I'm not sure about what to make of this one, but here it goes: In 1976, Art Agnos barely defeated Harvey Milk in a race for a seat in the California State Assembly by just 4,000 votes. Aside from the fact that he clearly wouldn't have been assassinated by Dan White, what would've happened to him?
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This is an interesting one. I think it's reasonable to think Milk stays in the assembly (as opposed to going to the Bd. of Supervisors). When you butterfly away the assassination, you have a few interesting points:
1. Feinstein had already lost the Mayoral election twice at that point, and it was believed she would back Quentin Kopp in a race for Mayor in 1979. I think you likely see Moscone run for reelection and win in '79, beating Kopp. Unclear what this does to Feinstein's career. Perhaps she makes a bid for the US House of Representatives. Perhaps she tries for the Assembly herself. Perhaps she gets out of politics altogether.
2. Assuming Moscone wins in 1979, the 1983 Mayoral election would be a great chance for Milk to make a play for the top job in San Fran. Assuming that the Moral Majority is happening around the same as OTL, it's hard to see him winning. However, 1983 is the same year Phillip Burton died - the Castro's (and much of SF's) congressman. He was replaced by his wife, Sala, who held the seat until her own death in 1987. This triggered a special election in 1987, which was, of course, won by none other than Nancy Pelosi. She only narrowly beat (which also fits into our thread here) Harry Britt, an openly gay SF Supervisor who replaced Milk. Now, there are a few questions: First, does Milk's presence in Sacramento make him more or less of a standard bearer for gay rights? I could see it going either way, right? He has the chance to be advocating on state issues, but the lack of hyper localization may distance him from the Castro community. It seems safe that if he remains "the face" of gay rights in elected politics, Harry Britt (or whoever represents the Castro) will defer to Milk in the primary. That puts Milk up against Nancy Pelosi, which leads to my third question: What's happened to Dianne Feinstein? If she's hovered around in local politics, this is also
her chance to get back into the game - running in a three-way primary that Milk almost certainly wins (though I'm less sure he wins if Feinstein isn't there to split Pelosi's vote with her). This makes him the first openly gay person to win a Congressional seat while out. (Gerry Studds was outed in 1983 and reelected in 1984, making him the first openly gay member of Congress to be reelected after outing).
If Milk gets to Congress, I see a few options...
• Run for Senate in 1992, assuming a special election. Without Feinstein, there is going to be a bitter primary. In a field of three, Milk has a good chance. In a field of four or more, I think my money's on him. He'd have to fight in the general, but I think he'd pull it off.
• Make a statement candidacy in the 1992 Democratic primaries. I could see Milk running a candidacy that resembles Jesse Jackson's in 1992, and he'd probably reassemble *some* of this coalition (though I imagine he will struggle with Black voters in the South while maintaining white liberal activists and some Black voters in the North), but obviously not come close to the nomination. Still, his presence could shake up the primary field.
• Simply choosing to serve in the House until he's ready to go. He was born in 1930, which means he would've been 85 at the time of Obergefell (and who knows how a longer life and more visible career would've impacted the marriage equality movement). It seems conceivable he'd hold the seat until 2000 or so. At which point, the seat becomes open - an interesting dynamic given that Pelosi has held it continuously for nearly 40 years.