I remember, Obama was a fresh start after Iraq war and ended the economic stagnation of the 2000s, could the Bush administration be worse than OTL.
DBWI: There was a recession in 2008/2009
- Thread starter kasumigenx
- Start date
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Have a house of cards of “investments” built, so that the barest whiff of a downturn in real estate causes the beginnings of a landslide?
And somehow the mega-insurance company AIG makes a good villain!
They’re only somewhat controversial in real life. Well, make them a lot more controversial in this ATL. And just like most recent recessions, some of the mid-wage jobs lost come back as low-wage jobs. And in a big recession have this be an even bigger effect, and Obama of course gets blamed big time!
And somehow the mega-insurance company AIG makes a good villain!
They’re only somewhat controversial in real life. Well, make them a lot more controversial in this ATL. And just like most recent recessions, some of the mid-wage jobs lost come back as low-wage jobs. And in a big recession have this be an even bigger effect, and Obama of course gets blamed big time!
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Obama could have more numbers in 2008 after the second term of Bush if there was a recession in 2008, IOTL people are tired of the warmongering of Bush IOTL and his party.Have a house of cards of “investments” built, so that the barest whiff of a downturn in real estate causes the beginnings of a landslide?
And somehow the mega-insurance company AIG makes a good villain!
They’re only somewhat controversial in real life. Well, make them a lot more controversial in this ATL. And just like most recent recessions, some of the mid-wage jobs lost come back as low-wage jobs. And in a big recession have this be an even bigger effect, and Obama of course gets blamed big time!
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Oh, yes, and swept into office with high hopes—
only to have these hopes dashed on the rocks of a real recession.
I don't think he can handle fixing a recession, the expectation would be so much for him.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
No one could. It seems to be almost built in that you only get partial job recovery, especially of the vital middle-income jobs.
Look, as it was, the 2011 recession was a mere pipsqueak. What was it, a 1/2 of a percentage point of loss of GDP?
But given a serious recession, Obama’s strong suit of being an aspirational leader plays to weakness, not strength.
Politics take longer to realign on national populist/elitist managerialist grounds than OTL. Probably get Kerry or Edwards and not Obama in 2008 for starters.
I can't see the grand bargain of the privatization of social security or sunsetting of medicare/medicaid in recessionary conditions.
I can't see the grand bargain of the privatization of social security or sunsetting of medicare/medicaid in recessionary conditions.
Except the 2011 recession was only in US and a minor recession had there been a major recession, I doubt Obama would have handled it.
And Trump might have won in 2016 or Mitt Romney would have won in 2012 had there been a major global recession in 2008-2009.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
I might even race ahead of you on this one. For example, you don’t need to work too hard to get me to quote economist Milton Friedman to the effect— If you look at it a certain way, the medical profession looks an awful much like a cartel.
I want people to be able to, through a series of regular job promotions, to move from nursing into doctoring, pretty much like any normal job. And I personally don’t find this all that radical an idea.
And yes, after Obama and Congress got “the Marketplace” with six very transparent companies plus a public option in 2009, Obama launched the Health Care Commission four years in 2013, and among their many recommendations to improve both quality and cost was greater autonomy for physician assistants and nurse practitioners. And in fact, many states have moved in this direction. It’s still nowhere within a country mile of what I’m talking about.
I’m quite a bit more anti-professional.
That’s not quite the right word, but I think you get what I mean. Perhaps similar to yourself, right?
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GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Ah, yes, the libertarian counter-factual.
Well, let me ask you, with driveless trucks a now reality in California, Texas, and I think at last count 23 total states, mainly western states, but also Virginia and Tennessee, at least on interstates, with drivers generally taking over in cities.
If we hadn’t started moving in the direction of Universal Income, with rolling Earned Income Credit for parents into it, and with the UK moving in be direction of “Universal Credit,” although I don’t understand this one as much,
Well, how would the libertarian approach have addressed the normal background erosion of middle-income jobs?
I make more than a million a month and have 19 passports plus multiple private planes. This is a problem for me how?
The Grand Bargain plus Obama's "America is for enterpreneurs" speech back in 2013 made me shift from Republican to Democrat. Finally we've got a party that knows their Ayn Rand. Nothing can go wrong most likely, and if it does? See what I said about the private planes.
The Grand Bargain plus Obama's "America is for enterpreneurs" speech back in 2013 made me shift from Republican to Democrat. Finally we've got a party that knows their Ayn Rand. Nothing can go wrong most likely, and if it does? See what I said about the private planes.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Would love to see a timeline in which Indiana is purpled up!
Maybe Obama could have won the state during his re-election in 2012 if he had gotten started earlier on immigration. As I remember, we began immigration reform in late ‘13, early ‘14, was it? And it was basically a guest worker program by any other name and a (slow!) path to citizenship.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Trump is a great wild card!
Yeah, plays off the American love affair with business men and women (even though none of them can change the fact that other countries have caught up with manufacturing). For example, we have the case of H. Ross Perot running in 1992 as an independent, all his well-publicized kookiness, dropping out of the race and then re-entering, become fixated on the idea that the Bush people were going to disrupt his daughter’s wedding, apparently he really was concerned about this, creative people often have their kooky side . . . and he still gets 19% of the vote ? ! ?
By all means, run this potential timeline. Maybe Trump enters the Democratic primary?
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GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
First off, I’m glad we’re still more of a democracy than we are a plutocracy.
Okay, you’re sitting pretty — and Congrats. So, I don’t think a purely self-interested argument will carry the day.
Well, how about if we pick a mid-sized group, such as guitar players, and build the case that a healthy and vibrant middle class just makes the world a more interesting place?
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Problem is, said "healthy and vibrant middle class" would vote for higher taxes. Higher taxes mean I can afford less cocaine so that's a no go.
Unpopular opinion here. America would have actually benefitted from a recession. It would have forced any contemporary administration to change its priorities and put less resources into the Middle Eastern sinkhole. If Iran had been left alone more resources would have remained for rebuilding Iraq instead of letting degenerate into what we saw in OTL. Russia probably wouldn't have dared to intervene in the post-Soviet republics for similar reasons, there would be too much work to be done at home to risk foreign interventions and sanctions. A recession could have completely derailed China's rise, meaning that we wouldn't be having a second cold war on the horizon. And of course a recession would have forced people to concentrate on more real problems in the 2010s and elect someone serious in 2016 instead of that total clown Trump.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Well, you need to stop that shit, man.
You know, I always thought if I become a rock star, there’s going to be two main rules— No cocaine, No private planes.
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No point in being rich without both, fam! Stack dat paper higher and higher! This is America, if you lie enough the sky is open to you!