It also assumes the soviets don't just wreck the lines coming out of the Moscow hub further down the tracks (Moscow hub is no use to the German's if it doesn't go anywhere).

2). Germany has still got a massive logistics problems, just from lack of resources. Plus unless every battle they then fight is right next to an (intact) railway line just having the trains doesn't help logistics as you still have to move stuff on from the trains. As you say "plus of course the huge distances". Similarly even if they capture an intact Moscow hub, and the rail system into the Russian interior from there is magically untouched, if they still don't have tracks to Moscow from their side it doesn't matter much. Basically for the resource strapped German forces you are talking about basically recreating the Russian railway system from scrap under constant sabotage efforts in the west and from Moscow eastwards likely red army pressure.

3). The amount of losses they had suffered just getting a few units close to Moscow (without taking it) were not long term sustainable, even if they take and hold Moscow without lots of losses, going further in just looks like 1942 and 1943 only worse because they'll be operating on even longer supply lines. Because the ridiculous thing is that bit of western Russia before Moscow, that huge bit of territory the scope of which just almost undid them by itself is small compared to what they'd now face. Remember the German thinking was if they got to Moscow the soviets would already be beaten because their armed forces would already be destroyed on the way to Moscow. They weren't ever planning on fighting hard past Moscow, because Moscow itself was going to be the victory lap.

4). Holding Moscow isn't as easy as just arriving there and popping a panzer hatch in red square. It's a massive city of millions of people just securing and holding the civilians will tie down huge numbers. They're going to fight and resist, the red army are going to counter attack.



You kind of can, Strasserist Nazis were a thing. Hitler just purged dissent within the party pre-war, but there were still Nazis who disagreed with policy in the East vis a vis the Russian people, but Hitler blocked all recommendations and efforts to be less brutal toward the Russians and even build up Vlasov's army, same with the UPA that they had allied with for a while.

You kind of can't, as you just pointed out these "nice" nazis" weren't given any room to do anything. so the mere fact that a few still existed post night of the long knives really doesn't mean anything. This also buys into the old myth that the German armed forces were morally opposed to killing millions of Russians, but were forced to by Hitler and the upper echelons i.e they just need an excuse or slight change at the top to not be a key part of all the killing. But the reality is German armed forces were told to and didn't offer much resistance to doing so after the various Fuhrer directives came down. There's also the point that "strasserist" (itself a pretty broad term especially after the purges when we're really just talking about a diverse and eclectic group of individuals) might mean not quite as bad as Hitler but that still leave plenty of room for them to be bad in their own right and in terms of Russia.

Vlasovs army of Russian liberation is late war anyway at which point it's just a desperate German move to find more warm bodies between them and the red army because they're losing. The joke is the 'Russian liberation army' was even at it's for lack of better term height, dwarfed by the numbers of Ostenheiten anyway. The Ostenheiten who had been mainly used for rear echelon security (and all that entails in occupied Russia) so really the opposite of the Germans being nice. Of course the irony is come 1944 they where mutinying more and more because the Germans are losing.

Really this idea that there was some grand white Russian army just waiting unutilised by the nazis is a myth.
 
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There was a thread a while ago about Germans entering Dunkirk before the British, cutting them the way to the sea.
If that happened, there'd a chance the Brits may surrender.
 
This has been discussed extensively in similar threads but a first generation nuclear weapon wouldn’t be a magic bullet against a Nazi Germany that controls everything from the Channel to the Urals.

With no USSR in the war and the numerous benefits that would come with only having to face the WAllies the German war machine would be much more powerful so any attempt to drop atomic bombs on European targets would be many times more difficult than dropping bombs on Japan in 1945 (the same country that stopped bothering to intercept single planes). The Reich would have much stronger air defenses and the Luftwaffe would be far more formidable with no Eastern Front and increased resources.

Even if the WAllies do manage to drop atomic bombs on Germany with no USSR after several intense and costly years of strategic bombing (which would also be much more difficult in this scenario) the war wouldn’t end magically overnight. Defeating a continental power would require an actual ground invasion like IOTL, take several years and cost millions of lives (the AANW TL is the best portrayal of this).

Hitler and the Nazi leadership didn’t surrender IOTL when Soviet troops were in Berlin firing 203mm howitzers into buildings at point blank range, numerous cities were destroyed, millions of German soldiers were dead or captured, millions of civilians were dead, starving, sick or displaced and most of Germany was occupied by enemy troops.

A few first generation atomic bombs wouldn’t change the minds of Hitler, Himmler, Goebbels etc in this scenario when they’ve accomplished their dreams of dominating Europe from France to the Urals and have an experienced, well armed and well trained military that’s still in mostly good shape.

They likely won't surrender after the first couple drop no (well unless we get lucky and take out Hitler and the top guys), but a concerted bombing campaign that includes nuclear weapons will just collapse the Reich eventually. And leave it such state that actually an invasion wouldn't be that insurmountably hard because the ability of German armed forces to resist will be greatly reduced even compared to 1944-5 OTL. Because the German army still need's manpower, equipment and machines and logistics to operate

Point being once it's going on for a few moths it won't just be a few 1st generation nuclear bombs.

It would be a truly horrible ATL though

Plus of course with the usual 'Oh extra resources if they control everything up to the Urals' ignores the fact that actually controlling everything up to the Urals will also take a lot of resources. And it also assumes the retreating Russians have left all those resources just hanging around or in a quickly utilisable form.

I also never get the extra resources argument either, even if just more AA and LW are freed up from fighting in the east it not's like you are going to out produce the wallies anyway. the USA especially wasn't even close to max capacity when it came to production. Also the wallies have far greater resources to develop new stuff to adapt to a changed ATL than the axis does.
 
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Even if they lost the BEF why would Britain surrender?
IOTL the option was considered after the fall of France. The argument made is that, with the entirety of the BEF captured, while a surrender wouldn't be the necessary option, there'd be room for it.
 

pls don't ban me

Monthly Donor
Germany could try invading Turkey which could potentially increase pressure on Britain, but might not work at all and leaves Germany incredibly overextended and exposed to Soviet attacks.
Pretty sure that if Germany invades the USSR and Britain has signed peace, Turkey will instantly scream: "KOWABUNGA IT IS" and join the axis only to get for them the Azerbajan oil fields. if the USSR is going really bad, Iran might join as well jut to take the Kazakhistan region. Hitler won't have anything against it as he won't have to deal with the Muslim minorities after occupation
 
Disagree. There are plenty of threads demonstrating that the Axis repeatedly missed opportunities or just got unlucky, either in a macro or micro sense. They did do exceptionally well, better than they should have honestly, but they absolutely could've improved upon OTL successes, avoided some OTL failures, and could've innovated in certain ways. Conversely, the Allies have plenty of room to fuck up more than OTL. I'm not saying it's a war winner, but the opportunities are there.

Thing is that goes both ways, there's plenty of times the Allies could have done better or got luckier as well, and in fact there are plenty of times the Germans got lucky too.

It's the aggregate of all this that matters.

Also frankly a lot of those threads that are based on 'if they just zigged instead of zagged, bam dominoes all fall and German victory' (usually involving some key allied nation just looking for a excuse to give up), but a lot of them are based on at best faulty premises and usually ignore the macro in favour of the micro.
 
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IOTL the option was considered after the fall of France. The argument made is that, with the entirety of the BEF captured, while a surrender wouldn't be the necessary option, there'd be room for it.


But who considered it OTL, as in it being a realistic political move.
 
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I think that the only conceivable scenario leading to Axis victory would be defeating the UK prior to attacking the USSR and certainly prior to declaring war on the USA. Even that is a heavy lift. The UK controlled a vast empire with enormous resources and manpower. As time went on, those resources were mobilized and it became harder and harder to defeat the UK alone.

Exactly you fight one war at a time and you don't let yourself get surrounded.

Ideally for the Germans Britain bows out at some point in 1940 after the fall of France, but obviously this doesn't happen.

The big problem is the German plan then hinges on destroying all organised armed resistance in the USSR in 8-12 weeks, followed by a period of just mopping up over everything between Poland and the AA line as the Russian population meekly looks on and waits to starve/be massacred down to ideologically acceptable numbers and then dutifully produce for the master race.

Then go back for Britain
 
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But who considered it OTL, as in being realistic political move.
I'm no British politics expert, but I'm sure that Halifax was one of them, Chamberlain could have been convinced by worse conditions and, since he was the leader of the Conservative party (With an absolute majority in the Parliament.), he could have forced Churchill to step down.
Again, this is not to say that it would necessarily happen, just that it may have.
 
I'm no British politics expert, but I'm sure that Halifax was one of them, Chamberlain could have been convinced by worse conditions and, since he was the leader of the Conservative party (With an absolute majority in the Parliament.), he could have forced Churchill to step down.
Again, this is not to say that it would necessarily happen, just that it may have.

Only that plan was to go through then neutral Italy, while France is still fighting. OTL events will quickly scupper that plan, as Italy will not be neutral for long.
Also politically Chamberlain is a busted flush (unfairly in my opinion), he also had no illusions about Hitler and trusting him!
 
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I'm no British politics expert, but I'm sure that Halifax was one of them, Chamberlain could have been convinced by worse conditions and, since he was the leader of the Conservative party (With an absolute majority in the Parliament.), he could have forced Churchill to step down.
Again, this is not to say that it would necessarily happen, just that it may have.
Rule 1 , Wikipedia is not the best source. Hitler had proved his word was worthless repeatedly, Chamberlain/Halifax's position had been undermined massively. The Conservative Party might vote for someone other than Churchill, but it is not bowing out of the war. This is why Halifax , who Chamberlain would have wanted to be his successor did not even try and fight for the job.
 
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