What if US wins the Second Mexican War in TL-191 ?

[Worffan101]

A Communist CSA is interesting but less likely than a Communist USA. The reason for that is of course racism. Poor blacks and whites in the South were and are the majority and are in TL-191 but they never came close to uniting because of racism. The Radical Liberals never had very much white support in the CSA likely for the reason - it was felt they somehow supported black equality and rights with whites so a Communist CSA would have had the support of ever fewer whites and therefore not very likely ....

Given how the CSA actually worked, I can see poor whites splitting and backing a 1900s communist revolution. Meanwhile the USA reacts by suppressing the labor movement more.

That might make a neat modem day story actually. The "Democratic People's Republic of America" is the last major communist state on Earth, an authoritarian regime described in patronizing terms by Western newspapers and channels, while the USA is a mostly democratic but corrupt capitalist superpower with a perpetually festive labor movement.

 

[MaxGerke01]

Given how the CSA actually worked, I can see poor whites splitting and backing a 1900s communist revolution. Meanwhile the USA reacts by suppressing the labor movement more.

That might make a neat modem day story actually. The "Democratic People's Republic of America" is the last major communist state on Earth, an authoritarian regime described in patronizing terms by Western newspapers and channels, while the USA is a mostly democratic but corrupt capitalist superpower with a perpetually festive labor movement.

You mean splitting with the upper class whites ? Why would they do that? I know its in their own best interest and all of that but how would you get them to put aside their hatred of blacks in general and black equality in particular to make this possible ? In TL-191 poor whites had a perfect chance to side with blacks and overthrow the established order during the Red Rebellion and they didnt to put it mildly-what would the difference be here ?

 

[Worffan101]

You mean splitting with the upper class whites ? Why would they do that? I know its in their own best interest and all of that but how would you get them to put aside their hatred of blacks in general and black equality in particular to make this possible ? In TL--91 poor whites had a perfect chance to side with blacks and overthrow the established order during the Red Rebellion and they didnt to put it mildly-what would the difference be here ?

No, an internal split. Some pro racism, some willing to form common cause with slaves due to a non-functional economy and being sent to die multiple times in losing wars while rich planter heirs threw parties because they owned more than twenty other human beings.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

You mean splitting with the upper class whites ? Why would they do that? I know its in their own best interest and all of that but how would you get them to put aside their hatred of blacks in general and black equality in particular to make this possible ? In TL-191 poor whites had a perfect chance to side with blacks and overthrow the established order during the Red Rebellion and they didnt to put it mildly-what would the difference be here ?

No, an internal split. Some pro racism, some willing to form common cause with slaves due to a non-functional economy and being sent to die multiple times in losing wars while rich planter heirs threw parties because they owned more than twenty other human beings.

Indeed.

Heck, look at stuff like the Free State of Jones. Probably see that writ large.

 

[Michael B]

If the USA wins the Second Mexican War do they annex Sonora and Chihuahua or is Maximillian made to have them back? As it was already part of the CSA I would expect Cuba to be annexed, but the two Mexican territories?

And if Sonora and Chihuahua are annexed would that not be a causus belli for France supported by Britain? Cutting the USA down to size was a possible British foreign policy objective in the nineteenth century: better to deal with a rival sooner than later.

 

[MaxGerke01]

If the USA wins the Second Mexican War do they annex Sonora and Chihuahua or is Maximillian made to have them back? As it was already part of the CSA I would expect Cuba to be annexed, but the two Mexican territories?

And if Sonora and Chihuahua are annexed would that not be a causus belli for France supported by Britain? Cutting the USA down to size was a possible British foreign policy objective in the nineteenth century: better to deal with a rival sooner than later.

My guess would be they would not for the reasons you list and also probably because they wouldnt want to risk upsetting Germany for any reason at this point. Also it would make the US look like hypocrites and liars if they turned around and did what they said they were fighting a war to stop the CSA from doing. A war of conquest and expansion would have less high ground that a war to prevent expansion,

 

[MaxGerke01]

No, an internal split. Some pro racism, some willing to form common cause with slaves due to a non-functional economy and being sent to die multiple times in losing wars while rich planter heirs threw parties because they owned more than twenty other human beings.

Indeed.

Heck, look at stuff like the Free State of Jones. Probably see that writ large.

Well again this would amount to an ideal scenario or perfect storm.One could see this happening in certain cases but for it to happen frequently enough and across the whole CSA to allow for an overthrowing of the established order doesnt seem real likely. I could see it working maybe in the areas that had the fewest black people but in places with larger black populations like the so called black belt in the Deep South this just doesnt seem likely to have worked very often...

 

[Worffan101]

Well again this would amount to an ideal scenario or perfect storm.One could see this happening in certain cases but for it to happen frequently enough and across the whole CSA to allow for an overthrowing of the established order doesnt seem real likely. I could see it working maybe in the areas that had the fewest black people but in places with larger black populations like the so called black belt in the Deep South this just doesnt seem likely to have worked very often...

The CSA is something like 1/3 slaves and just exhausted itself getting its behind kicked in a major war against the USA in this scenario. There is no freaking way that it can realistically contain a communist uprising.

 

[Dave Howery]

If the USA wins the Second Mexican War do they annex Sonora and Chihuahua or is Maximillian made to have them back? As it was already part of the CSA I would expect Cuba to be annexed, but the two Mexican territories?

And if Sonora and Chihuahua are annexed would that not be a causus belli for France supported by Britain? Cutting the USA down to size was a possible British foreign policy objective in the nineteenth century: better to deal with a rival sooner than later.

some problems... if the two states are given back to Mexico, couldn't the whole crisis happen all over again sometime in the future? If the US occupies them, that pretty much squelches any chance the CSA has for a transcontinental railroad. As for Cuba... it would be pretty isolated from the rest of the US.. maybe the US would support any independence movements inside Cuba, if there are any.
As for France and Britain... assuming they aren't supporting the CSA directly in this scenario (about the only reasonable chance for a US victory), why do they care? They either aren't allied or simply don't care about the CSA. There is also the (probably not foreseen yet, but likely) boon that without UK/France participation in this war, the grudge the US has against them is likely to dissolve...

 

[MaxGerke01]

The CSA is something like 1/3 slaves and just exhausted itself getting its behind kicked in a major war against the USA in this scenario. There is no freaking way that it can realistically contain a communist uprising.

Well it did contain one in the process of getting its butt kicked during the Great War. But the question also has to be asked who is training and arming and feeding the slaves ? The CSA government would have lots of heavy weapons and tons of white volunteers to fight what would be perceived as a race war more than anything else. Not saying a slave army couldnt do damage but overthrowing the government without the support of the average white Confederate on the street seems a tall order....

 

[Worffan101]

Well it did contain one in the process of getting its butt kicked during the Great War. But the question also has to be asked who is training and arming and feeding the slaves ? The CSA government would have lots of heavy weapons and tons of white volunteers to fight what would be perceived as a race war more than anything else. Not saying a slave army couldnt do damage but overthrowing the government without the support of the average white Confederate on the street seems a tall order....

Yes, and that was pretty unrealistic.

See, the CSA in this situation just fought a total war against a massively superior power. There is no way that they could stop devastating levels of slaves running away, hiding in the swamps and forests, and getting training and supplies from US agents. They also just burned an entire generation of lower-class white youth on a war that they lost, humiliatingly, because the idiot aristocrat leadership most likely relied on elan and grand cavalry charges because they didn't have the industry for anything else.

This is the kind of situation where the lower class sharpens their knives. Plenty will fight for the CSA! But plenty more will tell the rich bastards who got their brothers and sons killed where to stuff it.